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And next, Syria?

According to AlJazeera, Turkey already struck back.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/10/2012103181110169706.html

​
Turkish armed forces have launched artillery attacks against Syria in response to a Syrian mortar strike, which has killed five members of the same family in southeastern Turkey.​
In a statement issued on Wednesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, said the attacks, carried out following radar tracking, were within the rules of engagement.​
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​
 
Why would Bashar the Lion want to give the Turks and NATO the excuse to do what they've been itching to do all along, or are Syrian artillerymen just really shit shots?
 
I think this is NATO-endorsed, because it's a deeply unpopular move, even though a small minority has internet in Turkey, the current top twitters are all anti
Türkiye Gündemi

· Değiştir
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NoToWar
WeAreUnited InLovingThisCountry
What a turn of events
AKP Youth to war ie fight your own wars
Bilal Erdogan (Prime Minister's expensively educated son) to Syria!



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Turkey Syria
We Don't Want War Neither Now Nor Later
NATO
Faruk K (TV personality)
Assad
 
http://rt.com/news/turkey-strike-syria-shelling-612/

Turkey has fired back at Syria after Syrian mortar bombs killed five people and wounded eight others in a Turkish town near the border, says the Turkish Prime Minister's office. NATO schedules an urgent meeting to be held later in the day.
“Our armed forces in the border region immediately retaliated against this heinous attack… by shelling the targets spotted by radar,” Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s office said in a statement.
"Turkey will never leave unanswered such kinds of provocation by the Syrian regime against our national security," the office added. According to Syrian media, Turkish artillery hit targets in the province of Idlib.
In the official statement, NATO urged Syria to put end to “flagrant violations of international law,” saying that it stands by Turkey, Reuters reported.
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I wonder where all this could lead? There's a lot of shit going on in Iran at the moment.

And also what will the Russians do if NATO endorses a Turkish attack on Syria?
 
Is there any possibility this could be a Gulf of Tonkin-style incident? Do they actually know for sure it was the state regulars or could it equally have been the FSA trying to provoke intervention? Is there any chance this could be used as the pretext for invasion or a no-fly-zone?
 
bendeus said:
Is there any possibility this could be a Gulf of Tonkin-style incident? Do they actually know for sure it was the state regulars or could it equally have been the FSA trying to provoke intervention? Is there any chance this could be used as the pretext for invasion or a no-fly-zone?
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Turkish aircraft have been doing surveys from their side of the border for a fair few months. It's a case of go for it - whilst the opportunity is there. A woman and children killed. If NATO got away with Libya, this can be claimed is exactly what the NATO charter is meant to be for. I expect a tough NATO statement tomorrow endorsing Turkish raids on easy to reach regime military posts, and perhaps NATO asking for a buffer of withdrawal of some distance to stop 'events like this' happening again.
 
sihhi said:
Turkish aircraft have been doing surveys from their side of the border for a fair few months. It's a case of go for it - whilst the opportunity is there. A woman and children killed. If NATO got away with Libya, this can be claimed is exactly what the NATO charter is meant to be for. I expect a tough NATO statement tomorrow endorsing Turkish raids on easy to reach regime military posts, and perhaps NATO asking for a buffer of withdrawal of some distance to stop 'events like this' happening again.
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All very neat. It does make me wonder about the provenance of the rounds, mind. It's a battlezone, and last I checked nobody labels their shells. FSA and their allies have a lot to gain, and I'd imagine given the sensitivity of the border zone and potential consequences of exactly something like this happening that Syrian troops would have been under pretty strict orders to ensure that no munitions got lobbed on top of Turkish residential areas.
 
likesfish said:
Russia cant actually do anyrhing useful.
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It's not Russia's interest to start world war 3 over this, we can establish that from the start.

Just as another question, if the Turks decide to start a military campaign against Syria, then will they take that as an opportunity to go after the Kurds as well? With tacit NATO endorsement no less.
 
Of course there bomb the kurds thats sort of the poimt of the turkish military:(
If its tuesday there must be kurdish terrorists to bomb*

Apprantly being kurdish can inflict terror on the average turkish military officer from 200 mies away :(
 
bendeus said:
Is there any possibility this could be a Gulf of Tonkin-style incident? Do they actually know for sure it was the state regulars or could it equally have been the FSA trying to provoke intervention? Is there any chance this could be used as the pretext for invasion or a no-fly-zone?
Click to expand...

Do the rebels have weaponry to inflict the kind of damage done?
 
sihhi said:
I think this is NATO-endorsed, because it's a deeply unpopular move, even though a small minority has internet in Turkey, the current top twitters are all anti
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They don't seem to mind so much when Turkish troops are pursuing the PKK into Iraq.

Just thinking out loud!
 
Fuchs66 said:
They don't seem to mind so much when Turkish troops are pursuing the PKK into Iraq.

Just thinking out loud!
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Well no, the idea that NATO where one of its members has been having a drawn-out insurgency-civil war for the past 30 years can instruct Syria on how to judiciously end its own civil war is laughable.

The most important thing about Turkey's response has been its ferocity in hitting targets in the largely Alawite and Christian areas by the sea, where the rebels have little support, far away from where the missile landed.

The Kurds in Syria despite negotiations with the Free Syrian Army are still unable to really commit one way or the other, they are largely both anti-Assad anti-FSA.
 
sihhi said:
Well no, the idea that NATO where one of its members has been having a drawn-out insurgency-civil war for the past 30 years can instruct Syria on how to judiciously end its own civil war is laughable.
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I was referring to the twitter activities that you mentioned rather than NATO!
 
Fuchs66 said:
I was referring to the twitter activities that you mentioned rather than NATO!
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Twitter activities are predictably isolationist and nationalist - that's to be expected in a young generation that still grows up with textbooks describing a Turkey-based unitary-state war of liberation against 7 powers - so you get KahrolsunPKK - Damn the PKK - every time an incident occurs. It would be the same here if RIRA were active on the mainland.
 
bendeus said:
All very neat. It does make me wonder about the provenance of the rounds, mind. It's a battlezone, and last I checked nobody labels their shells...
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depends one the type of weapon locating radars they've got and how close the radars were to the shells track - an older, Cymbeline-type system from the 70's/80's could produce a firing location with a CEP of anything from 50 to 200m depending on how much of the shells track it was able to monitor and the range at which it was tracking, but a modern system like MAMBA, COBRA or the new CWLR, will give firing locations to within a few feet, and at significant range.

so yes, the Turks will have known within seconds exactly where the shells came from, and it won't have taken them long to go through their intelligence package - as provided by their signals int, and photographic int, and to know exactly which side was occupying that location when the shells were fired.
 
kebabking said:
depends one the type of weapon locating radars they've got and how close the radars were to the shells track - an older, Cymbeline-type system from the 70's/80's could produce a firing location with a CEP of anything from 50 to 200m depending on how much of the shells track it was able to monitor and the range at which it was tracking, but a modern system like MAMBA, COBRA or the new CWLR, will give firing locations to within a few feet, and at significant range.

so yes, the Turks will have known within seconds exactly where the shells came from, and it won't have taken them long to go through their intelligence package - as provided by their signals int, and photographic int, and to know exactly which side was occupying that location when the shells were fired.
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This is really useful information. Thanks! :)
 
I recon this is all going to kick off in the next few months, Turkey in a war she dare not lose. Chemical war fare possible but I can see this embroiling a lot of people all over the world.
 
extra dry said:
I recon this is all going to kick off in the next few months, Turkey in a war she dare not lose. Chemical war fare possible but I can see this embroiling a lot of people all over the world.
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why?

no one is friends with the Assad regime - some others find them useful, but no one is friends with them, and no one is going to go to war for them - particularly as it looks like they stand a good chance of losing. Russia has been distancing itself from the regime for some time, Iran has its own problems...

Turkey is the regional superpower, it is so far ahead of Syria in both quantitive and qualitative terms - with conventional weapons only - that any war would look like the Death Star vs a five yo with a snowball, it also doesn't want to go to war with Syria. stamp on Syrias toes, yes, provide help and support to the Syrian opposition, yes, but open war - no. Syria is also desperate not to go to war with Turkey: the opposition it may be able to deal with, the opposition, with Turkish air support and an armoured brigade prowling around the northern border keeping whats left of its Army busy? no chance whatsoever...
 
Russia cant do anything ?

They have the lease on Tartus still - I cant see them giving it back easily and allowing whoever to take it over
 
not-bono-ever said:
Russia cant do anything ?

They have the lease on Tartus still - I cant see them giving it back easily and allowing whoever to take it over
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My gut feeling says that there is more to this than the base, if that had been the only factor they could have easily negotiated with and smeared the palms of any incoming government to allow it to remain in their possesion. During conflict they can quite easily protect their national interests with the military personnel they have there, with the possibility of further troops being brought in. I have a feeling Russia has something it wants buried in Syria.
 
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