Are Worldwide Food Shortages Coming? Rising costs, lower crop yields.

[Yuwipi Woman]

I think I a little confused (doesn't take much).

What are you going to bale?

Hay.

Also - corn is terrible for the soil. I don't think I have even seen corn planted in the same field two years in a row.

My grandfather was no farmer. He planted corn in that plot for decades. You could see where the soil had eroded around the fence posts.

 

[spring-peeper]

Hay.



My grandfather was no farmer. He planted corn in that plot for decades. You could see where the soil had eroded around the fence posts.

Good about the hay - for a horrible moment I thought it was gonna be poison hemlock and dock!!!!

Pity about the corn damage....

 

[Funky_monks]

View attachment 331792


I like your chart.

Over here, the farmers do two cuttings of hay. Three if it is a good year.
The first cut is has the highest nutrients.

Again, using your chart, it helps explain why the cattle is not allowed grazing until the grass is a certain height.
If the animals go out too early, they will eat the grass that has little nutrient value and can make them sick (or that is what the farmers tell me)

It's not so much that - the "best" grass for sheep is generally considered to be a couple of inches long. Its more that if you graze like that you get slow recovery of grass, less cover and can keep less stock/more grass will burn off in a drout etc etc.

There's no good scientific reason why sheep should do well on long grass leys currently, but they seem to if moved often.

 

[Funky_monks]

Hay.



My grandfather was no farmer. He planted corn in that plot for decades. You could see where the soil had eroded around the fence posts.

Maize?

There's some quite interesting stuff going on undersowing it with legumes and then grazing the aftermaths.

 

[spring-peeper]

It's not so much that - the "best" grass for sheep is generally considered to be a couple of inches long. Its more that if you graze like that you get slow recovery of grass, less cover and can keep less stock/more grass will burn off in a drout etc etc.

There's no good scientific reason why sheep should do well on long grass leys currently, but they seem to if moved often.

I was talking about cows....


Some local yimyams graze their sheep on just one field.
Drove past it today, and there is no grass left.
Every year, it is the same thing with them.

(((yimyam's sheep)))

 

[spring-peeper]

Maize?

There's some quite interesting stuff going on undersowing it with legumes and then grazing the aftermaths.

Maize - cow corn/animal feed?

The corn plant has changed over the years.

You used to be able to walk between the rows, and each plant has several cobs on it.

Now, there is not enough room to walk, and there is only one cob per plant.
Nothing grows under the corn, no room or light.
And the pesticides would kill it off.



Sweet corn, or the stuff people eat, is probably a different story.

 

[Funky_monks]

Maize - cow corn/animal feed?

The corn plant has changed over the years.

You used to be able to walk between the rows, and each plant has several cobs on it.

Now, there is not enough room to walk, and there is only one cob per plant.
Nothing grows under the corn, no room or light.
And the pesticides would kill it off.



Sweet corn, or the stuff people eat, is probably a different story.

Clover seems to do ok when undersown

 

[spring-peeper]

Clover seems to do ok when undersown

Not here.....

The pesticide will kill everything but the corn.

 

[Funky_monks]

Not here.....

The pesticide will kill everything but the corn.

It's usually drilled at the same time iirc, so both establish at the same time

 

[spring-peeper]

It's usually drilled at the same time iirc, so both establish at the same time

The pesticide will kill everything that is not that particular strain of corn.
The corn seeds are genetically modified to be resistant to the pesticide.

The corn is taken off from the end of August to the beginning of October.
Then it snows and the animals are brought into the barns until late spring.

When the snow melts, the Canada geese rest on the fields as they make their way up north. They tend to eat any leftover corn, and their colouring allows them to blend into the fields.

After the geese, the farmers start the procedure over again.



eta: I'm posting from Eastern Ontario, btw.

 

[NoXion]

I very much doubt that pesticides (which kill animals, usually invertebrates) are what is preventing other plants from growing under corn. More likely it's because increased crop plant density crowds out anything else.

 

[Funky_monks]

I very much doubt that pesticides (which kill animals, usually invertebrates) are what is preventing other plants from growing under corn. More likely it's because increased crop plant density crowds out anything else.

They might spray post drilling and pre emergence.

 

[spring-peeper]

I very much doubt that pesticides (which kill animals, usually invertebrates) are what is preventing other plants from growing under corn. More likely it's because increased crop plant density crowds out anything else.

True, but they are out there spraying their pesticides anyway.

 

[spring-peeper]

They might spray post drilling and pre emergence.

They want the corn. Some sell it, others use it for feed for their cattle.

The cattle have their own pastures, no need for them to go into the corn field.

 

[spring-peeper]

I'm just reporting what the farming practices are in my little corner of the world.
I hope no-one thinks that I approve of what they do, it just gives you an insight on how practices vary.

I find other regions approach to agriculture interesting.

Australia adopted a farming technique that saw farmers stopping the tilling process. It was to keep the water in the soil.
Tilling killed the mice who lived just below the surface.
Without the tilling, the mouse population sky-rocketed.
I still get the shudders when I see just how many mice there were.

 

[yield]

We should worry about price of food more than petrol, warns BlackRock’s Fink
16/07/2022 archive.ph

“We talk a lot about gasoline prices because that’s what affects Americans but the bigger issue is food,” Fink said. “There has been tremendous destruction of arable land in Ukraine.....Globally the cost of fertiliser is up almost 100 per cent and that additional cost is reducing the amount of fertiliser used in farming. That is harming the quality of the crop worldwide.”

Although lower oil prices have started to feed through to the price at the pump for motorists, consumer goods companies are continuing to see high input costs. Any drop in fertiliser prices is likely to come too late to boost this year’s food harvests.
The World Bank forecast after the invasion that global food prices would rise 20 per cent this year, far outpacing raw materials.

The impact is particularly grim in Africa, which usually imports grain from Ukraine as well as producing its own food. Fertiliser prices there have risen 300 per cent, and the continent is facing a shortage of 2mn metric tons, according to the African Development Bank. It has approved a $1.5bn programme to help farmers fill the gap but warns that total production could fall by 20 per cent this year.

 

[yield]

East Africa bloc says 50 million face acute food insecurity
July 22, 2022

KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — More than 50 million people across the East African region are expected to face acute food insecurity this year, a regional bloc said Friday, warning that some 300,000 in Somalia and South Sudan are projected to be under full-blown famine conditions.

The assessment by Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD, is one of the most dire yet as United Nations agencies, humanitarian groups and others continue to raise alarm over the region’s food crisis that many say has been largely neglected as the international community focuses on the war in Ukraine.

 

[bcuster]

Resources should be diverted from animal husbandry to grain production & storage

 

[Funky_monks]

Resources should be diverted from animal husbandry to grain production & storage

And assuming you can actually find enough uncultivated grade 3 or above reasonably flat land that is not already being cropped, that might make a difference in August-September 2023 if it is drilled this winter/spring, the weather is good and the price of fertiliser drops significantly....

 

[bcuster]

And assuming you can actually find enough uncultivated grade 3 or above reasonably flat land that is not already being cropped, that might make a difference in August-September 2023 if it is drilled this winter/spring, the weather is good and the price of fertiliser drops significantly....

there is time, the will to do it is lacking, i fear...

 

[Funky_monks]

there is time, the will to do it is lacking, i fear...

Or the space.
If you had spare land in an environmental scheme (which is where I would hazard most of our spare combinable land is) would you put it under the plough with fert over £800/ ton and rising, red diesel up to nearly 70 odd pence and duty rises of an additional 40p/l as of next year?
You'd lose the payments from the scheme and possibly make a loss on the wheat unless grain prices soar, and even then, would people be able to afford it?

 

[yield]

Ukraine’s grain is ready to go. But ships aren’t. Why? Risk
AP. 27/07/22

“We have to work very hard to now understand the detail of how this is going to work practically,” said Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, representing national shipowners associations that account for about 80% of the world’s merchant fleet.

“Can we make sure and guarantee the safety of the crews? What’s going to happen with the mines and the minefields, as well? So lots of uncertainty and unknowns at the moment,” he said.

Getting wheat and other food out is critical to farmers in Ukraine, who are running out of storage capacity amid a new harvest. Those grains are vital to millions of people in Africa, parts of the Middle East and South Asia, who are already facing food shortages and, in some cases, famine.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Resources should be diverted from animal husbandry to grain production & storage

And assuming you can actually find enough uncultivated grade 3 or above reasonably flat land that is not already being cropped, that might make a difference in August-September 2023 if it is drilled this winter/spring, the weather is good and the price of fertiliser drops significantly....

This is a longer-term problem than our current crisis. Africa has 60% of the world's unused arable land. Many of the problems with food production aren't actually farm related. They're mostly political and managerial in nature.

 

[bcuster]

Or the space.
If you had spare land in an environmental scheme (which is where I would hazard most of our spare combinable land is) would you put it under the plough with fert over £800/ ton and rising, red diesel up to nearly 70 odd pence and duty rises of an additional 40p/l as of next year?
You'd lose the payments from the scheme and possibly make a loss on the wheat unless grain prices soar, and even then, would people be able to

A lack of will to do so. maybe the increassing price of "meat" between MacDonald's hamburger buns can bring change to western eating habits

 

[Funky_monks]

A lack of will to do so. maybe the increassing price of "meat" between MacDonald's hamburger buns can bring change to western eating habits

What's that got to do with cropping land?

Animals aren't generally grazed on land capable of growing wheat of any quality. I suppose if people lowered their expectations, we could start eating feed wheat as opposed to milling wheat.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Food crisis beginning to hit in earnest:

Global food prices have surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February. In the US, prices jumped 10% year-over-year as of May, the biggest increase since 1981, and rose to a record 8.9% in the eurozone. Globally, things are even worse: The UN's world food price index shot up 23% year-over-year as of June. Simply put, more and more people are struggling to afford food.

"A food crisis is a price crisis," Chris Barrett, an economist and food-policy expert at Cornell University, told Insider. He said its implications are widespread and touch every person's life, even if they don't immediately realize it.

"If you worry about domestic politics, if you worry about environmental matters, if you worry about immigration matters, if you worry about diplomacy in the military, you should be paying attention to the food crisis, because it is lurking in the background, pushing those things," Barrett said.

Warnings from global organizations are growing louder and more desperate. According to the UN World Food Programme, 50 million people around the world are on the brink of famine and risk being tipped over, with the WFP's director calling it a "looming hunger catastrophe."

MSN

Prices have already increased beyond what some can afford and we're only getting started.

 

[yield]

1st ship carrying Ukrainian grain leaves the port of Odesa
01/08/22

In an interview with Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar warned that the global food crisis threatens to trigger “a serious wave of migration from Africa to Europe and to Turkey.”

Lebanon, the corn’s destination, is in the grip of a severe financial crisis. A 2020 explosion at its main port in Beirut shattered its capital city and destroyed grain silos. Lebanon mostly imports wheat from Ukraine but also buys its corn to make cooking oil and produce animal feed.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I heard from a cousin of mine that they had to silage their entire corn crop. Basically, the drought made it impossible for them to grow a crop this year. It wasn't worth harvesting and had to be chopped up for animal feed. I checked to see what luck everyone else was having and it doesn't look good. Bloomberg noted that there is likely to be a corn shortage because yield levels are going to be lower than 2021.

The rough conditions have shriveled crops in the western corn belt. Some scouts were holding out hope that perhaps better acres in the eastern half could salvage the national harvest. Now, that optimism is fading. Instead, there’s growing concern over a corn shortage.

“If the western corn belt is not as good as last year and the eastern corn belt isn’t better than last year, we are going to have a production deficit,” said Brent Judisch, Iowa farmer and a scout on the western leg of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. “There’s no way around it.”

Data collected earlier in the week showed yields in South Dakota, Ohio, Nebraska and Indiana trailing last year’s average. The bad news continued on Wednesday with figures showing the same kind of trend in Illinois, the No. 2 US producer. Preliminary findings in parts of Iowa were also disappointing.

US Crop Tour Stokes Fears of Looming Corn Shortage

Parched soils. Grasshopper infestations. Scorching heat. Hail damage. This year’s US corn crop has been put through the wringer -- and it shows.

www.bloomberg.com

This is going to make global famine even more likely, as the price of the corn will goes up.

 

[gosub]

Think rice is going to be a problem, given whats been going on in Asia

 

[Bingoman]

Think rice is going to be a problem, given whats been going on in Asia

Do tell