Laura K is being briefed that the Tories are almost certainly going to trigger Article 16
An in-depth look at the likely consequences if post Brexit talks on the Northern Ireland border fail.
www.bbc.co.uk
I'm told there have been discussions about starting the process, even early next week.
Don't panic, this does not seem to have yet been resolved.
Some in government are arguing for more explanation of the case to the public before drastic action is taken.
One insider described a "reasonableness test". Another said that the UK government wanted to build an "evidence base" to demonstrate why they felt the action had to be taken, before going public.
Some of the smart money is on the bust-up not coming until December, with one government source suggesting on Thursday: "We're going to see a bit more time pass before it happens."
Whatever the moment, unless something very unexpected happens, or the negotiators and politicians on both sides have personality transplants, it seems like Article 16 will be introduced before too long.
The likely impact of the move seems less certain than whether Boris Johnson and Lord Frost take the decision.
It hasn't happened before, so there is no real precedent.
And there are different schools of thought. First, it's important to understand that triggering Article 16 is starting a dispute process.
It's not one moment, but the start of many.
One source says some Brexiteer MPs "think you trigger it and everyone starts singing Rule Britannia - no one is asking themselves what happens after you trigger".
Theoretically, the process begins with a month of intense technical talks to try to resolve the dispute.
If that doesn't work, there would probably then be an emergency meeting of EU leaders, to take the decision up to prime ministers, not just the EU Commission.
There could be different forms of restrictions on trade, specific sanctions, or they could give notice that they would tear up the whole trade agreement, which Ireland warned might happen this week.
Without getting too technical, the trigger could end up with grumpy talks dragging on over many months with lots of politicking but not much changing practically.
Both sides could, in a genuine way, join together to try to work things out.
Or the trigger could, as one observer warned, boil over into a "full scale trade war that undermines the UK and the EU's post-Covid economic recovery".
The economic consequences of that could be profound for us all, if the argument really went that far.
And what would Number 10 do in the end, if the UK didn't get what it wanted?
If, as another source suggests, Boris Johnson "triggers the process, it finds against the UK….and ultimately the European Court says you must comply - he's snookered".
www.independent.co.uk
despite them not having any sensible reasons why.
