Ukraine

[Casually Red]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/29/russia-ukraine-war-asking


Seems that much of the public and especially the Russian soldiers families are not aware of the fatalities amongst the soldiers involved in the incursion or even they are there, until they come home in body bags, back to the future then..

seems to be a severe whiff of dodge about ths particular ngo making the claims . Theyve got form

According to Agora, Kostroma Deputy Prosecutor Alexander Smirnov said the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers receives funding from the United States.


Prosecutors said the committee's reporting of alleged violations during the State Duma elections in December 2011 and the presidential elections in March 2012 was political activity.


Soldiers' Mothers Committee Chair Irina Reznikova said the organization did not engage in politics during the elections, but its members reported violations as civic-minded private individuals.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130417/180688291/Soldiers-Mothers-Group-Declared-Foreign-Agent.html

 

[Casually Red]

Poland as usual: http://rt.com/news/183736-defense-minister-plane-russia/

"Poland closes airspace to Russian defense minister's plane, demands 'non-military' flight status"

Russians promising a response

http://rt.com/news/183800-russia-poland-airspace-reprisal/

 

[gimesumtruf]

I can't find in the media, info that people from other European countries are fighting with the east Ukraine soldiers.
As I am an old school, low tech (don't even have a cell phone) person, can I appeal to people on urban who sympathise with the people from other European countries helping, to have you put any info about them on twitter, facebook ect.

 

[Casually Red]

• bit of a jaw dropping moment here on Ukrainian tv . The junta had been claiming their troops had seized back a town taken by the DPR in their offensive . Then one of their troops rang into a tv phone in show pleading for help and completely rubbishing the junta line . Sounds like theyre in pretty desperate straits cut off and largely abandoned. Also that the advance took them completely by surprise.

and this unit who managed to escape the cauldron found that the officer who got them out is now being persued by state prosecutors. They make clear that their casualties are massively under reported..on a scale of ten to one. And that the offensive took them completely by surprise. Their forces..or whats left of them..appear to be severely demoralized and without a clue as to whats actually going on much less what to do about it.

 

[seventh bullet]

Already posted that pages ago but you've got me on ignore. It's from earlier this month, not last week's fighting. They mention Russians too, don't they? Like the ones currently on holiday. BTW, when are you heading out there to join the third positionist volunteers?

 

[ViolentPanda]

Already posted that pages ago but you've got me on ignore. It's from earlier this month, not last week's fighting. They mention Russians too, don't they? Like the ones currently on holiday. BTW, when are you heading out there to join the third positionist volunteers?

Ain't gonna happen.

 

[agricola]

theres simply no way theyre going to permit a NATO force to be straddling their entire border . Not a chance ...theyll act regardless of western sanctions or isolation . Because the consequences of full NATO encirclement will be a lot worse .
Some time back Putin spoke of the USA beng the only nation on earth to have committed nuclear terrorism..twice . And for the most cynical reason..to prevent a japanese surrender to the Russians .He said Russia has never forgotten this chilling fact and knows this is the apocalyptic mindset they are up against . Theyll regard NATO encirclement as an existential threat and would be very stupid not to .

It is an understanding of history like that which leads to policy making decisions of the quality we have seen from Putin in the lead up to and during this crisis. Even if he manages to keep those parts of Eastern Ukraine that they are invading, he is still going to wake up one morning and find the borders of Europe (and NATO) are several hundred miles closer to Moscow than they used to be.

 

[Casually Red]

I can't find in the media, info that people from other European countries are fighting with the east Ukraine soldiers.
As I am an old school, low tech (don't even have a cell phone) person, can I appeal to people on urban who sympathise with the people from other European countries helping, to have you put any info about them on twitter, facebook ect.

m not on Facebook or twwtter ether

posted stuff about some Spanish communists the other week but heres some reports on various other leftists and anti fascists fighting in the international brigade.

Heres some from Italy pictured alongsde Gubarov

http://fuckyeahmarxismleninism.tumb...el-gubarev-reports-volunteers-from-italy-will

and a report concerning the German contingent..the Ernst Thalmann battalion..apparently led by a former member of east german special forces. believe their contingent is sizable enough and consists of former soviet military and younger anti fascists . This is them at a parade in Berlins Treptower back in May

and n Alexanderplatz

https://www.prod.facebook.com/vivekanand.tripathi.7/posts/690427747684439

 

[gimesumtruf]

Thanks Casually Red that is good of you, I do remember now seeing those Spanish volunteer's but it slipped mind a bit (a bit of a tendency when my gander's up).
What I also failed to mention, was that because Cameron wants to stop the British going to Syria, whether he'd want to stop any British going to east Ukraine.

 

[Casually Red]

It is an understanding of history like that which leads to policy making decisions of the quality we have seen from Putin in the lead up to and during this crisis.

well if its Putins faulty understanding of history to blame then im sure the United States would have no real difficulty with a few Iskanders stationed in Cuba . Hs understanding of recent history was a United States that promised NATO had no intention of spreading eastwards..but is now the belligerent enemy at the gates. And that western assurances of non aggression count for fuck all.

in the lead up to this crisis Putins policy was to repeatedly call for dialogue and negotiations ..tripartite talks aimed at finding a peaceful solution all sides could live with . He was rebuffed by the west. Who adopted a policy of handing out cookies to neo nazi rioters while supporting a coup . They then handpicked a junta who within weeks had thoroughly alienated the eastern population to the point of wanting to secede. Quality decision that turned out to be .

Even if he manages to keep those parts of Eastern Ukraine that they are invading, he is still going to wake up one morning and find the borders of Europe (and NATO) are several hundred miles closer to Moscow than they used to be.

No doubt..and im equally sure he will have a response to that . Europe could wake up one morning and find the Russians prefer to sell their gas to China . And if things carry on in this confrontational manner Europe might not wake up at all one morning . Because this expansionism is fucking madness that will end very badly .
The west are trying to humiliate Putin and Russia here . Lets say they succeed. He then loses face and is replaced by someone else. He would only conceivably be replaced in such circumstances by someone who takes power on the basis Putin was too soft

How do you see that one ending..Einstein ?

 

[agricola]

well if its Putins faulty understanding of history to blame then im sure the United States would have no real difficulty with a few Iskanders stationed in Cuba . Hs understanding of recent history was a United States that promised NATO had no intention of spreading eastwards..but is now the belligerent enemy at the gates. And that western assurances of non aggression count for fuc all.

NATO probably didnt have any intention of spreading east of Poland - they made very little attempt to do so between 1991 and now (when for most of the time it would have been much easier to do so) - but the utter failure of Russian policy with regards to Ukraine specifically and the EU generally has made it more and more likely that they will end up being a member. If Putin was thinking clearly he would have kept Crimea and left it at that, the rest of NATO would never have let Ukraine in with an outstanding territorial dispute of that magnitude but his antics are such that they will probably let them in just to spite him now.

No doubt..and im equally sure he will have a response to that . Europe could wake up one morning and find the Russians prefer to sell their gas to China . And if things carry on in this confrontational manner Europe might not wake up at all one morning . Because this expansionism is fucking madness that will end very badly .
The west are trying to humiliate Putin and Russia here . Lets say they succeed. He then loses face and is replaced by someone else. He would only conceivably be replaced in such circumstances by someone who takes power on the basis Putin was too soft

How do you see that one ending..Einstein ?

The only person humiliating Putin is Putin. He has made grievous errors at every stage of this process and shows no sign of stopping the trend of daftness anytime soon. As you say, that does make this a very dangerous situation - but then for the West to abandon Ukraine in order to try and bring sanity to him would be at least as dangerous a course of action.

As for selling their gas to someone else, that is the only card he can play economically and it would do at least as much damage to the Russians as it would to the EU. For that reason he will probably do it this winter.

 

[seventh bullet]

m not on Facebook or twwtter ether

posted stuff about some Spanish communists the other week but heres some reports on various other leftists and anti fascists fighting in the international brigade.

Heres some from Italy pictured alongsde Gubarov

http://fuckyeahmarxismleninism.tumb...el-gubarev-reports-volunteers-from-italy-will

and a report concerning the German contingent..the Ernst Thalmann battalion..apparently led by a former member of east german special forces. believe their contingent is sizable enough and consists of former soviet military and younger anti fascists . This is them at a parade in Berlins Treptower back in May

and n Alexanderplatz

https://www.prod.facebook.com/vivekanand.tripathi.7/posts/690427747684439

Has Pavel Gubarev renounced his Nazism? Also, the Italians are members of an organisation called Millenium who appear to be fascists linked to Alexander Dugin. Not socialist or communist at all.

Millennium stands as a Communitarian Party, protecting the interests of the Peoples of Europe, of the Italian national community and the ethno-cultural communities within.

From here, a site promoting Dugin's politics. The original here. Some info here from Anton Shekhovstov.

You are revealing yourself to be a dodgy fucker, Casually Google.

 

[Casually Red]

Thanks Casually Red that is good of you, I do remember now seeing those Spanish volunteer's but it slipped mind a bit (a bit of a tendency when my gander's up).
What I also failed to mention, was that because Cameron wants to stop the British going to Syria, whether he'd want to stop any British going to east Ukraine.

well the British government sought to prevent antifascist volunteers from gong to spain so one would assume theyd do it in this case too

this belated response to Fascism in Ukraine seems to be coming from some sections of the British left at least..better late than never . Sincerely doubt it would ever lead to physical assistance though .

 

[Casually Red]

NATO probably didnt have any intention of spreading east of Poland - they made very little attempt to do so between 1991 and now (when for most of the time it would have been much easier to do so) - but the utter failure of Russian policy with regards to Ukraine specifically and the EU generally has made it more and more likely that they will end up being a member. If Putin was thinking clearly he would have kept Crimea and left it at that, the rest of NATO would never have let Ukraine in with an outstanding territorial dispute of that magnitude but his antics are such that they will probably let them in just to spite him now.



The only person humiliating Putin is Putin. He has made grievous errors at every stage of this process and shows no sign of stopping the trend of daftness anytime soon. As you say, that does make this a very dangerous situation - but then for the West to abandon Ukraine in order to try and bring sanity to him would be at least as dangerous a course of action.

As for selling their gas to someone else, that is the only card he can play economically and it would do at least as much damage to the Russians as it would to the EU. For that reason he will probably do it this winter.

quite an amazing theory...NATO expansionism...the coup...the juntas policies and make up...the massive alienation from Kiev that followed it...all Putins fault .
This is not an argument worthy of any serious consideration .

 

[agricola]

quite an amazing theory...NATO expansionism...the coup...the juntas policies and make up...the massive alienation from Kiev that followed it...all Putins fault .
This is not an argument worthy of any serious consideration .

So the argument is probably correct, then?

 

[DairyQueen]

NATO probably didnt have any intention of spreading east of Poland - they made very little attempt to do so between 1991 and now (when for most of the time it would have been much easier to do so) - but the utter failure of Russian policy with regards to Ukraine specifically and the EU generally has made it more and more likely that they will end up being a member. If Putin was thinking clearly he would have kept Crimea and left it at that, the rest of NATO would never have let Ukraine in with an outstanding territorial dispute of that magnitude but his antics are such that they will probably let them in just to spite him now.

The only person humiliating Putin is Putin. He has made grievous errors at every stage of this process and shows no sign of stopping the trend of daftness anytime soon. As you say, that does make this a very dangerous situation - but then for the West to abandon Ukraine in order to try and bring sanity to him would be at least as dangerous a course of action.

As for selling their gas to someone else, that is the only card he can play economically and it would do at least as much damage to the Russians as it would to the EU. For that reason he will probably do it this winter.

I think assuming Russia have made miscalculations after Crimea is probably optimistic (from a western point of view). Russia have had clear, limited objectives. I still think the main problem was the nature of the Ukrainian unity government and the way in which effectively prohibited the party which represents the eastern oblasts from taking part in politics.

I think it is the Ukrainian government that has miscalculated everything; the strength of feeling in some of its eastern provinces, how far Russia would go to protect its interests, and overestimated the strength of its economy and armed forces.

The Russian government is not stupid and this is not a western election (this is not an election between Mad Vlad Putin and Poroshenko/Obama/Merkel). For a start, Russians don't watch our news and don't need our commentary on events that affect them. It really comes to down to whether Russians are willing to accept higher prices for certain commodities in ensuring that as many of its interests are maintained in Ukraine as possible. I think the west have completely underestimated the value of Ukraine to Russian interests and were stupid in marginalizing their interests there so militantly.

 

[agricola]

I think assuming Russia have made miscalculations after Crimea is probably optimistic (from a western point of view). Russia have had clear, limited objectives. I still think the main problem was the nature of the Ukrainian unity government and the way in which effectively prohibited the party which represents the eastern oblasts from taking part in politics.

I think it is the Ukrainian government that has miscalculated everything; the strength of feeling in some of its eastern provinces, how far Russia would go to protect its interests, and overestimated the strength of its economy and armed forces.

The Russian government is not stupid and this is not a western election (this is not an election between Mad Vlad Putin and Poroshenko/Obama/Merkel). For a start, Russians don't watch our news and don't need our commentary on events that affect them. It really comes to down to whether Russians are willing to accept higher prices for certain commodities in ensuring that as many of its interests are maintained in Ukraine as possible. I think the west have completely underestimated the value of Ukraine to Russian interests and were stupid in marginalizing their interests there so militantly.

It is somewhat questionable the amount of faith that you are willing to place in the decision-making of the Putin government.

For a start, he is now in a position where he is as close as possible to being at war with Ukraine, is quite close to doing significant harm to his own economy, and is responsible for shooting down an airliner. Secondly, unless he is intending to occupy all of Ukraine, he is going to end up with whatever is left being a member of NATO. It is hard to see how they represent "clear, limited objectives", especially given their likely impact on Russia itself.

As for "it is the Ukrainian government that has miscalculated everything", it is a bit odd for you to criticize them for taking decisions not in Russia's interests; they are after all a soveriegn nation who got into this mess in the first place precisely because a previous administration did take Russian interest into account when framing policy. That they didnt take account of opinion in the eastern parts of the country is perhaps a salient point, though of course for any fair assessment to be made of what the population of that area actually thinks the area would have to be cleared of the tens of thousands of heavily armed package tourists that currently roam about the place.

 

[Casually Red]

I think assuming Russia have made miscalculations after Crimea is probably optimistic (from a western point of view). Russia have had clear, limited objectives. I still think the main problem was the nature of the Ukrainian unity government and the way in which effectively prohibited the party which represents the eastern oblasts from taking part in politics.

I think it is the Ukrainian government that has miscalculated everything; the strength of feeling in some of its eastern provinces, how far Russia would go to protect its interests, and overestimated the strength of its economy and armed forces.

The Russian government is not stupid and this is not a western election (this is not an election between Mad Vlad Putin and Poroshenko/Obama/Merkel). For a start, Russians don't watch our news and don't need our commentary on events that affect them. It really comes to down to whether Russians are willing to accept higher prices for certain commodities in ensuring that as many of its interests are maintained in Ukraine as possible. I think the west have completely underestimated the value of Ukraine to Russian interests and were stupid in marginalizing their interests there so militantly.

its not just Russian interests being marginalized but those of millions in Ukraine . Western arrogance simply cant countenance the fact people actually do consciously have a dfferent social cultural political economic and global outlook thats different from theirs. And with that different interests. And that the west are assisting..if not directing..the junta in fighting and suppressing its own people. Because they stand in the way of western interests smply by persuing their own. Rather than admit that the idiotic refrain is to blame Putin for the falures of western meddling and aggression..

repeated polls have also shown theres little support in Ukraine for actually joining NATO . And much of this project was attempted before under that idiot Yuschenko who himself came to power atop one of these colour coup freakshows . That ended in calamity and he ended up with a 5 percent poll rating . So now they try it again and yet again it goes tits up on them .

This entire narrative is being framed on western arrogance. That western outlooks and interests and those of the Ukrainian people are one and the same. With Russian interests being generally malignant . Despite the fact one section of population looks west..another east..and another both ways from time to time. Plainly what was needed was compromise . Russia continually proposed that but the western powers opted for confrontation and brinkmanship instead and left no room at all for compromise. its that very failure to take a series of legitimate interests into account and instead focus on outright victory that has led directly to this crisis . Which could well spiral further into some very dangerous orbits. Simple commonsense could have avoided all of this . instead what we get is this simplistic self righteous jingoistic bollocks like that above .

 

[seventh bullet]

No comment on your own support for fascists?

 

[seventh bullet]

Further on the subject of Casually's 'anti-fascist' volunteers to the DNR, here are the French Eurasianists mentioned a few pages back being interviewed in Donetsk.



More information on them and their politics is found here (again Shekhovtsov).

 

[coley]

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said Russia was "practically in a war against Europe".

She said: "We need to support Ukraine, and send military materials to help Ukraine defend itself. Today Ukraine is fighting a war on behalf of all Europe."

Warming up nicely

 

[coley]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-of-east-Ukraine-is-a-point-of-no-return.html
Again! ThisIs getting scarily close to a 37 days scenario.

“Today we are talking about the fate of Ukraine, but tomorrow it could be the fate of security and stability of all of Europe,” he said.

 

[DairyQueen]

It is somewhat questionable the amount of faith that you are willing to place in the decision-making of the Putin government.

For a start, he is now in a position where he is as close as possible to being at war with Ukraine, is quite close to doing significant harm to his own economy, and is responsible for shooting down an airliner. Secondly, unless he is intending to occupy all of Ukraine, he is going to end up with whatever is left being a member of NATO. It is hard to see how they represent "clear, limited objectives", especially given their likely impact on Russia itself.

As for "it is the Ukrainian government that has miscalculated everything", it is a bit odd for you to criticize them for taking decisions not in Russia's interests; they are after all a soveriegn nation who got into this mess in the first place precisely because a previous administration did take Russian interest into account when framing policy. That they didnt take account of opinion in the eastern parts of the country is perhaps a salient point, though of course for any fair assessment to be made of what the population of that area actually thinks the area would have to be cleared of the tens of thousands of heavily armed package tourists that currently roam about the place.

Well, if it is not heavily armed tourists, it will be heavily armed Ukrainian shock troops. Russia is not Iran, and this idea we can just skelp them across the hands, and wave our finger at the government is totally bullshit. As I said, the whole Putin thing won't work. It is a tactic to reduce what Russia is doing to empire building. The revolution was a clear signal that Ukraine will join the EU and probably NATO. That is why Russia took Crimea. It is far more likely that America has fallen into this trap of blindly empire building. Ukraine at all costs? Whatever is left of Ukraine will be poor, undemocratic, unstable and perhaps in NATO (but I really doubt many of the wealthy NATO countries would want that).

The point about Ukraine not taking into account Russian interests is that Ukraine borders Russia. That is a geographic fact. For Ukraine to have a stable, peaceful existence it needs to get on with its neighbours. if they did the same thing about Romanians, Poles or Belorussian, a similar course of events could well have taken place. It was not the Russians that started singing about killing Ukrainians, and appointing the very same people into the cabinet. Fair enough, the whole fascist line is a bit silly, but the Ukrainian government made a whole load of mistakes from start to finish. No government can act how the please without some sort of repercussions. Previous Ukrainian presidents, including Kuchma and even Yanukovich/Tymoshenko, knew he had to play the west and east against each other to get what they wanted for Ukraine.

 

[rekil]

Further on the subject of Casually's 'anti-fascist' volunteers to the DNR, here are the French Eurasianists mentioned a few pages back being interviewed in Donetsk.



More information on them and their politics is found here (again Shekhovtsov).

Victor-Alfonso Lenta (b. 1989?, hipster tash) is coming from Toulouse. He is a former corporal of the 3rd Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment, and served in Afghanistan, Chad, Ivory Coast and Gabon. He is said to have been kicked out from the army for his involvement in a neo-Nazi group. On his return to Toulouse, he actively participated in the Jeunesses identitaires.

- We're anti-imperialists!
- Any military experience?
- Yeah, Afghanistan, Chad, Ivory Coast, Gabon...

 

[agricola]

The point about Ukraine not taking into account Russian interests is that Ukraine borders Russia. That is a geographic fact. For Ukraine to have a stable, peaceful existence it needs to get on with its neighbours. if they did the same thing about Romanians, Poles or Belorussian, a similar course of events could well have taken place. It was not the Russians that started singing about killing Ukrainians, and appointing the very same people into the cabinet. Fair enough, the whole fascist line is a bit silly, but the Ukrainian government made a whole load of mistakes from start to finish. No government can act how the please without some sort of repercussions. Previous Ukrainian presidents, including Kuchma and even Yanukovich/Tymoshenko, knew he had to play the west and east against each other to get what they wanted for Ukraine.

I think you are confusing "get on with" with "blindly follow the wishes of". Yes, the Ukrainian government have made a whole load of mistakes - but so has Putin, and his have usually been more serious and more self defeating; to take your last point as an example that option (of steering a middle path between Russia and the West) is not one that is going to be available to Ukrainian governments anytime soon because of what Putin has been doing. He could have, at many points, sat back and let economic reality and the chaotic nature of Ukrainian politics do a much more effective job than his tourism has done.

 

[Idris2002]

- We're anti-imperialists!
- Any military experience?
- Yeah, Afghanistan, Chad, Ivory Coast, Gabon...

You have to laugh. Innit.

 

[Casually Red]

I think you are confusing "get on with" with "blindly follow the wishes of". Yes, the Ukrainian government have made a whole load of mistakes - but so has Putin, and his have usually been more serious and more self defeating; to take your last point as an example that option (of steering a middle path between Russia and the West) is not one that is going to be available to Ukrainian governments anytime soon because of what Putin has been doing. He could have, at many points, sat back and let economic reality and the chaotic nature of Ukrainian politics do a much more effective job than his tourism has done.

amazing stuff

do you have any footage of this Russian army in east Ukraine..just offhand like. im sure NATO would be grateful to receive it. id certainly be interested in seeing it.

And Putin defeated too..self defeated..astounding .
Can you maybe explain this defeat for me . im not exactly seeing it. Last i checked he had approval ratings of almost 90 percent.

 

[DairyQueen]

I think you are confusing "get on with" with "blindly follow the wishes of". Yes, the Ukrainian government have made a whole load of mistakes - but so has Putin, and his have usually been more serious and more self defeating; to take your last point as an example that option (of steering a middle path between Russia and the West) is not one that is going to be available to Ukrainian governments anytime soon because of what Putin has been doing. He could have, at many points, sat back and let economic reality and the chaotic nature of Ukrainian politics do a much more effective job than his tourism has done.

Oh, I completely agree that a point has now been reached where it would be very difficult now to get back to some kind of middle ground position. However, I still think that to let Ukraine do what it wished in the east to deal with protesters (who were doing simply what Ukrainian radicals were doing in the west) would not have been in Russia's best interests. I still think you are making a mistake here in thinking Russia is a one man dictatorship. Putin will be representing a lot of interests, he will have consolidated a lot of power but there will still be a myriad of interests that Putin must take into account. To put another way, I am far from convinced the situation would have been any better had someone else been president of Russia.

 

[Casually Red]

yer man actually seems to be equating BBC and Guardian approval with defeat . Mindboggling .

 

[agricola]

amazing stuff

do you have any footage of this Russian army in east Ukraine..just offhand like. im sure NATO would be grateful to receive it. id certainly be interested in seeing it.

And Putin defeated too..self defeated..astounding .
Can you maybe explain this defeat for me . im not exactly seeing it. Last i checked he had approval ratings of almost 90 percent.

Wasnt his aim to stop Ukraine moving closer to the EU / NATO? How is that going, again?