And next, Syria?

[likesfish]

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/02/201225111654512841.html

I'm not exactly sure how you could possibly put a postive spin on assads action.
Though i'm pretty sure his passing will not be the end of the bloodshed

 

[teqniq]

More war crimes to add to the list

(CNN) -- At least 40 people were killed in an airstrike on a key hospital in the besieged city of Aleppo, a rebel leader there told CNN.
Ralib al-Omar, with the Yusif al-Asma rebel group, said the attack targeted the Dar al-Shifa Hospital and that the dead included two nurses.
The hospital is one of the main sources of medical help for people in Syria's commercial hub.
Video posted by activists showed a collapsed building adjacent to the hospital. The blast appeared to have hit the hospital's front lobby, which is often crowded with patients, civilians and rebels.
The hospital had been attacked this year when an artillery shell hit its maternity ward.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/21/world/meast/syria-aleppo-hospital/index.html

slideshow (grim) here:

http://www.vice.com/read/Aleppo-Field-Hospital-Attack-Robert-King/82430

 

[teqniq]

hmmmm

Moscow. Farid Akberov – APA. The deputy manager of a Russian defense equipment factory that exports goods to Syria has been assassinated in Tula close to Moscow, daily Hürriyet has reported, APA reports quoting Hurriyet Daily News.

Konstruktorskoye Büro Priborostroyeniye’s (KBP) deputy manager, 58-year-old Vyacheslav Trukhachev, was shot dead on one of the biggest streets in Tula.
Police have launched an investigation while his colleagues have called the event unexpected and mysterious. KBP is one of the main defense industry producers of short- and medium-range arms in Russia.
Unidentified material seized by Turkish authorities from a Damascus-bound jet forced to land in Ankara on Oct. 10 was produced in the factory. Turkey forced down the passenger Syrian jet, which was en route from Moscow to the Syrian capital, on suspicion that it was carrying military material.

http://en.apa.az/news_official_at_russian_supplier_of_arms_to__183019.html

 

[camouflage]

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/02/201225111654512841.html

I'm not exactly sure how you could possibly put a postive spin on assads action.
Though i'm pretty sure his passing will not be the end of the bloodshed

Saw a comment the other day on Reddit after France decided to recognize the rebels as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people...

"Can't wait for the day in twenty years time when Syria decides to recognize the Islamic Republic of France as the legitimate representatives of France"

or words to that effect.

The Syrian democratic movement was real and would have achieved it's objectives, but has long since been hijacked by the gunmen. No state, democratic or otherwise, is going to agree to just buckle to the demands of bands of gunmen who's primary non-negotiable demand by the way is that the state abolishes itself. It's one of those classic acts of Roman Diplomacy "First you must surrender utterly, then we negotiate!" It puts the regime in a position where there is no where for it to to except to fight. Concessions were being given by the state by the way, and Assad stepping down after elections in 2014 along with other reforms was I think actually quite reasonable. Who would prefer open-ended civil war to that?

Syria will be cursed now for years to come, and all that will replace the brutal regime of Assad is the internecine violence of hundreds of sectarian/jihadist militias who fight among themselves and consider women and children as legitimate 'spoils of war'. All of this is at the insistence of foreign interests, none of whom genuinely have the interests of the Syrians at heart. Saudi Fucking Arabia? Qatar? Turkey? None of these are champions of democracy and Syrian women are on the whole not that into the Turkish way of doing things, they find life in Syria far more secular and progressive according to the reports I've heard.

The war is being fed and kept alive by other interests for their own reasons, they don't want the rebels to sit down with the regime and make peace, and they are demanding the impossible of the Syrian state, surrender to chaos. They've bodged together this opposition of imported jihadists and recently assigned a new leader to it who's dodgy as fuck by all accounts. A fairly healthy majority of the Syrians actually support Assad, nothing like invasion by a hireling barbarian army to pull a nation together. It's a shame, if not for all this Western/Islamic-monarchy-sponsored crap, the Syrians could get back to the important work of moving toward a representative system of their own creation. It's a little disappointing to be fair to see you swallowing the usual half-arsed crap as bandied about by our stooge media.

 

[sunny jim]

Seems the internet and mobile networks have been turned off in Syria earlier on today with land lines only working intermittently. Sounds ominous.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20546302

 

[elbows]

it certainly wouldnt surprise me if things are entering a new phase, what with some important bases taken over and a helicopter and plane shot down recently. But actually assessing the strength of each side properly is not easy.

 

[sunny jim]

There's also been clashes between Kurds and Islamist insurgents. Which is also quite ominous for whats gonna happen if the rebels win.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...cbb334-37f1-11e2-b01f-5f55b193f58f_story.html

 

[elbows]

Yes although as the later part of that article points out, that Kurdish group has had ties to the Assad regime so we cant look at that situation as being simple in-fighting between rebel groups.

 

[sunny jim]

.

 

[sunny jim]

It might be true to say the PYD (Kurdish/Syrian group) hate Assad but hate the Islamist part of the rebellion even more.

 

[Delroy Booth]

It might be true to say the PYD (Kurdish/Syrian group) hate Assad but hate the Islamist part of the rebellion even more.

Or even more possibly that Islamists view the Kurdish groups in the region as apostate armies that, once Assad is dealt with, will be crushed.

 

[sunny jim]

Or even more possibly that Islamists view the Kurdish groups in the region as apostate armies that, once Assad is dealt with, will be crushed.

And the Shia, Christians and Alawites are probs their targets, as well as the Kurds.

 

[Delroy Booth]

And the Shia, Christians and Alawites are probs their targets, as well as the Kurds.

That's a pretty short list tbh. You could've gone much further. Women, for example. Or Sufi muslims, who are simply considered pure heretics by your Salifist Islamist nutters. Or Atheists of any complexion. etc

 

[sunny jim]

I would say I'm happy to be corrected - but that makes me more depressed about the whole situation.

 

[Delroy Booth]

Yeah it's pretty horrible.

Just reading Camouflages post there. Not sure I agree with it all, I definitely don't share the optimism that democracy was about to break through and that Assad was just on the verge of standing down in 2014, but I do think the West will end up regretting the fall of Assad massively. Because it will be a loose confederation of Islamist militia's that takes over Syria, and it will fight a long and brutal civil war to secure it's position in Syria after Assad goes, and it will be a lot worse than the Muslim Brotherhood and those guys in Tunisia once it gets going. I potentially see Libya going in a similar direction, but due to there being quite a lot of oil in Libya I suspect the yanks will intervene there again to keep the Islamists out.

And I feel hugely sorry for the people of Syria in and amongst all this. They're stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea.

 

[sunny jim]

And I feel hugely sorry for the people of Syria in and amongst all this. They're stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea.

This.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

There's also been clashes between Kurds and Islamist insurgents. Which is also quite ominous for whats gonna happen if the rebels win.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...cbb334-37f1-11e2-b01f-5f55b193f58f_story.html

This has being going on sporadically for weeks now

 

[teqniq]

The entire web and phone system went down for a while earlier today:

http://m.cnet.com/news/blackout-syria-vanishes-from-internet/57556156

 

[camouflage]

It might be true to say the PYD (Kurdish/Syrian group) hate Assad but hate the Islamist part of the rebellion even more.

iirc Assad recently granted them autonomy as a snub against the incompetent Turkish regime.

 

[IC3D]

The rebels certainly seem to be dropping planes out the sky at will now.

http://www.syrianembassy.be/ Belgium Embassy website hacked (bad music warning)

This thread needs reminding of the achievements of the Syrian democratic movement.



Dial up access #Syria: +46850009990 +492317299993 +4953160941030 user:telecomix password:telecomix OR +33172890150 login:toto password:toto

 

[sunny jim]

You dont think the democratic Syrian revolution has been superseded by the Islamic nutjobs?

 

[IC3D]

I think its inevitable after decades under dictatorship that there will be a struggle between secular and Islamic views.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I do think the West will end up regretting the fall of Assad massively. Because it will be a loose confederation of Islamist militia's that takes over Syria, and it will fight a long and brutal civil war to secure it's position in Syria after Assad goes, and it will be a lot worse than the Muslim Brotherhood and those guys in Tunisia once it gets going.

yeah what those Syrians need is a strong leader to keep them in line

 

[goldenecitrone]

Is the dog Assad contemplating using chemical weapons?

A request by Turkey for Nato Patriot missile defences to be deployed on its territory followed intelligence that the Syrian government was contemplating the use of missiles, possibly with chemical warheads, Turkish officials have told the Guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/02/turkey-syria-chemical-weapons-fears

 

[Delroy Booth]

Or is the Dog Assad thinking of fleeing to south america?

http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2012/blog1212.htm#will_assad_flee_or_sink_with_his_ship

The Syrian deputy foreign minister, Faisal al-Miqdad, has visited Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador during the past week, delivering "classified personal letters" from President Assad to local leaders, Haaretz reports.

The Israeli newspaper says Assad is exploring the possibility of asylum in Latin America for himself, his family and associates. Maybe this information came from a reliable source but the evidence, as published in the paper, looks rather thin:

 

[Fez909]

Sarin loaded onto bombs. Military just "waiting for the signal" to attack the Syrian people with chemical weapons.

 

[kebabking]

Sarin loaded onto bombs. Military just "waiting for the signal" to attack the Syrian people with chemical weapons.

if its true, then you have to wonder about the willingness of the Syrian Air Force to deliver the munitions - it would be an indicator of extreme desperation on the part of the regime, and the SAF would twig very quickly that to use chemical weapons would probably mean immediate foreign military involvement, meaning the Assad regime is dead, and they'd either get strung up by the locals, or killed in airstrikes, or spending their last days in the Hague. they know that Assad and his family might be able to buy asylum, but they won't...

personally i won't be that surprised if the move was a holding action by the military - it means the weapons transfer to frontline military control where the military, rather than the various 'security' agencies, can ensure they don't get used.

i would not however bet my life on that - and if this int/gossip/made-up-shit comes from technical intelligence (satelite pictures, intercepted communications etc..) then i'd not be that shocked if an interested party made a pre-emptive strike on the SAF facilities capable of launching Chemical strikes. lots of contenders at this stage - the Saudi's, Turks, Quatari's and Jordanians could all do it, as could the Israelis, and obviously the NATO countries - and no one would be that upset...

 

[elbows]

The regime are probably increasingly desperate but it also seems plausible that they might move their chemical weapons to keep them out of the hands of various rebel groups.

 

[kebabking]

The regime are probably increasingly desperate but it also seems plausible that they might move their chemical weapons to keep them out of the hands of various rebel groups.

while that is certainly true (and that would be a good outcome), if its correct that they've mixed the contributory chemicals to make the weaponised mixture, then thats not 'keeping it safe and out of the way of people worse than Assad', thats only a precusor to using them.

again, lots of caveats - lots of people have agendas, and few governments are open about the details of the maintainence/operations of their WMD's..

 

[elbows]

The main caveat I have is reports that US are concerned about some of the rebel groups operating in Syria, and are now afraid that the Assad regime will fall quickly and not give the US time to get some influence on the ground via intervention.