Who will be the next prime minister (October 2022 edition)

[SpookyFrank]

you go back to salivating over pan-national neoliberal enforcers telling your government what to do then

I mean 'the markets' just took down the British government in less than a month but yeah OK.

 

[Karl Masks]

This can’t be happening.

My thought exactly. But it's the tory so it is and will

 

[bluescreen]

Auntie casts doubt on the integrity of the Tory online voting

Tory leadership: How secure is the online vote?

There are concerns about security if the Tory leadership is decided by an online ballot of party members.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[killer b]

I mean 'the markets' just took down the British government in less than a month but yeah OK.

They did, and while I'm enjoying the fallout I don't like the precedent it sets. The same markets (and ratings agencies etc) and their instructions will provide the straitjacket that the next Labour government will slide themselves happily into as they administer gruelling austerity for their single term of government too.

 

[Karl Masks]

I don't see Starmer being effective against slick Rishi. But then he wasn't effective against Boris, who lied constantly and openly in Parliament

 

[bimble]

No chance of this happening at all. They can chage the rules but not halfway through a contest and would instantly alienate two thirds of the membership and a third of the parliamentary party.

Idk. Everyone’s alienated already. But I already owe you a tenner not going to pretend I’m confident.

 

[Spymaster]

BORIS BOUNCES BACK, here's where his plane is right now as he travels back to Britain for what could be the most stunning political comeback ever: might get a lot of clicks.

My money’s on Boris comparing himself to Napoleon returning from exile on Elba, soon after he lands.

Hopefully his comeback will be equally short-lived.

 

[maomao]

Idk. Everyone’s alienated already. But I already owe you a tenner not going to pretend I’m confident.

You never know, Melania could get a divorce in the next nine days.

 

[Yossarian]

My money’s on Boris comparing himself to Napoleon returning from exile on Elba, soon after he lands.

Hopefully his comeback will be equally short-lived.

I think he probably spent a half-hour or so on the flight Googling ancient Greek or Roman political exiles so he could make a more obscure comparison.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I don't see Starmer being effective against slick Rishi. But then he wasn't effective against Boris, who lied constantly and openly in Parliament

He's not slick. He's quite wooden and beige. He's also a billionaire whose wife is a nom dom. He is not going to win over the public
What will decide the election is that fact that the economy is in the toilet, Millions are fearful for their futures and the government a. Helped bring this about b. Are an utter shambles busily tearing themselves apart.
Labour are going to win massively. Even with starmer.

 

[andysays]

I don’t know tbh. The ones who make up the rules as they go along, like the rule about 100 nominations by teatime on Monday.
Must be a lot of MPs who don’t want the members to choose again & will do their best to end up with only one contender by Monday.

The rules of this contest have been set by Brady and the rest of the 1922 committee, to suit the particular circumstances of this contest and to avoid what they now realise were the ways in which the rules of the previous contest enabled such a disastrous result.

They want the process to be quick and relatively low on acrimony, and to find a leader who a much larger proportion of the parliamentary party have voted for than voted for Truss, which will (hopefully for them) make the new leader's position stronger.

So in that sense they've made up the rules to suit the situation, but as maomao has said, they can't change the rules once the process has already started.

 

[killer b]

The rules of this contest have been set by Brady and the rest of the 1922 committee, to suit the particular circumstances of this contest and to avoid what they now realise were the ways in which the rules of the previous contest enabled such a disastrous result.

They keep changing the rules, and each time there's a disastrous result. Maybe the rules aren't the problem.

 

[Karl Masks]

All I hear throughout this period of madness is Peter Mandelson, at the Labour conference, where he said, on his third return to the party, that "if I can come back, we can come back"

seems apposite for our times: if Boris can come back (if)...

 

[furluxor]

My money is on Rishi and hopefully along with all the misery we'll get some situation comedy where he tries to do normal everyday things and fails miserably. So Russian soldiers don't know what a dishwasher is? Does Richie Sunak?

I'm tired and unenthusiastic tbh. So many years of this crap.

 

[andysays]

They keep changing the rules, and each time there's a disastrous result. Maybe the rules aren't the problem.

I'm trying to explore why the rules are as they are now, I'm not suggesting that the result will be better for the rest of us, or even necessarily for them.

Maybe I should have said try to avoid.

I hope things blow up for the next leader, whoever that turns out to be, just as much or more than they have for the last however many it's been.

 

[kabbes]

Once perhaps, but I think it is much more now a shaper of those people's opinions than it is shaped by them. Look at how often the opinions that people claim are theirs (on Johnson, or especially on Corbyn when he was Labour leader) are just regurgitations of what the Mail (or that other rag) have been saying. On Corbyn especially it was astonishingly rare to hear a genuinely independent criticism of him, usually you could ask one or two questions about why someone thought the way they did and they'd realise that they couldn't remember the rest of the article that they'd read it in.

I think it’s a mistake to divide public discourse into “shaper” and “shaped”. Both newspaper and readers are co-responsible. It’s all happening at once within the same interaction and in the context of a society with a lot else going on at the same time.

 

[LDC]

Dunno why people are so bothered about Johnson coming back. He'll be divisive which is better for us. Of course problematic, but they all are. And the alternative is some slicker and more stable person that'll be better for the Tory party. If it's because it shows the whole thing up for the fucked up farce that it is, then is that news?

Bring on Johnson I say, the 'speed us towards collapse' candidate!

 

[Spymaster]

Dunno why people are so bothered about Johnson coming back. He'll be divisive which is better for us. Of course problematic, but they all are. And the alternative is some slicker and more stable person that'll be better for the Tory party. If it's because it shows the whole thing up for the fucked up farce that it is, then is that news?

Bring on Johnson I say, the 'speed us towards collapse' candidate!

Yep. The only people who should be bothered about a BJ return are the Tories.

 

[contadino]

Yep. The only people who should be bothered about a BJ return are the Tories.

Well, Tories plus employees of Channel 4.

..and the BBC...

...and immigrants...

...and those with mortgages or rent to pay...

...etc..

Whereas if Johnson or Sunak get the job, it's just those who need welfare support, union representation, a health service, police, etc...

 

[bimble]

What an embarrassing country.


(daily mail)

 

[agricola]

He's not slick. He's quite wooden and beige. He's also a billionaire whose wife is a nom dom. He is not going to win over the public
What will decide the election is that fact that the economy is in the toilet, Millions are fearful for their futures and the government a. Helped bring this about b. Are an utter shambles busily tearing themselves apart.
Labour are going to win massively. Even with starmer.

I agree he isn't slick, and that the economy is going to be the deciding factor in any election - but if he does win the leadership there is always the possibility that he could turn the economy around (and there is a much greater likelyhood of this than there is if Johnson wins). A more sensible application of cuts (one that falls on PFI and outsourcing where there is ample scope for reductions, rather than core services where there absolutely isn't) and an end to the war in Ukraine and you could have millions of people who've looked into the abyss for months, didn't fall in and credit him for their escape.

Plus this massive Labour lead is fairly clearly down to the rancidness of the Tories over the past six months, its not down to anything Starmer or the rest have done.

 

[Spymaster]

Well, Tories plus employees of Channel 4.

..and the BBC...

...and immigrants...

...and those with mortgages or rent to pay...

...etc..

Whereas if Johnson or Sunak get the job, it's just those who need welfare support, union representation, a health service, police, etc...

Nah. It won't make any difference to any of those whoever gets the job.

 

[strung out]

Well, Tories plus employees of Channel 4.

..and the BBC...

...and immigrants...

...and those with mortgages or rent to pay...

...etc..

Whereas if Johnson or Sunak get the job, it's just those who need welfare support, union representation, a health service, police, etc...

Those are all under threat regardless of which tosser they end up electing.

 

[contadino]

Aside from being loathed by his detractors, I think a large part of Johnson's election success in 2019 was down to Cummings. His political nouse since Cummings departure was pretty poor.

 

[agricola]

Aside from being loathed by his detractors, I think a large part of Johnson's election success in 2019 was down to Cummings. His political nouse since Cummings departure was pretty poor.

that, and the fact he got every advantage its possible to give a British politician in an election

I mean even the Archbishop of Canterbury suggested indirectly that people should vote for him rather than the other main candidate

 

[Rob Ray]

I'm enjoying the fallout I don't like the precedent it sets. The same markets (and ratings agencies etc) and their instructions will provide the straitjacket that the next Labour government will slide themselves happily into

It's not really setting a precedent, the threat has been there as long as I've been alive. I remember hearing what The Markets had to say as being some sort final word on the Beeb when I was a kid.

 

[steveseagull]

Ooh, it's coming back to me now. That submariner's dolphin badge she wore aroused a fair bit of criticism from submariners who'd actually earned it.

(Plus she's got a dodgy brother. She's absolutely not responsible for his behaviour but I wouldn't put it past some of the other candidates' supporters to bring that up.)

So she's not a certainty.

Yeah that dodgy brother was convicted recently for noncing. It flew under my radar until I saw it on twitter

MP's brother sent indecent images to 'teen girl' and called himself 'sexy'

The brother of Leader of the Commons MP Penny Mordaunt has been in court for attempting to engage a child in sexual communication

www.leeds-live.co.uk

 

[steveo87]

Plus the realisation you are "hoping" for a Sunak Govt

Real life is shit, init.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I agree he isn't slick, and that the economy is going to be the deciding factor in any election - but if he does win the leadership there is always the possibility that he could turn the economy around (and there is a much greater likelyhood of this than there is if Johnson wins). A more sensible application of cuts (one that falls on PFI and outsourcing where there is ample scope for reductions, rather than core services where there absolutely isn't) and an end to the war in Ukraine and you could have millions of people who've looked into the abyss for months, didn't fall in and credit him for their escape.

Plus this massive Labour lead is fairly clearly down to the rancidness of the Tories over the past six months, its not down to anything Starmer or the rest have done.

Crashing the economy and their chaotic governance will be the deciding factor - voters wont forgive them that. Post "Black wedsnesday" in 1992 the tories never recovered - despite the economy doing reasonably well. The damage this time is worse as the level of incompetence and chaos is greater - and there is no chance of any meaningful turnaround in the economy in the next two years - people will still be paying higher prices, higher mortgages loans and rent for less wages and have higher bills. Most of the time most people dont pay much attention to politics - if they are doing ok in terms of their material conditions (especially retired people) many will happily vote johnsons or brexit as it fits in with their world view and the politics dont seem to affect them directly.
This time pretty much everyone is affected by the tory fuck up - hence them polling under 20%.
Sunak is their least worse option in that he is most likely to "calm the markets" - but they are still going to have a hell of a fight with themselves and large parts of the country over wages and austerity mark two - plus the headbangers (possibly led by johnson) creating all sorts of shit over brexit, wokeness, immigration etc etc and pushing for tax cuts . Their best hope is to get their vote to around the mid 30s and prevent an existential wipe out.
And its not just the truss fuck up - its there overall record since 2010 - chaos, poverty, economic meltdown and nearly everyone worse off.
Starmer and labour - boring, dull, technocratic, uninspiring - looks decidedly more competent and less chaotic than the tories - and that is all they need. Yes - a bolder more radical vision would totally capture the public imagination and its a massive opportunity to actually do something meaningful- but they wont take it cos they dont have to.

 

[Bingoman]

Just listened to an interview with Dominic Rabb and said Johnson should not be PM because of the baggage he Carries and he said theres the committee investigating him too he said?

So I take it if Johnson wins Rabb wont be in a Johnson cabinet then?