Those by-elections (potential and otherwise) in full
- Thread starter PR1Berske
- Start date
If it hadn't have been for those pesky voters
Yeah - really brave line “we’ve fucked the country but just imagine what those guys would do!”
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I know this is just a fantasy prediction but it is stil funny thinking about it.
Eric Jarvis
Well-Known Member
First thing the media aren't mentioning. Tamworth was not a safe Tory seat. It's traditionally been a Tory/Labour marginal and held by Labour as recently as 2005. The Labour vote was significantly down from then. In Mid Bedfordshire it was up but not by all that much. It's a total Tory collapse, and a complete failure by the Lib Dems to capitalise on that. It's not great for Labour though. Even throwing the entirety of the national Labour Party's resources into just two seats there not a big increase in the Labour vote, and they have to fight 650 seats at the general election. This is why trying to apply what happened in a by election to a forthcoming general election is a mug's game. Sadly the news that Sian Berry has resigned her seat on Camden Council to concentrate on her bid to succeed Caroline Lucas as MP for Brighton Pavilion is proof (if more was needed) that the leadership of the Green Party are as personally ambitious and opportunist as those in all the other parties and that the Green Party have zero interest in non-white or working class people in the inner cities. Change is going to have to come from somewhere else.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
It was a safe seat though. I know it was Labour from 97-2005, but since then it has gone massively tory. It is slightly odd in that it did so waaaaay more than in other, seemingly comparable seats, but it did. There doesn't even seem to have been any significant boundary changes. A bit weird.
Also, Labour are fighting for 632 seats
Also, Labour are fighting for 632 seats
Eric Jarvis
Well-Known Member
I don't see how a seat that has changed hands over the last few decades is a "safe seat". Mind you I am dubious of the entire concept of a "safe seat". Tamworth however has generally been regarded as a "Belwether" seat, and looking at it that way it is saying loud and clear " you are all rubbish".It was a safe seat though. I know it was Labour from 97-2005, but since then it has gone massively tory. It is slightly odd in that it did so waaaaay more than in other, seemingly comparable seats, but it did. There doesn't even seem to have been any significant boundary changes. A bit weird.
Also, Labour are fighting for 632 seats
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
I think the latter part is correct. But seats change, safe seats become marginal and marginal ones become safe. And it hasn't actually been a constituency for that long
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
It’s covered in lace, which is one of the traditional industries of Bedfordshire along with hats (Luton), vans and trucks, and clangers ( look it up) .
About 10 years ago we had a woman* as high sheriff who had a very tailored version. Looked brilliant with her sword… I think that one’s in the Higgins museum
*There have been several other women high sheriffs since, but I think the rest of them just wore the same one as the men.
PTK
Paul Kegan
These results are not good for Labour, if you measure success by the number of people you convince to vote for you.
There has not been a huge increase in the Labour vote.
Tamworth Labour votes
2017 16,401
2019 10,908
2023 11,719
Mid-Bedfordshire Labour votes
2017 17,953
2019 14,028
2023 13,872
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Staffordshire South-East turned into Tamworth in 1997. In '96 there was a by-election, Labour won with 60% of the vote (tories on 28.5%). There were only minor boundary changes before the '97 election which Labour won 52-36.7
If the tories recover to the same extent, thats back to a fair sized tory win.
If the tories recover to the same extent, thats back to a fair sized tory win.
prunus
Tick tock.
You need to take turnout into account. Turnout for all parties drops in by-elections (usually) so % of vote is a better indicator.
There may well be a differential drop in turnout across the parties (ie Tory voters being less likely to vote than Labour), but this is very unlikely to be a major factor, hence simple vote counted comparisions are largely moot.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
PTK
Paul Kegan
Your argument seems to be the following:
Many people who would normally vote Labour did not bother to vote this time, but on the other hand, some people who would normally vote Conservative decided to vote Labour instead.
If this is the case, then it would seem that the Starmer-led Labour Party can motivate some habitual Conservative voters to a greater extent than some habitual Labour voters.
The figures suggest to me that it was the failure of Conservative voters to vote that lost that party the election, whereas Labour voters were motivated to get rid of the Conservatives, and therefore were less likely to abstain.
Non-white can’t be working class?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Thought this comment on the YouGov site was interesting following the main party conferences
"By and large however, there is little evidence in the polling data to suggest a significant shift in public opinion post-conference season. While some metrics changed in notable ways, the overall picture looks much the same as it has done for the past year – a significant Labour polling lead, underpinned by the Conservatives failing to convince the public that they offer a better alternative on a raft of key policy issues, a struggling party brand, and increasingly poor personal (and competency) ratings for Rishi Sunak."
"By and large however, there is little evidence in the polling data to suggest a significant shift in public opinion post-conference season. While some metrics changed in notable ways, the overall picture looks much the same as it has done for the past year – a significant Labour polling lead, underpinned by the Conservatives failing to convince the public that they offer a better alternative on a raft of key policy issues, a struggling party brand, and increasingly poor personal (and competency) ratings for Rishi Sunak."
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
On what are you basing this assumption?
I'd say that only do the figures show evidence that the Tory vote stayed at home (at least far more than the Labour vote).
It also makes sense that a Labour vote that was in with a chance of winning would turn out while a depressed Tory vote will stay home, when the party is looking buggered, the candidates are weak and the ex-MPs arseholes. I think the differential drop in turnout was the major factor
I won't say that these seats will definitely go back blue - a depressed Tory vote in the GE is pretty likely IMO - but I'd not be shocked if the Tories regained one or both of these seats.
ETA: And worth noting that in Tamworth the LD and Green vote dropped, while Reform kept their deposit, which UKIP did not manage in 2019
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
They could be bankrupt before the GE.
Green Party 'At Risk of Going Bust' Amid Trans Row Legal Challenge from Former Deputy Leader
The party's accounts suggest there is "significant doubt" about whether it can continue as a "going concern" due to a series of legal challenges.
bylinetimes.com
PTK
Paul Kegan
No. Starmer's party is not trying to get a low turnout. How would you do that? Not campaign? I know for a fact that the Labour Party threw a huge amount of resources into the Mid-Beds by-election. It sent many, many emails to members across the East Region appealing for people to help out, and it had been campaigning even before the election was formally called.
prunus
Tick tock.
Because that's how it usually happens, and in the absence of actual evidence otherwise*, it's just special pleading to claim any 'makes sense' arguments.
* One can't use the numbers as evidence to explain the numbers.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
No it is not. There are loads of (by-)elections where there has been a differential drop in one party or another's vote. Base turnout is one of the key factors in winning elections, that a increase/decrease.in turnout affects all parties equally is utter nonsense.
And you certainly can look at the absolute numbers and try to interpret them - sure we cannot know for sure but the idea that the absolute votes are not evidence is cobblers.
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
Britain First beat the Greens in Tamworth and Reform UK hilariously split the tory vote
prunus
Tick tock.
The way the numbers are is not evidence for the way the numbers are. It's just a statement of itself. You can build hypotheses from it (eg that the labour vote held up (same voters) but the tory vote collapsed), but you then need independent evidence to support that. Can't use the hypothesis-generating data to support the hypothesis.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Reform got more votes than the majority in both seats. If you want one kind of narrative, there's one right there about the potential for the next election to be the Tories fighting two fronts.
Eric Jarvis
Well-Known Member
The Green Party ceased to be fit for purpose when it adopted the Green 2000 plan in 1991. It's been slowly dying ever since.They could be bankrupt before the GE.
Green Party 'At Risk of Going Bust' Amid Trans Row Legal Challenge from Former Deputy Leader
The party's accounts suggest there is "significant doubt" about whether it can continue as a "going concern" due to a series of legal challenges.
Eric Jarvis
Well-Known Member
Some non-white people aren't working class and the Green Party still don't seem interested in their votes.Non-white can’t be working class?
Seems a strange dichotomy to make unless the non-white middle class somehow share the interests of the non-white working class.
Eric Jarvis
Well-Known Member
It's not about me. It's about where the Green Party campaign.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
But (recent) history tells us otherwise; the far-right caving in to the right party of capital.
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