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And next, Syria?

....and what?

It's clearly difficult for anyone to ascertain if the US military are following today any of what US General Wesley Clark stated back in 2007, so take the comment made as is.
 
So, when do we actually get to call this a civil war?

(Reuters) - Thousands of Syrian soldiers moved into the suburbs of Damascus that have fallen under rebel control on Sunday, killing five civilians, activists said, a day after the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission in Syria because of mounting violence.

Around 2,000 soldiers in buses and armored personnel carriers, along with at least 50 tanks and armored vehicles, moved at dawn into the eastern Ghouta area on the edge of Damascus to reinforce troops surrounding the suburbs of Saqba, Hammouriya and Kfar Batna, activists said......
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/29/us-syria-idUSTRE80S08620120129
 
audiotech said:
....and what?

It's clearly difficult for anyone to ascertain if the US military are following today any of what US General Wesley Clark stated back in 2007, so take the comment made as is.
Click to expand...

I think generally they would be happy with the fall of the regime as there is bad blood there that goes back decades, but at the same time they won't get out the champagne as what comes after could be an Islimist government that will bring new problems for the US to deal with. I would imagine that any help on the ground to rebel factions from the US would be very minimal although perhaps Qatar and Saudi Arabia may now play a part in funding and arming these groups.
 
@ bolshiebhoy So that's a no then? Seriously though I don't think (and hope) Nato will get any sort of mandate to invade or anything even though there is currently some sort of security council resolution in the works. Russia will veto anything like that. Its just that a few months ago any kind of protest in Damascus seemed unlikely (though government troops have now cleared the areas of Damascus that were occupied by SNC or whatever they are). 6,000 or so dead and it's not over or anywhere near yet, seems like it might be pretty close to civil war to me.
 
Divisive Cotton said:
I think generally they would be happy with the fall of the regime as there is bad blood there that goes back decades, but at the same time they won't get out the champagne as what comes after could be an Islimist government that will bring new problems for the US to deal with. I would imagine that any help on the ground to rebel factions from the US would be very minimal although perhaps Qatar and Saudi Arabia may now play a part in funding and arming these groups.
Click to expand...

The US won't have a problem with Islamists they can work with now will they? Tunisia was the economic model they liked, tyrannical and a police state, with a flexible slavish economy the IMF could do business with. All change now though, as Obama called for the arrest and exile of the Tunisian dictator (he'd already left the country). The US wanted him to stay and kill people to preserve the regime there, but hey even the US has to realise when they're onto a loser. The US can't have Hitler, then bring in Himmler, to coin a phrase (US wanted the head of Egypt secret service to take over from Hosni Murbarak for example). The US are the counter revolutionaries in the Arab uprisings, taking on board the services of the reactionary Muslim Brotherhood (let's not wait until they start slaughtering the secular left to condemn them eh?) in some areas, but there has been huge sacrifices (Egypt especially), so people not likely to give up the fight easily to anyone. I think the US would like to see a weakened regime in Syria, rather than see its overthrow. Israel too I suspect.
 
Had to smile wryly at Assad's decision to use heavy artillery rather than, say, aircraft. He's not going to make Gadaffi's big mistake.
 
This is well worth reading. All in all the situation in Syria is pretty bleak - a divided and unrepresentative official oppostion, few defections from the regime, a lingering mass support for the regime and so many outside interests.
 
It's all very depressing - looks like its starting to slip into a full civil war with powerful backers of both sides and both sides executing prisoners and carrying out atrocities etc. Add to this increasing levels of sectarian violence and fighting spreading across borders. A proxy war between Iran and Russia on one side Saudi and the West on the other.

One of the articals I was reading earlier talked of rumors of gas masks being distributed to army personnel. :(
 
5,000+ dead now.

My wife's step brother has been missing for 6 days now. Hopefully he's gone on the run to Jordan or been killed outright rather then languishing in one of the government's torture drop-in centres.
 
Sad, yes, but what is to be done? The Syrian resistance don't seem to have the force of numbers to overthrow Assaad without external assistance - obviously it would help if Russians (and Chinese?) weren't arming the Syrian military. I'm not going to argue for unilateral western "regime change", but at the same time the endless round of pointless hand-wringing is leaving people at the mercy of some fucking sadistic shit.
 
Some of that report makes for some very grim viewing.

The noise is relentless, I dread to think the number of people who will be affected with mental health conditions after this (specifically PTSD).

Such a waste of life. :(
 
It's not like it wasn't known that the Russian were supplying the Syrian army with ordnance - in fact I think a large shipment was delivered a couple of months ago but these are the mortar rounds currently being used on Homs:

tumblr_lzwj95PaWA1r2y8uzo1_400.jpg


Screen-grab showing the remnants of the tail section of Russian-made 240mm F-864 high explosive mortar bombs in Homs,

Video footage from Homs reviewed by Human Rights Watch indicates that the Syrian army has used Russian-made 240mm mortar systems against Homs. These systems fire the world’s largest high explosive mortar bomb, designed to “demolish fortifications and fieldworks” according to a Russian arms merchandizing catalogue. Read more here
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http://humanrightswatch.tumblr.com/post/18188237929/screen-grab-showing-the-remnants-of-the-tail
 
Echos of Moussa Koussa...

It's a proper balancing act for some, innit; stay too long and you'll end up at the ICC, leave too early and you're in limbo - and danger - if the regime doesn't fall. I guess Mr Hussameldin has made his call, presumably after getting assurances from the west he wouldn't be carted off to The Hague if he jumped ship now:


Syria's deputy oil minister defects from Assad regime

Abdo Hussameldin resigns on YouTube denouncing Bashar al-Assad and saying he is joining anti-government revolt
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/08/syria-deputy-oil-minister-defects-assad-regime
 
There must be an intense psy ops going on in the background like there was in Lybia

I see the father of wife of Assad - known as affectionately to her former school friends as Emma - spoke out publicly against the regime the other day. These are the sort of well-connected individuals that the secret services will want to bring on board.

But, Assad still has the support of the Great Leader Jr Jr:


Angus Walker ‏ @anguswalkeritv
#Syria Kim Jung Un sends goodwill message to Assad wishing him "success in your responsible work "
Click to expand...
 
I think the news about the defecting minister is highly significant. The thing that will cause the regime to collapse is politics. When you get high level defections, you know that those at the top know that the days of the regime are numbered.
 
The Guardian said:
The government, which is controlled by Assad's minority Alawite sect
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Notice how the media are pushing the sectarian angle just as they did over Bahrain.
 
The US and other Western powers appear reluctant in supplying any weapons to the rebels. Thousands are leaving Syria. Reports are suggesting that Assad will eventually step aside and an interim government will be put in place, led by hard-line supporters of Assad, expected to crush any remnants of the rebel fighters left and their supporters. Some reforms will then be introduced. Meanwhile, the violence will continue and is expected to be bloody and brutal.
 
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