And next, Syria?

[TomUS]

and it has to be reiterated the Syrian Arab Army is majority Sunni. Without the support of his Sunni fellow citizens Assad would have been gone long ago.

Is it support or is it fear of a ruthless dictatorship that has a huge internal security apparatus to crush opposition? Just as with Gaddafi or any dictator, it's pretty meaningless to talk about support of the population. If you don't support the dictator, you're imprisoned, tortured and/or killed.

I'd say the main reason Assad has survived so far isn't because of "support" of his Sunni fellow citizens, but "support" from Hez & Iranian fighters & Putin.

 

[thriller]

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah vows victory in Syria

The leader of the Lebanese Shia militant Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, has promised his supporters they will prevail in Syria, where they are backing President Bashar al-Assad.
"This battle is ours... and I promise you victory,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22669230

In a televised speech from an undisclosed location, Mr Hasrallah said if Sunni Islamists took over in Syria, they would pose a threat to the entire Lebanese population - Shia and Sunni Muslims, as well as Christians

Yaaaaaaay.

A public nailing of the flag to the mast. May God grant you victory Mr Nasrallah, Sir. I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability. May victory continue to grant you weapons to defend humanity and justice. For it is you and your liberation movement alone who stands and fights for justice against Zionist aggression and occupation while the weak Sunni arab governments stand by and do nothing.

 

[thriller]

Funeral of a fallen brave liberator. RIP-hero.

 

[Knotted]

A public nailing of the flag to the mast. May God grant you victory Mr Nasrallah, Sir. I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability. For it is you and your liberation movement alone who stands and fights for justice against Zionist aggression while the weak Sunni arab governments stand by and do nothing.

Israeli analysts aren't so sure:

The upside? As long as Assad remains in control of even a reduced part of the country – along with its vast weapons stockpiles and the newly acquired S-300 missiles – rebel groups will be more focused on battling his forces than on attacking Israel. Indeed, many senior Israeli political and defense officials now say that’s the preferred scenario.

"Better the devil we know than the devils we can only imagine if Syria falls into chaos and the extremists from across the Arab world gain a foothold there, “ said one Israeli intelligence officer in the north, who spoke only on the condition that he not be identified because he wasn’t authorized to speak to reporters. “If Syria is going to fight, and if they are going to fight with deadly weapons, better they busy themselves fighting each other than fighting us."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/24/192186/israel-in-reassessment-thinks.html#.UaEAs9KOSSo

If the establishment and defence of forces in Syria that can do serious damage to Israel is your only concern then back the rebels. The Assads have given Israel a very easy time and backed Hezbollah's rivals Amal in the 1980's when Hezbollah was fighting Israel. You want to trust the cynical power politics of Syrian Ba'athism? You're a very trusting person.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Good for Israel as the Arabs slaughter each other, bad for the people of Syria who opposed Assad's murderous regime and are being killed not only by their own government, but now by Hezbollah. Still, I'm sure they'll get rid of Assad at some point. Maybe in a year, a couple of years or more. Too many people looking for revenge for him to survive this.

 

[CyberRose]

A public nailing of the flag to the mast. May God grant you victory Mr Nasrallah, Sir. I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability. May victory continue to grant you weapons to defend humanity and justice. For it is you and your liberation movement alone who stands and fights for justice against Zionist aggression and occupation while the weak Sunni arab governments stand by and do nothing.

What's with all the sectarianism? You've been coming out with shit like this for weeks, is it supposed to be a joke? Ironic? Or are you actually being serious?

 

[thriller]

What's with all the sectarianism? You've been coming out with shit like this for weeks, is it supposed to be a joke? Ironic? Or are you actually being serious?

Its the Sunnis that have always made it sectarian. The shia just want peace. The sunnis bomb and give Islam the bad image that it has around the world. 99.9999% of terrorism is perputated by Sunnis.

 

[JimW]

Long-ish article by Patrick Cockburn up at the LRB, mostly setting out the shape of the regional context as the war spreads: http://www.lrb.co.uk/2013/05/23/patrick-cockburn/is-it-the-end-of-sykes-picot

 

[Delroy Booth]

btw thrillers recent posts have been nothing but pure bigotry, that if directed at any known western group or religion, would've got him banned a long time since. Ignore.

Anyway, excellent piece from Patrick Cockburn

There's signs that due to the rebels losing in the west of the country, latest in Qusayr, they've started shifting activities to the east and attacking Kurds. I don't fancy their chances much, the Kurdish military groups are well trained, well armed and have been digging in ready for a fight for months, they'll have a very hard time shifting them

http://syriareport.net/insurgents-declare-war-on-syrias-kurds/

A particularly frightening quote here:

Yesterday, a statement signed by no less than twenty-one armed groups declared ”Kurdish defense units, YPG, are traitors because they are against our Jihad.” The goal, according to the statement, is a “pending the completion of comprehensive cleansing process”, liberation from “PKK and Shabiha”.

Mmm cleansing process. That sounds awfully genocidal. I do hope that it doesn't turn out Cameron was giving money to these people....

 

[thriller]

what have the Arabs government done for the Palestinians, you cunt flaps? only help they ever get is aid to rebuild homes bombed out of existence by Israel. and don't get started on the Sunni arab league. LOL. That great talking shop. at least Hezbollah fight and defend against Israeli aggression. the only people helping Hamas is Iran. Syria cannot and must not fall to Islamists.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

From the caption it looks like these nice chaps are linked to the FSA. Our Foreign Secretary is again making strident efforts to improve the lot of Islamist terrorists having been part of the many condemnations of islamist terrorism taking place these last few days.

Happy hypocrisy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd-AN3YtQuI

 

[Casually Red]

btw thrillers recent posts have been nothing but pure bigotry, that if directed at any known western group or religion, would've got him banned a long time since. Ignore.

Anyway, excellent piece from Patrick Cockburn

There's signs that due to the rebels losing in the west of the country, latest in Qusayr, they've started shifting activities to the east and attacking Kurds. I don't fancy their chances much, the Kurdish military groups are well trained, well armed and have been digging in ready for a fight for months, they'll have a very hard time shifting them

http://syriareport.net/insurgents-declare-war-on-syrias-kurds/

A particularly frightening quote here:



Mmm cleansing process. That sounds awfully genocidal. I do hope that it doesn't turn out Cameron was giving money to these people....

well hell be sending more than just money to the jihadists very shortly . Thanks to the sterling efforts of foetus face mekon Hague the EU arms embargo on sending weapons to the jihadists has just been done away with . The way is now open for Britain to start overtly arming the scumbags . Britain and France will be providing first class assistance in that campaign of ethnic cleansing of Syrias ethnic minorities from hereon in . And you can take it as read that with the weapons therell also be privately contracted advisors on how to use them . That nice little stunt the SAS and its associated acronyms pull when its members resign for a bit and work for private security contractors, who are just a convenient front for the legal niceties .

This is bearing out everything Assad has been saying all along .

 

[Casually Red]

Israeli analysts aren't so sure:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/24/192186/israel-in-reassessment-thinks.html#.UaEAs9KOSSo

If the establishment and defence of forces in Syria that can do serious damage to Israel is your only concern then back the rebels. The Assads have given Israel a very easy time and backed Hezbollah's rivals Amal in the 1980's when Hezbollah was fighting Israel. You want to trust the cynical power politics of Syrian Ba'athism? You're a very trusting person.

i dont know why your posting that rubbish when the Israeli army has even been rescuing wounded jihadists from inside Syria and treating them in their hospitals . As well as bombing shite out of Damascus . The zionists have backed the jihadists from day one, along with their long time muslim ally Turkey . Their enemy is Iran and its allies, not Saudi and Qatari sponsored proxies wholl not do Israel one bit of harm .

 

[TomUS]

Thanks to the sterling efforts of foetus face mekon Hague the EU arms embargo on sending weapons to the jihadists has just been done away with . The way is now open for Britain to start overtly arming the scumbags . Britain and France will be providing first class assistance.....

I very much hope Britain & France pour in arms to the rebs ASAP. It's long, long overdue.

 

[TomUS]

The zionists have backed the jihadists from day one, along with their long time muslim ally Turkey .

Nonsense.

Their enemy is Iran and its allies.

That is as it should be.

 

[Knotted]

i dont know why your posting that rubbish when the Israeli army has even been rescuing wounded jihadists from inside Syria and treating them in their hospitals . As well as bombing shite out of Damascus . The zionists have backed the jihadists from day one, along with their long time muslim ally Turkey . Their enemy is Iran and its allies, not Saudi and Qatari sponsored proxies wholl not do Israel one bit of harm .

I don't believe they have been backing the Jihadists from day one. That's a pretty fanciful thing to say. There is clearly a debate amongst the Israeli military/political elite over what the least bad outcome is for them. I maintain that Israel is still a wild card in the civil war and they will strike at whoever they deem to be the biggest/most immediate threat to them. Remember that Hamas is now a Qatari backed proxy in the conflict.

 

[goldenecitrone]

The long day of negotiations between the EU's 27 foreign ministers saw Britain and France opposing plans to shelve a decision on arming the opposition until August, while Austria and the Czech Republic spearheaded the opposition to the Anglo-French push, with the Czechs supporting the Israeli line against sending arms to Syria and the Austrians alarmed at the impact on their UN peacekeeping mission in the Golan Heights between Syria and Israel.

Looks like the Israeli line is against arming the rebels. Not the secretive puppet-masters in the background that some people want to believe.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/uk-forced-eu-embargo-syria-rebel-arms

 

[teqniq]

TomUS get a grip.

 

[camouflage]

I very much hope Britain & France pour in arms to the rebs ASAP. It's long, long overdue.

The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.


- B Russell.

 

[TomUS]

Well cam, you seem pretty cocksure of your position.

 

[Casually Red]

Looks like the Israeli line is against arming the rebels. Not the secretive puppet-masters in the background that some people want to believe.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/uk-forced-eu-embargo-syria-rebel-arms

the Israeli public line is, just as its public line was that aid ship was full of terrorists trying to massacre its soldiers, that the Israeli army doesnt commit war crimes etc etc . If it was actually against arming the rebels it would be chastising its ally Turkey for doing precisely that over the past 2 years . And killing rebels in its regular cross border incursions, not rescuing them and taking them to its field hospitals while killing hundreds of Syrian troops .

 

[camouflage]

Well cam, you seem pretty cocksure of your position.

Well I'm not, how could I be when it seems clear that Bashar al-Assad, head of the Syrian Ba'athist regime and son of his father the Bloody Hammer of the Brotherhood; is the one representing Syrian sovereignty, dialogue, reform and an end to war in the face of British, French and petro-monarchist war-mongery and callous, cavalier meddling?

The likes of Hague would have fled with his millions months ago if it were his ass on the line. Easy to call for more salt in the war-soup from the safety of whatever rock the guy retreats to during daylight hours.

Tell me TomUS, have you always thought it ok to arm and support jihadists?

 

[Knotted]

the only people helping Hamas is Iran.

You're really behind the times. Hamas has fallen out with Iran and is now being bankrolled by Qatar. It really isn't as simple as you want it to be. When (it's surely no long an if) the civil war spills over into Lebanon you will see all sorts of unimaginable alliances and sets of enemies. You may even find Israel and Hamas on the same side.

 

[Casually Red]

worth noting that only 2 out of 27 EU member states back this move , the 2 who just happen to be former colonial masters in the region and who carved it up to begin with . This is definitely about the 2 colonial map drawers sitting down and coming up with another map that sees sovereign states carved up according to their whims .
Worrying too is that some EU members are indicating they have no intention of keeping their UN peace keeping troops in a region were Britian and France are funneling arms into groups who have repeatedly attacked and kidnapped UN peacekeepers . If they withdraw thats the green light for the zionists to move in and annexe even more Syrian territory .

 

[Casually Red]

You're really behind the times. Hamas has fallen out with Iran and is now being bankrolled by Qatar. It really isn't as simple as you want it to be. When (it's surely no long an if) the civil war spills over into Lebanon you will see all sorts of unimaginable alliances and sets of enemies. You may even find Israel and Hamas on the same side.

When it comes to the crunch this Hamas leadership in particular is pure Muslim Brotherhood . By backing them in this conflict and ensuring things spiral the zionists get to ensure that the Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Gaza is excised for good . Thats the tactical sense behind backing the sunni jihadists .
The Muslim brotherhood are the ultimate in opportunists and theyll accept help from the zionists without batting an eyelid .

 

[Knotted]

When it comes to the crunch this Hamas leadership in particular is pure Muslim Brotherhood . By backing them in this conflict and ensuring things spiral the zionists get to ensure that the Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Gaza is excised for good . Thats the tactical sense behind backing the sunni jihadists .
The Muslim brotherhood are the ultimate in opportunists and theyll accept help from the zionists without batting an eyelid .

There's so much wrong with that I don't know where to start. My take is thus:

Hamas are pretty impure Muslim Brotherhood especially on day trips to the crunch. Hezbollah has no influence in Gaza and Iran has very limited influence in Gaza (basically Islamic Jihad). Hamas will not accept help from the Zionists without batting an eyelid for the simple reason that they are dependent on their popular base and fearful of being outflanked by more radical Salafi groups and Islamic Jihad (which is not to say that they won't accept help from Israel under any circumstances).

And whatever tactical sense Israel has in backing Sunni Jihadists, they aren't stupid enough to want Al Qaeda setting up shop next door. I think they're pretty fucking sincere about not wanting to arm the rebels regardless of whether they are helping the rebels at this moment. Israel wants it's enemies fighting each other (although that's tempered by concerns about Jordan being destabilised). I suspect that Israel is attacking Syrian forces because 1) they are the winning side at the minute and 2) they want to help export the civil war to Lebanon and deal with Hezbollah.

 

[goldenecitrone]

the Israeli public line is, just as its public line was that aid ship was full of terrorists trying to massacre its soldiers, that the Israeli army doesnt commit war crimes etc etc . If it was actually against arming the rebels it would be chastising its ally Turkey for doing precisely that over the past 2 years.

Relations between Israel and Turkey have been at best chilled since Israel killed 8 Turks in 2010 as you say. Hardly think the Turks are going to pay much attention to Israeli chastisements after that attack on its citizens.

 

[Casually Red]

And whatever tactical sense Israel has in backing Sunni Jihadists, they aren't stupid enough to want Al Qaeda setting up shop next door. I think they're pretty fucking sincere about not wanting to arm the rebels regardless of whether they are helping the rebels at this moment. Israel wants it's enemies fighting each other (although that's tempered by concerns about Jordan being destabilised). I suspect that Israel is attacking Syrian forces because 1) they are the winning side at the minute and 2) they want to help export the civil war to Lebanon and deal with Hezbollah.

it may come as news to you but Al Qaeda have had their shop bristling with guns and rockets right next door for over 2 years now and the only interaction between them and the zionists appears to have been positive from both sides point of view . And Israel was bombing the syrian forces , twice, when it was on a losing streak as well . Israel has only one choice , a Syria thats aligned to Iran or a Syria thats aligned to Saudi Arabia . Unsurpriringly theyve opted from day one for a Syria thats aligned to an ally instead of an enemy .

 

[camouflage]

You're really behind the times. Hamas has fallen out with Iran and is now being bankrolled by Qatar. It really isn't as simple as you want it to be. When (it's surely no long an if) the civil war spills over into Lebanon you will see all sorts of unimaginable alliances and sets of enemies. You may even find Israel and Hamas on the same side.

Didn't they start off on the same side? I was under the impression Isreal backed Hamas to undermine the (far more dangerous to their cause) Arab nationalist PLO...

Yup, Isreal discovered that backing and arming islamist militias to attack secular non-political opponents is a really really clever thing to do.

 

[Knotted]

Didn't they start off on the same side? I was under the impression Isreal backed Hamas to undermine the (far more dangerous to their cause) Arab nationalist PLO...

Yup, Isreal discovered that backing and arming islamist militias is a really really clever thing to do.

This is true (almost - they backed a pre-Hamas formation, not Hamas itself), but I think they have learnt their lesson - Islamist movements can transform themselves into effective fighting nationalist resistance forces. So they're not going to make that mistake again and it's not as if the Syrian Ba'athists are the equivalent of the PLO back in the day, anyway.