Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Turkey, ISIS, Kurds and Syria

Time will tell. If this summer passes without any IS attacks on Istanbul or the resorts, I think collusion will be the only possible explanation. The precise extent of that collusion is another question, of course.

End up in a counter-intuitive position where, for the sake of the civilians who'll bear the brunt of any attacks, we're almost hoping that there is collusion - if you see what I mean?

(Edited to add - that was unclear. 'Two options, both worse' - collusion with IS is rotten, but if proof of non-collusion means bombs in markets & beaches, then its demonstration will make no-one feel better)
 
Last edited:
End up in a counter-intuitive position where, for the sake of the civilians who'll bear the brunt of any attacks, we're almost hoping that there is collusion - if you see what I mean?

I certainly do.

After all, what choice does Erdogan really have? With two million undocumented refugees from Syria fanning out all over the country, it's clear that IS could cause absolute havoc if they chose to do so. A degree of covert collusion is more or less inevitable. Given that, he might as well get something out of it himself, and co-operation against the YPG, along with a free hand against the PKK, would seem to be a reasonable return from his perspective.

I'm sure that NATO understand all that, and if they've got any sense they'll turn a blind eye.
 
I certainly do.

After all, what choice does Erdogan really have? With two million undocumented refugees from Syria fanning out all over the country, it's clear that IS could cause absolute havoc if they chose to do so. A degree of covert collusion is more or less inevitable. Given that, he might as well get something out of it himself, and co-operation against the YPG, along with a free hand against the PKK, would seem to be a reasonable return from his perspective.

I'm sure that NATO understand all that, and if they've got any sense they'll turn a blind eye.

Alternatively, if he hadn't backed IS against Assad & the YPG, hadn't allowed a porous border, then they might be less of a threat militarily. It's easy for me to say sat here, but it looks like he's made some massive strategic errors.
 
Alternatively, if he hadn't backed IS against Assad & the YPG, hadn't allowed a porous border, then they might be less of a threat militarily. It's easy for me to say sat here, but it looks like he's made some massive strategic errors.

I suppose the really important question is: how much ideological sympathy does the AKP have for IS?

I used to think the answer was "very little." Turkey is constitutionally committed to the current ME borders and, generally speaking, the AKP is as bourgeois as it is Islamist--hence the frequent comparisons between George Bush and Erdogan. There seemed to be racial differences as well, with IS very much an Arab phenomenon. So it was hard to imagine any sympathy between Erdogan and the wild-eyed radicalism of IS.

But recently I'm not so sure. Erdogan seems quite prepared to tear up the Kemalist constitution and, apart from the presumed military collusion, there are increasing reports of Turks actually fighting for IS. Maybe he is now countenancing a permanent IS state on his borders. Obviously he's playing with fire if so, but it's conceivable.
 
I suppose the really important question is: how much ideological sympathy does the AKP have for IS?

I used to think the answer was "very little." Turkey is constitutionally committed to the current ME borders and, generally speaking, the AKP is as bourgeois as it is Islamist--hence the frequent comparisons between George Bush and Erdogan. There seemed to be racial differences as well, with IS very much an Arab phenomenon. So it was hard to imagine any sympathy between Erdogan and the wild-eyed radicalism of IS.

But recently I'm not so sure. Erdogan seems quite prepared to tear up the Kemalist constitution and, apart from the presumed military collusion, there are increasing reports of Turks actually fighting for IS. Maybe he is now countenancing a permanent IS state on his borders. Obviously he's playing with fire if so, but it's conceivable.
always good to see you work in an ibsen quote.
 
Alternatively, if he hadn't backed IS against Assad & the YPG, hadn't allowed a porous border, then they might be less of a threat militarily. It's easy for me to say sat here, but it looks like he's made some massive strategic errors.

oh absolutely, Turkish policy to this point has been a car crash - not least for Turkey - however Turkey doesn't have a time machine, and given IS's established presence and strength in Turkey, going to war with them in the way we might like lays Turkey open to attacks that make Tunisia look vanilla, and week after week after week. bloodbath doesn't go near it.

shit options all round.
 
I suppose the really important question is: how much ideological sympathy does the AKP have for IS?

I used to think the answer was "very little." Turkey is constitutionally committed to the current ME borders and, generally speaking, the AKP is as bourgeois as it is Islamist--hence the frequent comparisons between George Bush and Erdogan. There seemed to be racial differences as well, with IS very much an Arab phenomenon. So it was hard to imagine any sympathy between Erdogan and the wild-eyed radicalism of IS.

But recently I'm not so sure. Erdogan seems quite prepared to tear up the Kemalist constitution and, apart from the presumed military collusion, there are increasing reports of Turks actually fighting for IS. Maybe he is now countenancing a permanent IS state on his borders. Obviously he's playing with fire if so, but it's conceivable.

I'm sure you know this but the western commentariat and their bourgeois leftist allies (deliberately?) ignore this. There is a qualitative difference between Erdoğan and the AKP as a whole. In fact, most Erdoğanists (tayyıpçılar) are ideologically far closer to the MHP than they are the AKP. So it makes total sense that Erdogan wants to tear up the Kemalist constitution, in keeping with Islam's gradual (or not so gradual) merger with the authoritarian right. This is why things between Erdogan and the AKP are relatively sour (certainly as concerns the rank-and-file of the party and even the davutoğlu faction) despite Erdoğan's ambitions for an AKP victory in an early election. The party knows it won't happen with Tayyip moving closer to turkish fascism, whilst wanting to preserve its broadly islamo-kemalist bourgeois outlook.
 
Latest Brecher column - c+p 'cos of paywall

Don’t be fooled -- Turkey is attacking the Kurds

If you’re a trusting type, you might be cheering for the Turkish Air Force, which according to the more gullible news services has finally decided to strike Islamic State (IS) targets in Syria.

Don’t believe it.

It’s not IS the Turkish planes have been bombing. Here’s a breakdown of the actual targets of the Turkish airstrikes:

The attack on IS was a single sortie against limited targets and closer to the Turkish border, while the one against the PKK was much different. The air force dispatched 75 F-16s and F-4E 2020s in three waves during July 24-26. Some 300 smart bombs were dropped in 185 sorties against approximately 400 PKK targets.
The Turkish raids were almost insulting in their bait-and-switch: One little strike on Islamic State, or a nice vacant lot that might once have been visited by IS . . . and then 300 sorties, with the best US air-to-ground ordnance you can buy, killing God knows how many hundreds or thousands of Kurdish socialist fighters.

Oh, and by the way, don’t expect most Western leftists to shed any tears over those dead Socialist fighters. You’d think Western lefties would be happy that a radical-feminist, non-sectarian, aggressively pro-LGBT, egalitarian/socialist militia is taking back ground from the most reactionary, sectarian killers on earth. Nah. The most you can hope for is guarded silence. Kurds make them nervous for reasons I’d rather not think about.

Nobody much likes the Kurds, especially Erdogan’s AK party. In fact, the AKP hates the Kurds so much that this shared hobby of Kurd-killing has been the beginning of a beautiful friendship between the Turkish military and IS. IS fighters have always been able to move easily over the Turkish border, and there are persistent reports that Erdogan’s daughter herself is playing their Florence Nightingale, patching up those rapists’ boo-boos in one of the quasi-secret hospitals along the border.

The AKP’s position is simple: They hate the Kurds, period. Islamic State also hates the Kurds. So Erdogan has to force himself to mouth even the slightest objection to IS, whereas the spittle really flies when he starts ranting against the Kurdish PKK/YPG.

And what makes Erdogan maddest of all is that the young women and men of the YPG/J keep winning. That’s the real reason Turkey has launched every fighter-bomber it’s got, after years of watching indifferently as IS spread over Syria and Iraq: Because the Kurds were coming closer to Raqqa and Jarabulus every day, and had to be stopped.

The Kurds have been gaining ground in Turkey itself too, and that upsets the AKP more than anything the Kurdish militia is doing south of the border. The Turkish/Kurdish party HDP took a huge chance in the 2015 Turkish elections, and won. The gamble was that the party could draw some non-Kurdish voters sick of Erdogan’s quasi-fascist antics to cross the 10% margin it needed to get seats in parliament. The HDP’s best previous showing was 9.77%; if it stayed at that level, it would end up with nothing based on the election rules, and put the AKP back in power.

But the HDP passed the 10% hurdle, winning over many Turks and Alevi, getting more than 13% of the vote, winning 80 seats.

Thanks mostly to the success of the HDP, Erdogan’s AKP lost its majority for the first time in more than ten years. They were seriously pissed off, and they’re not over-delicate people. Erdogan’s demographic is Turkey’s redstaters, inland reactionary hicks, like I said a long time ago.

People like that don’t mind a little blood. Red-staters like a good killer; Lt. “Rusty” Calley was everybody’s friend in the Georgia hinterlands.

Actually, it’s a good exercise, transferring what’s happening in Turkey/Syria to the US. Imagine (and it takes some imagining, I admit) that a truly noble, progressive, socialist movement took over Northern Mexico. It would be a godsend for the people there, but you think the US would stand for it? Nah. The F-16s would be flying day and night to wipe those do-gooders out.

And that’s what the Turkish AF is busy doing right now, while pretending to attack IS. In reality, the Turkish military has stepped in to keep IS in power from total collapse against the Kurdish advance. It was the Kurds’ military victories, combined with the HDP’s electoral success, that finally drove Erdogan’s AKP right over the edge.

You may recall a little town called Kobane kicked up some dust last winter, when the Kurdish kids of the YPG/J stopped the supposedly unstoppable IS forces dead, killing something like 3000 of them in the ruins before the Caliph finally pulled his brain-dead war tourists from Dusseldorf and Marseille back south.

Welp, the Kurds pursued. They pushed out from Kobane, west, south, and east—every direction except north, because that’s Turkey, where the very existence of Kurds was denied until recently.

When Kobane failed to fall on schedule, the Kurds held three “cantons” in northern Syria, separated by hostile turf.

But they kept pushing, and there were signs that the jihadis of IS, always bragging about how eager they were to get their precious deaths, weren’t in such a hurry to die anymore. In fact, they were starting to break.

In mid-June 2015, YPG units pushing east from Kobane and west from Hasakeh took Tal Abyad, uniting two out of the three cantons of Syria in one continuous strip of land along the Turkish border.

This was not supposed to happen, in the smug little world inhabited by Mr. Erdogan and his Islamist buddies. The idea was to sic IS on the Kurds, then mop them up when they’d killed those crazy socialist kids. Now those kids were in charge of a huge stretch of Northern Syria, waving to their Kurdish kin across the border in Turkey, where hating Kurds is a national sport.

After the YPG/J took Tal Abyad, Islamic State was in a hopeless position . . . unless the Turks intervened. No more wave-throughs across the border, no more easy delivery of munitions and medicines to the boys in Raqqa. And the Kurds soon turned south, pushing against Raqqa itself. They took Ayn Issa, the only major town between Kobane and Raqqa, a week after meeting up in Tal Abyad.

Suddenly IS was breaking in every front where it faced the Kurds. Failing on the battlefield, they went back to what they do best—killing 32 young Kurdish socialists in a suicide bombing in Suruc, just across the border from Kobane. Turkish collusion was all over that massacre, but that shit only works on people who haven’t been through the Hell which is Kurdish history. The YPG/J vowed revenge and marched on.

Revenge wasn’t long coming, either; the YPG/J took Sarrin on July 26-27 2015. Sarrin is on the Euphrates, with an important bridge over the river (which is more like a lake around there, thanks to the dam). IS should have been able to hold Sarrin indefinitely, but their scumbag men were running, not fighting:

<blockquote>Some of [the Islamic State fighters in Sarrin] drop their weapons and run away when they see us. They are running away now. We are on top of a hill in Sarrin," said one Kurdish fighter.</blockquote>

Sarrin is perfectly positioned to cut off the town of Jarabulus from all contact with IS HQ in Raqqa. And that matters a lot, because the area between Jarabulus and A’zaz to the west is the last strip of Turkish border still held by Turkish intel’s little friends in IS. Better yet, this strip includes Dabiq, the town IS named its house mag after, the glossy little number that published those famous articles justifying selling Yazidii women and girls as sex slaves.

It wouldn’t do, if you’re one of Erdogan’s generals, to let the Kurdish commies take Dabiq, let alone Jarabulus, which was the site of IS’s first grandiose “emirate” in northern Syria.

If YPG/J had been allowed to advance across the Euphrates, breaking up the “emirate” around Jarabulus, and liberating Dabiq, IS wouldn’t just be defeated, it’d be laughed at. And if there’s one thing slave-selling jihadis don’t enjoy, it’s people laughing at them. Or with them. Or anywhere near them.

So the Turkish Air Force is sending the best planes and munitions the US can send them to wipe out these pesky kids in YPG/J, while making noises about giving their IS clients a good spanking. At the moment, the Turkish generals are claiming they’re only hitting PKK/YPG in northern Iraq, but there are already reports of Turkish strikes on Kurdish targets in Syria.

It’s inevitable that the Turkish military will focus on those targets once it’s done its job of distracting the gullible media with this pantomime strike on IS.

YPJ/G is the most heroic group I’ve seen since I started writing about war. So it makes perfect sense that everybody wants to wipe them out.
 
Latest Brecher column - c+p 'cos of paywall

Oh, and by the way, don’t expect most Western leftists to shed any tears over those dead Socialist fighters. You’d think Western lefties would be happy that a radical-feminist, non-sectarian, aggressively pro-LGBT, egalitarian/socialist militia is taking back ground from the most reactionary, sectarian killers on earth. Nah. The most you can hope for is guarded silence. Kurds make them nervous for reasons I’d rather not think about.

Aye so it doesn't matter that Turkish and Kurdish leftcoms have denounced this facade does it? Get a grip, man! We were the first to seriously talk about these Stalinists.

This is what I call neo-orientalism. Pretending to stick up for the oppressed by limiting their agency and analytical abilities.
 
Would Erdogan really risk a wave of suicide attacks on Turkish cities & resorts? Or is the threat overstated to excuse previous inactivity - or mask the fact that allowing the U.S. to operate out of a Turkish airbase would be received poorly by sections of the electorate?

I guess this could demonstrate the extent/limits of influence/control/threat that elements of the Turkish political & military establishment have over IS. Have incidents of apparent collusion around the borders been local, low level accommodations, have they been temporary tactical blind eyes, or examples of a broader strategic alliance between forces with mutual enemies?

Would Erdogan benefit from an internal security problem that would allow him to impose restrictions on freedoms, and on democracy?
IMO of course he would. His grip on power is being loosened through repeated corruption scandals, but he knows (partly because of various "reforms") that the military isn't in the best of shapes to intervene and depose him. A "wave of suicide attacks" would provide him with a perfect excuse to take Turkey toward dictatorship.
 
Would Erdogan benefit from an internal security problem that would allow him to impose restrictions on freedoms, and on democracy?
IMO of course he would. His grip on power is being loosened through repeated corruption scandals, but he knows (partly because of various "reforms") that the military isn't in the best of shapes to intervene and depose him. A "wave of suicide attacks" would provide him with a perfect excuse to take Turkey toward dictatorship.

The military won't depose him. Not unless there's a split with the AKP.
 
The Turkish army has been significantly infiltrated by Islamists for some time now.

Turkish cops, proclaiming " takbir " while attacking kurdish leftsists. ISIS stylee


BztVz4fCIAA60Je.jpg
 
it should have a significant impact, but the crux is going to be how much of the current Kurdish anti-IS effort is going to be sidetracked into anti-Turkish operations, and at what point will fighting between the Kurds and the Turks give IS such a boost in Syria that it compensates for the harder time they'll be getting from US airpower. we just don't know, and no one who can't tell you next fridays euromillions numbers can tell you either.

i can tell you that NATO wants Erdogan to ignore the Kurdish element to this, that NATO thinks Turkey is shooting itself (and NATO) in the feet with its myopic fear of,and obsession with, all-things-Kurd, that NATO is fearful that Turkey is throwing a massive spanner in the works and will spend 5% of its efforts on IS and the other 95% on the Kurds and that the whole thing will collapse into a complete gangfuck with IS getting a free ride on the ground in Syria and with its logistics routes and intelligence gathering networks in Turkey remaining untouched.

it might turn out like that, it might go the other way, or it might end up with whatever good comes from access to forward basing in Turkey will be matched by chaos within the broadly(ish) united front thats currently fighting IS. i'd put money on the latter.

Cop the fuck on . Erdogan has without any shadow of a doubt been up to his moustachioed bollix with IS and the other AQ factions for years . The evidence is glaring . NATO knows this inside out and has done for years now . The primary NATO states...Britain ,France and USA are perfectly aware what it's about . Because they've been up to their bollix in this too . The primary aim of all of them is destroying Syria . Nowt else .

Kurds are blocking the supply lines . Just look at any map of rebel and IS controlled territory and the supply lines are so glaringly fucking obvious its a joke
 
End up in a counter-intuitive position where, for the sake of the civilians who'll bear the brunt of any attacks, we're almost hoping that there is collusion - if you see what I mean?

(Edited to add - that was unclear. 'Two options, both worse' - collusion with IS is rotten, but if proof of non-collusion means bombs in markets & beaches, then its demonstration will make no-one feel better)

The other end of collusion...fuck westerners on lilos . What happens to the Syrians if IS continue to have state sponsor . And not just IS but the other fanatical scum turkey supports
 
Just to be clear, in case anyone still pays attention to this guy: IS has no established presence or strength in Turkey.

It's reasonable to assume they have lots of sleeper agents there, but there's no evidence whatsoever.


Recruitment and fundraising stall , Istanbul

Bq-GeIZCEAEWnpB.jpg
 
Sure. But you don't need a western-centric view to realise that westerners - & Russians - on lilos bringing in approx $40 billion a year in tourist revenues are significant to any calculation of threat & risk. Erdogan's not built the world's biggest airport just to fly in jihadi recruits - his future plans involve tourism - which is why attacks on resorts were mentioned.

The other end of collusion...fuck westerners on lilos . What happens to the Syrians if IS continue to have state sponsor . And not just IS but the other fanatical scum turkey supports
 

This is to do with the 54 US trained rebels, half of who, including their commander, were taken prisoner by JAN almost immediately after deployment. So the suspicion was they were acting as spotters for the US. Now the US realise they have to make some show of defending them/retaliating or the already pathetic amount of recruits they can attract will disappear. I'm suspicious about the ineptness of the deployment.
 
Sure. But you don't need a western-centric view to realise that westerners - & Russians - on lilos bringing in approx $40 billion a year in tourist revenues are significant to any calculation of threat & risk. Erdogan's not built the world's biggest airport just to fly in jihadi recruits - his future plans involve tourism - which is why attacks on resorts were mentioned.


Absolutely

Btw I was just in from the pub and shouldn't have been posting at all

Apols..and to kebabking too
 
Back
Top Bottom