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And next, Syria?

The SDF have retaken a number of villages in the Manbij countryside in a new offensive. I'm not sure whether the aim is to try and retake Manbij itself and push the SNA out. This comes after days of a supposed ceasefire which the Americans claimed to have negotiated with the SNA and Turkey but which Turkey has denied agreeing to.
 
Report on the threats to the autonomous administration in the north east. I'm not so sure how hostile the relationship between HTS and the PYD actually is and how friendly relations really are with Turkey.

The HTS has a hostile relationship with the PYD and friendly relations with Turkey.
 
Manbij

ScharoMaroof
Really putting an emphasis on this one - we tell the world that the Turkish led SNA are looting every place they go to. But most people ignore it since I am a Kurd and a Kurd must be >döing Pröpägandiye<

Now you have SNA sources in a fit of rage calling out the looting by SNA fighters.

And in all seriousness: the SNA looting is the most extreme looting I’ve ever seen - it’s like they’re addicted to it.
Manbij Meltdown from one pro-SNA source:
"A major shortage of weapons and the large factions"
"The Free People are robbing Arimah and Manbij and the SDF is advancing"
"whoever has honor and chivalry among the faction leaders should send reinforcements immediately"
 
A pessimistic take on the prospects for the autonomous administration

The trauma that accompanied the break-up of Yugoslavia meant that there was no realistic prospect for ‘balkanisation from below’, drawing on the region’s history of inter-ethnic cooperation to establish a new, pluralist federation. In Syria, however, DAANES’s inter-ethnic federation of some four million people – in which left-wing Kurdish militants and conservative Arab groupings peacefully coexist – may point to a possible way forward. HTS and DAANES have for the most part avoided conflict during the past fortnight of dynamic territorial changes. Might popular pressure forge some division of power between them? The chances are slim, and HTS’s neoliberal pragmatism likely means that it will choose the path of least resistance: allowing the West’s authoritarian regional partners to become the overlords of a carved-up Syria, and putting the very survival of the Kurdish statelet in question. But at this point, nothing is predestined.
 
A view of Syria from Turkey

Turkey controls several armed factions in northern Syria, which are organized under the coalition known as the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army). Turkey’s hope is that the SNA will wipe out the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and subordinate the Syrian Kurds to an Islamic government in Damascus. Erdoğanists also wants to see SNA-affiliated officials in the post-Assad cabinet. However, Turkey’s impact on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the organization that led the advance on Damascus – is limited. During the first days of December, Turkey was having conversations with Russia and Iran with the apparent aim of ending hostilities rather than deposing Assad. Earlier, in mid-November, Erdoğan was making public calls for Assad to be included in some transitional regime. Far from masterminding the campaign, then, it looks as though Erdoğan was simply forced to give the greenlight after HTS took the initiative. SNA participated in the offensive but did not lead it. There are also reports of friction between the HTS and SNA, and even – tellingly – the arrest of some SNA cadres for abusing Kurdish civilians.
 
Woofers
What is going on near Manbij is a result of the ceasefire not be respected. Every single day the SNA launched assaults to take control of the Euphrates crossings. I do not believe this offensive is aimed at recapturing Manbij, but it could happen. This offensive shows strength.

The US hems and haws about ceasefires and security concerns and it is awesome that they've dramatically reduced Turkish strikes and an offensive on Kobane. But the ceasefire wasn't respected and the idea that the SDF should wait to be salami sliced to death is one of weakness.

What we need is for an actual comprehensive peace agreement that doesn't see militarized gangs taking over territory and a political solution for Syria which could also be used to solve Kurdish-Turkish conflicts elsewhere. All of this fighting is totally avoidable!
 
Report of an interview with Mazloum Abdi

The SDF commander also warned that any attempt to Islamize Syria poses a serious threat to the country’s cultural and religious diversity. Meanwhile, Abdi emphasized the need to preserve Syria’s pluralistic identity.

Abdi revealed that the SDF maintains channels of communication with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), although he clarified that no direct negotiations have taken place between the two sides. He stressed that Syria is at a critical crossroads following the political and military shifts that occurred after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

"The future of Syria hinges on establishing a democratic system rooted in justice and equality for all components and religions," Abdi stated, underscoring the importance of uniting Syrian forces to prevent the recurrence of past mistakes that could lead to further conflict and instability.

Abdi highlighted the long-standing suffering of the Syrian people and urged that their aspirations, which ignited the revolution, must be fulfilled. He described the SDF as a vital safeguard against the resurgence of extremism, advocating for the creation of a constitution that secures the rights of all Syrians under a unified framework.
The SDF leader reiterated his dedication to peaceful solutions, noting that maintaining open communication with HTS could help avoid clashes and de-escalate tensions.

In a pointed critique, Abdi accused the Syrian National Army (SNA) of being directly influenced by Turkey. "Ankara orchestrates the SNA’s decisions, and we are responding to their attacks carried out under the cover of Turkish drones. Our focus remains on fortifying defensive lines to prevent breaches or assaults on our positions," he asserted.
 
video of protest by Christians in Damascus. I think this is in solidarity with the residents of a Greek Orthodox town near Hama where foreign fighters linked to HTS burned down a Christmas tree.

video
From in front of the Mariamite Patriarchate, Christian protesters from the Greek Orthodox community are calling out to the Patriarch:
‘Oh Patriarch, are you asleep? The Christian people are awakening!

eta: reports of protests in other Christian towns.

video
Christians and Druze in Sahnaya, located in the Damascus countryside, are protesting in solidarity with the Christians in the Valley of Christians. They are calling for the removal of foreign fighters from Syrian Christian and minority towns.
 
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Syria's oil crisis - the continuing sanctions obviously play a part.

Syria has been importing some 120,000 barrels of crude daily from Iraq and now faces a supply squeeze as a result of the Iraqi authorities' decision. The situation will be aggravated by the halt to internal deliveries of crude from eastern Syria, controlled by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, to the rest of Syria, which is under the control of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham group, formerly considered a terrorist group by the international community, which was supported by Al Qaeda during the Syrian civil war.

Following the insurgence that toppled the Assad government earlier this month, supplies of crude oil from Iran have also ended, with one tanker even making a U-turn en route to the Syrian coast following the news of the change in power in Syria. Iran was exporting some 60,000 barrels of oil daily to Syria. The country's own oil production is to the tune of some 80,000 barrels daily, all from eastern Syria, which is under the control of the Kurdish-affiliated Syrian Democratic Forces.
 
Public sector workers dismissed for political reasons under the Assad regime will get their jobs back.

The Ministry of Administrative Development in the Syrian caretaker government has issued a circular for employees in public institutions who were dismissed by the ousted Assad regime.

Mahmoud Ghabsha, head of the Ministry of Administrative Development office, told Enab Baladi that the ministry issued a circular requesting all employees who were dismissed from their jobs due to their participation in the Syrian revolution to register on the ministry’s link in preparation for their return to work.
 
Thread about tonight's Christian protests

Cedric Labrousse
The Druze and Christians are marching tonight, with their weapons, in the city of Sahnaya, near Damascus, in solidarity with the Christians of Suquaylabiyah, near Hama.

This story is revealing the whole issue of controlling, or not, the hardest foreign jihadists on Syrian soil. A real test for Ahmad al-Sharaa. And for the solidity of Syrian society...

A reminder that the disarmament of the forces present in Syria will be complex if each is afraid of the other...

* The Druze and Christians will assure that they are afraid of the jihadists.

* The Kurds will assure that they are afraid of the Turkmen and Arab supremacists.

* The Arab tribes of the east will consider that it is their right to self-defense.

* And the former revolutionaries of the south will consider that it is in their dignity as first revolutionaries, etc...

Not to mention the hardest jihadist groups who will not even see the idea of obeying their former brother converted to the modern political model.

It is a spontaneous movement of anger that affects all of Syria's Christianity, including Armenians, Greek Orthodox, and Syriacs and Assyrians. Thousands of Christians, sometimes armed, are taking to the streets tonight throughout the country, saying "a Christian is not afraid of death!"

In the neighborhoods of Damascus like Bab Tuma, Bab Sharqi, etc. In the Druze and Christian cities like Jaramana. The neighborhoods of Aleppo like Midan. The Christian neighborhoods of Latakia. The Christian city of Mahardah...

Everywhere, Christians are demonstrating a show of force never seen since 2011. And they are marching under the colors of the Syrian revolution, which is remarkable.

Al-Sharaa will have to choose very quickly between some of its former foreign jihadist allies, without whom it would undeniably not have been able to win its offensive since November 27, and the Syrians...

Note: Mobilization also of Greek Orthodox Christians of Wadi al-Nasara, the valley of Christians, west of Homs. This region is made up of about thirty Christian towns, including al-Hawash, where the demonstration filmed here is taking place tonight. Anger is everywhere...
 
Guardian video with a liberated prisoner revisiting Sednaya


A new Syria is emerging from the shadow of the brutal Assad regime. The Guardian’s Bethan McKernan and Ayman Abu Ramouz meet people celebrating their hard-won freedom, but also those grappling with a traumatic past. The pair travel to the notorious Sednaya prison, where they meet a former prisoner who was liberated by his family just days before.
 

I did not know this but Kurdish community in this country have community centre in David Lammy constituency. A large presence and have been Labour supporters. He was even on the management committee of the centre at one point.

Over years David Lammy MP has criticised Turkey over treatment of Kurds. Been very vocal about it.

Now , since raid on the community centre , he has been silent.

One he became Foreign secretary his support for Kurds was reduced to say the least

And yet, rising tensions within Nato are key to the oppression of the Kurds. “In order for the US to entrench its own military and political power in the world, it needs Nato to be strong,” said Kaykho. “And one way of keeping Nato strong is to keep Turkey happy. And keeping Turkey happy requires the criminalisation of Kurdish communities wherever they have a significant presence.”

These geopolitical considerations are the backdrop for what many Kurds in north London see as an epic act of betrayal, with its heart in a community centre, wedged between a railway track and some terraced houses.

Asked about her feelings about Lammy since the raid, Beri said: “He is where he is, and he has become what he has through the Kurdish community, partly. So it’s a disgrace that we’ve been let down.

“The message I would probably give to David Lammy is, why have you thrown the Kurds under the bus for some dirty deals that have been made?”

Just two weeks prior to the raid on the KCC, Lammy met with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, in London. Following the meeting, Lammy said: “Turkey is an indispensable ally to the UK. Hakan Fidan and I are committed to strengthening our security and building business opportunities for British and Turkish people.”

I can understand he's now Foreign secretary but this does not bode well for Kurds here or in Syria if this is David Lammy position now.

He's been silent on the raid and has not met community leaders.
 
Some reports that this agreement is for all armed factions but it obviously doesn't include the SDF and I'm not sure if it includes all the SNA factions.

Aaron Zelin
Ahmad al-Shar’a (Jawlani) meets with leaders of the revolutionary factions from the south. Outcome of this meeting is an agreement to dissolve all factions and merge them under the umbrella of the Ministry of Defense
 
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This looks like a positive gesture towards Syria's Christians.

Aaron Zelin
The office of Muhammad al-Bashir, prime minister of the Syrian caretaker government, announces December 25 and 26 as an official holiday

eta:
Cedric Labrousse
Christmas officially a holiday in Syria, by decision of the government. While demonstrations by thousands of Christians took place again this morning across Syria, the HTS-linked government led by Muhammad al-Bashir announced that it was registering the days of December 25 and 26, dedicated to Christmas, as holidays for the country's public services and administrations. A decision that attempts to respond to this anger. Opportunistic or not, it is quite a political tour de force.

Once again, what reaction will the former hardest jihadist allies have to these political changes within HTS since the seizure of power...?

The decision was made two hours ago. And the MO media are making a story out of it. You have to understand that it is indeed a story. Because if December 25 was a holiday for all of Syria under the Assads, there were never two days.

It is also a strong message addressed to the hardest jihadist groups. Ahmad al-Sharaa has chosen to position himself de facto on the side of the Christians of Syria against the radicals in his camp, particularly foreigners...
 
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I did not know this but Kurdish community in this country have community centre in David Lammy constituency. A large presence and have been Labour supporters. He was even on the management committee of the centre at one point.

Over years David Lammy MP has criticised Turkey over treatment of Kurds. Been very vocal about it.

Now , since raid on the community centre , he has been silent.

One he became Foreign secretary his support for Kurds was reduced to say the least







I can understand he's now Foreign secretary but this does not bode well for Kurds here or in Syria if this is David Lammy position now.

He's been silent on the raid and has not met community leaders.
Not the party of protest
 
Translated thread from Cedric Labrousse
Towards a Night of the Long Knives?

Ahmad al-Sharaa is under double pressure over the treatment of some foreign jihadists. International pressure from the Gulf countries, the West and Turkey. And Syrian pressure, from a frightened part of the population.

Will he go so far as to attack some of his former allies?

Since the collapse of the regime and in particular the breach of the dam that was the fall of Aleppo at the end of November 2024, nearly 5,000 foreign jihadists, from around twenty different groups, more or less harsh in their religious and political application, until then confined and imprisoned, like millions of Syrians, have been able to leave the remainder of Idlib...

Where these jihadists were concentrated and largely contained by HTS, sometimes even repressed by HTS, they have now been able to disperse across a large part of Syria...

These men, it is undeniable, have been at the forefront of the fighting between Aleppo and Homs. And including in previous years. Often led by veterans of jihad in other regions of the globe, seasoned and trained, the jihadist formations have often led the breakthroughs between November 27 and December 5, 2024.

This was the case of the Turkestan Islamic Party, Ajnad Kavkaz or Ansar al-Tawhid. The tens of thousands of Syrian fighters rushing into these breaches opened by their foreign jihadist allies.

These groups are more or less close to HTS. And their alliance was, for some of these forces, more of a forced cohabitation in the rebel remnant of Idlib, than a strong friendship. Ansar al-Tawhid is composed, for example, of Syrians and foreigners, some of whom have always rejected Nusra, then JFS, then HTS...

Other forces have shown, on the contrary, their great proximity to HTS, such as the Turkestan Islamic Party, which has always remained faithful in its friendship with Julani / al-Sharaa.

For the past week, local activist organizations, including opposition organizations since 2011, have recorded more than twenty actions that they attribute to foreign jihadists, without being able to clearly name the group responsible. The fire in Suquaylabiyah, near Hama, follows the destruction of crosses in cemeteries in the same city and in the neighboring city, also Christian, of Mahardah...

Last night was a turning point because one of the HTS leaders for Hama formally denounced the actions of foreign jihadists. A first.

Since December 8 and the fall of al-Assad, embassies have reopened and the diplomatic ballet has moved towards Damascus and its new master, Ahmad al-Sharaa. I allow you to follow this via this dedicated thread. They don't come just for the photo...

Ask yourself, dear readers, about the rush with which the whole world is going to Damascus in a few days in 2024 when, at the same time, after the fall of Kabul in 2021 to the Taliban, it took and still takes... years to get there. Anecdote?

Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Syria in just a few days. It reopened its embassy in Afghanistan a few... days ago too. Two weeks after the fall of the regime in Damascus. Compared to three years after the fall of the regime in Kabul.

The issue is indeed security...

If we add the foreign jihadists who were present in Idlib and those who are present in the SDF prisons in northeastern Syria, there are more than 8,000 foreign jihadists listed as still present on Syrian territory.

They represent more than forty nationalities. Mainly from Europe, Central Asia, the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula.

You understand the rush towards Damascus...

Beyond international pressure, it is now, with the simple incident of Suqaylabiyah, a Syrian popular pressure that will appear. And not only from the Christian community that al-Sharaa has been ensuring that it will protect for several weeks.

It is a situation of tensions and fears that can quickly contaminate the entire country... What could some of these foreign jihadist groups do, many of which have an ideological, theological and political line resulting from decades of references among the hardest in the jihadist movement?

Ahmad al-Sharaa does not fear strong-arm tactics against the hardest elements of his own political and religious movement. Let us recall this.

Since 2019, he has repressed, with arrests and clashes, the Hurras ad-Din movement, a branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. And he clearly collaborated with the American services to have some of its foreign leaders assassinated, notably Jordanians... Ahmad al-Sharaa has also not hesitated to attack foreign jihadists who are less hostile: the imprisonment of the Nice jihadist Omar Omsen is a reminder of this...

Finally, because it is very rarely mentioned, his group (formerly Nusra then JFS) has participated, since 2014, in the war against the Islamic State, sometimes in bloody battles such as the battle of Markadah, little known to the general public, which left hundreds of dead between jihadists of al-Nusra and the Islamic State... Yes, you read correctly.

Ahmad al-Sharaa is a man who is in reality much more political and versatile than one might think.

So, I come back to it: under pressure from countries around the world, potentially worried about their nationals fighting in Syria, and from a part of the Syrian population, who could give in to fear/paranoia, could Ahmad al-Sharaa initiate a Night of the Long Knives?

If many foreign jihadists have expressed the wish to engage in a Bosnian-style life (that is to say, to continue living in peace in Syria and blending into the population, abandoning weapons), what about the hardest ones who will consider that their lives have been sacrificed uselessly since 2012 against the regime to establish an Islamic model of governance as they have ideologically carried it?

Everything is now at stake...
 
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Levant24
The Spanish newspaper "El Español" reported that the Russian cargo ship "Ursa Major," transporting weapons from Syria, sank in international waters between Spain and Algeria following an engine room explosion. The ship was part of the "Syria Express" convoy evacuating Russian military assets. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed the incident, stating a Russian cargo ship sank in the Mediterranean.
 
This article from 2022 gives an idea of past relations between HTS and other armed factions.

 
Interview with a fighter from Tekoşîna Anarşist:

This may be of interest:
There is an announce-only signal group that anyone can join with updates and analysis by anarchists in the region or paying attention which we’ll link in our shownotes. Just a headsup, the usernames of members of this group will be visible to the all other users there and it might be a good opportunity to set up your signal username and make your phone number unfindable for better anonymity prior to joining the signal group ( Signal Messenger Group )

This also sounds interesting:
We simultaneously recorded an interview with Cedric and Khuzama, two libertarian communists and editors of and contributors to the blog Interstices-Fajawat.org about their insights into Syria. This interview will be coming out soon, so keep an eye on our feed.

I'd not seen Interstices-Fajawat before, but here's a recent statement from them:
 
I'd not seen Interstices-Fajawat before, but here's a recent statement from them:

This article from them is also interesting:
Erdogan wanted -to occupy and expel the Kurds from-all Syrian territory above the M4 road, and continue to supply Israel with 30% of its oil via the BTC pipeline.

We believe that Turkey needed an armed force, the Syrian National Army (SNA) made up of docile Islamist and foreign mercenaries to carry-out its colonial and ethnic cleansing plans north of the M4 road, while another armed force made up of Syrian rebels motivated by the liberation of their country, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) provided a diversion to the south.

We also ‘believe that Turkey was not particularly interested in-what the Syrian rebels would do south of Aleppo, and was potentially surprised by the weakness and rout of the Syrian army, the speed with which the rebels reconquered western and southern Syria, but also the massive support for the offensive from the rebels in Suwayda and Deraa.

After the third day of offensive, Erdogan called Assad and the rebels to find a settlement.
HTS have clearly entered negotiations with the YPG/SDF on the outskirts of Aleppo from the first days of the offensive, and the Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafiye neighborhoods are still under YPG/SDF control. Moreover, their desire to protect religious minorities is not just a statement: there are no reports of HTS persecuting civilians since November 27th, and Syrian communities are welcoming the offensive, even if many people also worry about the coming weeks. HTS immediately opened the prisons and restored the water and electricity services that had been cut off and rationed for years by the regime, allowing foreign journalists into the country for the first time in decades. Moreover, HTS’s leader Al Joulani, who has severed his ties with al-Qaeda and has been in conflict with the SNA for several years, declared before the end of the offensive that he plans to dissolve the HTS and to leave the governance of Syria to a transition authority made from a coalition of groups representing the diversity of Syrian society.

Meanwhile, the turkey-backed SNA are indeed organizing the ethnic cleansing of northern Syria, with the aim of carrying out Erdogan’s plans. This aim is obviously not the liberation of the Syrians, and the conquest of the Tall Rif’at and Manbij districts, as well as the ongoing aggression in the Ayn al-Arab/Kobane district with the help of the Turkish air force, is associated with number of abuses and crimes against Kurdish civilian populations. Moreover, the most radical elements of the jihadist groups are affiliated to SNA, making it a major threat to the future stability of the whole of Syria.

Regarding the SDF, we think their compromises with the US on one hand and with the Assad regime and Russia on the other hand, but also their disrespect for Arab communities’ customs and demands in many regards (in Manbij, in Deir ez-Zor and other parts of Jazira/Rojava region) made them too unpopular to gain sympathy from other Syrians. Even so, it’s not fair to consider them allies of the Assad regime, their main concerns since 2015 having been to protect themselves from the serious risks of genocide represented by ISIS and to defend their autonomy, itself seen as a means of separating and protecting themselves from Assad’s dictatorial central power. Thus, SDF and Kurdish communities should enter into negotiations with the Syrian transitional authority to retain their autonomy, while proposing to be integrated into a new federal-type system enabling them to benefit from the same rights and guarantees as other Syrians.

There are many other rebel groups who took part in the HTS offensive but are not affiliated to HTS. This is notably the case of the Druze of Rijal al-Karami from the Suwayda district, who have resisted the central power since 2011 and massively obstructed the recruitment of 50,000 young Druze by the regime’s army, refusing to go and kill other Syrians. Over the past few years, Rijal al-Karami has been engaged in an uphill battle against criminal gangs affiliated to Maher al-Assad’s 4th Armored Division and Hezbollah, who have developed a number of trafficking operations in the Suwayda region that enable the regime to replenish its coffers, in particular that of captagon.
 
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