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And next, Syria?

Compare and contrast the information sources. Possibly somewhere in between might be a grain of truth.
 
Sirena said:
One thing that worries me is Hillary Clinton shouting that the Syrian Army/establishment are planning a new massacre (as if they do massacres by pre-arranged schedule or somesuch) and, at the same time, Russia Today is suggesting that the Free Syrian Army have, somehow, got chemical weapons from a Gaddafi-era stockpile in Libya.
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After getting shafted at the UN over regime change in Libya, and with more at stake, Russia's otnosheniya or relationship with Syria, and one based on realpolitik, will be the same now till Assad's bitter end or maybe victory. The violence in Syria, it's an outrage! Which of course it is, but the same types shouting something akin to the former were in comparison only a bit concerned publicly or not bothered at all when US and EU-supported Saudi and Emirate forces helped to crush the people of Bahrain.
 
barney_pig said:
the BBC is quoting a reuters source that the russians are preparing to send marines to protect their interests'
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Keep your eyes on this, the Russians may go on to secure more than their own interests. They have the chance of coming out of this with a lot of good PR (chances are equally good that they fuck up totally but wait and see).
 
Syria downs Turkish jet, Ankara to act decisively
reuters Sat Jun 23, 2012
A statement by the Syrian military said the Turkish plane was flying low, just one kilometre off the Syrian coast, when it was hit by anti-aircraft fire. The plane fell in Syrian waters 10-kms (seven miles) west of the village of Um al-Touyour.
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It was unclear why the Syrians had shot down the aircraft, which, having left a base in Malatya, was flying close to a corridor linking Turkey with Turkish forces on Northern Cyprus.
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Upped the ante.
 
Seems the turks have admited it was in syrian airspace. Syrians have ever right to shot the fighter jet down.
 
thriller said:
Seems the turks have admited it was in syrian airspace. Syrians have ever right to shot the fighter jet down.
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There would be an awful lot of aircraft getting shot down if every country launched a SAM on every unauthorised incursion. Interception would be the SOP. Do you risk starting a war just because some useless turd can't read a map or has inop nav kit?
 
DownwardDog said:
There would be an awful lot of aircraft getting shot down if every country launched a SAM on every unauthorised incursion. Interception would be the SOP. Do you risk starting a war just because some useless turd can't read a map or has inop nav kit?
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So what do you think DownwardDog? The reuters link
"The Syrian military may have taken a calculated gamble by downing the Turkish plane, which could boost the morale of Assad's loyalists after increased defections from the military we have seen," Yasser Saadeldine, a prominent pro-opposition Syrian political commentator, said.

"A Turkish retaliation would fit into the fantasy he (Assad)is peddling that the uprising is a foreign conspiracy."
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For sure the Syrian elite are getting desperate. More likely to be air defence with an itchy finger?
 
DownwardDog said:
There would be an awful lot of aircraft getting shot down if every country launched a SAM on every unauthorised incursion. Interception would be the SOP. Do you risk starting a war just because some useless turd can't read a map or has inop nav kit?
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well we are not talking about "every country" are we? we are talking about a nation probably heading towards civil war. One which boarders another that is allowing "terrorists/freedom fighters" to be based on it's territory. a country facing sanctions. a regime under pressure. all this makes it rightly nervous when a fighter jet flys into it's airspace. given the circumstances, dont blame them for shooting it down.
 
yield said:
So what do you think DownwardDog? The reuters link

For sure the Syrian elite are getting desperate. More likely to be air defence with an itchy finger?
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Despite the fact that the uprising has plenty to do with the will of many Syrians, its simply not possible to take seriously the idea that the 'foreign conspiracy' angle is a complete fantasy. Foreign aspects are as overt as they were with Libya, despite the lack of no-fly-zone:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/saudi-arabia-syria-rebel-army


Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.
The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.
Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.
Turkey has also allowed the establishment of a command centre in Istanbul which is co-ordinating supply lines in consultation with FSA leaders inside Syria. The centre is believed to be staffed by up to 22 people, most of them Syrian nationals.
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And I have to say the Guardian seem to be particularly in love with this conflict, practically gushing to describe stuff in terms of battlefields.
 
elbows said:
Despite the fact that the uprising has plenty to do with the will of many Syrians, its simply not possible to take seriously the idea that the 'foreign conspiracy' angle is a complete fantasy. Foreign aspects are as overt as they were with Libya, despite the lack of no-fly-zone:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/saudi-arabia-syria-rebel-army
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Definitely. As I said up the thread Nato and the Arab league are fighting a proxy war through Turkey.

Explainer: Why Is Access To Syria's Port At Tartus So Important To Moscow?
 
yield said:
For sure the Syrian elite are getting desperate. More likely to be air defence with an itchy finger?
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Panic fuelled impulse seems more likely than some overarching masterplan to me. That's not to say the Syrians won't market the incident in a manner that suits their narrative now it's happened.
 
elbows said:
And I have to say the Guardian seem to be particularly in love with this conflict, practically gushing to describe stuff in terms of battlefields.
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I've noticed this. They never seem to write anything positive about Syria. It's all torture this and bloody mutilation of little kids that. That's liberals for you.
 
I'm all for democracy in the middle east, but must admit, I'm not so supportive of it in Syria. Overthrow of assad means sunnis in power who will cut off political and arms link with Hezbollah. This will be a hugh boost to Israel. Hezbollah is the most effective resistance movement to Israel in the Middle East.
 
That's right ' thriller', democracy, like communism, human rights, and usery, is just another Jewish plot; far better for the ignorant Arabs to be kept in line by benevolent tyrants who keep to western lefty agendas.
 
Dan U said:
Turkey are now saying the jet was shot down in international airspace, but had been in Syrias airspace beforehand by 'mistake'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568412

does/can this kind of thing be independently verified?
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Radar logs (Greek, British, Turkish, US, Syrian and possibly Russian) would show it although those involved may not be totally willing to share the details are it would reveal capabilities...

The Turkish RF-4Es have quite sophisticated digital FMS and nav kit (courtesy of their Israeli buddies) which is accurate down to < 10m that would have track data. However, assuming it survived the initial encounter with the SA-22 warhead and subsequent rapid dispatch to the bottom of the Med, it would have to be found and recovered.
 
thriller said:
I'm all for democracy in the middle east, but must admit, I'm not so supportive of it in Syria. Overthrow of assad means sunnis in power who will cut off political and arms link with Hezbollah. This will be a hugh boost to Israel. Hezbollah is the most effective resistance movement to Israel in the Middle East.
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Assad has probably slaughtered more innocents in the last year than Israel has in the last 30 or 40. And of course Syria, Iran & Hez don't give a damn about the Palestinians. The Assad dynasty has had it's boot on the throat of the vast majority of Syrians since before the '73 war. Assad probably helps Israel's image by comparison. Time for him to go, even if it means outside intervention, which is already happening.
 
ANKARA: A Syrian general, two colonels two majors, one lieutenant and 33 soldiers have defected from President Bashar al-Assad's forces and arrived in Turkey, Turkish state television said on Monday, without giving any further details.

The private news channel CNN Turk also reported the defections of the soldiers, but said they had arrived with members of their families, making a total of 224 individuals.
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http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...ey.ashx?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 
The UN monitors have pointedly not confirmed that pro-regime forces carried out the Houla massacre. Sometimes no news is quite significant:
A United Nations investigation into the killing of more than 100 civilians in the Syrian area of Houla last month says forces loyal to the government "may have been responsible" for many of the deaths.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/27/syria-loyalists-houla-massacre-un?newsfeed=true
From the reports it seems that both sides may have participated in a massacre and counter massacre.

Activists said that much of the slaughter had been carried out by pro-government thugs, or “shabiha,” from the area. Houla is a Sunni Muslim town, while three villages around it are mostly Alawite, the religion of President ​
Bashar al-Assad​
and whose adherents are the core of his security forces. A fourth village is Shiite Muslim.​
​
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​
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/w...oll-in-village-soars.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

The NYT's wording here is interesting. "Much of the slaughter"...
 
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