And next, Syria?
- Thread starter Idris2002
- Start date
bendeus
Bellend Tagline Generator
Casually Red, where are you sourcing this from? All we get through the western media mouthpieces is an unwinnable quagmire. I actually have fuck all idea how things are actually progressing on the battlefield, partly because my limited knowledge of Syrian geography is drawn from having travelled through it from Jordan to Turkey many years ago (better than most then, I guess) and partly because of the uneven nature of the conflict insomuch as there doesn't appear to be one demarcated frontline but many big and small across regions, towns and cities.
Is this kosher?
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
Absolutely . I posted that robert fisk article a few weeks back where he felt quite strongly the Syrian army appeared to have shook off its previous demoralisation and was looking revitalised and invigorated . They seemed highly motivated according to him . And he aslo believed they seemed to be starting to win .
Ive seen numerous reports since that backs that view up, from RT news, Al Jazeera and others . Along with reports of the rebel groups abandoninbg positions along the Lebanese border and basically legging it . They seem at this point to be on the verge of retaking another strategic rebel stronghold.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013519124646578835.html
bendeus
Bellend Tagline Generator
Fisk seems solid on Syria (IMO) so yeah, I'll take that. As I say, it all seems so splintered. I remember when the battle for Aleppo was being touted as 'decisive', and then there appeared to be some rebel gains as well as mushrooming violence in Damascus suburbs as well as very highly profiled captures of 'strategic' military bases, including airbases, as well as oilfields and border posts by the rebels. The narrative seemed very much to be about ongoing rebel gains and the hollowing out of the morale and fighing potency of the Syrian regulars.
If this is the case surely the chances of western intervention in the worn-out old guise of a no-fly-zone will loom ever closer? Would they do this over Russian objections?
If this is the case surely the chances of western intervention in the worn-out old guise of a no-fly-zone will loom ever closer? Would they do this over Russian objections?
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
basically its been since this series of rebel reverses started happening accross syria that the hullaballoo about chemical weapons has arisen . Accompanied by the provocative Israeli airstrikes and the Turkey bombing, immediately blamed on Syria without even a shred of proof produced .
It seems theres at least 3 scenarios which have arisen at roughly the same time which if they developed the right way could be used as justification for foreign escalation and direct intervention.
I think Russia is aware of this, and it looks to me like theyve decided not just to object but also to supply Syria with the most up to date anti aircraft and anti ship missile systems . Which may well decide that argument on a risk versus reward basis .
It seems theres at least 3 scenarios which have arisen at roughly the same time which if they developed the right way could be used as justification for foreign escalation and direct intervention.
I think Russia is aware of this, and it looks to me like theyve decided not just to object but also to supply Syria with the most up to date anti aircraft and anti ship missile systems . Which may well decide that argument on a risk versus reward basis .
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
basically on the ground from what i can gather the syrian army has now taken strategic positions right up to the Turkish, Jordanian and Lebanese border regions . Thats hampering the oppositions major supply routes as well as making it much easier for the national armies forces to move and resupply.The jihadists are also being contained and encircled in the towns theyve previously overrun, cut off from supplies and reinforcements and being methodically defeated in those districts.
The other day the jihadists also attempted a massive raid on a syrian prison but it appears that was repulsed as well .
I was watching Al Jazeera the other day which had a very pro rebel documentary, unsurprisingly given Qatars role in the conflict, and at the end even they admitted a beseiged airforce base which featured heavily in it had since been secured by the army and the rebel forces driven out of the area .
Theyre being defeated all over the place as far as i can make out .
The other day the jihadists also attempted a massive raid on a syrian prison but it appears that was repulsed as well .
I was watching Al Jazeera the other day which had a very pro rebel documentary, unsurprisingly given Qatars role in the conflict, and at the end even they admitted a beseiged airforce base which featured heavily in it had since been secured by the army and the rebel forces driven out of the area .
Theyre being defeated all over the place as far as i can make out .
camouflage
gaslit at scale.
Agreed, Assad has said himself that he fully expects some sort of direct foreign intervention 8s imminent of the basis of Syrian army successes. The Russians have sent 12 warships into the shizzle, strong signal there.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
heres some links to the actions Ive been referring to which have a lot more detail
The army now is breaking the siege on Wadi al-Daif encampments in northwestern Syria to secure the road between the central province of Hama and the northwestern province of Idlib all the way to Aleppo province, media reports said.
It also said that the road between the capital Damascus and the southern province of Daraa and the borders with Jordan is open, adding that the army is "cleansing" the road between Damascus and the central province of Homs in the areas of Jobar, al-Nabek and al-Qalamoun.
The operation has also included border areas near the Lebanese frontier, namely al-Qussair and Talkalakh.
The operation apparently aimed at securing network of routes connecting several Syrian areas as a prelude to besiege the rebels for decisive battles.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-04/17/c_132317661.htm
In a sense, Qusair had already fallen militarily, since the rebels appear to have lost control of most of the surrounding villages and countryside adjacent to the Lebanese border.
It adds to a string of setbacks rebels have suffered in recent weeks, especially along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders and around Damascus itself.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22586378
they cant even withdraw now in either direction to Homs or Damascus , totally cut off, no hope of reinforcements or supplies.
The army now is breaking the siege on Wadi al-Daif encampments in northwestern Syria to secure the road between the central province of Hama and the northwestern province of Idlib all the way to Aleppo province, media reports said.
It also said that the road between the capital Damascus and the southern province of Daraa and the borders with Jordan is open, adding that the army is "cleansing" the road between Damascus and the central province of Homs in the areas of Jobar, al-Nabek and al-Qalamoun.
The operation has also included border areas near the Lebanese frontier, namely al-Qussair and Talkalakh.
The operation apparently aimed at securing network of routes connecting several Syrian areas as a prelude to besiege the rebels for decisive battles.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-04/17/c_132317661.htm
In a sense, Qusair had already fallen militarily, since the rebels appear to have lost control of most of the surrounding villages and countryside adjacent to the Lebanese border.
It adds to a string of setbacks rebels have suffered in recent weeks, especially along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders and around Damascus itself.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22586378
they cant even withdraw now in either direction to Homs or Damascus , totally cut off, no hope of reinforcements or supplies.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
the west simply wont attack anyone who can actually fight back . Russia has decided now to give Syria the means to effectively defend itself with the most up to date systems that most definitely can take out any western aircraft in existence as well as those anti carrier missiles. While its not a means of winning its most definitely a stiff deterrent that guarantees serious losses to any aggressor .The Russians may well have also given Assad the green light to retaliate against Israel in the Golan, a lot of rumours floating about thats what Putin told Bibi the other week after Bibi hurriedly dropped in for an urgent chat. Hes now off bothering the chinese after getting short shrift from Putin.
with the new missiles Assad now has quite an effective umbrella for any ground force he might send there. The lebanese conflict has amply illustrated how reliant the Israeli forces are on air cover, and how vulnerable even their elite brigades are in ground combat against a well trained foe even with that aircover. And his allies in Iran and Hezbollah would take absolute glee in such a development if it could be effectively managed .
The syrian army today is a very different animal than a few years ago, experienced and battle hardened and it doesnt take a lot of figuring out that its quite likely having faced this direct existential threat to both himself and Syria that Assad will have become more than a tad radicalised .
Already hes given the Palestinians a very open green light to start mounting operations against the Zionists in the Golan heights .
All getting a bit serious now hes winning
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
and it has to be reiterated the Syrian Arab Army is majority Sunni. Without the support of his Sunni fellow citizens Assad would have been gone long ago.
bendeus
Bellend Tagline Generator
I could really use a map with two opposing bold colours defining areas of control, conflict, etc. and some clear icons to show what the fuck is going on to get a handle on this. A war in the eye of the information age, and yet nothing in the way of understanding. It's understandable why the Western media would want to obfuscate on the makeup of the FSA and the fighting units on the ground, but it's odd that no graphics appear to have popped up to show what's happening where. Some fucker must know.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
go to about 2 40 on the vid
Hmm are those pictures showing up???
Anyway. Syria and Israel exchange fire in the Golan Heights, Syria claiming to have destroyed an Israeli vehicle killing everyone in it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/21/syria-israel-exchange-fire-golan-heights
Anyway. Syria and Israel exchange fire in the Golan Heights, Syria claiming to have destroyed an Israeli vehicle killing everyone in it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/21/syria-israel-exchange-fire-golan-heights
I suppose I'd better link this here, a lot of interesting stuff. Very grim of course.
http://www.liveleak.com/c/syria
It was reported that Assad had positioned surface-to-surface missiles to target Tel Aviv in case of futher Israeli attacks in Syria. The missiles are the Fateh-110 ones, which are losely based on the old FROG-7 missiles the Soviet Union used to operate except with modern guidance systems attached. Nasty weapons these, a old (more or less obsolete) variant was used on American soldiers in the 2003 Iraq war. As wikipedia states:
This was in a war that othewise the United States recieved little or no resistance. This was one of the few weapons that could actually inflict casualities upon a state of the art modern western army. They can be fitted with chemical nuclear and biological warheads and are a very nasty proposition. If a few of those got unleashed on Israel then this would all spiral out of control very quickly. Robert Fisk was saying in one of his interviews that if the Syrian regimes fears it's on the verge of defeat there's a good chance they might, as a sort of "Samson option" try and internationalise the conflict, a desperate strategy (the Israeli counter-attack would be overwhelming) and a very dark ending to this. Hard to know what kind of a world we'd be living in at that point really, how does it stop after that?
http://www.liveleak.com/c/syria
hopefully it doesn't escalate
It was reported that Assad had positioned surface-to-surface missiles to target Tel Aviv in case of futher Israeli attacks in Syria. The missiles are the Fateh-110 ones, which are losely based on the old FROG-7 missiles the Soviet Union used to operate except with modern guidance systems attached. Nasty weapons these, a old (more or less obsolete) variant was used on American soldiers in the 2003 Iraq war. As wikipedia states:
This was in a war that othewise the United States recieved little or no resistance. This was one of the few weapons that could actually inflict casualities upon a state of the art modern western army. They can be fitted with chemical nuclear and biological warheads and are a very nasty proposition. If a few of those got unleashed on Israel then this would all spiral out of control very quickly. Robert Fisk was saying in one of his interviews that if the Syrian regimes fears it's on the verge of defeat there's a good chance they might, as a sort of "Samson option" try and internationalise the conflict, a desperate strategy (the Israeli counter-attack would be overwhelming) and a very dark ending to this. Hard to know what kind of a world we'd be living in at that point really, how does it stop after that?
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
except barely a month ago Robert Fisk was saying very clearly that the Syrian Arab Army were winning, and that was well before the major turnovers of the cannibal gangs weve witnessed in the last few weeks . And the arrival of Russian warships and state of the art hardwaee Which sort of puts your desperation of madmen on the brink of defeat theory into the doghouse .
Syria claimed the zionists had made an armed incursion into its territory - the Syrian territory Israel doesnt happen to occupy . Not withstanding the fact Israel has now launched 3 seperate unprovoked military assaults on Syria in recent months which have killed hundreds, the very article youve linked to also points out at the very end
Meanwhile a Syrian rebel seriously injured in fighting across the border was treated in the Ziv hospital in northern Israel. Israel Radio said the man had been brought initially to an IDF field hospital by Israeli soldiers. It did not explain how Israeli forces reached the injured man.
which makes it blatantly obvious that the zionists have indeed been making armed ground incursions into the bit of Syria Israel hasnt stolen . And that on this occasion theyve most likely been confronted by the defence forces of the country theyre carrying out overt and covert hostilities against .
None of this ever seems to sink in with various mindsets
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
heres fox news of all people just days ago broadcasting footage of Israeli commandos operating inside Syria , although their claims to be hunting jihadists are just laughable
Yes he was saying that. He also said that if (I'll repeat that for you in big letters) IF they felt they were going to lose they'd try to internationalise the conflict, the samson option, but as they were seeming to be winning for the time being it wasn't likely to happen.
It's not my theory, it's his.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
yeah, its his theory youve put forward in an attempt to insinuate Syria are looking to kick off with Israel because theyre losing against the foreign jihadists . When they arent and are in fact beating them.
Id have thought its patently obvious Syria would be directing weapons against Israel due to the simple fact Israel keep unilaterally carrying out repeated attacks on Syria and killing hundreds of Syrians . Its pretty much what any country would do if someone kept coming in and dropping bombs on them . In fact just pointing a missile as opposed to firing it seems to me to be remarkably constrained .
the bit you never thought to include earlier
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
i think this is a pretty interesting interview recently given to turkish television by the Syrian president, here he gives his analysis of whats going on and why and what he thinks is likely to happen . And in particular the alliance between Turkey, Israel, the US, the role of the kurds in the region etc . Very informative
teqniq
DisMembered
Poo Flakes
Active Member
Does anyone know what 'control' actually means in this conflict? So, the 'rebels' control the River Euphrates (with a contentested town on it). What does this mean in practice?
JimW
支那暗杀团
I take it to mean their fighters operate largely unopposed there.
Poo Flakes
Active Member
Yeah, I thought it might. Not sure how reliable that map is, tbh.
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
reports today of the rebel NTC conference in Istanbul descending into disarray for the 3rd day running . Its totally dominated by hardline islamists who wont give the more secular moderates sufficient seats to give them veto powers, moderates refusing to participate unless all their demands are met . Utter chaos . And thats just from Al jazeera who like to give them some good spin .
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013525101221796276.html
So with even their freinds openly admitting it theres no doubt at all now the supposed alternative government of Syria the west wants to install is nothing more than a disparate collection of wahhabist extremists and hatemongers, who cant even tack on a few moderates to take the bad look off themselves .
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/2013525101221796276.html
So with even their freinds openly admitting it theres no doubt at all now the supposed alternative government of Syria the west wants to install is nothing more than a disparate collection of wahhabist extremists and hatemongers, who cant even tack on a few moderates to take the bad look off themselves .
Similar threads
