Vaccination impact

[Supine]

A good news thread. Post up evidence of vaccines working

From here:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2102153

Strong impact:

 

[elbows]

From the weekly surveillance report: https://assets.publishing.service.g...973174/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w12.pdf

 

[elbows]

The way some people talk about vaccines make me suspect that some are expecting way higher percentages of protection than those demonstrated by early studies like this one, but I set my initial expectations lower and so this is still good news that demonstrates a useful effect:

A single dose of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine was effective at stopping 62% of coronavirus infections in care homes, a study has found.

A team at University College London (UCL) looked at data from 10,000 adults in England with an average age of 86.

The research also suggested those who did catch the virus after vaccination may be less infectious.

"Our data suggests that both vaccines are effective in frail, older adults," said UCL's Dr Maddie Shrotri.

Covid jab: One dose in care homes gives 'substantial' protection

A study suggests 62% of residents are protected by a single dose of the vaccines used in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Supine]

 

[Supine]

Great news if this kind of result proves correct for all vaccines in the real world

 

[gentlegreen]

How do they define "infection" ?
Is this because shortly after vaccination the immune system is poised ready to go so doesn't need to see viral proteins expressed on cell membranes by helper molecules and start to actually sacrifice cells ?

 

[elbows]

A couple of studies covered by this piece:

Coronavirus: Pfizer jab 'stopping 91% of cases in first six months'

And another study shows even 96-year-olds are producing an impressive immune response.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Latest weeks version of charts from the weekly surveillance report, older versions of which I had already posted to this thread.




From https://assets.publishing.service.g...834/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w13_v2.pdf

 

[elbows]

Oh and some extra analysis/detail on some of whats shown, beyond the obvious:

Roche N seropositivity has started to plateau in recent weeks across most age groups but this was seen earliest in the 70-84 age group. Seropositivity in those aged 70-84 decreased from 6.1% (95% CI 4.1% - 9.0%) in weeks 4-7 to 4.7% (95% CI 3.1% - 7.1%) in weeks 8-11 2021. The earlier plateauing of Roche N seropositivity in the older age groups likely reflects the additional role vaccination is having in reducing viral infection ahead of reduction seen from national restrictions alone in younger age groups.

Vaccination is likely to be making an important contribution to the overall Roche S increases observed since the roll out of the vaccination programme, particularly in older age groups who were the first groups prioritised for vaccination. Rises in Roche S above Roche N seropositivity in younger age groups suggest that health and social care workers are likely to be over-represented among donors. The absence of a recent increase of seropositivity, using the Roche N assay, in the oldest age group is likely to reflect vaccine impact.

(with Roche N only detecting post-infection antibodies and Roche S detecting both post-infection antibodies and vaccine-induced antibodies)

 

[Supine]

 

[elbows]

Single Pfizer or AstraZeneca dose produces strong antibody response

Scientists say AstraZeneca vaccine has greater effect when it comes to cellular response

www.theguardian.com

A single dose of either the Oxford/AstraZeneca or the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine generates a big protective antibody response against the coronavirus in people 80 and over, researchers have found.

The first study to look at the comparative performance of the two vaccines that have been in use in the UK in recent months shows that 93% of people develop antibodies against the coronavirus spike protein by five to six weeks after a single Pfizer jab, and 87% after a single AstraZeneca one.

But the researchers from the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium, which includes scientists from 20 different centres, found a difference when it came to the cellular response elicited by the vaccines. That is the generation of T-cells that help fight the virus.

The AstraZeneca vaccine had a greater effect – with 31% of people developing T-cells against the spike protein compared with 12% of those who had the Pfizer jab. People who had the AstraZeneca shot also had a stronger cellular response.

Eight people who had already had Covid-19 had a very strong immune response after a dose of vaccine – a nearly 700-fold increase in antibodies and four-fold in T-cells. “Previous natural infection really enhances the immune responses to the vaccine but all patients should still receive the two vaccines,” said Parry.

Antibody responses are important against infection and reinfection, said Moss, “but the cellular response is more subtle”. T-cells might protect against severity of disease, but they may also be less susceptible than antibodies to loss of immunity from variants.

“I think people are confident that variants will only lose 10% to 20% of the cellular response, whereas they can lose a lot more of the antibody response. It’s about how the immune system works,” he said.

One possibility for the future is that vaccines could be “mixed and matched”, so that people could have one jab that elicits a stronger cellular response and one that produces a higher antibody count. A trial looking at combining these two vaccines in this way has just been extended to include the Moderna and Novavax jabs as well.

 

[Supine]

Amazing

 

[magneze]

Nice, I assume the First Dose & Second Dose lines are % population?

 

[Supine]

Just wow. From some FT charts:

 

[elbows]

Good to see that chart. It was doing my head in that some media had certain angles on Chile and vaccination that they wanted to go on about but seemed quite disinterested in exploring any of that vital detail.

 

[elbows]

One Covid vaccine cuts infection rate in all age groups

Real-world data found the AZ and Pfizer jabs worked equally well in over-75s and younger people.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Still early days for this sort of study and we might expect understanding of these effects to change further over time, hopefully in an even more impressive direction:

Covid: One dose of vaccine halves transmission - study

People who get coronavirus after their first jab are up to 49% less likely to pass it on, research suggests.

www.bbc.co.uk

I havent had a chance to compare the numbers they've come up with to the assumptions various university studies had to use, the modelling results from which SAGE then used to form a view on the impact of lifting of current restrictions, prospects for a third wave.

 

[2hats]

Still early days for this sort of study and we might expect understanding of these effects to change further over time, hopefully in an even more impressive direction:

Covid: One dose of vaccine halves transmission - study

People who get coronavirus after their first jab are up to 49% less likely to pass it on, research suggests.

www.bbc.co.uk

I havent had a chance to compare the numbers they've come up with to the assumptions various university studies had to use, the modelling results from which SAGE then used to form a view on the impact of lifting of current restrictions, prospects for a third wave.

Poor reporting of a study with obvious flaws in the design and analysis; no treatment of seropositives.

 

[elbows]

Poor reporting of a study with obvious flaws in the design and analysis; no treatment of seropositives.

I'm glad you are back, I've got no time to do the science thinking properly at the moment and I was worried about where/why you had gone.