And next, Syria?

[elbows]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/10280402

Associated Press= LONDON (AP) — A British journalist claims Syrian rebels set him up to die in no man's land near the Lebanese border, saying Friday he believes they wanted to use his death at the hands of government forces to score propaganda points.
Channel 4 News's chief correspondent Alex Thomson said the incident happened Monday in the Syrian town of Qusair, about half an hour's drive from the battered city of Homs.
In a blog post published to Channel 4's website and in an email exchange with The Associated Press, Thomson said he, his driver, a translator, and two other journalists were trying to return to government lines when their rebel escort led them down what he described as a dead-end in the middle of a "free-fire zone." A shot rang out, and he said their car made a series of panicky maneuvers before retreating the way it came.
Thomson claimed that they weren't led into no man's land by mistake.
"I'm quite clear the rebels deliberately set us up to be shot by the Syrian army," he wrote in the post, explaining that their deaths at the hands of President Bashar Assad's forces would have drawn sympathy to the rebel cause. "Dead journos are bad for Damascus," he said.

 

[Fuchs66]

Journalists tend to be either hopelessly naiive or brutally searching for the next gory scoop as the last 2 posts seem to illustrate.

 

[yield]

Hmmm would like to hear what posters here think is the best course of action for the international community rather than speculate about possible CIA involvement of the opposition.

Not saying this isn't the case just as there is probably FSB involvement on the side of the government and probably elsewhere.

Which International Community? The West?

Nato's best course of action would be to provoke Assad into something so horrific he'd lose Russian support.

Is the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov still in Tartus?

Without aircraft Nato would have to continue through Turkey.

 

[Raminta]

Is anybody missed my post. I think is importand to look at it. Warning disturbing some images.
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2...ula-hoaxsters/

 

[yield]

For sure. Lots of propaganda flying around.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Iraq-photo-to-illustrate-Syrian-massacre.html
"accidentally" used the pictures to show mass deaths in Syria, using a photo from Iraq 2003. They do shit like this all the time. You just got to catch them. I remember also the videos showing something about some of the videos on the beeb coming from Lybia and Egypt were from somewhere else and from another time.

 

[Fuchs66]

Which International Community? The West?

No I mean the general International "community" as far as we can speak of community, but tbh if it comes to military measures only NATO and the Russian Federation seem to have the resources and ability to carry anything out. Neither is keen on this due to the fact that there would be election threatening losses and/or the RF would hate to lose influence (even if the chances of them losing influence in the region increase if they do nothing IMO).

NATO's best course of action would be to provoke Assad into something so horrific he'd lose Russian support.

That would have to be something extreme if the events so far haven't in your opinion been horrific enough. Also how do you think NATO would be able to provoke this?

the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov still in Tartus?

No idea

Without aircraft Nato would have to continue through Turkey.

?????? Not sure what you're getting at there.

 

[yield]

No I mean the general International "community" as far as we can speak of community, but tbh if it comes to military measures only NATO and the Russian Federation seem to have the resources and ability to carry anything out. Neither is keen on this due to the fact that there would be election threatening losses and/or the RF would hate to lose influence (even if the chances of them losing influence in the region increase if they do nothing IMO).

As you said the Russian and American elites. Everyone else doesn't get a vote.

That would have to be something extreme if the events so far haven't in your opinion been horrific enough. Also how do you think NATO would be able to provoke this?

You're right. The Russians have thick skin.

No idea

I believe it is.

?????? Not sure what you're getting at there.

That's what Nato are doing at the moment.

 

[Fuchs66]

As you said the Russian and American elites. Everyone else doesn't get a vote.

Define "elite" might isn't right despite the realities of the world (further NATO isn't the US alone even though they represent the biggest partner in the Organisation) I was merely talking about capabilities I would much prefer a more mixed reaction but the reality is that most countries simply dont have the ability. Which is a good thing for most of the time, although not necessarily now.

right. The Russians have thick skin.

Yes, but you still haven't explained what event you would consider horrific enough to motivate the Russians to act.

I believe it is.

Possibly

That's what Nato are doing at the moment.

What? They have no aircraft? I understand a reluctance to fly over a country armed with S300s and S400s but last time I checked they still have aircraft.

 

[yield]

Define "elite" might isn't right despite the realities of the world (further NATO isn't the US alone even though they represent the biggest partner in the Organisation) I was merely talking about capabilities I would much prefer a more mixed reaction but the reality is that most countries simply dont have the ability. Which is a good thing for most of the time, although not necessarily now.

"not necessarily now" would require arms proliferation something I'd have thought you'd be against.

Yes, but you still haven't explained what event you would consider horrific enough to motivate the Russians to act.

I started to think about Chechnya. Then realised my idea was stupid.

What? They have no aircraft? I understand a reluctance to fly over a country armed with S300s and S400s but last time I checked they still have aircraft.

Nato cannot park a battle group off the coast of Syria like it did with Libya and Iraq.

 

[DownwardDog]

I understand a reluctance to fly over a country armed with S300s and S400s but last time I checked they still have aircraft.

No S400s in Syria. Also their S300s proved of zero utility when the IDF bombed Syria's nuclear shit in 2007.

 

[Fuchs66]

"not necessarily now" would require arms proliferation something I'd have thought you'd be against.

Of course, I am I am merely trying to work out what would be the best way to get out of a shitty situation without making it even more shitty.

started to think about Chechnya. Then realised my idea was stupid.

Those were the lines along which I was thinking, I dont believe there is much that Assad can do that would shock the Russians.

cannot park a battle group off the coast of Syria like it did with Libya and Iraq.

They wouldn't need to, plenty of bases close enough, Malta, Cyprus, Italy etc

 

[Fuchs66]

No S400s in Syria. Also their S300s proved of zero utility when the IDF bombed Syria's nuclear shit in 2007.

Regarding the S400s I heard differently recently, I was surprised too. I have the feeling the Syrians may have learnt their lesson a bit since 2007 there are certainly people nervous about their capability.

 

[teqniq]

I don't know what to believe really, except that lots of civilians are dying. That much seems fairly obvious.

@ Raminta. I have seen that claim in the Antiwar piece concerning the photo supposedly taken in Syria, taken in Iraq on Russia Today.

Lots of hidden and not so hidden agendas.

 

[DownwardDog]

Regarding the S400s I heard differently recently, I was surprised too. I have the feeling the Syrians may have learnt their lesson a bit since 2007 there are certainly people nervous about their capability.

Maj. Gen. Bondarev (who was VVS Chief of Staff but recently got the CiC job) said in an interview with AFM in March this year that the Triumf/Growler is currently unavailable for export. Possible maskirovka I guess.

One thing you can say for sure about the Syrian armed forces is that they don't learn from experience. My father in law was in the Syrian army for over 20 years and his yarns indicate a climate of continous paranoia, surveillance and random sacking/imprisonment that doesn't exactly lead to the frank and fearless examination of past failings. The Syrians haven't even effectively processed the lessons of Mole Cricket 19 in 1982 never mind Orchard in 2007.

 

[Fuchs66]

Maj. Gen. Bondarev (who was VVS Chief of Staff but recently got the CiC job) said in an interview with AFM in March this year that the Triumf/Growler is currently unavailable for export. Possible maskirovka I guess.

One thing you can say for sure about the Syrian armed forces is that they don't learn from experience. My father in law was in the Syrian army for over 20 years and his yarns indicate a climate of continous paranoia, surveillance and random sacking/imprisonment that doesn't exactly lead to the frank and fearless examination of past failings. The Syrians haven't even effectively processed the lessons of Mole Cricket 19 in 1982 never mind Orchard in 2007.

You may be right about the S400s, but the Russians haven't got an excellent reputation for being entirely honest when it comes to arms deals and there have been exports to Syria since March, so who knows?

As for the Syrian military I will bow to your greater knowledge, its not a group of people I have had a lot of contact with.

 

[DownwardDog]

As for the Syrian military I will bow to your greater knowledge, its not a group of people I have had a lot of contact with.

I've been to Syria many times but my only direct contact with the armed forces was at Incirlik AFB in Turkey in the late 90s. A SyAAF Mi-8/Hip clattered into view and landed on a taxiway. (WTF?) As the crew disembarked in a dense cloud of Gauloise smoke they were followed by some little bloke dressed like Borat. The Turks told us the apparently supernumerary civvie on the crew was from the Syrian internal security apparatus and was a mandatory passenger on all military helicopter flights that went within 10km of or crossed an international border!

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I wonder how long before frustration sets in and there is a hardline coup against Bashar al-Assad?

 

[TomUS]

I wonder how long before frustration sets in and there is a hardline coup against Bashar al-Assad?

With the violence showing no signs of abating & fighting now going on in Damascus, it does look likely that some generals will do a Ceausescu on him.

 

[thriller]

I wonder how long before frustration sets in and there is a hardline coup against Bashar al-Assad?

Coup by whom? Doubt any of members of the alawait sect would overthrow Assad. Once the sunnis get hands on the wheels of power, it's over for the shia sect. Can't see a coup happening.

 

[Sirena]

Coup by whom? Doubt any of members of the alawait sect would overthrow Assad. Once the sunnis get hands on the wheels of power, it's over for the shia sect. Can't see a coup happening.

I agree. I haven't seen any defections and the only disarray is among the insurgents.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Coup by whom? Doubt any of members of the alawait sect would overthrow Assad. Once the sunnis get hands on the wheels of power, it's over for the shia sect. Can't see a coup happening.

a coup for the hardliners centered around his brother

 

[thriller]

that is never going to happen. How much more hardline can you get?

 

[Raminta]

Things getting ugly. Some Bosnian folks told me already USA troops deployed in Bosnia what are hell world getting on that. Big blow up around the world, I hate to say we will suffer from this wars until we sit and do nothing.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I can see it happening:

Paul Danahar ‏@pdanahar
"Send Bashar to the clinic & Maher to the leadership" is chant from some pro-gov people in Damacus who want tougher line. #Syria RT 4 typo

 

[teqniq]

And if you thought things were bad under Bashar, Maher looks like he might be a psychopath.

 

[Knotted]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/10280402

This is an important story. It shows the depths some in the Syrian opposition will (allegedly) go to.

This is also extremely disturbing, if true. It's been translated in part here.

According to the witness accounts the massacre happened during this timeframe. Killed were nearly exclusively families from the Alawi and Shia minorities in Houla which has a more than 90% Sunni population. Several dozen members of one extended family, which had in recent years converted from Sunni to Shia believe, were slaughtered. Also killed were members of the Alawi family Shomaliya and the family of a Sunni member of parliament who was [by the rebels] considered a government collaborator.​

​

​

 

[teqniq]

Syria's dead are victims of the new Cold War

In the Mail online of all places. A reprise of the Graun article that elbows linked to plus some other stuff. Very sceptical and good to see in the Mail as it's likely to reach a lot more people.

 

[Sirena]

Syria's dead are victims of the new Cold War

In the Mail online of all places. A reprise of the Graun article that elbows linked to plus some other stuff. Very sceptical and good to see in the Mail as it's likely to reach a lot more people.

It is good to see that piece.

 

[Riklet]

I have a friend in Jordan at the moment who's quite close to the Syrian border, he's thinking about trying to cross it tomorrow -- bravely/insanely (i think he's bonkers), will be really interesting hearing his take on things as he's pretty apolitical and stuff.

He's seen and heard a fair few (presumably Jordanian) fighter jets about, lots of practice military operations and stuff apparently, "in case shit explodes" in his words.

Sounds really ugly there, even more than before.

 

[Sirena]

One thing that worries me is Hillary Clinton shouting that the Syrian Army/establishment are planning a new massacre (as if they do massacres by pre-arranged schedule or somesuch) and, at the same time, Russia Today is suggesting that the Free Syrian Army have, somehow, got chemical weapons from a Gaddafi-era stockpile in Libya.