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And next, Syria?

Fuchs66 said:
My gut feeling says that there is more to this than the base, if that had been the only factor they could have easily negotiated with and smeared the palms of any incoming government to allow it to remain in their possesion. During conflict they can quite easily protect their national interests with the military personnel they have there, with the possibility of further troops being brought in. I have a feeling Russia has something it wants buried in Syria.
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Russia faces end of petrodollar surplus
FT October 3, 2012
Russia’s petrodollar surplus, which has buffered the economy from external shocks for more than a decade, is poised to vanish as early as 2015 as import revenues overtake those from oil exports, according to its central bank.
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Russia is supporting Syria because of Iran's oil and the great game.
 
Fuchs66 said:
Possible aswell, I dont however believe that support of Syria is a precondition to getting first dibs on Iranian oil, especially for Russia.
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With a west-friendly non-alawite/shia government installed in Syria, Iran will be the next target for regime change.
 
yield said:
With a west-friendly non-alawite/shia government installed in Syria, Iran will be the next target for regime change.
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which Russia will like even less - if Iran goes then Russia is locked out of the ME, there's no other 'Russia friendly' countries left. even without Iran falling, and with Syria's civil war/insurgency lasting 18 months, its clear that 'Russias' gang' is getting smaller, poorer and more isolated, so countries that are post-revolution/whatever are even less likely to want to join.

its possible that the distancing of Russia from Syria we've seen of late may be an attempt by Russia to 'de-toxify' its brand so that when governments both in Syria and, at some point, Iran, change the new power structures don't throw close relations with Russia out with the bathwater, but i'm neither convinced that Russian politicians are actually that politically skilled, or that such an exercise is going to work.
 
yield said:
With a west-friendly non-alawite/shia government installed in Syria, Iran will be the next target for regime change.
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Again I'm sure this is a consideration, however I just dont think the Russians are that far-sighted and they certainly dont possess the skills of the Chinese for playing the long game.
 
yield said:
With a west-friendly non-alawite/shia government installed in Syria, Iran will be the next target for regime change.
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Once upon a time the present regime in Syria was very West-friendly. Hafez Assad allowed Western troops to launch its first assault on Iraq.
 
sihhi said:
Once upon a time the present regime in Syria was very West-friendly. Hafez Assad allowed Western troops to launch its first assault on Iraq.
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once upon a time the German Army and Luftwaffe trained for Blitzkreig in Russia, at the invitation of the Russian Government, and in contravention of the Treaty of Versailles. once upon a time means shit.

Hafez Assad wasn't western friendly, he wanted to be on the winning side, had his own concerns about the ambitions of Iraqi map-makers, and wanted the cash that accompanied being (on the surface) best mates with Saudi Arabia.

don't confuse 'friends' with interests.
 
kebabking said:
once upon a time the German Army and Luftwaffe trained for Blitzkreig in Russia, at the invitation of the Russian Government, and in contravention of the Treaty of Versailles. once upon a time means shit.

Hafez Assad wasn't western friendly, he wanted to be on the winning side, had his own concerns about the ambitions of Iraqi map-makers, and wanted the cash that accompanied being (on the surface) best mates with Saudi Arabia.

don't confuse 'friends' with interests.
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First sentence is meaningless. What is the difference between 2 powers having similar interests and being friends - friends- short-hand for sharing same interests. Britain and US ruling groups share similar interests, hence they are friends - if those changed the special relationship would end very quickly.
Syria moved closer to the West after it destroyed the Lebanese left during the civil war, and saw the benefits that accrued to Iraq from receiving US assistance, during the Iran-Iraq War. It also confronted mainstream Palestinian nationalists refugees in Lebanon, weakening PLO possibilities during the first Intifada.
H. Assad was not pro-West, that's not the claim, the claim is that his and Western interests converged for a fair while - from the mid-80s to the mid-90s, hence west-friendly. When H. Assad was more secure in his position and US eager to force a harder line against Iraq - the 1998 air strikes for instance, by then yes Syria and West were poles apart.
 
Air force intelligence HQ in Damascus suburb bombed. Assad can't control his capital. Assad's days are numbered. Still quite a few days yet but he's a goner. Iran to get stuck in quagmire trying to save the bastard? More western military aid needed for the rebels.

The al-Nusra Front, a jihadist militant group, said explosives-filled vehicles had been blown up outside the Air Force Intelligence (AFI) complex in Harasta.
Residents said there were several blasts, followed by fierce clashes. One activist group said dozens were killed.
AFI is seen by some as the elite agency of Syria's intelligence empire.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19880669
 
It is tempting to assume an escalation of the conflict is coming, with Turkey moving planes and troops to the border, banning its civilian airlines from using Syrian airspace, and forcing a civilian Moscow-Syria aircraft to land in Turkey due to suspected military equipment on board.

However I cannot rule out the possibility that this is as much about threat, pressure and putting on a show for the Turkish domestic audience as anything. Time will tell.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/10/201210102183860603.html
 
turkish girl i met over the weekend claims part of the tension in turkey is over claims that a plane has disappeared when in syrian air space, possibly shot down?

not sure if there's any truth in it. these kind of rumours and the very real tensions would definitely why the turks don't want to seem too weak with the syrian regime, they really do have a face to maintain considering the mess happening on the border with the violence and refugees etc. i'd imagine both sides are being very careful not to escalate tensions too much though...
 
Riklet said:
turkish girl i met over the weekend claims part of the tension in turkey is over claims that a plane has disappeared when in syrian air space, possibly shot down?
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A Turkish RF-4E from 113 Filo at Eskisehir was splashed in the Med by Syrian triple-A on 22nd June. Pilot and Nav KIA.
 
hmmmm I suppose it was only a matter of time :(

[quoteANTAKYA, Turkey—Some Syrian rebel factions have obtained advanced portable antiaircraft weapons, according to rebels and regional officials, a development that could alter the Syrian war's trajectory and fan U.S. concerns that such weapons could end up in the hands of anti-Western Islamist militias.

Video footage uploaded to the Internet earlier this week appears to show rebels in Aleppo using weapons that military experts and rebels say are heat-seeking, shoulder-fired missiles, the first documented instance in the conflict. Versions of the weapons—also known as man-portable air defense systems, or Manpads—have been smuggled into the country over the past two months through ...[/quote]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100....html?mod=wsj_share_tweet#articleTabs=article

and

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ay-have-acquired-surface-to-air-missiles.html
 
the clashes in Beruit today indicate that the Assad government are attempting to gain relief in Syria by spreading the war across the region.
The nationwide air raid/ disaster exercises in Israel this weekend were being read as preparation for an Iranian attack. It might be as likely that Assad might attempt to rally support by playing the anti zionist card
 
What they have in store for the Syrians:

But the new coalition may face some of the same organizational problems that the Syrian National Council did. Syrian emigres do not have well-formed political parties, no surprise after four decades of a police state dictatorship, and the only group that appears able to develop a political strategy is the Muslim Brotherhood.
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Additionally, U.S. officials also may face difficulty rationalizing Khatib’s positions with U.S. policy. Western diplomats said Khatib has been a critic of twin accords agreed to in Cairo last July that Riad Seif was instrumental in drafting that specify that a post-Assad Syria should be secular in nature. Khatib has been critical of the documents because they make no reference to Islamic Shariah law.
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http://www.bradenton.com/2012/11/11/4275011/us-hails-creation-of-new-syrian.html#storylink=cpy
 
I noticed the SyAAF Su-22s have been seeing action lately which is a new development.

SyAAF+Su-22M-4K+MaaratNumaan+18Oct12+AFP.jpg


Those FAB-500s it has released are totally unguided and the bombsight in the Fencer is basically a rusty nail hammered through the lid of a pickle jar so fuck knows where they ended up falling.
 
so a sectarian goverment is going to take over a bitterly divided country?
Well this is going to go well:(
Assad could have managed the transistion but decided to go out in blood and fire.:(
 
likesfish said:
so a sectarian goverment is going to take over a bitterly divided country?
Well this is going to go well:(
Assad could have managed the transistion but decided to go out in blood and fire.:(
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Here we see the fruits of propaganda. You should'nt believe everything some journalist tells you.

In other news, the mighty Gaza Imperium continues to wage it's relentless campaign of brute intimidation against the fearful school-children of helpless captive Isreal.
 
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