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Ukip - why are they gaining support?

both are possible of course - by elections plague on all your houses stuff. Still, I'd be lasering in on Carswell's voting record (bedroom tax, NHS etc) and that he shows the public school Thatcherite underbelly to Farage's "man of the people" shtick.
Won't matter though. Labour voters already know all that, and they either switched to him last time (huge swing to him) when it was a proper marginal or voted against. That's not going to add any votes to the labour total. And if past performances in by elections and the most recent local and euro elections in similar seats are anything to go by then UKIP will be eating into the labour vote.
 
both are possible of course - by elections plague on all your houses stuff. Still, I'd be lasering in on Carswell's voting record (bedroom tax, NHS etc) and that he shows the public school Thatcherite underbelly to Farage's "man of the people" shtick.
yeh. and when you'd thought about the matter for more than a microsecond?
 
Won't matter though. Labour voters already know all that, and they either switched to him last time (huge swing to him) when it was a proper marginal or voted against. That's not going to add any votes to the labour total. And if past performances in by elections and the most recent local and euro elections in similar seats are anything to go by then UKIP will be eating into the labour vote.

I would say it's effectively become almost a three-way marginal. If Labour is significantly behind Miliband will be very edgy indeed
 
I would say it's effectively become almost a three-way marginal. If Labour is significantly behind Miliband will be very edgy indeed
You think so? This is from the local council area that Clacton is in, from the may euros:


UKIP 48%
CON 25%
LAB 13%
LD 2%
OTH 12%

Labour votes clearly going to UKIP there. Ok, second order election, but so is a by election. It would be a very lazy psephologist indeed who assumes they are coming back and the 25% from the GE is solid and nailed on as a min.
 
Written by Ben Dyson (Positive Money) on September 15, 2010.

A significant point in history happened at about 1.30pm this afternoon. Douglas Carswell MP announced a bill that would end fractional reserve banking.


http://www.positivemoney.org/2010/0...uces-bill-to-stop-fractional-reserve-banking/

...is this going to make it into Nigel's Manifesto...
Would it matter as they are not going to win the election and form the next govt? And any coalition role would obv not include any such proposal.
 
You think so? This is from the local council area that Clacton is in, from the may euros:


UKIP 48%
CON 25%
LAB 13%
LD 2%
OTH 12%

Labour votes clearly going to UKIP there. Ok, second order election, but so is a by election. It would be a very lazy psephologist indeed who assumes they are coming back and the 25% from the GE is solid and nailed on as a min.

Sure but Euro's obviously attract voters in a eurosceptic mindset more than other elections. Obviously, Carswell must feel really confident otherwise he wouldn't have risked it. So I don't doubt UKIP start as favourites. I can't see the Tories holding it. But if Labour is so far off the pace in the by-election there'll be a proper panic.
 
Sure but Euro's obviously attract voters in a eurosceptic mindset more than other elections. Obviously, Carswell must feel really confident otherwise he wouldn't have risked it. So I don't doubt UKIP start as favourites. I can't see the Tories holding it. But if Labour is so far off the pace in the by-election there'll be a proper panic.
But we're not talking about whether there will be a panic among the labour party leadership if they do shit, we're talking about your suggestion that your party are just about tied with the tories and UKIP as favs for the seat. They are two different things.
 
But we're not talking about whether there will be a panic among the labour party leadership if they do shit, we're talking about your suggestion that your party are just about tied with the tories and UKIP as favs for the seat. They are two different things.

Not sure I quite said that - at a guess I'd say something like UKIP low 30s%, and Lab/Tory mid 20s.
 
Not sure I quite said that - at a guess I'd say something like UKIP low 30s%, and Lab/Tory mid 20s.
So just about tied with UKIP and the tories. And that's what we're discussing - not how your leader would feel if your party did shit. Your grounds for the labour vote being solid seem particularly flimsy. In fact, you haven't offered any.
 
to contest the idea that UKIP are the main opposition to the Tories

Seems like a waste of time and money to me, plus it could force them to reveal policies they want kept under wraps until the General Election. It's lose-lose for Labour.
 
Seems like a waste of time and money to me, plus it could force them to reveal policies they want kept under wraps until the General Election. It's lose-lose for Labour.
The quartz political think-tank strikes again:

Make yourself look like a party who doesn't give a shit about your area when you were scoring 40% in the seat 10 years ago and won it in the previous two elections. That'll be 25 grand please.
 
Seems like a waste of time and money to me, plus it could force them to reveal policies they want kept under wraps until the General Election. It's lose-lose for Labour.

If Labour are abandoning hope of picking up working class votes in these areas then they are even bigger trouble still
 
No - they did right not to bother when David Davis had his little pointless ego-stroking exercise. This is different.
So why take his suggestion seriously and why imagine it expresses some deep malaise in your party (tastefully isolated from yourself with they and other stuff)?
 
Maybe the tories should stick Boris up against Carswell, just for shits and giggles.

Not that Dave would let that happen, but the chaos would be pretty funny. Can we try and egg them on to do this?

I was hoping for a bit less Farage on my telly, but I suppose all this is back on now, isn't it? Shite.
 
ukip cum face thread

:hmm:
Ukip-leader-Nigel-Farage--011.jpg
 
Exploiting victims is the UKIP way.

Just like BNP and EDL et al. which doubtless is coincidence.

Recent praise for UKIP from Lennon/Robinson and Britain First will also be coincidence.

Nothing stinks. Nothing at all. If you say it stinks you are politically correct. Political correctness has gone mad, it means you think raping kids is ok.
 
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