I spend a lot of time not really wanting to talk about it with people who don't know the first thing about it (but seem to think they do) because it's really, really boring.
Will you vote for independence?
- Thread starter ska invita
- Start date
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Probably a bit biased. But Labour's core vote is very shaky, it largely consists of groups of poor people in the West of Scotland who don't really know why they're voting Labour any more.
Well, its where you think such a movement could start. I think it is a bit disingenuous to claim that a party anywhere near as right-wing as the UK conservatives could have a realistic chance at a whiff of power in the next three or four elections in Scotland. Maybe Labour, depending on what form they take.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
It's factually correct, yes
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
No its a valid point.
For the UKIP vote will be interesting to see a breakdown by region. UKIP also have a huge financial backing and the saturation press coverage from London. In 2009, they got 5% (50,000) of the vote, the following Scottish Parliament elections they got 18,000 votes (the combined socialist vote was 31,000 (excluding the Greens and George Galloway) and the senior citizens party were on 33,000). It really depends on the nature of the right-wing in an independent Scotland and where its support would come from.
Its hard to see where they would get activists overnight and a credible candidate (like Nigel Farage) to lead it. Predicting that could happen, like Better Together (and George Galloway) are doing, is not really based in reality.
For the UKIP vote will be interesting to see a breakdown by region. UKIP also have a huge financial backing and the saturation press coverage from London. In 2009, they got 5% (50,000) of the vote, the following Scottish Parliament elections they got 18,000 votes (the combined socialist vote was 31,000 (excluding the Greens and George Galloway) and the senior citizens party were on 33,000). It really depends on the nature of the right-wing in an independent Scotland and where its support would come from.
Its hard to see where they would get activists overnight and a credible candidate (like Nigel Farage) to lead it. Predicting that could happen, like Better Together (and George Galloway) are doing, is not really based in reality.
Last edited:
weltweit
Well-Known Member
One aspect that I don't often hear debated is that a no vote permits the subject to be revisited in I don't know perhaps 20 - 50 whatever time. But as far as I can work out, a yes vote is for good. So anyone feeling cautious, liking the idea of independence but not absolutely sure, a no vote means they will have another crack at it in time.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Depends on how old they are, for one. I'm 49. I'm not being pessimistic in saying I don't have 50 years to spare.
Also there are some real imperatives here. Will there be a welfare state or NHS left to save in 10 years, never mind 20 or 30?
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Neither do I. I'm 37 nearly and my mum died when she was 64. Fuck waiting.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
They got 140,000 votes in March leaving any vote for socialists parties in the dust.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
In the May Euro election, indeed. But there's a lot of caveats that go with that. Foremost, you're comparing a Euro election with Holyrood or Westminster elections. They do a lot better in Euro elections. UK-wide, in the last Euro elections (2009), they polled 16.5%, in the following year's general election they dropped back to 3.1%. In Scotland in 2009 they polled 5.2%, in 2010 Westminster GE they polled 0.7%.
Comparing the 2014 Euro elections, they polled 27.4% UK-wide, and 10.5% in Scotland.
From 2009 - 2010, UK-wide that's a percentage decrease of -81.2%. In Scotland from 2009 - 2010, they showed a percentage decrease of -86.5%. Were they to repeat that in Scotland in the 2016 general election (assuming all other things are equal, which they aren't - the referendum is not a normal event, whatever the outcome) we'd expect them to poll about 1.4% in Westminster elections in Scotland.
Next, remember that the SSP and other left parties didn't stand in the 2014 Euro elections in Scotland. Indeed the only left party that did was No2EU. No2EU only stands in Euro elections, and it isn't well-known here, nor was its purpose well understood. (Anecdotally, I spoke to several people who assumed it was a right wing party).
There are other caveats, but I'm bored now, and you probably are too!
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Yeah UKIP are clearly doing better in England and Wales than Scotland, I was pointing out that there is a base of support for them (as the poll Steepljack posted some weeks ago showed). Scotland's party politics does differ from England and Wales' but I think it would be naive to argue that the voters share many of the same concern's.There are other caveats, but I'm bored now, and you probably are too!
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
there are some interesting things to say about that - about the differences between the Scottish and English political class/civil society for example - but I'm busy this morning, so I'll need to come back to it. But for now, I'd point out that English & Scottish voters both have big majorities wanting energy companies, rail companies, Royal Mail taken back into public ownership (including a majority of Tory voters), and who oppose NHS privatisation, for example. So we need to be nuanced about what we mean by political cultures.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Sorry danny I meant to say "but I think it would be naive to argue that the voters don't share many of the same concern's".
weltweit
Well-Known Member
It isn't what they say that matters weepiper, it is which box on the ballot paper they cross on the day!
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
The Greens are socialist.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Former Labour Health Minister calling for a 'membership fee' for the NHS.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
In what way? This hardly equals socialism, ultimately it's actions not words count but noting that I can see in their manifesto marks them not as Socialist, rather just social democrats.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Radical Independence had a press release today about their mass canvas.
Something else to bear in mind about the 'official' polls: they are usually carried out by the polling company phoning a landline. An awful lot of poor people (and young people) don't have landlines because they cost too much. They just have a PAY-G mobile.
Something else to bear in mind about the 'official' polls: they are usually carried out by the polling company phoning a landline. An awful lot of poor people (and young people) don't have landlines because they cost too much. They just have a PAY-G mobile.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
What does that show? There might be socialists in the SGP (although there's no evidence of the "feminist, socialist, vegan, African immigrant; a public-sector trade unionist(s)" socialism beside some breathless commentary from the author) but that doesn't make them a socialist party. There are still socialists, daft ones, within the Labour Party.
Similar threads
