2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[ska invita]

In case anyone is interested: Left Unity candidates’ results so far

Wigan
Wigan West
Phyllis Cullen (Labour) 1726
John Atherton (UKIP) 718
Hazel Duffy (Left Unity) 252 – 8.8%
Jean Peet (Conservative) 153

Atherton
Karen Aldred (Labour) 1494
John Higson (Independent) 1106
Paul Fairhurst (Conservative) 374
Craig Wilson (Left Unity) 129 – 4.2%

Atherleigh
Pamela Stewart (Labour) 1152
Stuart Gerrard (Independent) 750
Denise Young (Conservative) 339
Stephen Hall (Left Unity) 85 – 3.7%

Pemberton
Paul Prescott (Labour) 1632
Alan Freeman (UKIP) 692
Jonathan Cartwright (Conservative) 195
Adele Andrews (Left Unity) 85 – 3.3%

Ince
James Moodie (Labour) 1397
Ross Wright (UKIP) 851
Raymond Whittingham (Conservative) 133
Janet Phillips (Left Unity) 79 – 3.2%

Hindley
James Talbot (Labour) 1418
Brian Ellis (Independent) 913
Gerard Houlton (Conservative) 263
Ian Heyes (Left Unity) 78 – 2.9%

Aspull New Springs Whelley
Ron Conway (Labour) 1581
Maureen McCoy (UKIP) 827
Janet Brown (Independent) 547
Jane Surples (Conservative) 393
Stuart Bolton (Left Unity) 88 – 2.6%

Note that Norwich, Exeter and Barnet election counts will not finish until Friday afternoon.

 

[marty21]

more Tory talk of an electoral pact with UKIP , senior Tories saying it won't happen - others saying it will - Cameron in a difficult position - (lol) if he goes for a pact he will be seen as panicking and pandering to racists - if he doesn't and they lose the general election - he's out of a job (but able to join the Blair style gravy train)

 

[redsquirrel]

- but the local election distribution of their vote (with all the caveats you mention) will be the most interestng figure.

According to Anthony Wells it's been pretty equal across the country so far

 

[belboid]

He's done a bit of leafleting on his own but it's not been a target seat - nice surprise - seem to be doing well in areas like that, the was the Arbourthorne by election result as well. Expecting to get squeezed out by the Greens in the student wards though.

really?Considering how long you've stood there, I'd have thought it would be a good bet.

Richmond went.....less well

 

[SpookyFrank]

more Tory talk of an electoral pact with UKIP , senior Tories saying it won't happen - others saying it will - Cameron in a difficult position - (lol) if he goes for a pact he will be seen as panicking and pandering to racists - if he doesn't and they lose the general election - he's out of a job (but able to join the Blair style gravy train)

I think he'd rather lose than get into bed with Farage tbh. But then it's far from clear that UKIP will get any seats in parliament, and it seems pretty unlikely they'll get enough to make much difference to who forms the next government.

 

[belboid]

Greens look on for two gains in Sheffield. Everything else, as you were

 

[Pickman's model]

ed miliband: i'll win back ukip voters before general election: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27533330

 

[dennisr]

Dave Nellist got around 30% - didn't get in though. OK, thats both of the good results for TUSC over and done with.... now for the electoral drubbing....

 

[Badgers]

ed miliband: i'll win back ukip voters before general election: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27533330

The lad is a trooper

 

[butchersapron]

I think he'd rather lose than get into bed with Farage tbh. But then it's far from clear that UKIP will get any seats in parliament, and it seems pretty unlikely they'll get enough to make much difference to who forms the next government.

No, it seems far likely they will block the tories from being able to form a majority govt than making no difference at all.

 

[marty21]

I think he'd rather lose than get into bed with Farage tbh. But then it's far from clear that UKIP will get any seats in parliament, and it seems pretty unlikely they'll get enough to make much difference to who forms the next government.

UKIP are more likely to take votes of Tories and in a close election, marginal seats would be key - 10/20 marginals - if the Tories lost those they are out - and generally the incumbent party loses votes anyway, they can't afford to lose the marginals

 

[SpookyFrank]

No, it seems far likely they will block the tories from being able to form a majority govt than making no difference at all.

What I meant was they'd be unlikely to have enough seats to be the junior partners in a coalition, but yes if they split the tory vote while lib dem supporters defect to labour that could make all the difference.

 

[SpineyNorman]

really?Considering how long you've stood there, I'd have thought it would be a good bet.

Richmond went.....less well

Not stood in manor castle for a while - I moved to Sheffield in 2010 and we didn't stand there then and this is the first time I've seen us stand there. He is local and relatively well known and liked though from what I can gather which helps.

In a lot of wards we just stood paper candidates (not sure where I stand on that tbh) and did no work at all which explains the 50s etc. I stood in one ward (not telling cos you'll all take the piss but it's not been announced yet) and I'm expecting something like that - might have done a bit better but the Greens have really been going for it and I think we'll get badly squeezed, especially as I've done virtually no campaigning cos it's fallen right in the middle of my finals.

 

[HST]

we can tell, very easily, that its coming from both - and libscum, and those who havent bothered for years. Still affecting the tories most, but definitely eating into Labour now too

You may well be right but it's just guesswork. I'd reckon Labour have lost more to the disenchanted/why bother voting tendency than they have to UKIP. As we don't know every voter's politcal history we'll never be able to tell.

 

[belboid]

I know where you're standing Spiney

Fucking UKIP are now represented, won West Eccy off the libs

 

[Cid]

I know where you're standing Spiney

Fucking UKIP are now represented, won West Eccy off the libs

That's definitely not on the council website...

 

[belboid]

no, thats stopped being uodated it seems. As soon as Labour confirmed they'd retained control, the workers obviously went 'sod this then' For once, its worth looking at The Star

 

[belboid]

Green gain in Central, thats all three seats there for them

 

[Teaboy]

Tories have pummelled the lib dems in my part of London with an increase of 9% of seats coming exclusively from the yellow lot, currently I'm unable to find the % swing in actual votes but still.........................

............this is slightly interesting because the tories only won this council from the lib dems last time around and Richmond Park should be a top target for lib dems at the next GE. Also this area contains St Vince's seat in Twickenham, that sort of swing in a GE makes him look very vulnerable, hilariously vulnerable actually.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I know where you're standing Spiney

OK, now I'm afraid

Fucking UKIP are now represented, won West Eccy off the libs

I though west eccy was labour?

They missed a trick not standing in Manor Castle IMO, with the kinds of leaflets they've been putting out in w/c wards round here (anti-cuts, council house building, protection of benefits) I think they'd have taken most of our vote and a decent chunk from labour.

 

[belboid]

I though west eccy was labour?

east eccys labour. They've just won there too

 

[fucthest8]

I'm please to say that Labour hold Exeter (I didn't vote for them, but better them than anyone else) and early indications are that we remain a UKIP free zone.

Labour gain 3 seats, Libs lose 2, Cons lose a seat they have held for 32 years. Nice.

 

[SpineyNorman]

east eccys labour. They've just won there too

I know where I went wrong now - labour won there in 2012 but of course that won't be the outgoing councilor will it? It'll be whoever was elected in 2010 I guess.

 

[belboid]

Labour gain 3 seats, Libs lose 2, Cons lose a seat they have held for 32 years. Nice.

you didnt notice how Dave Parks did, did you? Not sure which ward he was up in

 

[hipipol]

TBF it might be a good idea for the Tories to have a coalition with UKIP
Quickest way to get rid of em
Looks what its done for the LibDems!!

 

[SpineyNorman]

TUSC beat lib dems in Arbourthorne again - 227 votes to 212

 

[belboid]

TUSC beat lib dems in Arbourthorne again - 227 votes to 212

not bad, not bad

 

[Nylock]

Tories nudging ahead of LD's on losses 132/130

 

[Fez909]

 

[Fez909]

More Liberal drubbing


Hyde Park is student central, for those who don't know.