Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[laptop]

http://survation.com/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

Oh shi... wait. That was May 2013.

 

[brogdale]

Net migration to Britain has surged by 68,000 in the past year to 243,000, leaving in tatters Theresa May's promise to reduce the figure to below 100,000 by next May's general election.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) says two-thirds of the 68,000 increase in the 12 months to March 2014 was accounted for by a rise inEuropean Union nationals coming to Britain, mostly for work.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/28/uk-net-migration-soars-to-243000-theresa-may

The tories' absurd target fail hands Farage his GE agenda...gift-wrapped.

 

[Lo Siento.]

The tories' absurd target fail hands Farage his GE agenda...gift-wrapped.

Should go on the Tory incompetence/stupidity threat this one. Imagine mistaking the natural fall in immigration that happens during every recession for an effect of government policy!

 

[butchersapron]

I think UKIP just got an MP.

Yes, clacton tory MP defects to UKIP.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Nope, he's calling a byelection...

 

[butchersapron]

Nope, he's calling a byelection...

Either way, he's going into the 2015 election as a UKIP MP. Excellent politics to resign and drag this out for as long as possible given his safe return is assured - Cameron must be crying with frustration.

 

[laptop]

Either way, he's going into the 2015 election as a UKIP MP. Excellent politics to resign and drag this out for as long as possible given his safe return is assured - Cameron must be crying with frustration.

Swivel-eyed? Nooo!

 

[butchersapron]

Swivel-eyed? Nooo!

Better, he's a swivel eyed ranidst

 

[Ax^]

ukip cum face thread

 

[DotCommunist]

Farage will be breaking out the stogies and brandy in celebration

 

[laptop]

ukip cum face thread

 

[Fozzie Bear]

Twitter is saying this guy was the first UKIP MP from April to November in 2008:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Spink

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Pretty sure he just said that the pro-eu lot would win any referendum

 

[butchersapron]

Pretty sure he just said that the pro-eu lot would win any referendum

The last poll had them winning by 1%. That was earlier this week i believe.

 

[butchersapron]

Twitter is saying this guy was the first UKIP MP from April to November in 2008:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Spink

Totally missed that. I wonder if his later reclassification from UKIP MP to independent could be retroactive - and all his votes were then recorded as for an independent, so he technically never was a UKIP MP?

 

[Fozzie Bear]

Totally missed that. I wonder if his later reclassification from UKIP MP to independent could be retroactive - and all his votes were then recorded as for an independent, so he technically never was a UKIP MP?

I think pretty much everyone missed it, which doesn't say much for his impact. That reclassification would make sense.

He also seems to be a loon.

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting that Matthew Goodwin - co-author of the recent book on UKIP - has seemingly briefed every tory MP on his table ranking how vulnerable each of them are to UKIP pressure - Clacton was most favourable.

 

[brogdale]

The timing with the (net) immigration stats makes this even more excruciating for tory high command.

 

[butchersapron]

The timing with the (net) immigration stats makes this even more excruciating for tory high command.

Do you know what i'm starting to suspect? That Farages decision to go for thanet south (144th most favourable seat for UKIP or something like that) is tied to other tory MPs in more UKIP favourable seats "considering their options" as he put it this morning.

 

[JTG]

12000 majority over Labour, 5000 LD votes up for grabs - could be a three way race on the face of it

 

[brogdale]

Do you know what i'm starting to suspect? That Farages decision to go for thanet south (144th most favourable seat for UKIP or something like that) is tied to other tory MPs in more UKIP favourable seats "considering their options" as he put it this morning.

Yep, an intriguing, though unsurprising comment from Farage. I'm sure that they're in communication with a number of the 'swivel' tory fraternity. The 'kipper news agenda strategy looks quite sophisticated atm.

I'm not conviced that Farage has 'taken one for the team with Thanet South, though...remember that Ashcroft's July marginal poll had them on 33% even without Farage in place.

 

[butchersapron]

Yep, an intriguing, though unsurprising comment from Farage. I'm sure that they're in communication with a number of the 'swivel' tory fraternity. The 'kipper news agenda strategy looks quite sophisticated atm.

I'm not conviced that Farage has 'taken one for the team with Thanet South, though...remember that Ashcroft's July marginal poll had them on 33% even without Farage in place.

Nor am i - it may look that way to those desperate careerists on the tory side though. Or more pragmatically, it means a) he won't be after their personal seat and b) they may have more chance of old chums on the same benches after 2015 so they won't be the isolated new boys who have to toe the line.

 

[brogdale]

12000 majority over Labour, 5000 LD votes up for grabs - could be a three way race on the face of it

Let's hope Terry Allen stands again (and a good crop of other indies) and we'll see the LD scum at seventh or worse.

 

[JTG]

Other waverers waiting for the Clacton result first? Conference season coming up, when do we reckon the Tories will move the writ? Will someone move it for them?

 

[articul8]

Wondering whether an even Con/UKIP split might let Labour through the middle here? Not saying it's likely, but it appears possible.

Don't know this area of the world at all really. Was surprised to read

The stark exception is the town of Jaywick, an area that suffers from extremely high levels of deprivation.

In the Indices of deprivation 2010 an area of Jaywick was identified as the single most deprived LSOA in all of England, out of around 32,000, with unemployment estimated at almost 50%. Many homes are essentially beach huts and lack basic amenities. In the 2007 Index, this area was the third most deprived in the country.

 

[brogdale]

From Carswell fanboy Oborne...

He cannot be compared to the ordinary self-interested political defections, for instance Shaun Woodward or Quentin Davies’ departure from the Conservatives to New Labour, in 2001 and 2007 respectively. Mr Carswell, and this is completely terrifying for David Cameron, is acting out of conviction rather than self-interest. It is greatly to the credit of Mr Carswell that, in striking contrast to Woodward or Davies, he has called a by-election to fight his Essex constituency, where he may even stand a chance of success. If he wins, he will have broken every known rule of politics. It has always been assumed that the individual vote which an incumbent MP can attract is a fraction of that commanded by the party which he represents. If Mr Carswell carries Clacton, a political convulsion will have taken place.

Whilst Oborne is wrong about self-interest; all of the psychopathic elite obviously are, he is right to identify the terrifying nature of this defection for Dave.

I don't think Oborne appreciates that Carswell's incumbency support will be eclipsed by the seismic swing from tory to UKIP.

 

[butchersapron]

Wondering whether an even Con/UKIP split might let Labour through the middle here? Not saying it's likely, but it appears possible.

They'll be staying at home or voting UKIP.

 

[Quartz]

Wondering whether an even Con/UKIP split might let Labour through the middle here? Not saying it's likely, but it appears possible.

A Con / LD split in 2010 let Labour survive in some seats.

 

[brogdale]

A Con / LD split in 2010 let Labour survive in some seats.

I can't see Labour keeping the 25% they got there in 2010. Carswell will even mop up from that cohort.

 

[articul8]

They'll be staying at home or voting UKIP.

both are possible of course - by elections plague on all your houses stuff. Still, I'd be lasering in on Carswell's voting record (bedroom tax, NHS etc) and that he shows the public school Thatcherite underbelly to Farage's "man of the people" shtick.