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Who will be the next prime minister (October 2022 edition)

Who will be the next PM of what's left of the UK?

  • Sunak

    Votes: 61 39.6%

  • Mordaunt

    Votes: 44 28.6%

  • Hunt

    Votes: 2 1.3%

  • Badenoch

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Javid

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Zahawi

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Johnson

    Votes: 36 23.4%

  • Mogg

    Votes: 2 1.3%

  • Patel

    Votes: 1 0.6%

  • Obligatory comedy option: Braverman

    Votes: 8 5.2%
  • Total voters
    154
Rob Ray said:
It's not really setting a precedent, the threat has been there as long as I've been alive. I remember hearing what The Markets had to say as being some sort final word on the Beeb when I was a kid.
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Indeed. The famous example is Mitterand coming to power in the early 80s and wanting to set about implementing what you and I would regard as pretty mild social democratic policies, only to face capital flight and having to give in to financial capital and U-turn sharply. Governments don’t have a free hand. It’s nothing new. Liz Truss thought she could turn the UK into a northern Singapore, but if international finance doesn’t want that, she can’t do it.

It wasn’t the terminal incompetence or awkwardness in interviews that did for her. It was trying to do something financial capital didn’t want her to do. Even though they’re happy with Singapore doing it.
 
contadino said:
Aside from being loathed by his detractors, I think a large part of Johnson's election success in 2019 was down to Cummings. His political nouse since Cummings departure was pretty poor.
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He had brexit, plus he was up against Corbyn, but surely he’s a busted flush now?
 
danny la rouge said:
Indeed. The famous example is Mitterand coming to power in the early 80s and wanting to set about implementing what you and I would regard as pretty mild social democratic policies, only to face capital flight and having to give in to financial capital and U-turn sharply. Governments don’t have a free hand. It’s nothing new. Liz Truss thought she could turn the UK into a northern Singapore, but if international finance doesn’t want that, she can’t do it.

It wasn’t the terminal incompetence or awkwardness in interviews that did for her. It was trying to do something financial capital didn’t want her to do. Even though they’re happy with Singapore doing it.
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They’ve already got a perfectly serviceable Singapore, they don’t need another one. They want a UKPLC off the northern coast of Europe.
 
bimble said:
I’m feeling more confident now: Johnson won’t win this, he won’t reach 100. I am willing to bet one pot of Tesco finest soup only slightly out of date.
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I'll see your pot of soup and raise you two Fray Bentos, tinned seak pies, that not only will he get 100 backers, he'll be the next PM.
 
platinumsage said:
He has 100, apparently:

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Sources close to Johnson would say that though wouldn’t they.


If you were a Tory MP who wanted sunak to win this but didn’t want your constituents to know your preference you’d just sit around til Monday hoping the numbers stay a bit like this job done. Maybe the numbers won’t change much at all.
 
Spymaster said:
Given that it's one of the most likely scenarios being touted at the moment, I think that's wise!
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Ah, I hadnt seen it mentioned on this forum very much.

I dont feel capable of judging what is most likely at the moment, but the possibility at least seems like one of the tidiest moves possible in terms of making the contest swift and not too divisive for the tories, and delivering a result that is compatible with the emergency establishment 'stop rocking the boat or the markets will eat us alive' mindset.
 
sleaterkinney said:
He had brexit, plus he was up against Corbyn, but surely he’s a busted flush now?
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I wasn't referring to just the election campaign. There were a couple of examples post-Cummings when he had discussed using slurs (Jimmy Saville, etc..) before PMQs, had agreed to not use them, but just couldn't help himself to hold off when it came to it. Obviously there was the string of bad appointments he made, botched votes in the house, etc.. He's a jibbering figurehead in need of a puppetmaster rather than a skilled politician.
 
Bingoman said:
How would he govern if only 100 mps let say back him he cant surely
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It won't be only 100 MP's though, will it.

Sunak's already got over 100, so if BJ get's 100+ too it forces the membership vote. The winner then has a mandate from the whole party rather than just the parliamentary party.
 
Spymaster said:
It won't be only 100 MP's though, will it.

Sunak's already got over 100, so if BJ get's 100+ too it forces the membership vote. The winner then has a mandate from the whole party rather than just the parliamentary party.
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What I mean if wins the contest and on let's say 100 MPs and the membersship have backed him how can he Govern if other MPs dont want serve with him, it would be impossible
 
Bingoman said:
What I mean if wins the contest and on let's say 100 MPs and the membersship have backed him how can he Govern if other MPs dont want serve with him, it would be impossible
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Well you can say that of any of them can't you?

Both Sunak and Johnson will have had over 100 of their own MPs vote against them.
 
Strictly, only Johnson has had his own MPs really vote against him. It was the vote of confidence, and a lot of them stated that they lacked it.
 
kabbes said:
Strictly, only Johnson has had his own MPs really vote against him. It was the vote of confidence, and a lot of them stated that they lacked it.
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Pah.

Didn't vote for/voted against is totally splitting hairs in this case given there's no way of knowing the MP's intentions unless they tell us. Some will most definitely be voting against candidates though.
 
Spymaster said:
Pah.

Didn't vote for/voted against is totally splitting hairs in this case given there's no way of knowing the MP's intentions unless they tell us. Some will most definitely be voting against candidates though.
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It’s not really splitting hairs. If you have a choice of two, you state your preference but that doesn’t mean you dislike the other one. On the other hand, 148 Tory MPs specifically voted that they disliked Johnson enough that they didn’t want him as their leader any more. That’s pretty serious.
 
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