DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
any wiser heads than me able to see a turkey-syria link here? Turkey has a strong alawite bloc iirc? Look I'm shit at international stuff so do it abc
And next, Syria?
- Thread starter Idris2002
- Start date
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Refugee crisis still getting worse. Report on ITV just now.
http://www.channelstv.com/home/2013...syrian-refugee-camp-in-jordan-with-50m-euros/
http://www.channelstv.com/home/2013...syrian-refugee-camp-in-jordan-with-50m-euros/
I fully expect sihhi to tell me that I'm wrong as he knows more about this than me.
Alawi is the same word as Alevi in Turkish so there is some confusion as they both venerate Ali, son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammed, like the Shia.
The difference being the Alawites/Nusayri (Syrian) venerate Salman al-Farsi and also they celebrate Christmas.
There are hundreds of thousands of Alawites/Nusayri in Turkey but predominantly they speak Arabic.
The Alevi/Bektashi in Turkey number over 10 million. A very broad church with many who have converted from Christianity and Babism. Many are probably Armenians.
They conduct their religion in Turkish rather than Arabic, in Cemevi rather than Mosques, and do not have sex segregation.
The Alevi/Bektashi venerate Haji Bektash Veli rather than Salman al-Farsi.
The Alevi/Bektashi are even more syncretic than the Alawites/Nusayri with a mix of sufism and some practice Christian rites.
Not of course to neglect Yazdanism, Zorastrianism, Mithraism or Baha'ism.
To make things even more confusing some Alawites/Nusayri now speak Turkish and have adopted Alevi/Bektashi with all its similarities.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
I don't know about all the origins and differences and all that - but Nusayris in Hatay (formerly part of Mandate Syria) have been living in Turkey since 1938 and so under the Kemalist system underwent education and official culture in Turkish, hence a great many of the present generation are Turkish speakers. I think broadly those Nusayris that wanted to leave and not be part of Turkey did so in 1937-38.
Their religious inclinations mean they in general prefer a 'secular' approach - often defining themselves as Turkish citizen first - sometimes 'super-Turks' that's what happens to a lot of Turkey's border or remaining tiny groups Greeks, Jews, Circassians, Lazuris, Bulgarians other Balkans.
They do not in general want to talk about religion, certainly do not want to display it.
With the conflict in Syria:-
Some Sunni Arab Islamist Syrian refugees that have been allowed to leave the refugee camps now and do work in the fields dislike their 'Turkicised' 'wrong religion' co-linguists, and there is some level of friction (Arab Sunni versus 'Shiite' or 'idolator' in league with enemies).
I don't see them wanting to choose between either side in the war.
I'm probably oversimplifying things. Although DotCom did ask for an ABC.
Yes from what little I understand many consider the Alevi/Bektashi to be a secular left leaning political school of thought.
I didn't know about the refugees. It's not clear cut for sure.
Fuchs66
Ring a ding
Doesn't matter if they are closely aligned they are still a foreign militia fighting for the government of another country in a civil war, no different to the Jihadis with the exception of being better organised.
I'm glad you could find a side to pick in this situation, it must make things a lot simpler for you, as for me as far as I can see both sides are as bad as each other, the only difference being that government forces have the technological advantage (E2A largely due to the Russians cynically using this to play at cold-war-by-proxy again, and yes I do realise they aren't alone in this but they tend to do it without even pretending to give a shit about the carnage they help cause) that enables them to be so much more efficient in their killing.
Qusayr has fallen http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22778310 as expected however it's far from a rosy picture for Assad and co. Fisk's latest shows how Hezbollah have incurred heavy losses, both militarily and politcally, for their involvement. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...wages-costly-battle-for-survival-8641311.html
I don't think Russia has anything to do with it. Last thing Obama wants is another ME quagmire. After all he was the anti-war (Iraq) candidate in '08. There's very little support among the American public for getting involved in Syria.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Good interview in the Economist with some of the Al Nusra front types - these people control much of the border territory next to Turkey:
Syria has long been known for its sectarian diversity. How do you view the other sects?
The other sects are protected by the Islamic state. Muhammad, peace be upon him, had a Jewish neighbour, for example, and he was always good to him. But the power and authority must be with the believers [Sunnis], not the unbelievers.
What about other Sunnis who are more moderate than you?
We will apply sharia law to them.
What about Alawites?
Allah knows what will happen to them. There is a difference between the basic kuffar [infidels] and those who converted from Islam. If the latter, we must punish them. Alawites are included. Even Sunnis who want democracy are kuffar as are all Shia. It’s not about who is loyal and who isn’t to the regime; it’s about their religion. Sharia says there can be no punishment of the innocent and there must be punishment of the bad; that’s what we follow.
Did you lose or gain fighters following the announcement that you are linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq?
We’re with anything that represents real Islam, whether al-Qaeda or otherwise. If there is a better group, we’ll go with them instead. The effect of the announcement is that now we know our friends and our enemies. The good people will come to our side and the bad people will leave.
Many, maybe most, Syrians do not share your views. Do you care?
It would be great if the Syrians were with us but the kuffar are not important. Abraham and Sarah were facing all the infidels, for example, but they were doing the right thing. The number with us doesn’t matter.
Which other rebel groups do you see as acceptable? Ahrar al-Sham, another Salafist group, criticised your links to al-Qaeda.
I think only 5% of the battalions are against the Islamic vision. Ahrar al-Sham are a mixture of Islamists and people who like Allah so we are not sure about their vision. We are very clear as the Prophet, peace be upon him, made it very clear to us.
***
Some of the refugees into Turkey (not so much true of those into Lebanon and Jordan) have left northern Syria for Turkey (escaping from Sunni militias) for fear that they would be thought insufficiently Sunni ie having mixed families or not applying toght headscarving. Obviously the more you say you left from fear of Assad the less the Islamist types in the refugee camps themselves will hassle you.
Syria has long been known for its sectarian diversity. How do you view the other sects?
The other sects are protected by the Islamic state. Muhammad, peace be upon him, had a Jewish neighbour, for example, and he was always good to him. But the power and authority must be with the believers [Sunnis], not the unbelievers.
What about other Sunnis who are more moderate than you?
We will apply sharia law to them.
What about Alawites?
Allah knows what will happen to them. There is a difference between the basic kuffar [infidels] and those who converted from Islam. If the latter, we must punish them. Alawites are included. Even Sunnis who want democracy are kuffar as are all Shia. It’s not about who is loyal and who isn’t to the regime; it’s about their religion. Sharia says there can be no punishment of the innocent and there must be punishment of the bad; that’s what we follow.
Did you lose or gain fighters following the announcement that you are linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq?
We’re with anything that represents real Islam, whether al-Qaeda or otherwise. If there is a better group, we’ll go with them instead. The effect of the announcement is that now we know our friends and our enemies. The good people will come to our side and the bad people will leave.
Many, maybe most, Syrians do not share your views. Do you care?
It would be great if the Syrians were with us but the kuffar are not important. Abraham and Sarah were facing all the infidels, for example, but they were doing the right thing. The number with us doesn’t matter.
Which other rebel groups do you see as acceptable? Ahrar al-Sham, another Salafist group, criticised your links to al-Qaeda.
I think only 5% of the battalions are against the Islamic vision. Ahrar al-Sham are a mixture of Islamists and people who like Allah so we are not sure about their vision. We are very clear as the Prophet, peace be upon him, made it very clear to us.
***
Some of the refugees into Turkey (not so much true of those into Lebanon and Jordan) have left northern Syria for Turkey (escaping from Sunni militias) for fear that they would be thought insufficiently Sunni ie having mixed families or not applying toght headscarving. Obviously the more you say you left from fear of Assad the less the Islamist types in the refugee camps themselves will hassle you.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
[quote="Fuchs66, post: 12290533, member: 16274"
theyre a lebanese shia movement, 23 villages around qusair as well as extensive farmland are home to lebanese shia within syria , all of which were being cleansed by the jihadists . Their people , whom Hezbollah were created to defend, came under attack first and theyre very different from the jihadists . They certainly dont eat people either .
And it certainly does matter if western backed forces smash the alliance in that area, destabilise and fragment it and permit the zionists to waltz in unopposed . It matters a great deal .
I picked their side long before this conflict ever occured. Syria, Hezbollah and Iran..like it or not..comprise the axis of resistance in that region to zionist and imperialist aggression . Simple as that . Whether they are attacked overtly by those forces or by proxy forces supported by those powers makes no difference .
then plainly your outlook on the issue is limited simply to a bunch of foreign blokes that just like killing each other rather than the political and regional dynamics of whats going on . And doesnt have a great deal of problems with the imperialist powers using proxies to carve the region up , an issue your largely disinterested in and regard as peripheral .
theyre a lebanese shia movement, 23 villages around qusair as well as extensive farmland are home to lebanese shia within syria , all of which were being cleansed by the jihadists . Their people , whom Hezbollah were created to defend, came under attack first and theyre very different from the jihadists . They certainly dont eat people either .
And it certainly does matter if western backed forces smash the alliance in that area, destabilise and fragment it and permit the zionists to waltz in unopposed . It matters a great deal .
I picked their side long before this conflict ever occured. Syria, Hezbollah and Iran..like it or not..comprise the axis of resistance in that region to zionist and imperialist aggression . Simple as that . Whether they are attacked overtly by those forces or by proxy forces supported by those powers makes no difference .
then plainly your outlook on the issue is limited simply to a bunch of foreign blokes that just like killing each other rather than the political and regional dynamics of whats going on . And doesnt have a great deal of problems with the imperialist powers using proxies to carve the region up , an issue your largely disinterested in and regard as peripheral .
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
I am not in favour of either side - but here are 5 Islamist Bahraini cases in the Al Nusra - who as pointed above don't even regard ordinary "mosque only at festivals" "wear no real headscarves" Sunnis as proper Muslims.
Note that 2 of the killed have been military officers of the dictatorial Bahrain army - the BDF Bahraini Defence Forces - firing plastic bullets at mostly poor Shiite protestors in their villages and slums of Manama.
Why is the foreignness of Lebanese Hezbollah an issue but Bahraini Sunni Islamists not? Let's remember that for a long while Lebanon and Syria were both part of a French colonial unit, south western Syria is similar in 'culture'/lifestyle to Lebanon. There are those (much bigger during the Lebanese civil war) such as the Social Nationalist types in Lebanon who believe Lebanon and Syria should reunify. Some of Hezbollah's fighters are from Syria in the first place, hence the Lebanese anti-Hezbollah bloc accuse them of being foreign to Lebanon, yet the same people are now saying they should go not be in Syria.
I think the hypocrisy all round has not gone down.
Note that 2 of the killed have been military officers of the dictatorial Bahrain army - the BDF Bahraini Defence Forces - firing plastic bullets at mostly poor Shiite protestors in their villages and slums of Manama.
Why is the foreignness of Lebanese Hezbollah an issue but Bahraini Sunni Islamists not? Let's remember that for a long while Lebanon and Syria were both part of a French colonial unit, south western Syria is similar in 'culture'/lifestyle to Lebanon. There are those (much bigger during the Lebanese civil war) such as the Social Nationalist types in Lebanon who believe Lebanon and Syria should reunify. Some of Hezbollah's fighters are from Syria in the first place, hence the Lebanese anti-Hezbollah bloc accuse them of being foreign to Lebanon, yet the same people are now saying they should go not be in Syria.
I think the hypocrisy all round has not gone down.
Poo Flakes
Active Member
Will be interesting to see if Qusair has an impact on the conflict. We have had a lot of these 'decisive' battles already.
This could be leading up to a big conflict in Homs.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
large swathes of the population around qusair hold lebanese passports and its also a district where Hezbollah draw recruits from . Theyre not all that foreign to it . And the argument for the reunification of syria and lebanon is one id have time for myself .
And anyway despite being an admirer of the group I think their role here is being overinflated . Lebanon is a small country and HBs shia base only comprises around a quarter of its population . The group simply doesnt have the manpower to be running about Syria overrunning cities as is being claimed . Hezbollahs expertise and effectiveness lies in its ability to train ,direct and organise the locals in its Lebanese border areas, many of whom arent actual Hezbollah members . I strongly suspect that is the most effective thing theyve been engaged in among the villages around Qusair . And i also suspect its that strategy which has been helping turn the tide against the jihadists who were previously having a free rein in those districts and running roughshod over the locals . If theyve been shooting Lebanese soldiers dead for looking at them with binoculars god knows what they were doing to defenceless villagers of the wrong sect .
Its highly unlikely in an atmosphere of no warning zionist attacks that HB have uprooted the bulk of their membership from southern lebanon and decamped to syria . The Gulf research centre estimates Hezbollah only have 1000 full time active members and between 6 and ten thousand local volunteers who act in times of crisis . So we should be realistic here about the true scale of its role . Even if every single one of those people had decamped to Lebanon theyd still be a very small force in the feild . And the practical reality is only a small fraction of its small membership could conceivably be deployed in Syria . Theyre well trained and motivated but they arent supermen .
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Of course they are not supermen, and both sides do have trained fighters and officers to plan attacks. Hezbollah needs to be in Lebanon to still have the title of reistance/muqawamma if it disappears to Syria it loses credibility amongst its alliance partners in Lebanese if not its base.
Syrian Kurds are apparently going to meet Turkish officials in Diyarbakir the next couple of weeks.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
its certainly having an impact on the jihadists international backers, who appear to be growing ever more desperate to overtly intervene . Virtually as soon as the confirmation of the liberation of Qusair was announced Francois Holland announced France has proven..on its own..beyond any doubt...ffs..that the Syrian army has been using Sarin nerve gas all over Syria and the international community must now take action. The former colonial power see their ambition of being the current colonial power gravely threatened by this turn around on the battlefield.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22789455
Their loss of Qusair now means the jihadists stand absolutely no hope of overthrowing the governemnt, thats gone now and theyve effectively lost the war on the basis of being unable to win it tactically. While the government now stand every chance of uprooting the jihadists pretty much everywhere . A major funneling point for arms and fighters has now been taken out ,which will choke off a lot of other areas too and lead to more turn arounds . And so on . While the syrian army can in turn operate and resupply with a lot more ease . And morale . Which will mean more victories .
As Churchill said its not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning .
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
my good god, how is there ever going to be dialogue with people of that mindset?
Thats not the worldview of any muslim I have ever met. Thats, just, well its fucking intransigent. Us and them. Sectarian and horrible- look at where that logic leads. For fucks sake.
Idris2002
Christmas Eve, you know?
Jihadists....why the sudden anti jihadist sentiment among many here? And why single out one flavor of jihadists to oppose & others to root for? Sunni jihadists are bad (gee, this must include Hamas right?) and Hez, Iranian & Allawite jihadists are good.
Oh fuck off.
If you can't handle the question, throw a childish insult.
Idris2002
Christmas Eve, you know?
Fuck off.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
your question was a childish insult to everyones intelligence
just because someones a muslim doesnt make them a jihadist . The Syrian Arab Army is predominantly sunni muslim . They arent jihadists . Theres quite a few christians among its number too . Neither Iran or HB are there to cleanse sunnis and christians or to convert anyone to shia orthodoxy . Neither or the Alawaites, Druze, twelvers..
Assad has plenty of sunni muslim support, its the primary reason why hes still in power two years on . Your classification of those people as jihadists is not just idiotic and lazy but kind of reeking of prejudice against muslims in general . As well as assuming everyone on the government side is a muslim . When theres 300,000 syrian christian refugees driven out by the jihadists .
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This is one sunni muslim cleric's take on it, which does confound the "all sunni's are cannibal terrorists who are in league with Al-Queada" stuff that's reared it's ugly head. Also directly references the killing of Lee Rigby.
So, you're not against jihadists at all. Just the ones who are trying to overthrow Assad. 300,000 Christians driven out.....among over 1.5 million refugees driven out, most by Assad's goons I'd say. The primary reason Assad is still in power is due to Hez & Iranian fighters & support.....& Putin's. We don't know how much Sunni support Assad has since it could simply be fear of a bloody dictator with a massive internally security apparatus.
I wouldn't respond to that kind of idiocy if I were Casually Red.
I'd say it's far more likely that the armed Salafist fundamentalists groups that'd be responsible for that. Some of them are just armed gangs that go around looting places that have given themselves names like "Lions of Allah" and use the Al-Queada flag to scare people.
Don't be daft. Hezbollah's sent a few thousand soldiers to one particular battle. The Syrian army numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Iran's in a terrible state too. They're under sanctions, oil exports are at record lows, now it's having carry the burden in propping up Assad financially and it just can't do it. This is what it's all about - the US and Israel weakening Iran. Assad might have his little victories but the balance of power in the region as a result of this favours the US. No matter how this war ends, the old Syria that formed the "Axis of resistance" to Western interests is gone, and Iran's lost one of their most important alies. Whatever emerges out the other side of this sectarian war will be much weaker than the Syria that went before it.
I think the reason he's still in power 2 years on is that a substantial chunk of Syria's population, which is predominantly sunni muslims, consider it a better option than the power vacuum, followed by armed sectarian gangs fighting each other for the remnants like Libya at the moment, which would follow the end of the regime. Like what happened in Afghanistan during after the withdrawl of the soviet union, like Iraq fell apart (and is falling apart, again, destabilised by eventsin Syria)
As for Assad's "massive internally security apparatus" it doesn't look that impregnable to me. The "internal security apparatus" hasn't actually done Assad many favours, it's the Syrian Arab Army that's saved his arse not the Shabiha's, who's brutality in being unleashed on the pro-democracy protestors was a massive miscalculation and help set in motion these terrible events.
If Israel & the US are the beneficiaries of all this, they haven't done much to promote it. Israel has bombed a few weapons sites. The US has provided some aid & small arms & Obama makes a statement once in a while. It's Europe, mainly France that's chomping at the bit to help the rebels. Israel sits back & watches it's enemies slaughter each other.
And of course it was Assad who unleashed them. Syria is supposed to have over a dozen internal security organizations. I saw some in Damascus when daddy Assad was in power. They saunter around the streets with sub machine guns slung over their shoulders & wear arm patches with images of the royal family embroidered on them....sharp uniforms.....Assad's SS.
And thanks for supporting what I've been saying all along. This didn't start with jihadists. They came in later.
Ask yourself why that might be? Jesus wept. Britain and France are American lapdogs. Yes, even France, when push comes to shove. Obama doesn't want to be associated with warmongering, wise move politically in the US, so he's doing it via proxy. What part of this is hard to understand?
More soft anti-semitism Tom? Were they laughing maniacally and lighting cigars whilst they do? Please leave this sort of dumb rhetoric out.
I don't get this, I never disputed this. What I'm saying is if Syria's security organisations were so effective this wouldn't have happened in the first place. And in the final summation it's taken the armed forced, not the security services, to regain some stability for Assad's regime.
Yeah no shit, but they're there now and that's what matters.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
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