ska invita
back on the other side
We are F.R.A.G.O.F.F. which stands for Formby Residents Action Group Opposition From Formby.
2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results
- Thread starter redsquirrel
- Start date
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Well look at Thurrock and Basildon. But my point was that there doesn't appear to be a large anti-ukip labour turnout going on the results thus far.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
does this mean we're going to have to change our home shirt colour?
At least no one should be able to accuse the electorate of being a bunch of mung bean eating sandal wearers
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Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
Tory 115, Libdems 114 now... it's looking tight, clearly the country is having a hard time deciding who it hates moreTory 112 and LibDem 110
They are racing along
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
There are a lot of un-knowables in these results - national % of the vote, whether it being a Euro election on the same day has boosted ukip in the locals (almost certainly), what's going on in areas where ukip are hitting Labour etc. However, with all that, they don't look that great for Labour 12 months out from a GE. To perhaps state the obvious, it will be a case of waiting to see what the polls are looking like in a couple of months once Europe has receded as an issue, what ukip's share is then (and who they are hitting the most).
Tory 115, Libdems 114 now... it's looking tight, clearly the country is having a hard time deciding who it hates more
I know
It is really great! F5 F5 F5
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
General elections have a higher turnout - can see the UKIP vote being diluted in a general election - by voters returning to their main party (as they realise they don't actually want the UKIP loons to actually run the country) and by voters who can't be bothered voting in Euros but do turn out for the big one
Bernie Gunther
Fundamentalist Druid
I see. No there doesn't seem to be a big Labour turnout. No surprise there. But everywhere it looks like UKIP are eating into the Tory vote by a larger part...holds up roughly what the polls were saying as well. Maybe UKIP are the new SDP...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
In london and parts of the south maybe - but if you look at the large safe labour seats nationally they are eating into the labour vote more than the tory vote (as the tory vote in this places effectively doesn't exist) in many places - right from the first results from sunderland last night. Not that it will have any electoral effect other than reducing labour constituency majorities. But we were talking about the possibility of labour turnouts swamping UKIP in these seats ( a la barking and the BNP) rather than anything else.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Absolutely on all of that - and UKIP may not even win a single seat in the GE, with the first past the post system. The question will be by how much they drop down and in which kind of seats they retain enough of a presence to affect the result. The Euro elections will probably give ukip a headline figure, a popular vote victory - but the local election distribution of their vote (with all the caveats you mention) will be the most interestng figure.
The thing is it looks so far (I've not been up all night and missed almost the whole election night programme) like Labour are returning in the places in the South and Midlands that they need to - to make progress in 2015 (though maybe not quite as much as they should) and are suffering from UKIP particularly in their Northern bases while also suffering to a lesser extent in the South etc.
Redbridge is important - however I wonder how much is down to rapid recent demographic changes (I don't know, just a guess based on eleswhere in outer London) coupled with a mild Labour bounce?
ETA: I don't think the media are over-egging UKIP at all by the way - it is a continuing radical change in our party system - whether it is permanant is another matter - I suspect if they don't win at least one seat in 2015 they will slide back until the 2019 Euros
Redbridge is important - however I wonder how much is down to rapid recent demographic changes (I don't know, just a guess based on eleswhere in outer London) coupled with a mild Labour bounce?
ETA: I don't think the media are over-egging UKIP at all by the way - it is a continuing radical change in our party system - whether it is permanant is another matter - I suspect if they don't win at least one seat in 2015 they will slide back until the 2019 Euros
SpineyNorman
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Is that one Burngreave mate?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
no, that's Alistair!
SpineyNorman
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Are you getting this online somewhere or have you got someone feeding you info from the count? I've still not been able to find anything out yet.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I don't think we can say, at this stage, whether the UKIP vote is coming from former Labour voters or former Tory voters. The media assume that it's from the working class. UKIP have done very well but despite piss-poor leadership so have Labour. UKIP have not been able to put candidates up for every council seat - in my ward - 3 councillors - they put one candidate up. Labour increased their majority over the Tories. The immediate consequences of the council elections would logically be that the Tories make more rightwing noises about immigration and Europe and Labour make more leftwing noises. Such is the state of the Labour Party leadership that they'll both make rightwing noises.
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
He's done a bit of leafleting on his own but it's not been a target seat - nice surprise - seem to be doing well in areas like that, the was the Arbourthorne by election result as well. Expecting to get squeezed out by the Greens in the student wards though.
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
I'd been trying that but couldn't see anything - only just noticed the wards listed on the sidebar
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