And next, Syria?

[DownwardDog]

if its true, then you have to wonder about the willingness of the Syrian Air Force to deliver the munitions

I don't think the regime will have that problem at all - if they want to do it. They're will be some who will do it just for the asking and others could probably be persuaded by either money or having their daughters locked up in a Baathist rape dungeon.

I can't see what's in it for the regime to do it though. It's not like it will 'win' the conflict for them

 

[Random]

The regime probably made sure most warplane pilots are allawites

 

[kebabking]

The regime probably made sure most warplane pilots are allawites

certainly true, but even then they'll know that while Assad might get asylum in some dodgy country, they won't, and they'll be the ones facing the consequences.

i am somewhat reminded of Libya - an air force manned by regime loyalists, yet which mysteriously produced very little air support for the regime (and yes, i know that NATO was begging them to take off so that Typhoon and Rafalé could get some kills, and bombing the crap out of their airfeilds).

the Syrian AF should, given its size, have played a much greater role, and been far more effective at attacking rebel groups (especially once the conflict became more terratorial and conventional) than it has. why that is is interesting.

 

[Random]

Maybe just because they looked at Lybia and decided not to give UN Nato an excuse to bring in no fly zone backdoor intervention? Air power isn't much of a decisive weapon in a civil war like this. Didn't Assad Sr destroy Hama ( in 1982 ?) mostly with artillery?

 

[elbows]

This piece end up summarising various bits of the new mood music we are starting to hear recently:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121206

"Events on the ground in Syria are accelerating, and we see that in many different ways," Clinton said before the meeting. "The pressure against the regime in and around Damascus seems to be increasing."

Assad's government said the warnings about chemical arms were aimed at whipping up an excuse for military intervention. NATO decided this week to send U.S., German and Dutch batteries of air-defense missiles to the Turkish border, meaning hundreds of American and European troops will deploy to Syria's frontier for the first time since the war began.
"Syria stresses again, for the tenth, the hundredth time, that if we had such weapons, they would not be used against its people. We would not commit suicide," Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Maqdad told Lebanon's Al Manar television, the voice of the pro-Assad Hezbollah movement.
"We fear there is a conspiracy to provide a pretext for any subsequent interventions in Syria by these countries that are increasing pressure on Syria."

In one of the clearest signs yet that Moscow may be losing patience with Assad, Interfax news agency quoted the head of President Putin's party in parliament as saying the Syrian government was no longer capable of funtioning.
"We have shared and continue to share the opinion that the existing government in Syria should carry out its functions, but time has shown that this task is beyond its strength," Vladimir Vasiliyev said.

U.S. officials said the Obama administration was considering blacklisting Jabhat al-Nusra, an influential rebel group accused by other rebels of indiscriminate tactics that has advocated an Islamic state in Syria and is suspected of ties to al Qaeda.

Rebels say they have also surrounded an air base 4 km (2-1/2 miles) from the centre of Damascus, a fresh sign the battle is closing in on the Syrian capital. Maqdad denied that: "What is sad is that foreign countries believe these repeated rumors."

 

[camouflage]

Impatience.

I. Want. Results!

 

[elbows]

@alextomo
#c4news #Syria live tonight from Beirut. Why UK/US noise about chemical weapons shd be treated with utmost caution.

I've made no attempt to watch this but will post a clip if one appears on their youtube channel.

In the meantime here is his blog post about this stuff:

http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thomsons-view/syria-weapon-mass-deception/3330

 

[kebabking]

to be strictly fair to Hague, he has said that he is aware of the parallels of 10 years ago...

i also noted the emphasis on the word 'some' in the phrase 'some intelligence'. 'some' sounds to me like 'a bit, and possibly of dubious value'. personally it sounds like a shot across Assads bows while hoping like fuck he's no plans to do so anyway, not a prelude to war.

Cameron wants to avoid a Syrian entanglement, he knows he 'got away' with Libya (just - the RAF had expended pretty much all their weapons of choice, and were within a few days of having to use older, larger, less accurate/effective weapons like Paveway II), and he knows that whatever happens in Syria isn't going to be pretty, so he's doing the absolute minimum neccesary to show the home audience that he's 'in the loop' on Syria while staying well out of it.

 

[likesfish]

Also warning assad that use of chemical weapons will bring a libyan slap down

 

[IC3D]

The Secular Idiot’s Guide to Syria’s Jihadist Groups

The Free Men of Syria Brigade
Freedom is a strong theme among Jihadist groups, although you need to disassociate it from its Euro-centric meaning in the sense of freedom to drink alcohol, vote or read modern poetry. Freedom here refers to the freedom to impose the righteous way on other people, a human right than is totally ignored by the West. The Free Men of Syria practice what they preach, and they have taken the liberty to destroy several shipments of alcohol already.

 

[Delroy Booth]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/13/world/middleeast/syria-war-developments-assad.html?hp&_r=0

New York Times report that Syria armed forces have used Scud missiles against Rebels.

Sounds like they're getting desperate now...

 

[kebabking]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/13/world/middleeast/syria-war-developments-assad.html?hp&_r=0

New York Times report that Syria armed forces have used Scud missiles against Rebels.

Sounds like they're getting desperate now...

if true the launches will have set ringpieces twitching all around the region - a ballistic weapon like SCUD is easily detectable on radar because of the height it reaches, everyone in the region will have seen it in flight, and SCUD was designed as a delivery system for area weapons like nukes and Chemical weapons, it is not a precision attack weapon.

the article indicates that the weapons were fired northwards from Damascas - what is also northwards of Damascas is Turkey, and the Turkish border is within the range of a SCUD C, which the Syrians own...

 

[bendeus]

if true the launches will have set ringpieces twitching all around the region - a ballistic weapon like SCUD is easily detectable on radar because of the height it reaches, everyone in the region will have seen it in flight, and SCUD was designed as a delivery system for area weapons like nukes and Chemical weapons, it is not a precision attack weapon.

the article indicates that the weapons were fired northwards from Damascas - what is also northwards of Damascas is Turkey, and the Turkish border is within the range of a SCUD C, which the Syrians own...

Is there any conceivable strategic reason the Assad regime would seek to piss off Turkey, or are we witnessing the death throes?

 

[framed]

...or having their daughters locked up in a Baathist rape dungeon.

Can you give links to any coherent independent journalism that has uncovered any evidence of a 'Baathist rape dungeon'?

 

[framed]

Is there any conceivable strategic reason the Assad regime would seek to piss off Turkey, or are we witnessing the death throes?

There is no strategic reason for Assad to directly attack or even provoke Turkey, just as there is no tactical or logical reason as to why he would use chemical weapons against his own people. It is a deceit imho.

However, it was fairly inevitable, once Turkey got agreement on constructing missile sites along their border with Syria, that they'd want to fire a few off... but to fire them they'll need to have justification for doing do. That means either responding to an atrocity committed by the Assad regime, or manufacturing one. It's all part of the build up to direct intervention.

 

[Fuchs66]

There is no strategic reason for Assad to directly attack or even provoke Turkey, just as there is no tactical or logical reason as to why he would use chemical weapons against his own people. It is a deceit imho.

However, it was fairly inevitable, once Turkey got agreement on constructing missile sites along their border with Syria, that they'd want to fire a few off... but to fire them they'll need to have justification for doing do. That means either responding to an atrocity committed by the Assad regime, or manufacturing one. It's all part of the build up to direct intervention.

Logic has little to do with the politics of that region.

What do you think the missiles do that are going to be located in Turkey? They are purely defensive and don't require much construction. The Turks will only get the chance to "fire off a few" if something dodgy really does fly across their border.

 

[kebabking]

...That means either responding to an atrocity committed by the Assad regime, or manufacturing one. It's all part of the build up to direct intervention.

you're suggesting that Syria is deliberately provoking international intervention?

the only plausible logic - other than pure desperation - for Syria to use a weapon like SCUD is to get those around Syria to draw breath, think 'this is getting out of control, and we'll be lucky to live through it', and to stop supporting the rebel groups.

personally i think that idea has two hopes, and one of them is Bob Hope - Turkey, a NATO member with other NATO members actively assisting in providing its security, is not going to react well to a little shit like Assad trying to scare it off.

 

[framed]

you're suggesting that Syria is deliberately provoking international intervention?

No. I've actually suggested the opposite. I don't think it's in the interests of Assad to provoke either Turkey or NATO, even though Turkey and NATO might very much like to be provoked...

 

[goldenecitrone]

Bombing mosques in Yarmouk refugee camp now. Scores of Palestinian refugees dead according to guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/16/syrian-rocket-palestinian-refugee-camp

 

[frogwoman]

Arab regimes have often treated the Palestinians with suspicion, partially because historically left wing politics had a huge following within that community, they have been discriminated against and marginalised for decades, saddam in particular hated them iirc

for fucks sake tho, have they not suffered enough

 

[DownwardDog]

Bombing mosques in Yarmouk refugee camp now. Scores of Palestinian refugees dead according to guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/16/syrian-rocket-palestinian-refugee-camp

I wonder what time the demonstration outside the Syrian embassy starts.

 

[Delroy Booth]

https://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/12/16-2

A terrifying article from Patrick Cockburn

 

[teqniq]

US - Russia reach agreement on al-Assad ouster: Opposition sources

Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat – Senior sources in the opposition Syrian National Coalition have revealed that Moscow and Washington have reached an agreement on the Syria crisis, informing Asharq Al-Awsat that this includes “a settlement regarding the departure of President Bashar al-Assad from power”. However the source added that “sticking points in this agreement include the precise mechanism of al-Assad’s departure and handover of power.”
The source confirmed that this US - Russian agreement which was reached during meetings between officials in Dublin and Geneva last week “stipulates that a settlement has truly been agreed”. The senior Syrian National Coalition source added that these meetings "led to two options being outlined for the Syrian President, namely either that he is a partner in transferring power and enjoys international protection, or the transfer of power is negotiated in his absence and he loses the [international] protection that can be gained by agreeing to a settlement.”

This information intersects with other information revealed by Syrian National Coalition member Adib al-Shishakli on his Facebook page. Quoting a Russian source, al-Shishakli claimed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “has expressed his readiness to negotiate and leave power, accompanied by 142 members of his entourage.”

Speaking exclusively to Asharq Al-Awsat, al-Shishakli revealed that this 142 member entourage “includes 108 military and security figures who are responsible for issuing orders to the armed and security forces to kill Syrians” adding “as for the rest, these are members of the al-Assad family.”

Al-Shishakli stressed that al-Assad was including these figures in the negotiations “with the objective of protecting them from International Criminal Court [ICC] prosecution.”

The senior Syrian National Coalition figure also asserted that “the Russians are now well aware that they are no longer able to protect al-Assad in power, and they have no choice but to lift immunity from him and negotiate with the international community.”...

 

[teqniq]

Seems like Russia are now set to hang Assad out to dry:

Russia's foreign minister says Moscow would welcome any country's offer of a safe haven to Syrian President Bashar Assad, but underlined that Moscow itself has no intention of giving him shelter if he steps down.

Russia has repeatedly used its veto right along with China at the U.N. Security Council to protect its old ally from international sanctions, but it has increasingly sought to distance itself from Assad.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters late Friday that countries in the region he wouldn't name publicly had asked Russia to convey their offer of a safe passage to Assad. He said that Russia responded by telling them to go directly to Assad: "We replied: 'What do we have to do with it? If you have such plans, you go straight to him.'"

Asked if Moscow could offer a refuge to Assad, Lavrov responded that "Russia has publicly said that it doesn't invite President Assad."

"If there is anyone willing to provide him guarantees, they are welcome!" Lavrov told reporters on board a plane returning from Brussels where he attended a Russia-EU summit. "We would be the first to cross ourselves and say: "Thank God, the carnage is over! If it indeed ends the carnage, which is far from certain."...

Concerning my emphasis, nevermind all the nice ordnance that the Russians sold them which assisted in said carnage eh?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/10584182

 

[likesfish]

Scuds are accurate enough to hit a country there a modernised version of a german V2.
Patriot wasnt succesful against it because it was such an ancient bit of junk

 

[teqniq]

Well yes scuds are most probably ancient pieces of junk but I was thinking more along the lines of the battlefield mortars they've been supplying

And these nice cluster bombs:

PTAB-2.5M

 

[TomUS]

https://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/12/16-2

A terrifying article from Patrick Cockburn

What Cockburn fails to see is that it is the failure of NATO & Arab countries to do a Libya type operation long ago that has given jihadists time to intervene & resulted in Syria descending into holy war.

 

[DownwardDog]

Well yes scuds are most probably ancient pieces of junk but I was thinking more along the lines of the battlefield mortars they've been supplying

And these nice cluster bombs:

PTAB-2.5M

Those PTABs are submunitions from an RBK-250 cluster bomb, not cluster bombs themselves.

It's interesting, but not surprising, that they didn't fuse correctly. Russian weapons = shit. Syrian Air Force = shitter.

 

[likesfish]

Most clusterbombs have a fairly shocking failure rate western ones are often painted bright orange to aid clear up off get mistaken for toys
Know someone lost a leg clearing them up in the lebannon.
I imagine syria is going to reach iraqi levels of bloodbath before anything improves.
Tom nobody was pushing for a nato led intervention with russia cockblocking being a major ally of syria and iran being a neighbour that was never practical plus israel.

 

[Knotted]

What Cockburn fails to see is that it is the failure of NATO & Arab countries to do a Libya type operation long ago that has given jihadists time to intervene & resulted in Syria descending into holy war.

Several things wrong with this. Firstly the jihadists have been involved in the armed uprising from very early on and a NATO intervention would have been providing cover and safe zones for them. Secondly, most analysts agree that the conflict was going to be protracted regardless of whether there was an intervention - citing lack of a definite front and the unreadiness of the opposition to assume power. Thirdly the Arab countries in question are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Jordan, who would have been supporting the jihadists anyway for ideological reasons. Fourthly the intervention would have been conducted from Turkey and the Turkish strategy would be to support forces which are opposed to the Kurds. Fifthly the aim of the intervention would have been to marginalise Iran rather than to liberate Syria and thus would have leaned heavily on Sunni sectarian forces in any case.