Turkey, ISIS, Kurds and Syria

[butchersapron]

you recon Barzani's crew will throw the lefty kurds under the bus (and by bus I mean turkish forces operating under other pretences)?

Wouldn't be the first time. There'll be a nod and wink and a easing off of any joint operations, any HPG presence in Iraq made more difficult etc. They are a threat to the KRG stitch up with the potential to detonate thing internally and cost a lot of people a lot of money and power. (see also the PUK side of the 'deal').

 

[Casually Red]

it still gets my goat that several hundred commie kurds and several foriegn fighters fell in the defense of kobani (and the ypg/j have the honour to call them all martyrs) but one, uno, the first number, the singular. One peshmerga fighter died in that fight, late as they were to proceedings. Yet the whole whitewash here is that peshmerga run tings, peshmerga sort it out. Our people, the military wing of the KRG, yeah they solved everything.

Its just bullshit.

Western coverage of the entire conflict in a nutshell .

They , the western consensus , can't go around creditting the very people they're about to wipe out in kobane as the heroes of kobane . There'd be an angry letter to the times or something .

No , the heroes were the peshmerga , and these guys the peshmerga saved from IS are ethnic cleansers and terrorists .

 

[frogwoman]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/28/w...r-isis-from-strip-of-northern-syria.html?_r=0



Worrying news for Rojava.

relatively moderate Syrian insurgents

lol.

 

[teqniq]

Turkey says Kurdish peace process impossible as Nato meets

The president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has said it is impossible to continue a peace process with Kurdish militants and urged parliament to strip politicians with links to “terrorist groups” of their immunity from prosecution.

His comments came as Nato envoys met in Brussels to discuss the growing crisis in Syria and Iraq in a special session requested by Turkey....

Quelle surprise.

 

[Pickman's model]

Turkey says Kurdish peace process impossible as Nato meets



Quelle surprise.

this will end well

 

[frogwoman]

The institute for the study of war reckons this is a positive thing for the defeat of isis.
http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/turkey-expands-campaign-against-isis-and-pkk

Any thoughts? Ive got my doubts tbh.

 

[phildwyer]

The institute for the study of war reckons this is a positive thing for the defeat of isis.
http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/turkey-expands-campaign-against-isis-and-pkk

Any thoughts? Ive got my doubts tbh.

It will help IS, most obviously by giving them a reasaon to expand their operations into Turkey. From where I sit (Turkey) that looks like a very bad thing indeed.

 

[Flavour]

Anybody want to take bets on who'll be the first nation to recognise ISIS as a State? I would have Turkey somewhere near the top of the favourites.

 

[kebabking]

...Any thoughts? Ive got my doubts tbh.

it should have a significant impact, but the crux is going to be how much of the current Kurdish anti-IS effort is going to be sidetracked into anti-Turkish operations, and at what point will fighting between the Kurds and the Turks give IS such a boost in Syria that it compensates for the harder time they'll be getting from US airpower. we just don't know, and no one who can't tell you next fridays euromillions numbers can tell you either.

i can tell you that NATO wants Erdogan to ignore the Kurdish element to this, that NATO thinks Turkey is shooting itself (and NATO) in the feet with its myopic fear of,and obsession with, all-things-Kurd, that NATO is fearful that Turkey is throwing a massive spanner in the works and will spend 5% of its efforts on IS and the other 95% on the Kurds and that the whole thing will collapse into a complete gangfuck with IS getting a free ride on the ground in Syria and with its logistics routes and intelligence gathering networks in Turkey remaining untouched.

it might turn out like that, it might go the other way, or it might end up with whatever good comes from access to forward basing in Turkey will be matched by chaos within the broadly(ish) united front thats currently fighting IS. i'd put money on the latter.

 

[teqniq]

 

[phildwyer]

it should have a significant impact, but the crux is going to be how much of the current Kurdish anti-IS effort is going to be sidetracked into anti-Turkish operations, and at what point will fighting between the Kurds and the Turks give IS such a boost in Syria that it compensates for the harder time they'll be getting from US airpower. we just don't know, and no one who can't tell you next fridays euromillions numbers can tell you either.

i can tell you that NATO wants Erdogan to ignore the Kurdish element to this, that NATO thinks Turkey is shooting itself (and NATO) in the feet with its myopic fear of,and obsession with, all-things-Kurd, that NATO is fearful that Turkey is throwing a massive spanner in the works and will spend 5% of its efforts on IS and the other 95% on the Kurds and that the whole thing will collapse into a complete gangfuck with IS getting a free ride on the ground in Syria and with its logistics routes and intelligence gathering networks in Turkey remaining untouched.

it might turn out like that, it might go the other way, or it might end up with whatever good comes from access to forward basing in Turkey will be matched by chaos within the broadly(ish) united front thats currently fighting IS. i'd put money on the latter.

Oh Lord. Where to even begin?

None of "the current Kurdish anti-IS effort is going to be sidetracked into anti-Turkish operations," because the Kurdish groups fighting the Turks are distinct from the Kurdish groups fighting IS. NATO couldn't care less about the Turkish attitude to the PKK. Nobody thinks Turkey is "shooting itself in the foot" by attacking the PKK. Turkey has no policy towards "all-things-Kurd," which is a meaningless phrase. Everyone knows all this except you.

More ignorant buffoonery from our resident wiseacre, in short.

 

[teqniq]

 

[teqniq]

 

[frogwoman]

By who?

 

[Patteran]

It will help IS, most obviously by giving them a reasaon to expand their operations into Turkey. From where I sit (Turkey) that looks like a very bad thing indeed.

Would Erdogan really risk a wave of suicide attacks on Turkish cities & resorts? Or is the threat overstated to excuse previous inactivity - or mask the fact that allowing the U.S. to operate out of a Turkish airbase would be received poorly by sections of the electorate?

I guess this could demonstrate the extent/limits of influence/control/threat that elements of the Turkish political & military establishment have over IS. Have incidents of apparent collusion around the borders been local, low level accommodations, have they been temporary tactical blind eyes, or examples of a broader strategic alliance between forces with mutual enemies?

 

[teqniq]

By who?

The report doesn't say, just:

Turkey's energy system has suffered many attacks recently, Yildiz said, adding that terrorists are taking aim at Turkey's strategic position, stability and development

 

[Casually Red]

Would Erdogan really risk a wave of suicide attacks on Turkish cities & resorts? Or is the threat overstated to excuse previous inactivity - or mask the fact that allowing the U.S. to operate out of a Turkish airbase would be received poorly by sections of the electorate?

I guess this could demonstrate the extent/limits of influence/control/threat that elements of the Turkish political & military establishment have over IS. Have incidents of apparent collusion around the borders been local, low level accommodations, have they been temporary tactical blind eyes, or examples of a broader strategic alliance between forces with mutual enemies?

Let's look at the leader of this IS support group they've arrested . Some Turkish policemen arrested him last year . Within days he'd been freed and they were arrested for arresting him . They're facing massive time . Same goes for the cops and prosecutors who stopped and seized 2 trucks full of gear bound for IS . Turned out the trucks belonged to the intelligence services . Cops and prosecutors arrested . Facing massive jail time .

It goes to the very top . They're Erdogans client army . Like the other armed factions .

Eta

I'll post this article again . The links in it are pretty extensive .

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-isis-turke_b_6128950.html

 

[Pickman's model]

Let's look at the leader of this IS support group they've arrested . Some Turkish policemen arrested him last year . Within days he'd been freed and they were arrested for arresting him . They're facing massive time . Same goes for the cops and prosecutors who stopped and seized 2 trucks full of gear bound for IS . Turned out the trucks belonged to the intelligence services . Cops and prosecutors arrested . Facing massive jail time .

It goes to the very top . They're Erdogans client army . Like the other armed factions .

Eta

I'll post this article again . The links in it are pretty extensive .

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-isis-turke_b_6128950.html

that's absolutely insane.

 

[Patteran]

I think there's some significant distance between 'client army' & 'useful rogues' (to quote Serge), but any degree of collusion with those rotters is corrupt - & presumably potentially dangerous. What's the Syrian phrase that Assad & Fisk have both used - 'if you feed a scorpion, it will bite you'.

Let's look at the leader of this IS support group they've arrested . Some Turkish policemen arrested him last year . Within days he'd been freed and they were arrested for arresting him . They're facing massive time . Same goes for the cops and prosecutors who stopped and seized 2 trucks full of gear bound for IS . Turned out the trucks belonged to the intelligence services . Cops and prosecutors arrested . Facing massive jail time .

It goes to the very top . They're Erdogans client army . Like the other armed factions .

Eta

I'll post this article again . The links in it are pretty extensive .

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/research-paper-isis-turke_b_6128950.html

 

[teqniq]

Erdogan's a complete scumbag - I kinda arrived at that conclusion before looking at the above article. One wonders how much longer they can remain in NATO. I imagine one ore two state actors are going to find it increasingly difficult to pretend that none of this is happening.

 

[Pickman's model]

Erdogan's a complete scumbag - I kinda arrived at that conclusion before looking at the above article. One wonders how much longer they can remain in NATO. I imagine one ore two state actors are going to find it increasingly difficult to pretend that none of this is happening.

yeh. you know why they call them actors, right?

 

[Geri]

By who?

PKK.

 

[butchersapron]

PKK.

Which is going to put immediate pressure on the PKK and YPG etc from the KRG (edit: and on the KRG as well - mutually weakened. Classic stuff). It's their pipeline. Erdogan and those elements he represents will attack the HDP from the other side.

 

[teqniq]

Turkey’s Political Influence Felt as Washington Turns Its Back on Kurds Fighting ISIS

 

[kebabking]

...One wonders how much longer they can remain in NATO. I imagine one ore two state actors are going to find it increasingly difficult to pretend that none of this is happening.

go to NATO HQ, you'll see vast numbers of documents, programmes etc.. with NOTUR written on them. it means not to be shown to, or discussed with, Turkish officers seconded to NATO. seasoned NATO watchers (and you thought train spotters were sad...) will have noted that many operations that theoeotically have a NATO flag on them are actually national/bi-national/multi-national operations by NATO members but not done through the machinery of NATO HQ's to keep sensitive information out of the grubby mitts of those countries within NATO that some other members of NATO don't trust as far as they could kick them.

relations are strained, and have been for at least a decade. they are still in NATO because it suits them to have a wall to hide behind if their plans go tits up, and it suits NATO to have them in - through gritted teeth - to keep a lid on any future Greece/Turkey squabbles, to have a buffer between mainland Europe and the ME, and to facilitate NATO intelligence gathering over the ME, Central Asia and the Caucuses and southern Russia.

we don't trust them, and they don't like our people being on the ground to see what they are upto...

 

[Casually Red]

that's absolutely insane.

Turkish soldier confronting IS

IS threatening turkeys border...inside it , with arms

They're clearly inside the Turkish border post there

 

[Pickman's model]

so much for the plucky turkish army being the guarantor of secularism

 

[phildwyer]

Would Erdogan really risk a wave of suicide attacks on Turkish cities & resorts? Or is the threat overstated to excuse previous inactivity - or mask the fact that allowing the U.S. to operate out of a Turkish airbase would be received poorly by sections of the electorate?

I guess this could demonstrate the extent/limits of influence/control/threat that elements of the Turkish political & military establishment have over IS. Have incidents of apparent collusion around the borders been local, low level accommodations, have they been temporary tactical blind eyes, or examples of a broader strategic alliance between forces with mutual enemies?

Time will tell. If this summer passes without any IS attacks on Istanbul or the resorts, I think collusion will be the only possible explanation. The precise extent of that collusion is another question, of course.

 

[phildwyer]

so much for the plucky turkish army being the guarantor of secularism

The Turkish army has been significantly infiltrated by Islamists for some time now.

 

[phildwyer]

go to NATO HQ, you'll see vast numbers of documents, programmes etc.. with NOTUR written on them. it means not to be shown to, or discussed with, Turkish officers seconded to NATO. seasoned NATO watchers (and you thought train spotters were sad...) will have noted that many operations that theoeotically have a NATO flag on them are actually national/bi-national/multi-national operations by NATO members but not done through the machinery of NATO HQ's to keep sensitive information out of the grubby mitts of those countries within NATO that some other members of NATO don't trust as far as they could kick them.

relations are strained, and have been for at least a decade. they are still in NATO because it suits them to have a wall to hide behind if their plans go tits up, and it suits NATO to have them in - through gritted teeth - to keep a lid on any future Greece/Turkey squabbles, to have a buffer between mainland Europe and the ME, and to facilitate NATO intelligence gathering over the ME, Central Asia and the Caucuses and southern Russia.

we don't trust them, and they don't like our people being on the ground to see what they are upto...

Sigh. I suppose it's actually quite impressive, the way you manage to maintain a tone of unflappable, serene confidence while the content of your posts reveal you to be speaking from a position of utterly pristine ignorance. That's the mark of a truly experienced bullshitter.

It's not exactly news that some members of NATO distrust others: some of them have actually been at war with each other while remaining part of the same organization, and far longer ago than a decade too. But Turkey is as widely trusted as any other European member of the alliance. If you have any evidence to the contrary, please post it.