And next, Syria?

[J Ed]

I wonder if this cessation of hostilities not ceasefire thing has come about because of the threat of Saudi Arabia to enter the war with troops on the ground

 

[Casually Red]

I wonder if this cessation of hostilities not ceasefire thing has come about because of the threat of Saudi Arabia to enter the war with troops on the ground

No because the Saudi Arabian army is stupendously shit .

 

[coley]

No because the Saudi Arabian army is stupendously shit .

But they have a very good Air Force, just saying, like.

 

[teqniq]

But they have a very good Air Force, just saying, like.

Yes but they are still doing stupendously shite in Yemen with all that nice UK and US hardware whilst causing enormous civilian casualties.

 

[Casually Red]

But they have a very good Air Force, just saying, like.

And the S 400 anti aircraft system that's based in Syria is also very good .

 

[coley]

And the S 400 anti aircraft system that's based in Syria is also very good .

Of course, it's Russian,

 

[Casually Red]

It's pretty damn good no matter who makes it .

S-400 (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They've this in Syria as well

Pantsir-S1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[coley]

Yes but they are still doing stupendously shite in Yemen with all that nice UK and US hardware whilst causing enormous civilian casualties.

Aye, as are the Russians in Syria with all their homegrown hardware,
The daftest buggers are the western airforces who, according to reports, routinely come back fully loaded because they can't identify legitimate targets!

 

[coley]

Of course, it's Russian,

As is the BUK, especially good at downing civilian jets!

 

[Casually Red]

Whatever the fuck that means.

I don't think it means all that much . It doesn't apply to Al Qaeda or Daesh. Both of whom are all over the place and will still be hit mercilessly . Looks to me like a means to get the other rebel groups to unhook themselves From their coalition with various jihadists so they can avoid being steam rollered . Logically it will apply mostly in the south , we're there are less Al Qaeda ..although still a fair amount . And which has been quieter due to the once much vaunted southern front being creamed by the Syrian Army who wiped out their big offensive last year . And who've been licking their wounds ever since .

If it works it'll free up a lot of Syrian troops from other fronts , as well as air strikes , which then can all be concentrated on the chief beardies In the north an east .
I'd also expect the next week to be particularly bloody as they all scramble for territory .

 

[Casually Red]

Aye, as are the Russians in Syria with all their homegrown hardware,
The daftest buggers are the western airforces who, according to reports, routinely come back fully loaded because they can't identify legitimate targets!

Have you not noticed the entire collapse of numerous rebel fronts over the past 6 weeks ? One thing that can't be said about the Russian campaign in Syria is that it's going shite . It's flattened the opposition . Absolutely fucked them .

 

[Casually Red]

Their shit hardware

 

[Doctor Carrot]

It's weapons wank time again is it?

'Aw yeah look at that hospital getting creamed by that Russian missile...'

 

[Casually Red]

Aye, as are the Russians in Syria with all their homegrown hardware,
The daftest buggers are the western airforces who, according to reports, routinely come back fully loaded because they can't identify legitimate targets!

That's the least of their problems Coley . Their strategy has been 2 pronged, drop bombs on jihadis..or often not as you point out . And give them guns and bombs at the very same time . Now thanks to Putin they can't even give them guns any more . They haven't a fucking clue what they're at and the result of their meddling is yet another destroyed country .

Some startling admissions there as to what's just happened . It's looking more like Putin has given them a face saver . An opportunity for Kerry and Obama to claim they've accomplished some progress . But he's well and truly knocked their military meddling for 6 . Well worth a read that one .

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/w...-war-has-sharply-reduced-us-options.html?_r=1

 

[Doctor Carrot]

So a vicious, murdering Arab dictator is now propped up by Russia instead of America. Wonderful. The long term security of the world will be improved immediately.

 

[Casually Red]

" running rings around...winning. ...Creating facts on the ground ."

Obama and Kerry "off balance..desperate...outgunned...clueless "

Some choice observations there .

Bullish Vladimir Putin is running rings around the west in Syria

People on here give me endless grief and abuse when I point this stuff out though .

 

[teqniq]

It might be that as the US has had a treaty and a 'special relationship' with Saudi for years then their potential involvement would be an escalation too far as when the Saudis came unstuck as they almost inevitably would the US would feel compelled to come to their assistance putting us all one step closer to WW III. If this is close to the mark then the Saudis have essentially forced the US's hand. /speculation

 

[teqniq]

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Reading the comments on that guardian piece is pretty depressing. It's amazing how many have swallowed the propaganda that CR has been touting this entire thread. Lots of celebration about how the Assad government will remain in power and lots of stupidity about how wonderful Syria will be when everyone can toddle off back to Syria and rebuild it as part of some collective heroic effort.

What I've seen really is breath taking hypocrisy. If the US had done what Russia has just done we know what the script of condemnation will be. Now Russia's propped up a murderous regime, put it's own citizens at further risk of terrorism on its streets, strengthened its own ties with a regime who publicly sanctions the beheading of homosexuals, all by bullying its way through with the use of air power and all for the interests of its oligarchs. Putin does all that and what does he get? Hooray! Woohoo for Putin, what a master strategist Putin is, he totally pwned the west duuude. Pathetic.

 

[camouflage]

Happily, it means fuck all to the price of rice what forum posters think.

 

[Flavour]

The ceasefire won't happen - any fool who believes the Russians and SAA will stop bombing whomsoever they please under the pretext that they are jihadists is seriously deluded. It's just another pathetic, vacuous diplomatic gesture with which western politicians hope to demonstrate to their own people that they are not doing "nothing", when in fact, they are doing nothing.

 

[camouflage]

 

[camouflage]

The ceasefire won't happen - any fool who believes the Russians and SAA will stop bombing whomsoever they please under the pretext that they are jihadists is seriously deluded. It's just another pathetic, vacuous diplomatic gesture with which western politicians hope to demonstrate to their own people that they are not doing "nothing", when in fact, they are doing nothing.

The RuAF and SAA will continue to attack ISIS and al Nusra (who as pointed out above have established themselves in Aleppo) in accordance with UN Resolution 2249 to continue to attack recognised terrorist groups:

“5. Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures, in compliance with international law, in particular with the United Nations Charter, as well as international human rights, refugee and humanitarian law, on the territory under the control of ISIL also known as Da’esh, in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL also known as Da’esh as well as ANF, and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al-Qaida, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the United Nations Security Council, and as may further be agreed by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) and endorsed by the UN Security Council, pursuant to the statement of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) of 14 November, and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria;

“6. Urges Member States to intensify their efforts to stem the flow of foreign terrorist fighters to Iraq and Syria and to prevent and suppress the financing of terrorism, and urges all Members States to continue to fully implement the above-mentioned resolutions;

http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/{65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9}/s_res_2249.pdf

I'm guessing rebel "FSA" type groups that have not un-linked from ISIS/al Qaeda by now (and joined SDF?) will indeed also be targeted. If you're not part of the dialogue (or refuse to be), you're part of the problem... straight forward enough, the very definition of "moderate" really. What would dialogue-refuseniks say anyway "Alahu Akbar!"

Frankly I find this jihadi-hugging attitude on the part of Westerners puzzling. The situation is bad now after the illegal Iraq invasion, after the US occupations Salvadore Option with associated training programs and CIA dodgy-dollars etc, after the Saudis and the Turks and the Qataris etc have been having whip-arounds for weapons to equip the various jihadi adventurers streaming in from across Europe and as far afield as Australia... now the people of Aleppo for instance have their city in the grip of these people and it won't be pretty or good for the health of Aleppans to remove them (it hasn't been good for their health to live under al Qaeda either, or to have their water and energy cut off by them). The solution is ugly and brutal and bloody and that's just the mess our whole 'Regime Change Jihad' has led to.

 

[coley]

I doubt this " cease fire" will be worth the paper it's printed on, as the regime and the Russians will continue to bomb anti Assad forces whether they are daesh or not.

 

[camouflage]

I agree with this analysis:

At first glance it looks like the preliminary agreement is a major diplomatic success for Russia and a defeat for Turkey and Gulf Arab states whose pet terrorist groups will not be allowed a respite, which after was the reason why they so desperately want a ceasefire. It is also a very good sign that Russia’s delegation did not succumb to the pressure by Turkey and even the EU which is unable to stand up to Erdogan’s “weaponization” of the refugees and accept a blanket ceasefire agreement that would have covered terrorist groups, which only would have prolonged the war in Syria by allowing the terrorists to regroup in preparation for the next round of fighting.

The ceasefire terms also provide an incentive to opposition groups to “dis-affiliate” themselves from the Islamic State, al-Nusra, ash-Sham, and other extremist organizations, and the best way to do that is, of course, to join the fight against them. Naturally, the devil is in the details and the proof of the pudding is in the eating–nobody knows what will actually happen. However, the preliminary agreement does allow Russia and Syria to continue fighting against the extremists while hopefully helping peel off as many opposition groups as possible away from the Islamist coalition.

Security Council ‘Unequivocally’ Condemns ISIL Terrorist Attacks, Unanimously Adopting Text that Determines Extremist Group Poses ‘Unprecedented’ Threat | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

 

[camouflage]

I doubt this " cease fire" will be worth the paper it's printed on, as the regime and the Russians will continue to bomb anti Assad forces whether they are daesh or not.

That's right, stick to the same old whollop. Meanwhile the context of the conflict on the ground has moved on. I wonder what the BBC/CNN message will become now... I'll try to pay more attention to your posts in a couple weeks time to see what's changed.

 

[likesfish]

The Assad family were and are bastards of the worst kind the saudis are relatively tame in comparision and rubbish at fighting so any attempt at them to intervene would be laughable.
The west managed to find people even worse than assad to back

 

[camouflage]

The Assad family were and are bastards of the worst kind the saudis are relatively tame in comparision and rubbish at fighting so any attempt at them to intervene would be laughable.
The west managed to find people even worse than assad to back

It was tough, but they stuck with it. The Syrian people had a brutal authoritarian state to live under (which they managed by the way... a lot of people who are dead now were born under that state). So then we decided to give them fresh new problems, harder and more killey, push their comfort envelope so to speak, help em grow in the face of new challenges. So a nice big regime change and some wild-eyed jihadi rule... and a war, why not. A nice big war always makes things more challenging. Let's see how they cope.

 

[likesfish]

Say one thing for blair and major when they decided to get their war on they went for it.
Dave ponyed up at least a dozen bombers hilary must be disappointed with all the fireworks being thrown around not sure crab airs is even going to be noticed.

 

[coley]

That's right, stick to the same old whollop. Meanwhile the context of the conflict on the ground has moved on. I wonder what the BBC/CNN message will become now... I'll try to pay more attention to your posts in a couple weeks time to see what's changed.

Whey, if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, anythings better than the current mess, but let's see if they continue the blanket bombing or if they actually now begin to target only Daesh.