Are Worldwide Food Shortages Coming? Rising costs, lower crop yields.

[gosub]

Do tell

Floods in Pakistan don't help, neither does drought in China

 

[Bingoman]

Floods in Pakistan don't help, neither does drought in China

Oh ok didn't think about that?

 

[campanula]

I heard from a cousin of mine that they had to silage their entire corn crop. Basically, the drought made it impossible for them to grow a crop this year. It wasn't worth harvesting and had to be chopped up for animal feed. I checked to see what luck everyone else was having and it doesn't look good. Bloomberg noted that there is likely to be a corn shortage because yield levels are going to be lower than 2021.

US Crop Tour Stokes Fears of Looming Corn Shortage

Parched soils. Grasshopper infestations. Scorching heat. Hail damage. This year’s US corn crop has been put through the wringer -- and it shows.

www.bloomberg.com

This is going to make global famine even more likely, as the price of the corn will goes up.

Exactly so. The farmer next to me has extraction rights from the Yare river, but other fields have also had to silage the maize. Irrigated corn is around 5ft right now, but the unwatered corn is struggling to manage 15 inches, with negligible carb growth. Going to be a disaster for a lot of farmers here in the East (which is also the main agricultural area in the UK).

 

[Funky_monks]

Exactly so. The farmer next to me has extraction rights from the Yare river, but other fields have also had to silage the maize. Irrigated corn is around 5ft right now, but the unwatered corn is struggling to manage 15 inches, with negligible carb growth. Going to be a disaster for a lot of farmers here in the East (which is also the main agricultural area in the UK).

Maize?

Its not looking too bad over in the west, but the problem round here is that its nearly all destined for the big AD plant in hereford, maybe it'll end up going for feed?

 

[campanula]

Maize?

Its not looking too bad over in the west, but the problem round here is that its nearly all destined for the big AD plant in hereford, maybe it'll end up going for feed?

Yep. I have never seen fields like this in my life. My neighbouring farmer has also been told he must limit what he extracts from the Yare...his cowman says he will irrigate at night.

As a townie, I had quite a thrilling tractor driving moment, this weekend, helping move the water pipes.

 

[Funky_monks]

Yep. I have never seen fields like this in my life. My neighbouring farmer has also been told he must limit what he extracts from the Yare...his cowman says he will irrigate at night.

As a townie, I had quite a thrilling tractor driving moment, this weekend, helping move the water pipes.

Austrailan farmers think we are mad over here for not manging water on farm, river extraction is very 20th century.

 

[Saunders]

I heard from a cousin of mine that they had to silage their entire corn crop. Basically, the drought made it impossible for them to grow a crop this year. It wasn't worth harvesting and had to be chopped up for animal feed. I checked to see what luck everyone else was having and it doesn't look good. Bloomberg noted that there is likely to be a corn shortage because yield levels are going to be lower than 2021.

US Crop Tour Stokes Fears of Looming Corn Shortage

Parched soils. Grasshopper infestations. Scorching heat. Hail damage. This year’s US corn crop has been put through the wringer -- and it shows.

www.bloomberg.com

This is going to make global famine even more likely, as the price of the corn will goes up.

I read this and none of the reaction emojis seemed appropriate. I don’t have anything useful or interesting to say other than Oh bloody hell. That is very shit.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Austrailan farmers think we are mad over here for not manging water on farm, river extraction is very 20th century.

It’s a great way to fuck rivers dry

 

[platinumsage]

Some good news:

Against expectations, global food prices have tumbled

Why the war in Ukraine has caused less disruption than feared

www.economist.com

"Six months after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, an inflationary shock is still ripping through boardrooms, finance ministries and households. But in one crucial area, prices have come back to Earth. The cost of grains, cereals and oils, staples of diets around the world, has returned to levels last seen before the war began."

 

[Funky_monks]

Some good news:

Against expectations, global food prices have tumbled

Why the war in Ukraine has caused less disruption than feared

www.economist.com

"Six months after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, an inflationary shock is still ripping through boardrooms, finance ministries and households. But in one crucial area, prices have come back to Earth. The cost of grains, cereals and oils, staples of diets around the world, has returned to levels last seen before the war began."

View attachment 340737

Crops have a long lead in time, annual (which includes all combinable crops), crops are harvested once a year - short termism can be very misleading in Agriculture.
As said, harvest 2023 will be the crunch.

 

[JimW]

Interesting write-up on some resilient farming in Tunisia: Tunisian 'hanging garden' farms cling on despite drought

 

[Flavour]

Sort of related

How gas rationing at Germany’s BASF plant could plunge Europe into crisis

A shutdown would have a far-reaching impact across all sectors, from nappies to medicine

www.theguardian.com

Mad to think they've had gas running through those pipes non stop since the 60s. The knock on effects of a shut down would certainly increase food prices in several areas

 

[gosub]

Also on China, Swine flu has (might possibly still be) been a thing

 

[Crispy]

Interesting write-up on some resilient farming in Tunisia: Tunisian 'hanging garden' farms cling on despite drought

So site-specific and labour intensive. That's the trouble with permaculture (a fancy word for this kind of traditional farming). It requires deep knowledge of the local environment and all the plants in the system. And it can't be farmed with machines, with a handful of workers tending to 1000s of hectares. Moving global agriculture over to such systems means reversing urbanisation and massively decreasing the labour pool for non-agricultural productivity. No capitalist govenment could possibly support such a thing.

 

[JimW]

So site-specific and labour intensive. That's the trouble with permaculture (a fancy word for this kind of traditional farming). It requires deep knowledge of the local environment and all the plants in the system. And it can't be farmed with machines, with a handful of workers tending to 1000s of hectares. Moving global agriculture over to such systems means reversing urbanisation and massively decreasing the labour pool for non-agricultural productivity. No capitalist govenment could possibly support such a thing.

I've mentioned on here before reading some trenchant defences of the Maoist attempt at rural collectives which really did have some ability to address those issues you raise, and as is the way of things, were probably abandoned just as the teething problems and mistakes were being ironed out. Ship's sailed now, of course.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

A lot of the price increases were factoring in lower production in Ukraine:

Years of bad weather affecting big crop-producing regions, including in South America, had stretched global crop supplies, industry executives said. This year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted shipments from one of the world’s top grain-exporting regions.

Those factors have driven up food prices this year, especially for poorer countries. In a September report on global food security in 77 low- and middle-income countries, the USDA estimated the number of food-insecure people at 1.3 billion, up about 10% from the 2021 estimate.

After rocketing higher following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, crop prices have eased in recent months. An agreement between Russia and Ukraine, completed in July, has enabled more than a million tons of grain trapped in Ukrainian silos to be exported via the Black Sea, and helped alleviate some of the squeezes on food. Fears of a possible global recession also have weighed on agricultural commodity markets.

Archer Daniels Midland CEO Juan Luciano said at a Sept. 7 investor conference that between March and August, Ukraine exported about 40% of the grain it would normally ship in that particular period. Under the Black Sea grain deal this summer, the country has shipped about 60% of what it has done in past years, he said. For September, he said it could improve further to be closer to 80% or 90%.

“It has recovered pretty quickly,” Mr. Luciano said. “Hopefully, that continues to happen because I think that it goes a long way to alleviate any pressure in the food system.”

It would likely take two or three years of good crops in the Southern and Northern hemispheres for the world crop supply to reach sufficient levels, he said.

Food Supply Stays Tight as Disappointing U.S. Harvest Adds to Global Challenges

www.msn.com

I don't think the bad harvest in the US has been figured in yet, but I hope I'm wrong. It does look like crop losses aren't as bad as I thought driving across Nebraska. They're expecting yields to be down, but it's not the complete losses I see locally. Last time I was out and about, I saw that many farmers had replanted with soy. While we're still getting record temps, we're starting to see some rain. My cousin that had to silage their corn crop reported that they'd had a couple inches of rain this week and more is projected next. But as Funky-monks said, we could really use a couple years of decent harvests.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

So site-specific and labour intensive. That's the trouble with permaculture (a fancy word for this kind of traditional farming). It requires deep knowledge of the local environment and all the plants in the system. And it can't be farmed with machines, with a handful of workers tending to 1000s of hectares. Moving global agriculture over to such systems means reversing urbanisation and massively decreasing the labour pool for non-agricultural productivity. No capitalist govenment could possibly support such a thing.

I'm a permaculture advocate, but you're right no capitalist government would sanction that model. It would create worker shortages in many industries, as people moved out of cities and onto farms. It would also decrease use of some of the industrial inputs now required, so Cargil and Pfizer isn't going to like it, unless they can patent it. I think a growing backlash against their model will drive permaculture forward, but it won't become the dominant model for the near future. As climate changes takes hold, we may have no choice but to change our agricultural practices to something more sustainable on the longer term. Of course, mass starvation is another option. I'm sure the capitalists could make a buck off of that.

 

[Funky_monks]

I'm a permaculture advocate, but you're right no capitalist government would sanction that model. It would create worker shortages in many industries, as people moved out of cities and onto farms. It would also decrease use of some of the industrial inputs now required, so Cargil and Pfizer isn't going to like it, unless they can patent it. I think a growing backlash against their model will drive permaculture forward, but it won't become the dominant model for the near future. As climate changes takes hold, we may have no choice but to change our agricultural practices to something more sustainable on the longer term. Of course, mass starvation is another option. I'm sure the capitalists could make a buck off of that.

Not entirely convinced that permaculture yields enough to sustain populations at their current levels. However, you do seem to be able to produce surplus veg, quite efficiently on small scale systems - lack of machinery means you can utilise height to increase yield/unit area this can be as basic as growing climbing beans/peas as opposed to dwarf varieties along with a small surplus of meat (at least they do in the systems I've seen) - I think the solution is quite complex and involves lots of different systems depending on climate/location. I've seen some very cool urban veg production systems on disused areas/roofs etc, occasionally involving things like aquaponics to yield protein too.

I think mixed farming will have a place too in certain areas, probably especially important with combinable crops to make use of cover cropping/undersowing etc.

I can't see permaculture providing sufficient cereals, for example.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Peak potash:



The US, will probably be ok, but Africa, China, and the Middle East will see shortages. The last time food shortages happened on this scale, people rioted in the streets and governments fell.

 

[Funky_monks]

Peak potash:



The US, will probably be ok, but Africa, China, and the Middle East will see shortages. The last time food shortages happened on this scale, people rioted in the streets and governments fell.

Think it's K that can be reasonably easily obtained from seaweed which can be cultured.
Might be wrong, have to look it up.
Certainly synthetic fertiliser has had it's day, and the sooner we get to grips with that, the better.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Think it's K that can be reasonably easily obtained from seaweed which can be cultured.
Might be wrong, have to look it up.
Certainly synthetic fertiliser has had it's day, and the sooner we get to grips with that, the better.

There are certainly alternatives to the synthetic fertilizers in use today, but I'm not certain the knowledge-base needed to employ them is there since the synthetic fertilizer and chemical l model has been used for several generations of farmers now.

I'd be interested in hearing more about getting K from culturing seaweed.

 

[tep]

i thought that we held the world supply of K. ie the Boulby Mine.

 

[Funky_monks]

There are certainly alternatives to the synthetic fertilizers in use today, but I'm not certain the knowledge-base needed to employ them is there since the synthetic fertilizer and chemical l model has been used for several generations of farmers now.

I'd be interested in hearing more about getting K from culturing seaweed.

They use it in fert for organic systems unrefined. Seaweed is oddly, one of aquaculture biggest outputs, its just not talked about much.

If it provides K as is, I imagine it could quite easily be pelleted

 

[RedRedRose]

The US, will probably be ok, but Africa, China, and the Middle East will see shortages. The last time food shortages happened on this scale, people rioted in the streets and governments fell.

How reliable is this?

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

How reliable is this?

It's just this guy's opinion, but he tends to do a good job of understanding demographic trends and commodities. As far as I know, he isn't a farmer, even if he did grow up in Iowa. Most of his books are about the intersection of demographics and economics.

 

[Funky_monks]

i thought that we held the world supply of K. ie the Boulby Mine.

I know it exists and I know we are running short of K generally speaking, its something out agronomy lecturer talks about a lot.

 

[2hats]

i thought that we held the world supply of K. ie the Boulby Mine.

Boulby produces potash but isn't the largest source (Canada produces the most and has the largest reserves).

It is however the only source of polyhalite (K2Ca2Mg(SO4)4·2H2O), a multi-nutrient fertiliser.

It also produces a lot of road salt (from the overburden) and houses dark matter and astrobiology research labs.

 

[tep]

We also have a wealth of slower release potassium in the greensands that occur below the lower chalk, failing that any feldspar rich igneous rocks like granite. I don't honestly think that potassium is a problem.

Phosphorus shortage, on the other hand, is a big world issue, although our soils and groundwater are so full of pollution 'run off' that we have many years stored up, plus the waste sewage holds another source.

 

[Funky_monks]

Much less sown in 2022, because of fuel and fert prices, certainly in the UK, war in Ukraine and now crop abandonment in Kansas.

Harvest 2023 is gonna be interesting. Expect the price of grain to go through the roof.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-new...rs-abandon-wheat-fields-after-extreme-drought

 

[Brainaddict]

My guess is that climate disruption is going to lead to food shortages being fairly common from now on. The shortages will interact with political instability to exacerbate the problems. I suspect the days of fairly stable global food trade are over, and a lot of countries are going to wish they'd given more thought to food sovereignty. Or at least the people will, the politicians will continue to ignore the problems for as long as they can, because globalisation has produced a political class that can only see solutions in more globalisation.