Will you continue using a face mask after 19 July?

[Elpenor]

At the very least it proves he doesn't know how it works

It’s certainly debatable if it’s ever adjusted in line with daylight saving

 

[existentialist]

Surprised his flies were up and he had his shoes on the right feet.

His flies probably weren't up - you were confused by his having his trousers on back-to-front

 

[elbows]

Don't want to sound like a grumpy cunt about this

Just hard to take when I have seen a lot of the damage first hand, been assaulted and death threats.

Onwards and upwards eh?

Yes lets not drive each other mad going round in circles.

And the fact is that the media are shitty at even bothering to tell the stories they could tell with the data that is available, whatever its flaws.

Here for example are the cases by specimen date for England in the oldest age groups, using 7 day averages to smooth the graph. They are going beyond the levels of the peak seen in mid July. I'd call that newsworthy. I chopped off the last few days of data as its incomplete.

 

[elbows]

And yeah thats a bit off topic but I go whereever the conversation goes. And I would very much use such a graph to say 'whenever, but certainly not fucking now!' when faced with dull questions and unimpressive justifications about 'if not now then when?'.

 

[lazythursday]

I'm not surprised at Badger's assertions - something just doesn't smell right. Cases are high here (around 400 per 100,000) but that's nowhere near as high as it got in the last lockdown, but covid is absolutely everywhere, so many people I know have it right now or in the last couple of weeks, and that is something I haven't experienced in previous waves. And it feels pretty much impossible to escape it now given packed maskless buses etc.

 

[elbows]

The thing I dont understand about that view is that the official data shows really horribly high rates! Obviously I dont know what location you are talking about but I'm happy to zoom in to look at particular places data if required.

Its summer and huge numbers of people have been vaccinated and the official data still shows a picture of a huge number of infections.So what smells fishy exactly? The official data is not painting a rosy picture or one that is incompatible with people experiencing a large number of people they know being infected recently.

Plus we know that any any stage the official testing system does not pretent to capture every case, which is why we have other stuff like REACT studies and ONS estimates using random population sampling. I've been meaning to look back at ONS estimated rates over time and compare this wave to previous waves, and I will report back on that once I've had the time to investigate.

The different forms of data are also pretty consistent with each other, eg cases, hospitalisations and deaths are doing the expected things relative to each other. And all these forms of data are showing the expected sort of impact of vaccination.

When looking at things like case heatmaps by age, we can see that even the official test system is resulting in data which shows very large numbers of infected people, quite comparable to previous wave in a whole bunch of age groups, with the picture only being notably different in the older age groups.

 

[elbows]

Plus authorities can massage figures a bit without being able to get anywhere close to hiding multiple doublings of cases and hospitalisations. Because when things are growing like that numbers get very huge very quickly, and it is not credible to suggest that such a strain on the hospital system, even in the vaccine era, could be completely hidden away by fiddling with the data. People on the sharp end would shout about it because if for example things had simply carried on doubling past the July 14th high level, utter doom would have arrived by now and these services would have fallen over in ways they have not. The picture is still grim as far as I'm concerned but has clearly not reached the sort of extremes that no authority could hope to sweep under the carpet.

Also its not like the official figures fell and then kept falling. Things fell back from a big spike mid July, but have since wobbled around or resumed a degree of growth. Even when I dont take individual numbers as the gospel, various forms of official data have been more than capable of demonstrating trends accurately, when given enough time.

The government have an unconcealed agenda to try to normalise the situation and get more people to behave as if we werent in the middle of a bad wave. Delta limited their ambitions a bit with that, so they also wanted plenty of people to carry on behaving differently. They've still been able to achieve quite a lot on this front without even needing to twist the data in new ways. Mostly they just needed to rely on a lot of people being fatigued with measures, and peoples sense of what summer should mean for disease, and how peoples attitude to risk changed once they were vaccinated, and how people are affected by media coverage (or non-coverage) and the behaviour of others.

Plus the authorities and their advisors were also surprised by what the data showed in July, and they didnt have a nice tidy explanation or an oven-ready use for the picture it showed. And now there will be concerns about what happens next. If I wanted to create a false picture in order to manipulate people, it would not look like the current picture, or what may well follow in the coming weeks. And if I'd manipulated the data then I'd need a good excuse later, some rationale that sounds vaguely plausible otherwise a stink ends up being created within the establishment when the truth belatedly emerges.

 

[Badgers]

One thing that I do note is that the UK government/media is very quiet on the topic of C19 effect on children and also long Covid. It seems to be a big issue/talking point in the US but little here. Some of the doctor's and scientists I follow on social media are sharing a lot of info.

 

[Petcha]

I took the tube with my boy yesterday. I sound like a right grumpy old fuck.

It was Sunday morning, yes - about 10am. But going above and beyond not wearing masks, there was a group of lads who were clearly still going from sat night sharing laughing gas on the train, blasting it all out... i mean. what..

 

[elbows]

I had a quick look at ONS estimates I mentioned and for England in the winter wave they got as high as a figure of 1 in 50 people, and this July they got a figure of 1 in 65. Seems like a reasonable fit to me, bothe relative to other data and to peoples experiences.

 

[zahir]

One thing that I do note is that the UK government/media is very quiet on the topic of C19 effect on children and also long Covid. It seems to be a big issue/talking point in the US but little here.

That's very much my impression as well. That there's panic in the US about the effects on children (at least on twitter anyway) while here it hardly gets a mention.

 

[lazythursday]

I had a quick look at ONS estimates I mentioned and for England in the winter wave they got as high as a figure of 1 in 50 people, and this July they got a figure of 1 in 65. Seems like a reasonable fit to me, bothe relative to other data and to peoples experiences.

You might be right - having looked back the local rates didn't get that much higher in previous waves. Perhaps there is some explanation regarding many of the people I know being more able than others to isolate in prevous waves (whereas now no-one's bothering) - but there sure is a hell of a lot of it about. Hearing new anecdotes almost every day, often of a whole group of friends going down (and most pretty ill too, though would count as 'mild' in NHS criteria)

 

[elbows]

You might be right - having looked back the local rates didn't get that much higher in previous waves. Perhaps there is some explanation regarding many of the people I know being more able than others to isolate in prevous waves (whereas now no-one's bothering) - but there sure is a hell of a lot of it about. Hearing new anecdotes almost every day, often of a whole group of friends going down (and most pretty ill too, though would count as 'mild' in NHS criteria)

If we zoom further into the data we'll probably start to notice that whilst superficially similar rates both times, there will be quite a lot of variation by age group and to an extent by region. Depending on the age of your friends, that subset of the population may well be experiencing higher rates of infection this time than previously. The extent to which this will show up in official daily data depends on attitudes to testing etc so isnt fully clear, but for all its flaws the system is often good enough to pick up on some of this detail, just not to the fullest extent.

 

[elbows]

And a pretty simply version of that zooming in can be done using the official dashboard. If we select England, one of the regions of England, or individual locations in England on the dashboard, then one of the graphs lower down the page will show cases above and below 60 years of age.

Here is that graph for my town for example, where the July peak in the under 60's was higher than the numbers this system managed to detect at the peak last winter. Not that we should assume the test systems ability to detect cases has remained constant over time.

 

[Orang Utan]

Really sorry to hear that.
I really have no answer to that, but as I said earlier, at what stage do we get back to normal, away from jabbings/boosters/masks etc. It seems never ending.

maybe we’ll never go back to what you consider normal. i bet mask wearing will continue for many on public transports, but that’s just common sense to do so now

 

[Maggot]

The Urban vote above at 88.8% cuurently, matches the figures in this article.

Nine in 10 in UK still wearing masks despite end of Covid controls

ONS data suggests some Covid-enforced changes to daily life will remain after pandemic subsides

www.theguardian.com

 

[Elpenor]

Less than 50% in a farm shop yesterday

 

[Mation]

I went to one of my favourite caffs today. I was the only person in the 30-minute queue (and the only person in the whole place) wearing a mask.

It was very well-ventilated - the whole front open to the street from waist height up.

I was quite encouraged that I didn't feel weird wearing one when no one else was, and that no one seemed to bat an eyelid at me. Doubt I'll go there when it gets colder, though, and they close up the front again.

 

[Orang Utan]

I’m still wearing masks at work and in shops and other indoor public places. But I don’t notice who or who is not wearing a mask any more. Am now relaxed enough to do my shopping without distraction

 

[scifisam]

I've still been wearing them. Not been in anywhere where I'm in for long so I can't manage a mask and it's a habit now.

Local - small supermarkets are still about 80% - even Iceland. The staff are still wearing them, so maybe that's it?

On the tube, where we're supposed to wear them, the non-wearers are still always young men or women (usually not as young) with children. I can sort of get the young man thing - they tend to be the ones who fuck everything up - but the mums disappoint me.

 

[mojo pixy]

Science Museum yesterday afternoon; it appeared to me that a least a third of people weren't bothering to wear masks. May have been more, actually, and it bothered me a lot because at the door they were specifically asking all arrivals to please wear a mask to help keep others safe. Entire unmasked families there were, and I just don't believe, with the best will in the world, that all of those people were exempt.

It was fucking shameful, IMO. The Science Museum, of all places.

 

[_Russ_]

Its still the law in shops in Wales yet the proportion not wearing including staff is increasing daily, nobody questions it

 

[lazythursday]

Went out hiking yesterday and stopped for a drink outside a country pub - went inside and it was absolutely heaving, people having Sunday dinners etc, really crowded bar, sweaty, hot, zero ventilation, not a single person wearing a mask except me. Now I get you can't really wear a mask when eating and drinking, and it likely seems pointless putting one on to go to the bar, but the place just felt like a humid viral incubator. With rates as they are (and they are pretty high here) I just don't get why you'd feel comfortable in a place like that. And huge contrast to my local pub, where 90% of people are still drinking outside and masking up to go to the bar.

Or am I being over cautious and should just get on with it, go back to restaurants, go back to the gym and trust in the vaccine?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

My local the other day, no masks. Landlord saying, with some justification, that seeing as masks come off the moment you are seated there’s not really much point.

 

[Badgers]

Over cautious?

The cases are telling a different story

 

[Elpenor]

If I do go to a pub I’d much rather be sitting outside

 

[hitmouse]

Plus authorities can massage figures a bit without being able to get anywhere close to hiding multiple doublings of cases and hospitalisations. Because when things are growing like that numbers get very huge very quickly, and it is not credible to suggest that such a strain on the hospital system, even in the vaccine era, could be completely hidden away by fiddling with the data. People on the sharp end would shout about it because if for example things had simply carried on doubling past the July 14th high level, utter doom would have arrived by now and these services would have fallen over in ways they have not. The picture is still grim as far as I'm concerned but has clearly not reached the sort of extremes that no authority could hope to sweep under the carpet.

Also its not like the official figures fell and then kept falling. Things fell back from a big spike mid July, but have since wobbled around or resumed a degree of growth. Even when I dont take individual numbers as the gospel, various forms of official data have been more than capable of demonstrating trends accurately, when given enough time.

Sorry for making you repeat what I'm sure you will have explained already elsewhere, but what did happen in mid-July to change the trends? Like, I would've expected things to be getting worse then, was it just the football being over or what? Or something to do with schools?

 

[Orang Utan]

Went out hiking yesterday and stopped for a drink outside a country pub - went inside and it was absolutely heaving, people having Sunday dinners etc, really crowded bar, sweaty, hot, zero ventilation, not a single person wearing a mask except me. Now I get you can't really wear a mask when eating and drinking, and it likely seems pointless putting one on to go to the bar, but the place just felt like a humid viral incubator. With rates as they are (and they are pretty high here) I just don't get why you'd feel comfortable in a place like that. And huge contrast to my local pub, where 90% of people are still drinking outside and masking up to go to the bar.

Or am I being over cautious and should just get on with it, go back to restaurants, go back to the gym and trust in the vaccine?

who needs food and drink when you can’t taste owt anyway

 

[elbows]

Sorry for making you repeat what I'm sure you will have explained already elsewhere, but what did happen in mid-July to change the trends? Like, I would've expected things to be getting worse then, was it just the football being over or what? Or something to do with schools?

I dont think anyone has a definitive answer. Just end up with vaguer stuff like some combination of end of euros and weather changes and school term ending and the huge number of people self isolating and people behaving cautiously in response to grim news etc.

And the only reason I was telling people not to be surprised if that early peak happened was because of what happened in Scotland.

In both those nations the school end of term was much closer in timing to the drop in cases than we'd normally expect, not too compatible with the standard view that it would take a bit of time before schools being shut made its mark on infections.

So there isnt really a simple, tidy narrative about what happened. Perhaps what happens next will add something to that picture which makes sense, perhaps not.

Certainly the age groups that made a massive contribution to the overall levels of infection also had the biggest drops at that time, and the picture wasnt so impressive in other demographics. But even without really large drops, cases not continuing to double was quite the achievement in itself. I'll probably ddig into this detail more at some point in future, but I dont know if I will actually have anything really useful to add to the picture.

 

[sojourner]

I hate to admit it, but on the way home from Beautiful Days festival, I gave up wearing a mask in the service stations. Had been horrified on the drive down there to find a max of 5 masked people in rammed service stations, and then again on the way back. It just felt so fucking pointless to be wearing a mask when it really only properly works if everyone does it. Felt worn down by it.