2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[Pickman's model]

The exact opposite has been happening. UKIP has been hoovering up labour voters in w/c areas damaging labours popular vote and costing them seats all over.

tbh i don't think that's wholly true. look at somewhere like redbridge, where labour controls the council now for the first time.

 

[butchersapron]

i can believe that, but what im wondering is if those fairweather unswingable-to-ukip labour supporters out there made more of an effort to get to the polls than normal

Well, if they had that would be reflected in the results so far - and it isn't.

(fairweather means the opposite of the above btw)

 

[Pickman's model]

A few results aren't expected until tonight, Tower Hamlets 6.30pm for example.

or even later, till they can find a way to er massage the figures.

 

[ska invita]

(fairweather means the opposite of the above btw)

doesnt fair weather mean they only come out if the weather is nice - not going to bust a gut if its raining? my point being that theyd go in the rain to vote against ukip

 

[SpookyFrank]

or even later, till they can find a way to er massage the figures.

I'm sure there's still time to evict another few hundred thousand people from central london.

 

[butchersapron]

tbh i don't think that's wholly true. look at somewhere like redbridge, where labour controls the council now for the first time.

Of course there's going to be variations, but the general pattern from the results in from solid labour seats (and that result above would suggets redbridge isn't one of these areas anyway) is labour holding onto most of their seats on a reduced or static vote and UKIP scoring healthily - often almost to the exact same figures as labour have dropped.

 

[Pickman's model]

Of course there's going to be variations, but the general pattern from the results in from solid labour seats (and that result above would suggets redbridge isn't one of these areas anyway) is labour holding onto most of their seats on a reduced or static vote and UKIP scoring healthily - often almost to the exact same figures as labour have dropped.

i haven't had the time to look into this as closely as i'd like but i wouldn't be surprised. there was a particularly large labour turnout in some areas last time round, e.g. barking, to stop the bnp getting in and of course it was the same night as the general election so it's no great surprise there's been a decline in the labour vote.

 

[butchersapron]

doesnt fair weather mean they only come out if the weather is nice - not going to bust a gut if its raining? my point being that theyd go in the rain to vote against ukip

It does, yeah. Sorry, i thought you were using it to simply mean would support labour no matter what. Turnouts and results would suggest that this isn't the case anyway.

 

[ska invita]

are there turnout figures yet?

 

[butchersapron]

are there turnout figures yet?

Yes there have been plenty released - hull 21% for example.

 

[redsquirrel]

are there turnout figures yet?

Early indications suggest that turnout in the English local election is up about 5% on 2012, suggesting it could end up at about 36%.

from the BBC

 

[butchersapron]

In terms of good things labour can take from this - a number of strong performances in the south (london esp) in the seats they need to target in the GE i think.

 

[Red Storm]

are there turnout figures yet?

Lowest I've seen is 17% in Atherton in Leigh.

 

[Pickman's model]

i see the ruc have lost a councillor, and are holding steady on 0.

 

[ska invita]

"The Greens have won their first ever seat in Wirral taking Birkenhead and Tranmere from Labour, reports BBC Radio Merseyside."

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Greens just won my ward.

http://www.wirral.gov.uk/election/results/2014-05-22/BirkenheadandTranmere.shtm

 

[seventh bullet]

No PD candidates locally?

It depends what you mean by 'locally.' Our solar system?

 

[butchersapron]

Sefton Ravenmeols :

Community Action Not Party Politics - 1,649
Labour - 1,137
Conservative - 725

 

[Red Storm]

Green gain a cllr in Birkenhead and Tranmere

 

[Badgers]

Tory 103 and LibDem 104 now so the power struggle goes on!!!

Tory 112 and LibDem 110

They are racing along

 

[rekil]

It depends what you mean by 'locally.' Our solar system?

Think Local, Act Galactical.

 

[Badgers]

Is there an online swingometer?

 

[ska invita]

Sefton Ravenmeols :

Community Action Not Party Politics - 1,649
Labour - 1,137
Conservative - 725

do you know more about them?

 

[scifisam]

I'm starting to wonder if my ward is ever going to declare.

 

[Coolfonz]

The exact opposite has been happening. UKIP has been hoovering up labour voters in w/c areas damaging labours popular vote and costing them seats all over.

In Essex and Kent? I don't know if many people made an effort to vote. A 36pc turnout of registered voters, not adults eligible to vote. I can't see Labour voters being very motivated with the schmuck leading them.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

do you know more about them?

Seems to be something to do with this lot.

http://www.fragoff.co.uk/

 

[butchersapron]

do you know more about them?

Nope - first thought they may be part of the split from the Community Action Party split from labour, but can't find anything to support that and it's in slightly the wrong area.

 

[belboid]

UKIP spokesman: "We don't tend to do well in London because it's cultural, educated and young."

(sourced from Twitter, and can't find the original source.)

it was their business spokesman (a youngish city trader) on the beeb around 3am last night

 

[Badgers]

The British National Party seem to be plateauing a bit
Still alphabetically ahead of the English Democrats so that is a victory of sorts

 

[butchersapron]

Seems to be something to do with this lot.

http://www.fragoff.co.uk/

Yeah was the parry bennet was supposed to be standing under.