Towards a Night of the Long Knives?
Ahmad al-Sharaa is under double pressure over the treatment of some foreign jihadists. International pressure from the Gulf countries, the West and Turkey. And Syrian pressure, from a frightened part of the population.
Will he go so far as to attack some of his former allies?
Since the collapse of the regime and in particular the breach of the dam that was the fall of Aleppo at the end of November 2024, nearly 5,000 foreign jihadists, from around twenty different groups, more or less harsh in their religious and political application, until then confined and imprisoned, like millions of Syrians, have been able to leave the remainder of Idlib...
Where these jihadists were concentrated and largely contained by HTS, sometimes even repressed by HTS, they have now been able to disperse across a large part of Syria...
These men, it is undeniable, have been at the forefront of the fighting between Aleppo and Homs. And including in previous years. Often led by veterans of jihad in other regions of the globe, seasoned and trained, the jihadist formations have often led the breakthroughs between November 27 and December 5, 2024.
This was the case of the Turkestan Islamic Party, Ajnad Kavkaz or Ansar al-Tawhid. The tens of thousands of Syrian fighters rushing into these breaches opened by their foreign jihadist allies.
These groups are more or less close to HTS. And their alliance was, for some of these forces, more of a forced cohabitation in the rebel remnant of Idlib, than a strong friendship. Ansar al-Tawhid is composed, for example, of Syrians and foreigners, some of whom have always rejected Nusra, then JFS, then HTS...
Other forces have shown, on the contrary, their great proximity to HTS, such as the Turkestan Islamic Party, which has always remained faithful in its friendship with Julani / al-Sharaa.
For the past week, local activist organizations, including opposition organizations since 2011, have recorded more than twenty actions that they attribute to foreign jihadists, without being able to clearly name the group responsible. The fire in Suquaylabiyah, near Hama, follows the destruction of crosses in cemeteries in the same city and in the neighboring city, also Christian, of Mahardah...
Last night was a turning point because one of the HTS leaders for Hama formally denounced the actions of foreign jihadists. A first.
Since December 8 and the fall of al-Assad, embassies have reopened and the diplomatic ballet has moved towards Damascus and its new master, Ahmad al-Sharaa. I allow you to follow this via this dedicated thread. They don't come just for the photo...
Ask yourself, dear readers, about the rush with which the whole world is going to Damascus in a few days in 2024 when, at the same time, after the fall of Kabul in 2021 to the Taliban, it took and still takes... years to get there. Anecdote?
Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Syria in just a few days. It reopened its embassy in Afghanistan a few... days ago too. Two weeks after the fall of the regime in Damascus. Compared to three years after the fall of the regime in Kabul.
The issue is indeed security...
If we add the foreign jihadists who were present in Idlib and those who are present in the SDF prisons in northeastern Syria, there are more than 8,000 foreign jihadists listed as still present on Syrian territory.
They represent more than forty nationalities. Mainly from Europe, Central Asia, the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula.
You understand the rush towards Damascus...
Beyond international pressure, it is now, with the simple incident of Suqaylabiyah, a Syrian popular pressure that will appear. And not only from the Christian community that al-Sharaa has been ensuring that it will protect for several weeks.
It is a situation of tensions and fears that can quickly contaminate the entire country... What could some of these foreign jihadist groups do, many of which have an ideological, theological and political line resulting from decades of references among the hardest in the jihadist movement?
Ahmad al-Sharaa does not fear strong-arm tactics against the hardest elements of his own political and religious movement. Let us recall this.
Since 2019, he has repressed, with arrests and clashes, the Hurras ad-Din movement, a branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. And he clearly collaborated with the American services to have some of its foreign leaders assassinated, notably Jordanians... Ahmad al-Sharaa has also not hesitated to attack foreign jihadists who are less hostile: the imprisonment of the Nice jihadist Omar Omsen is a reminder of this...
Finally, because it is very rarely mentioned, his group (formerly Nusra then JFS) has participated, since 2014, in the war against the Islamic State, sometimes in bloody battles such as the battle of Markadah, little known to the general public, which left hundreds of dead between jihadists of al-Nusra and the Islamic State... Yes, you read correctly.
Ahmad al-Sharaa is a man who is in reality much more political and versatile than one might think.
So, I come back to it: under pressure from countries around the world, potentially worried about their nationals fighting in Syria, and from a part of the Syrian population, who could give in to fear/paranoia, could Ahmad al-Sharaa initiate a Night of the Long Knives?
If many foreign jihadists have expressed the wish to engage in a Bosnian-style life (that is to say, to continue living in peace in Syria and blending into the population, abandoning weapons), what about the hardest ones who will consider that their lives have been sacrificed uselessly since 2012 against the regime to establish an Islamic model of governance as they have ideologically carried it?
Everything is now at stake...