Will you vote for independence?

[ddraig]

http://dailywales.net/2014/08/16/disappointing-welsh-turnout-for-dan-snows-lets-stay-together-rally

Oh dear

 

[phildwyer]

Yep. Weird how sudden a change of opinion between the 16-24s and the 25-34s.

Weird enough to cast suspicion on the entire poll, in fact.

 

[weepiper]

Weird enough to cast suspicion on the entire poll, in fact.

...no.

 

[phildwyer]

...no.

A 20% disparity between 16-24 and 25-34 means something has gone terribly wrong.

 

[Combustible]

A 20% disparity between 16-24 and 25-34 means something has gone terribly wrong.

Or could just be because the individual sub groups are not necessarily representative of the overall population, even if the overall poll is.

2) In most cases, polls are only weighted to be representative at a national level, not for sub-breaks. In other words, when you look at the tables, for the totals you can be sure that they are based on a sample with the right proportions of old and young people, men and women. However, if you look at the column for men on the table, it doesn’t necessarily follow that it contains the right proportion of old and young men – because polls are only weighted at a national level, it could be that all the old people in the sample were women and all the young people men.

That’s an extreme example and it is always the case – MORI’s quotas for age, gender and work status are all interlocked, YouGov’s quotas for age and gender are interlocked – but as a general rule be a bit cautious of sub-breaks.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-weighting

 

[Quartz]

Just a thought, but schools will be back on polling day. Will pupils be given time to go and vote?

 

[DotCommunist]

why, adults don't get time off work to vote, they just keep the booths open till about 9 pm

 

[Celyn]

Just a thought, but schools will be back on polling day. Will pupils be given time to go and vote?

Votings is usually possible from c.07.00 - 22.00, and schools often have polling day off so as to turn themselves into polling booths.

 

[Celyn]

Or perhaps only primary schools have polling day off.

 

[weepiper]

Usually primary schools that they use as polling stations.

 

[danny la rouge]

POI: In Scotland, we vote in "polling places", not "stations" (despite what the recent booklet from the Electoral commission said).

 

[geminisnake]

why, adults don't get time off work to vote, they just keep the booths open till about 9 pm

7am til 10pm. BIL is being a polling person in Aberdeen. Didn't spot Celyn's reply til I posted, duh!

 

[Frankie Jack]

Yvonne Hama speaking at a BT ticket only meeting in Coatbridge. 4 mins in. Aly Pally there too.

 

[DairyQueen]

I can see they've been really poor all the way from bristol - god knows how they've rubbed people up the wrong way inn Scotland. every intervention has been terrible. The best you can say for it is that aprt from two spurts they've not really bothered (agai, as seen from bristol but following pretty closely), relying instead on the vote just not dropping enough. AV YES were worse as they were sticking their nose in everywhere.

Quite literally their campaign is a massive pound coin with Alex Salmond's face on it. That's it. Inspiring stuff.

 

[DairyQueen]

Also - a "no" vote is not a vote for the Better Together campaign, just as a "yes" vote is not a vote for the SNP.

A no vote is a vote for basically Labour, Tories, or the far-right (maybe a few Lib Dems dotted about). If you're honest, there is not really any other participants. Labour have even campaigned with their own logos incidentally, not as better together.

 

[DairyQueen]

.

 

[DairyQueen]

The age grouping/work status table is interesting too.

View attachment 59753

What is interesting is the weight that is applied to the C2DE category.

 

[DairyQueen]

.

 

[weltweit]

There was just an interesting program on BBC R4 about the debate and how many families and friends are split over it. Asking things like will you be friends after the votes have been counted.

 

[teuchter]

A no vote is a vote for basically Labour, Tories, or the far-right (maybe a few Lib Dems dotted about). If you're honest, there is not really any other participants. Labour have even campaigned with their own logos incidentally, not as better together.

Any other participants in what? The BT campaign, or the UK electoral system in perpetuity?

 

[danny la rouge]

There was just an interesting program on BBC R4 about the debate and how many families and friends are split over it. Asking things like will you be friends after the votes have been counted.

I have friends who are voting No. I say "friends"... I mean mortal enemies I will never speak to again. And may kill.

That's not an interesting programme, it's a stupid fucking premise.

 

[weltweit]

I have friends who are voting No. I say "friends"... I mean mortal enemies I will never speak to again. And may kill.

That's not an interesting programme, it's a stupid fucking premise.

Whichever way the result goes, the next day, week, year people will have to get on with each other.

I was in Scotland a few times in the last months and it was interesting how many people didn't really want to talk about their voting intentions seemingly because they didn't want an argument.

 

[teuchter]

Whichever way the result goes, the next day, week, year people will have to get on with each other.

I was in Scotland a few times in the last months and it was interesting how many people didn't really want to talk about their voting intentions seemingly because they didn't want an argument.

I have plenty of friends and family who are more than happy to talk about their voting intentions, because they like a good argument.

As DLR says it's quite a stupid premise for a radio programme.

 

[weepiper]

Whichever way the result goes, the next day, week, year people will have to get on with each other.

I was in Scotland a few times in the last months and it was interesting how many people didn't really want to talk about their voting intentions seemingly because they didn't want an argument.

It's all anyone wants to talk about at the moment. I talk about it every day. People who've decided want to sound out who else is voting the same way. People who're undecided want to talk to people who've made their minds up to see if they can get a good reason to vote one way or the other. I haven't had a single argument about it in real life - lots of discussions. No arguments.

 

[DairyQueen]

I am not saying this as a Yes voter, but I have come across some nasty no voters. Most were middle-class funnily enough. Not sure you can blame it on the referendum, mind you.

 

[DairyQueen]

Any other participants in what? The BT campaign, or the UK electoral system in perpetuity?

Both. Better Together are relying on a very strange group of people to carry them over the line. A fair few old Labour folk that don't really think much about the referendum too much. Apart from that, its basically conservatives and bigots.

 

[weltweit]

Both. Better Together are relying on a very strange group of people to carry them over the line. A fair few old Labour folk that don't really think much about the referendum too much. Apart from that, its basically conservatives and bigots.

Are you saying that as a Yes voter, or not ??

 

[weltweit]

It is a perfectly valid position to support yes or no. There is no right answer on a question like this it is feasible to ethically take either position.

 

[teuchter]

Both. Better Together are relying on a very strange group of people to carry them over the line. A fair few old Labour folk that don't really think much about the referendum too much. Apart from that, its basically conservatives and bigots.

You are talking as if BT campaign members = No voters.

Also, what other than your crystal ball have we got to guarantee that an Independent Scottish parliament, X years down the line, will be less dominated by "consrvatives and bigots" than a UK Westminster parliament?

 

[JTG]

Fwiw, my yes/no housemates show few signs of civil war over the issue