2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results
- Thread starter redsquirrel
- Start date
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Interesting that on one hand there are accusations on the radio phone ins that BBC's handling if UKIP is so biased against them that it reinforces their attraction as being outsiders and on the other,mainly from supporters of mainstream parties, that the BBC have been bigging UKIP up.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
nobody in my office voted.
No PD candidates locally?
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Avonmouth is a Tory held seat? Christ.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
57% tory if you throw in the 'kippers.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Callie
Pivoting
local council website might have that info? croydon does between 32.9% and 46.7%
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
How come the BBC are reporting that UKIP have: "...made great gains at the expense of the Conservatives and Labour" when their numbers show that Labour have actually gained 80 or so seats while the Lib Dems have lost about the same?
They'd already decided that they were running with the UKIP victory angle before any results had come in IIRC. I suppose their excuse will be that in mid-term elections with the tories in power Labour were guaranteed to make big gains, so that's not a story.
tony.c
Well-Known Member
That's probably what the Tories thought too with poorer people having to move out due to benefit capping.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Lower your expectations then divide by two.
ska invita
back on the other side
Thinking exactly the same - Guardian are reporting that too. Still lots of seats to come in, but as it stands now its a great result for Labour whove currently gained 97 seats and the only party to gain control of any councils (+4). Wether it will stay like that remains to be seen...How come the BBC are reporting that UKIP have: "...made great gains at the expense of the Conservatives and Labour" when their numbers show that Labour have actually gained 80 or so seats while the Lib Dems have lost about the same?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Just seen on the guardian site that a sky analysis would give Labour only the biggest number of seats if replicated in a GE. In a rush, I haven't even found the national share of the vote, but I suspect there will a lot to think about in terms of who ukip are hitting most.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
But Labour's gains are from what were a bad set of results last time these seats were up (2010 presumably).
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Yeah I just had a look at the guardian site hoping for an antidote to the BBC coverage. It turns out they've also basically conceded that UKIP are running the country now, with all none of their councils and all none of their MPs
ska invita
back on the other side
This is true, but I expect Labour to win the general election without a need for coalition - despite that bad poll the other day - and this bounce back reinforces that idea in my mind.
Pure speculation, but UKIP are naturally more likely to be taking votes from Cons, and look like theyve done so tonight, and although UKIP do less well at a General Election than at these ones hopefully that trend will continue to cause existential angst for the tories.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ccess-local-elections-two-party-system-crisis
What the suffering fuck Is that supposed to mean?
But it's OK, because he goes on to sum up his article with this completely unambiguous closing paragraph:
Right, well thanks for clearing that up. He got paid to write this drivel, there are people in line for foodbanks as we speak and he got paid money to write this
What the suffering fuck Is that supposed to mean?
But it's OK, because he goes on to sum up his article with this completely unambiguous closing paragraph:
Right, well thanks for clearing that up. He got paid to write this drivel, there are people in line for foodbanks as we speak and he got paid money to write this
ska invita
back on the other side
as a percentage loss it has to be the libdems id have thought
I do look forward to more of this kind of panic:
Tory MPs call for Ukip pact after local election losses
David Cameron under pressure as MPs fear being ousted in 2015 after strong showing for Nigel Farage's party
ska invita
back on the other side
any idea when the final results for local elections are meant to be in by?
i wonder if all the ukip hype has brought out the labour vote more strongly - i get that impression a little from some of my facebook feed, who normally dont engage with politics but were talking about voting against UKIP
i wonder if all the ukip hype has brought out the labour vote more strongly - i get that impression a little from some of my facebook feed, who normally dont engage with politics but were talking about voting against UKIP
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
According to the link posted a few pages back there's one council that doesn't expect to declare until 2 am, and a fair few more that won't be in until late this evening.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I'm old enough to remember everyone saying that the lib dems were set to make huge gains at the last general election. They lost five seats in the end as I recall.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
This isn't a bounce back - it's just about passing muster performance based on informed expectations and a healthy near 4 year poll lead. It's really important to remember that this isn't a race from a standing start and that there's a wider cyclical context, one in which regaining seats you lost whilst in an unpopular govt can (and the current govt losing them) make it appear as if you are on a roll - as if you are 'winning'. There's a bigger picture than who wins most seats on the night - and, despite the generally poor political coverage - the places being moaned about on here actually realise that and are reporting on that basis and understanding.
The popular labour vote is going to be hit hard by UKIP as well, despite council seat wins.
I thought they would take by far the biggest kicking
Tory 103 and LibDem 104 now so the power struggle goes on!!!
ska invita
back on the other side
ah okay, but majority will declare earlier than that...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The exact opposite has been happening. UKIP has been hoovering up labour voters in w/c areas damaging labours popular vote and costing them seats all over.
ska invita
back on the other side
i can believe that, but what im wondering is if those fairweather unswingable-to-ukip labour supporters out there made more of an effort to get to the polls than normal
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