meh. only a recent split. if that is the only fault you can find in my post, then march on. you are irrelevant (no offence).
And next, Syria?
- Thread starter Idris2002
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meh. only a recent split. if that is the only fault you can find in my post, then march on. you are irrelevant (no offence).
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Say whah...
You realize Turkey has been elbow-deep in this thing for many months right? The explosion in Turkey was if anything their first taste of blow-back.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
theyve since publicly kissed and made up despite their previous little spat , ambassadors back at their posts, Turkey dropping its legal actions against IDF soldiers , Israel apologising and paying compensation . Its back to business as usual because their common interest in winning in Syria demands they restore their relationship .
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/22/israel-apologises-turkey-gaza-flotilla-deaths
According to White House officials aboard Air Force One, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu placed a call to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan while closeted with Obama in a trailer on the tarmac at Ben Gurion airport in the last minutes before the president's departure for Jordan. Obama joined the call at one point.
http://www.imemc.org/article/65436
Israeli Yedioth Aharonoth quoted Israeli officials stating that the apology made by Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, for the death of nine Turkish activists on board the MV Marmara solidarity ship, on May 31 2010, allowed Israel to operate freely in the north without fearing a confrontation with Ankara.
The officials said that the reconciliation and good relations with Turkey would eventually lead to a future regional cooperation “against Iran and terrorist groups in the region”.
They also said that the current relations with Turkey also granted Israel an enormous international support regarding air strikes carried out, last Sunday and Thursday, against Syrian targets, especially U.S. and British support.
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
I think you've both said something worth considering on this point.
That was just the most obvious fault. Your whole outlook is quite mad. Do you even know that Assad is not playing the sectarian card that you are and that the bulk of his support comes from Sunnis?
This is all true but it does not mean that they are so close as to be chastised by each other for having differing strategic visions in Syria.
Edit: You are alleging a conspiracy here. There are no doubt conspiracies over Syria, but you forget that the conspirators are also conspiring against each other. I'm just waiting for the Saudi-Qatari rivalries to explode.
yeah yeah. heard it already. the army consists of mostly sunnis. blah blah. You fail to see the wider picture (not surprising).
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
What are the Turks gaining from this apart from the 200,000 Syrian refugees they are having to provide for?
http://reliefweb.int/report/turkey/unhcr-turkey-syrian-refugee-daily-sitrep-27-may-2013
and the prospect of an independent Kurdistan rising out of the new borders of the Middle East.
What I do recognise is defensive rhetoric, though. That I have failed to convince you is not a winning argument and your ability to maintain your stance despite all it's abundant and obvious problems is indeed an extraordinary feat but not one to be admired.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
they corrected the mistake by assassinating most of the previous leadership . Since that objective was attained they havent made any move in the direction of assassinating its current leadership for quite a while now .
And its quite likely now the syrian baathists having faced and currently facing an actual existential threat to themselves , their families, their regions and indeed their entire nation may well now become radicalised out of sheer necessity as well as the experience . As Fisk reported some time back his strong impression was the opreviously demoralised Syrian army was on the move with a new sense of purpose and morale . Thats been borne out by recent events, and add to that a very close alignment now with the likes of Hezbollah in ground fighting, an influx to their ranks of Arabs from Israeli occupied territory and you could well have a very heady mix in the making . Syrian Baathism of even 4 or 5 years ago is dead now . Youve no way at all of predicting whats likely to emerge now its faced an existential threat . Except its unlikely to revert to its previous form now all the players around them have irrevocably played their hands .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
what does Erdogan gain, theyre not camped out in his back garden
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
What does he gain? I just edited in a bit about the increasing prospect of an independent Kurdistan forming.
Well, they assassinated a leading figure during Pillar of Clouds.
Casually Red said:
OK that's some interesting points there, but your last sentence lets you down. I'm not saying things are predictable but rather less predictable than you think. For example Assad cutting a deal with Israel seems quite possible to me - "stay out of Lebanon, drop Hezbollah and we'll clean out Southern Syria for you".
I think you are way too optimistic (really not the right word) about Hezbollah and Palestinian support for Assad. Hezbollah is mainly fighting a defensive battle against Sunni sectarian forces they are not enthusiasts for Assad for the sake of Assad and they will remember his dad's support for the Amal, further Nasrallah really does not want civil war in Lebanon and when it breaks out will be more than occupied with that rather than saving the Syrian regime. Palestinians are utterly split on Syria and are not in a strong position anyway and further the elements that are supportive of the regime are either the most pusilanimous (Fatah) or the more unrepresentative and nutty (PFLP-GC) factions.
Not all the rebels are jihadists.
If you're opposed to Jihadists being armed, are you opposed to Hamas, Hez & Iran being armed? They're jihadists.
The Economist has provided a nice chart of the main armed groups in Syria. Have fun finding the non-Jihadist forces.
http://www.economist.com/news/middl...are-being-squeezed-between-regimes-forces-and
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
thats highly unlikely given the recent actions of the Kurdish Gerry Adams and the deal Erdogan arrived at with him
Another writer in the paper, Yalcin Dogan, says the "PKK clearly gave up dividing [Turkey]".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21874427
Its almost ..in fact it is..exactly the same script as the terms of the provos defeat and subsumation into mainstream legitmacy in return for abandoning their goal of independence and national sovereignty in exchange for tribalised rights and prisoner releases . The PKK are now being very deliberately legitmised in Turkey in exactly the same manner Sinn Fein were in this part of the world. Theres no danger of an independent Kurdistan in Turkey , none.
Erdogan dreams of being a modern Ottoman Sultan, a major player and power in the Middle East as well as in Europe . This is about his personal ambition and ego and his self inflated sense of purpose and legacy . Like all such madmen from Hitler to Blair it doesnt matter how many little people die to see it fulfilled .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
have fun finding them in the NTC alternative government as well .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
why on earth would Israel cut such a deal with an Iranian ally...its not on the cards . Given the range of foreign powers seeking their existential liquidation the syrian Baathists are reliant on both Iran and Hezbollah to combat that existential threat .
Meanwhile despite all that jihadist rhetoric about Israel over the years theres been no threat to Israeli troops coming from the jihadists even in the midst of 2 years of chaos . In fact Im fucked if i can think of a single instance of Al Qaeda doing anything of substance against Israel . Even their elements in Gaza seem more interested in kidnapping and murdering European solidarity activists than anything else .
All the threats about the future emanating from the jihadists are aimed squarely at Syrian minorities such as shia, alawites, druze, christians, as well as the Syrian majority.. the Sunni arabs who wont join them . And now their making noises about elements of the PKK ...and sections of the population in Lebanon . And all their threats are backed up by actually killing those people . 2 years of chaos and they havent gone near the Israelis at all . They arent a threat to them . Israeli propaganda abpout them posing one is simply a handy ruse that justifies their regular incursions and interference in Syria itself . But those are only for one purpose and thats to help wipe out the Syrian governemnt and armed forces .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
where did i say they were..i said this radicalisation could well be borne out of necessity as well as experience, its what radicalised Hezbollah to begin with . An existential threat to Lebanon as well as the people from whom they draw their support . The same conditions are at play in Syria, writ even larger
where on earth did I even hint at him wanting civil war in Lebanon, all the evidence has been he has always sought very hard to avoid one . Despite its shia origins and predominance Hezbollah is a national resistance movement that works closely with all elements of Lebanese society in the defence of Lebanon. Its success against Israel was wholly based on this strategy , of training and arming villages that comprised different sects and even working alongisde socialists . Thats their main role along the border with Syria . Training, arming, leading and advising the locals faced with jihadist occupation .And many of those locals despite living in Syria regard themselves as Lebanese . Should civil war break out in Lebanon, a syrian province in all but name, it will merely be an extension of the Syrian one . Theyll be fighting the same enemy .
Im not even talking about the Palestinians, Im talking about the Syrian arabs from the sizable chunk of Syria that Israel annexed for itself . Theyre entering the fray now and backing the government as well as their families who are being massacred for backing the government.
Simple - better the devil they know. The Assad regime has posed no threat to Israel or even the Golan Heights over the years. Israel's big concern is Hezbollah and if the Syrian regime can be persuaded to ditch Hezbollah, which it is only allied to as a matter of convenience, then I don't see why they wouldn't cut a deal. This may be an unlikely scenario but it seems quite possible to me. You may be forgetting certain things such as the fact that Ba'athists have been careful to keep the Palestinian refugees disarmed and passive. In Yarmouk refugee camp the pro-rebel forces won out over the pro-regime forces. So as an alternative to a quiet border with Assad they now have Hamas and it's Syrian allies armed to the teeth. There is clearly a debate going on amongst the military and political elites in Israel over which is the least bad option for them - support the regime, support the rebels, prolong the conflict. I suspect prolong the conflict is their best option, but there's all sorts of geo-political and anti-terrorism concerns and it seems to be on a knife-edge. Expect the unexpected.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
they know the saudis and the emirates very well, and thats wholl be calling the shots if the Syrian government falls . So theyve little to fear from there .Syria was aligned to HB long long before this kicked off , it cant ditch them . Theres no reason why its good to do so and planty of reasons why its bad to do so . If Damascus was to fall the Syrian govt needs HB to ensure its access to the coast and its Alawi redoubts . The co dependence between the 2 groups is existential . If Damascus abandons HB its also of much less use to Iran to keep a co dependence , so that vital relationship becomes endangered too. Its not on the cards and never was , never will be .
Im not forgetting that at all . Even armed and unpassive refugees simply arent going to beat the Israeli army so there was a cynical realpolitik involved in maintaining a ceasfire . That ceasefires off now and the Palestinians have been given free reign to operate along the border .
it wouldnt be the first, or even second time the Palestinians have gone and backed the wrong horse .
CyberRose
أرفع الشفرات
While I agree the Syrian-Hizballah alliance is one of convenience, that's quite a good reason to maintain it.
Iran needs Syria for a supply route to Lebanese Hizballah and Iran is backed by Russia - and therefore so is Syria whilst ever it is useful to Iran (i.e. when it is helping to supply Hizballah) - that's quite a useful insurance policy for the Syrians (or they have no choice but to do Iran/Russia's bidding or face the end of the Assad regime)
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
and its not just out of convenience but necessity . Even if this current debacle wasnt going on Syria needs HB as an influential player inside Lebanon and as a counterfoil to Zionist agression too. HB being the best one there is . Syria also wants its territory back , and HB are the best agency out there to have a chance of it . I think its quite likely that if the jihadists are routed that could well be HBs next move, into Syrian territory in Golan in order to reclaim it from the zionists.
You confuse gulf state backed militias with gulf state controlled militias. You keep slipping into a conspiratorial mode of thinking.
Casually Red said:
Not that long and before that they were backing their enemies in the Amal and before that the Phalanges.
Casually Red said:
So? The Syrians can find new allies in Lebanon - there's plenty of potentials.
Casually Red said:
Why is that relation vital? What is Iran doing to save the Syrian regime?
Casually Red said:
Well I suppose they're not going to pose an immediate existential threat to Israel...
Casually Red said:
There really isn't a right horse.
This argument only makes sense if you think Russia needs Iran to supply Hizballah with weapons. I really don't think that's what Russia is about.
They couldn't give a stuff about Zionist aggression or the Golan Heights. The regime has been utterly cowardly and has backed Israel's ally, the fucking Phalanges in Lebanon during a bout of Zionist aggression. They care about maintaining their brutal regime.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
they most certainly give a stuff about zionist aggression when its directed at them . Syria has always used a proxy force either to strike out at meddlers or to make meddlers think twice .
leaving aside the fact your talking about a previous regime that also launched an existential all out assault on Israel , such was its cowardice, back then there was little common ground to be had with Hezbollah, who were in the habit of killing anyone of secular bent and would take nothing to do with a secular state . Now they work..and fight.. hand in hand with Lebanese socialists . Times changed, Hezbollah changed, Daddy Assad is dead..trying to shoehorn those formulas into todays situation is a waste of everyones time. Syria wont be abandoning Hezbollah or vice versa..its a ridiculous theory to try and promote .
I don't think there's going to be a Russian Israeli war. For a start the very notion Israel would indepedently attack Russian is absurd - any Israeli strike on Russian military personnel would be considered an American attack by proxy in Russia. And it's not going to happen. People massively overstate how much Israel can operate independently of the US when it comes to international affairs. It's not Israel that underwrites the cost the US armed forces budget....
This just a bit of American US sabre rattling towards Russia in the run up to these Geneva talks being performed by the Israeli clent state. Obama doesn't want to cause too much of a fuss, for obvious reasons (see Cuban missile crisis) so it's being said through an American proxy. This is something that partially explains why Britain and France are pushing arming the rebels in the EU, with zero support, they're being good little client states for Washington. Those Tridents and that place at the UN comes at a price. It's politically impossible for Obama to commit to intervening in Syria, I think it's safe to say he'd prefer not to be sending American soldiers into this quagmire, so he's getting the underlings to put the pressure on for him.
Anyway here's an interesting article. This one from a syrian liberal activist, involved in the early days of the revolution in it's peaceful stage http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/syria-revolution-aleppo-assad.html This highlights an important aspect overlooked in much of the commentary we hear, the class composition of the rebellion, the underlying conflict between poor, rural generally sunni and conservative Syrians with the more cosmopolitan urban middle-classes living in places like Aleppo and Damascus. Worth bookmarking.
This just a bit of American US sabre rattling towards Russia in the run up to these Geneva talks being performed by the Israeli clent state. Obama doesn't want to cause too much of a fuss, for obvious reasons (see Cuban missile crisis) so it's being said through an American proxy. This is something that partially explains why Britain and France are pushing arming the rebels in the EU, with zero support, they're being good little client states for Washington. Those Tridents and that place at the UN comes at a price. It's politically impossible for Obama to commit to intervening in Syria, I think it's safe to say he'd prefer not to be sending American soldiers into this quagmire, so he's getting the underlings to put the pressure on for him.
Anyway here's an interesting article. This one from a syrian liberal activist, involved in the early days of the revolution in it's peaceful stage http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/syria-revolution-aleppo-assad.html This highlights an important aspect overlooked in much of the commentary we hear, the class composition of the rebellion, the underlying conflict between poor, rural generally sunni and conservative Syrians with the more cosmopolitan urban middle-classes living in places like Aleppo and Damascus. Worth bookmarking.
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