Ukraine

[SpineyNorman]

Now I'm confused. Can you explain what you meant then with this post:

Maybe some kind of irony has gone over my head but it reads to me like like your trying to project the idea that theres actually nothing to worry about anymore because one of these fascist involved government misnisters is having an internal power struggle and appears to be losing control of his department. Or was you just being provocative to spark an arguement on the merits of what makes a fascist a fascist?

Not at all. I had been arguing with sunny jim over whether the Kiev government represents the state in western ukraine turning fascist (a claim he made with CR like confidence). Just because I said it wasn't fascist doesn't mean I don't think there is anything to worry about (there is and I do). If I didn't think there was anything to worry about, or if I thought the Kiev government was really ok I would have said so. Do I need to end every post with a qualification that says I don't like the Kiev regime? Aren't my previous posts on this thread (which you can easily view via search function) sufficient?

Also, would you (and classicdish) consider Parubiy as a fascist?

That's an interesting question and the kind of thing I think we should be discussing (shame lovedetective hasn't been able to post more on this thread cos he really knows his stuff when it comes to this). There's two ways of looking at it I suppose. I guess we could have an abstract academic discussion over whether he fits the various competing definitions of fascism. But I think he's close enough for me not to object to people calling him one (Svoboda have stayed a lot closer to their fascist roots than, say, the BNP and the stuff in the guardian about them having 'reformed' is well OTT - something I've explicitly said on this thread. So I think a better way to look at it is to interrogate the views and policies of the party, not really to see if they fit the definition of fascism but to work out what they are and what they represent if that makes sense.

But in case anyone is uncertain, I think the Kiev government are a bunch of cunts - neoliberals and far right cunts - as are those who have backed them via the EU, US foreign office and NATO. What I do take issue with is the uncritical way in which the other 'side' is viewed. For example, butchers just posted an uncropped version photo cr posted of that march. Beside the antifascist banner was a monarchist banner - a far right banner. It's not good guys vs bad guys. We need to get beyond these binaries and work out what's really going off. After a serious look at what both sides represent people may choose still to take sides - but at least they'd be doing it from an informed position. I might decide (though I think it unlikely) that the pro-Russian side is worthy of support. But I'm definitely not going to do that while I don't know the facts and there are aspects of the pro-Russian side that are deeply worrying. The uncritical reposting of RT propaganda really doesn't help with that - it's people talking with an air of authority, as if they've taken an objective view, when really they're regurgitating what they saw on the Putin's propaganda mouthpiece.

 

[pocketscience]

Not at all. I had been arguing with sunny jim over whether the Kiev government represents the state in western ukraine turning fascist (a claim he made with CR like confidence). Just because I said it wasn't fascist doesn't mean I don't think there is anything to worry about (there is and I do). If I didn't think there was anything to worry about, or if I thought the Kiev government was really ok I would have said so. Do I need to end every post with a qualification that says I don't like the Kiev regime? Aren't my previous posts on this thread (which you can easily view via search function) sufficient?



That's an interesting question and the kind of thing I think we should be discussing (shame lovedetective hasn't been able to post more on this thread cos he really knows his stuff when it comes to this). There's two ways of looking at it I suppose. I guess we could have an abstract academic discussion over whether he fits the various competing definitions of fascism. But I think he's close enough for me not to object to people calling him one (Svoboda have stayed a lot closer to their fascist roots than, say, the BNP and the stuff in the guardian about them having 'reformed' is well OTT - something I've explicitly said on this thread. So I think a better way to look at it is to interrogate the views and policies of the party, not really to see if they fit the definition of fascism but to work out what they are and what they represent if that makes sense.

But in case anyone is uncertain, I think the Kiev government are a bunch of cunts - neoliberals and far right cunts - as are those who have backed them via the EU, US foreign office and NATO. What I do take issue with is the uncritical way in which the other 'side' is viewed. For example, butchers just posted an uncropped version photo cr posted of that march. Beside the antifascist banner was a monarchist banner - a far right banner. It's not good guys vs bad guys. We need to get beyond these binaries and work out what's really going off. After a serious look at what both sides represent people may choose still to take sides - but at least they'd be doing it from an informed position. I might decide (though I think it unlikely) that the pro-Russian side is worthy of support. But I'm definitely not going to do that while I don't know the facts and there are aspects of the pro-Russian side that are deeply worrying. The uncritical reposting of RT propaganda really doesn't help with that - it's people talking with an air of authority, as if they've taken an objective view, when really they're regurgitating what they saw on the Putin's propaganda mouthpiece.

Thanks for the detailed reply. Bouncing our new born to sleep here. Will reply to some of the points either later tonight. More likely in the morning.

 

[DairyQueen]

But in case anyone is uncertain, I think the Kiev government are a bunch of cunts - neoliberals and far right cunts - as are those who have backed them via the EU, US foreign office and NATO. What I do take issue with is the uncritical way in which the other 'side' is viewed. For example, butchers just posted an uncropped version photo cr posted of that march. Beside the antifascist banner was a monarchist banner - a far right banner. It's not good guys vs bad guys. We need to get beyond these binaries and work out what's really going off. After a serious look at what both sides represent people may choose still to take sides - but at least they'd be doing it from an informed position. I might decide (though I think it unlikely) that the pro-Russian side is worthy of support. But I'm definitely not going to do that while I don't know the facts and there are aspects of the pro-Russian side that are deeply worrying. The uncritical reposting of RT propaganda really doesn't help with that - it's people talking with an air of authority, as if they've taken an objective view, when really they're regurgitating what they saw on the Putin's propaganda mouthpiece.

The problem is that we simply do not know what groups are mainstream on the pro-Russian side. We don't know whether the far right flags (they were not many of them) you are speaking about represent any serious component of the pro-Russian protest movement. The link that butchers put up is worth a read, the protest those pictures come from was relatively small (maybe not for Odessa mind) and had a lot of different flags (including anti-fascist).

This really pisses me off... I have read no article articulating a 'monarchist' position even though I heard this banded about. Are there genuinely groups in Ukraine calling for Prince Karl Emich to be instated as the King of Russia? See this.

For the pro-Western side, we have a fair idea of the influence of some far-right groups. Furthermore, they are representing the state so all power structures are pretty formal. The opposition look like a fragmented group of various factions.

 

[Voynich]

youve plainly missed this crew forming militias

Not much need to talk in terms of militia now. The National Guard established in march immediately absorbed several hundred of the Maidan Self-Defense unit (edit. -members). They can now trade in hockey armour and cobblestones, (and where applicable, tridents and white-mallets) - 15 days of training later - for fatigues, an AK47, and a red beret. The intention was for 60,000 of them.


It is interesting that unlike internal troops, the National Guard can be deployed without the delays of parliamentary approval (mentioned here, but Rus.). Any sensible pro-government street fighter would simply sign up, and find themselves overnight armed properly and untouchable under the Geneva agreement terms on illegal armed groups.

Avakov, for the ministry of internal affairs in April, announced the creation of special national guard (Rus.) units based on "patriot" volunteers, specifically for formation in the East, for the purposes of suppressing the "formation of bands" and separatism (that is, counterrevolutionary activity). In Lugansk and Dniepropetrovsk in particular.
"Practically every region will gain the power to form these stabilising special units" - Avakov


The aim was to arm and otherwise equip another 12,000 men. Again, the deputy minister Velikovich referred to the membership of Maidan Self-Defense units as a source of new eastern guardists.


Although, since president (ex-security services boss and nutty Baptist preacher) Turchinov himself has now said that
"Frankly, the military structure isn't able to take control of the situation in the Donetsk and Lugasnk regions"
is looks as though the volunteers will be replaced by conscripts (link Eng.) instead.

Can't mention the National Guard without suggesting they could have been at least a bit more careful with the patch design...

If that monarchist flag reference earlier was to the 'Kolorado,' Saint George orange and black - it isn't.


Anyway, the first $3 billion tranche of IMF money is expected to arrive from 2 - 8 May. $2 billion will go towards the budget deficit, the other one to the national bank. That's nowhere near the state debt to Gazprom alone. Or the $3 billion the Chinese state is suing Ukraine for over unfulfilled grain deals.
The eastern referendums will probably come in a flurry this month, but shit - no degree of federalisation is going to save Ukrainians from the IMF.

 

[DairyQueen]

The whole way the Ukrainian military is developing is frightening. Conscription was announced today, it just looks like the whole military is being built from scratch.

Some of the economic stuff is crazy. Have you seen this?

Startlingly, the notes are governed by U.K. law and subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of British courts. And most crucially, there is an odd clause in the bonds that has a direct impact on European and American taxpayers, as CNBC learned through a review of the bond agreement:
Paragraph 3 (b) under Covenants:
(b) Debt Ratio So long as the Notes remain outstanding the Issuer shall ensure that the volume of the total state debt and state guaranteed debt should not at any time exceed an amount equal to 60 percent of the annual nominal gross domestic product of Ukraine.

The implications of that clause are that the minute the West or the International Monetary Fund extends a large loan to Ukraine, that country will almost certainly have a debt-to-GDP that exceeds 60 percent, immediately putting the Russian loan into default. That gives Russia the right to demand immediate repayment. And because the bonds are governed by British courts — which, presumably, neither Ukraine nor Russia can manipulate — it would be extremely difficult for Ukraine to avoid making the payment, using its new bailout money.

 

[Voynich]

That UK law connection, what is it? Looks totally arbitrary. That may have been where I saw a reference to the 'Chinese aspect' in the situation. Though that one seems to have gone quiet.

On a different tangent, here's some fucking masterful public de-escalation:

NATO to consider Georgia’s offer to host defensive systems

TBILISI, May 01. /ITAR-TASS/. NATO will consider Georgia’s offer to host defensive systems, the alliance’s special envoy for the South Caucasus and Central Asia James Appathurai said.
The offer was made by Georgian Defense Minister Irakly Alasania at an international conference entitled “Europe Whole and Free” organized by the Atlantic Council in Washington on Thursday, May 1. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen who attended the conference said he would familiarize his colleagues with the offer.

 

[DairyQueen]

When Yanokovich was in power and Russia gave Ukraine a loan, there was a stipulation that meant Ukraine would default on the loan if they exceeded a debt-GDP ratio. The IMF loan would take it over the threshold. The trick is that the bonds that were issued are governed by British courts, meaning there is not really any legal way for Ukraine to get out of paying Russia $3billion (exactly the same amount as the first IMF tranche).

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/3-billion-ukraine-aid-would-go-russia-n52056

The country and legal system where a bond is governed is of increasing interest to fixed-income investors and lenders around the world, a lesson learned during the Greek debt crisis. When a bond is issued under a country's local laws, the country's leadership can change the laws anytime. New laws can even be imposed retroactively. That's precisely what happened to the holders of Greek-law bonds during the debt crisis there. In the end, holders of Greek debt took a massive financial hit.
However, holders of the few Greek bonds that were governed under British law were and still are being paid back in full. They've made very healthy profits.

In other words, if Britain start manipulating the courts, they stand to lose a great deal of prestige (which would not be ideal for a country whose economy is heavily dependent on financial intermediaries.

 

[Voynich]

One more thing to leave here for future reference (if it hasn't been already), given the elections are supposed to be held this month. Although it almost seems a bit dated now after the attention has moved further east. A bit of horror-comic relief.

Now for A Party Political Broadcast from everybody's favourite presidential candidate, Dmitro Yarosh!


I can't find the English subtitled version anymore, so here's 'the words'. Everybody now...

Spoiler: The Great Ukrainian Resurgence (for which R.S. fights)

"The Great Ukrainian Resurgence (for which R.S. fights)"
We, the soldiers and commanders of Right Sector ...
- in memory of the heroic struggle of Svyatoslav the Brave, Daniil of Galicia, Bohdan Khmelnytsky and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army,
- embodying the right of the people to rise up against injustice,
- in recognition of our responsibilities before the dead and maimed heroes of the Maidan,
...enter the fray!
For the right of every Ukrainian to dignity. For a fair trial of the Berkut, and other dogs of the system of occupation. Against the humiliation and impoverishment of the Ukrainian people. Against the Authorities' war against their own people.
For responsibility amongst voters, and responsibility amongst politians. For an elected Judiciary. Against mercantile, marginal democracy {other party leaders}. Against degeneration, and Totalitarian Liberalism {falling Lenin statue}. For traditional, popular morals and family values {smiling straight couples and children}. Physical and spiritual health and vigour for the many children of the Ukrainian family {street fighters}. Against the cult of greed and depravity {performers on stage}. Against integrations on terms not dictated by Ukraine {EU signing}. For the unity and global greatness of the Ukrainian Nation. For a Great Ukrainian, a Great European resurgence {white power flags}.
This is just the beginning. The beginning of the rebirth of Kievan Rus. The beginning of the rebirth of Europe. It begins with our Maidan!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[Casually Red]

theres the Prosecutors office in Donetsk away now, a crowd accusing them of being fascists stormed it . Cops put up a bit of resistance but later handed over their gear and were escorted out through a corridor of shame.

http://rt.com/news/156160-gas-rally-donetsk-ukraine/

 

[Casually Red]

t

new recruits being trained to goose step

bastards

 

[newbie]

so their new government has delivered an immediate 56% increase in gas prices, pension and public sector wage freeze, increased VAT and tax increases on booze and fags. And now conscription as well.

mayoral and presidential election in 3 weeks time will be interesting.

 

[Brechin Sprout]

...
new recruits being trained to goose step

bastards

Goose stepping was alWaYS integral to Moscow's Mayday parades. Have they changed?

 

[Idris2002]

t

new recruits being trained to goose step

bastards

And that's what it's all about.

 

[yield]

Ukraine attacks rebel city, helicopter shot down
Reuters. Fri May 2, 2014

The SBU security service said one military Mi-24 helicopter gunship had been shot down, killing one airman while a second had been taken prisoner by the rebels.

It said a second Mi-24, which normally would have a crew of two, was flying in tandem and had to make a forced landing. A third helicopter, carrying medics, was hit and a medic wounded.

Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, the self-declared mayor of the town, was quoted by Russia's Interfax news agency as saying two helicopters had been shot down and one pilot had been detained.

The SBU said one helicopter was hit by shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles - evidence, it said, that "trained, highly qualified foreign military specialists" were operating in the area "and not local civilians, as the Russian government says, armed only with guns taken from hunting stores".

Oh no

Goose stepping was alWaYS integral to Moscow's Mayday parades. Have they changed?

Russia stages first Red Square May Day parade since Soviet days.
Reuters. Thu May 1, 2014

Russia staged a huge May Day parade on Moscow's Red Square for the first time since the Soviet era on Thursday, with workers holding banners proclaiming support for President Vladimir Putin after the seizure of territory from neighboring Ukraine.

Thousands of trade unionists marched with Russian flags and flags of Putin's ruling United Russia party onto the giant square beneath the Kremlin walls, past the red granite mausoleum of Soviet state founder Vladimir Lenin.

 

[Rimbaud]

Ukraine attacks rebel city, helicopter shot down
Reuters. Fri May 2, 2014

Can we start calling this a civil war now?

 

[SpineyNorman]

When Yanokovich was in power and Russia gave Ukraine a loan, there was a stipulation that meant Ukraine would default on the loan if they exceeded a debt-GDP ratio. The IMF loan would take it over the threshold. The trick is that the bonds that were issued are governed by British courts, meaning there is not really any legal way for Ukraine to get out of paying Russia $3billion (exactly the same amount as the first IMF tranche).

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/3-billion-ukraine-aid-would-go-russia-n52056



In other words, if Britain start manipulating the courts, they stand to lose a great deal of prestige (which would not be ideal for a country whose economy is heavily dependent on financial intermediaries.

Why have they done it like that though? That's what I don't get - why would the IMF, the Kiev government and maybe the EU/US (in other words all the groups and people involved in drafting this up etc) want to take such measures to guarantee the repayment of Russian loans? Some kind of concession to Vlad maybe? Doesn't make any sense to me, maybe I'm missing something?

 

[likesfish]

Nato and georgia the offer will be read and then binned.
Goose stepping is eastern european drill think its historical from prussians Russians do it as well only in the west its fallen out of fashion after the germans attempted to introduce it european wide
Shoulder lauched surface to air missiles manpads are not idiot proof they either have defectors ex soldiers or "volunteers" from russia Hey all sides can be stupid

 

[SpineyNorman]

Can we start calling this a civil war now?

Guess it depends what definition you're using. I've been doing some research into the relationship between violent conflict and capitalist development lately (and found the definitions so weak, imprecise, contested and impractical that I avoided using the concept altogether and replaced it with Cramer's spectrum of violence) so I know the world bank define it as a conflict in which an identifiable rebel organisation challenges the government militarily, resulting in violence that produces at least 1,000 combat related deaths, with at least 5% on each side (in other words if all the deaths are on the rebel side it won't count).

Under that definition it wouldn't qualify - there's not really a single identifiable rebel org and I seriously doubt there's been 1,000 combat deaths (yet )

 

[DownwardDog]

Goose stepping was alWaYS integral to Moscow's Mayday parades. Have they changed?

All the commie/WarPac armies did it as far as I can remember. East Germans possibly excused.

 

[Idris2002]

East Germans possibly excused.

You'd think, wouldn't you?

Spoiler

 

[camouflage]

Nato and georgia the offer will be read and then binned.
Goose stepping is eastern european drill think its historical from prussians Russians do it as well only in the west its fallen out of fashion after the germans attempted to introduce it european wide
Shoulder lauched surface to air missiles manpads are not idiot proof they either have defectors ex soldiers or "volunteers" from russia Hey all sides can be stupid

 

[camouflage]

Guess it depends what definition you're using. I've been doing some research into the relationship between violent conflict and capitalist development lately (and found the definitions so weak, imprecise, contested and impractical that I avoided using the concept altogether and replaced it with Cramer's spectrum of violence) so I know the world bank define it as a conflict in which an identifiable rebel organisation challenges the government militarily, resulting in violence that produces at least 1,000 combat related deaths, with at least 5% on each side (in other words if all the deaths are on the rebel side it won't count).

Under that definition it wouldn't qualify - there's not really a single identifiable rebel org and I seriously doubt there's been 1,000 combat deaths (yet )

I continue to hope it won't actually become a full civil war and in years to come will merely be looked back on as The Troubles like in Ireland, or The State of Emergency like in Poland sort of thing. The Aggro maybe. And then it all settles down again. Who are the idiots in Ukraine looking for this to become a civil war anyway, no-rereat no surrender no negotiation rah rah rah. Did they have a look at what's gone on in Syria and think "Ah, this civil-war lark bodes well... let's power on shall we".

Maybe the idea is that with no jihadis to spoil the fun, a quick jolly civil war can be had then they all meet down the pub for drinks after. Let's hope the world-wide pool of fascists isn't large enough to really sustain this thing. Without fascists I find it hard to believe any Ukrainian in their right mind, east or west facing- would have the stomach to really let this thing get proper Homs-ified.

 

[treelover]

Newbie said
so their new government has delivered an immediate 56% increase in gas prices, pension and public sector wage freeze, increased VAT and tax increases on booze and fags. And now conscription as well.

FFS, how can the ordinary Ukrainian cope with that, surely the non rightists Maidanites will be on the streets again..

 

[butchersapron]

FFS, how can the ordinary Ukrainian cope with that, surely the non rightists Maidanites will be on the streets again..

They've not got off the streets. People just forgot - and were helped to forget - to keep an eye on what was going on outside of the east.

 

[treelover]

I continue to hope it won't actually become a full civil war and in years to come will merely be looked back on as The Troubles like in Ireland, or The State of Emergency like in Poland sort of thing. The Aggro maybe. And then it all settles down again. Who are the idiots in Ukraine looking for this to become a civil war anyway, no-rereat no surrender no negotiation rah rah rah. Did they have a look at what's gone on in Syria and think "Ah, this civil-war lark bodes well... let's power on shall we".

Maybe the idea is that with no jihadis to spoil the fun, a quick jolly civil war can be had then they all meet down the pub for drinks after. Let's hope the world-wide pool of fascists isn't large enough to really sustain this thing. Without fascists I find it hard to believe any Ukrainian in their right mind, east or west facing- would have the stomach to really let this thing get proper Homs-ified.

Any more evidence that the global fascist international are moving to join Ukraine?

 

[camouflage]

FFS, how can the ordinary Ukrainian cope with that, surely the non rightists Maidanites will be on the streets again..

The big puzzle is that considering even the Ukranian fascist say they are anti-EU/NATO... what do they thinks going on that they line up as street fighters for the IMF. Temporary alliance of convenience?

 

[camouflage]

Any more evidence that the global fascist international are moving to join Ukraine?

I've no evidence to that effect. Try hanging out on Stormcunt if you can take the stink, see if there's many posters asking the Ukrainian for 'Hello, which way to our glorious crusade?'

 

[butchersapron]

Or to moscow.

 

[camouflage]

Or to moscow.

I know there are fash on both sides of the er... debate, they are basically the sock full of snookerballs in this thing (a weapon for brawling). I get the strong impression that antiRussian Ukranian fash are a lot more involved in driving things though. Whereas the Russian fash are just in it because they heard that theres a fight going on, if that makes sense.

 

[Idris2002]

Or to moscow.

The only interesting thing about that article is the details of links between the far-right and the Kremlin, it fails as far as I can see, to demonstrate that there is more to it than the far-right is pleading with Vlad for him to use them as his useful idiots.

As for this:

Today, the far right (and the far left) seem to be the most convenient partners for Putin.

Why does he throw in 'far left' there, and in other places in his paper?