The world is becoming a better place all the time...

[Miss Caphat]

not that there isn't anything to worry about - far from it. But I agree somewhat with the author. I think most of us are unaware of how much life sucked in so many ways for the majority of the entire world's population for so much of our history. Hunger, disease, no health care, poverty, infant & child mortality, short lives, inequality for basically everyone (except nobility), lack of heat and/or exposure to elements & dangers of nature, working all day long every day and then having to live in one room with the rest of your family & animals, incredibly unfair & barbaric laws and punishments, lack of human rights, etc, etc.

 

[LLETSA]

It could be that the improvements some parts of the world have seen are a mere historical blip and that we are all going back to what you describe. The signs are ominous: disastrous climate change (whether man-made or not), which is bound to wreak havoc on whole continents; the planet reaching carrying capacity and the impact on resources that can only become increasingly scarce as a rapidly growing world population tries to industrialise; the hollowing out of Western economies and the inability of governments (or anybody else) to do much about it except keep on inflating economic bubbles that keep resulting in crashes; the possibility of catastrophic natural disasters, of which there have been few during the mere handful of centuries during which we have allegedly become more civilized and the possibilities they open up for mass starvation and disease; the privatisation of violence; the certainty that new technologies will be used to wage war and terrorism as well as improve conditions for some. Etc etc.

 

[Random]

Another development, which people take for granted but military historians are astonished by, is the disappearance of great power war and war between developed countries since the end of World War Two. Now the remnants of war are in the poorer parts of the world and the rich countries seem to have thought better of it.

Thought better of attacking each other he means.

 

[frogwoman]

i wouldnt speak too soon.

 

[LLETSA]

Thought better of attacking each other he means.

And as if this is not certain to change as conditions we can at present only vaguely conceive of come into play.

 

[frogwoman]

When do you think they will come into play?

 

[Random]

Which of the big players will go to war with each other first? The 'core capitalist countries' as an SWP academic put it once. When was even the last proper fight between powerful countries? Serbia doesn't really qualify. Israel-Egypt 1973? Argentina-UK 1982?

 

[LLETSA]

Which of the big players will go to war with each other first? The 'core capitalist countries' as an SWP academic put it once. When was even the last proper fight between powerful countries? Serbia doesn't really qualify. Israel-Egypt 1973? Argentina-UK 1982?

Probably the West and China (and possibly Russia). The 'big players' change their membership all the time.

 

[LLETSA]

When do you think they will come into play?

Who knows? Probably when the realisation sinks in that our way of life crashes when we no longer have the same access to the necessary natural resources.

 

[Random]

Probably the West and China (and possibly Russia). The 'big players' change their membership all the time.

I sued to think that post-USSR Russia was so messed up, in a post-Versailles Germany way, that it would get involved in an expansionist war before too long. Not sure whether the crumbling Russian state could actually pull this off, though. And everyone's still keeping an eye out for Russia as potential enemy no1.

I think now that central Asia, via Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran could be a flash point that pulls China/Russia into a proxy war with 'the west', but not sure what could actually cause a full on direct confrontation.

 

[LLETSA]

I sued to think that post-USSR Russia was so messed up, in a post-Versailles Germany way, that it would get involved in an expansionist war before too long. Not sure whether the crumbling Russian state could actually pull this off, though. And everyone's still keeping an eye out for Russia as potential enemy no1.

I think now that central Asia, via Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran could be a flash point that pulls China/Russia into a proxy war with 'the west', but not sure what could actually cause a full on direct confrontation.

I'm not sure if the Russian state is crumbling anymore. There's been a recovery from the chaos of the Yeltsin years through the usual Russian method of beefing up the state and using it to bring about a national revival. It's still very powerful militarily, and the strong state seems to have mass support, again as is usual in Russia.

It may be that war comes about through conditions we can only dimly perceive at the moment and that the alliances will be different to those we're speculating about. It's a different world to the one we knew 25 years ago and events are moving rapidly. Some people say WW3 actually started some time ago.

 

[Random]

I'm not sure if the Russian state is crumbling anymore. There's been a recovery from the chaos of the Yeltsin years through the usual Russian method of beefing up the state and using it to bring about a national revival. It's still very powerful militarily, and the strong state seems to have mass support, again as is usual in Russia.

Yes, but military spending in Russia is still far less than during the USSR, and it seems that their fleet, airforce and army aren't intended for projecting power any linger, but for keeping order domestically. A change could easily come soon, though - if in the next 15 years the Putin/Medvedev years end, and another strongman inherits the Putin system, but a crisis makes expansionism more attractive. And due to the USA's loss of power in South America and the Middle East an expansionist-minded Russian state would have more places to get fingerholds.

 

[elbows]

Russias best source of power these days are its oil & gas reserves. (no pun intended)

 

[butchersapron]

This seems as good a place as any to post this: the International Institute for Labour Studies - the research arm of the ILO (for those who don't know the ILO is the UNs labour/union agency) publishes a World Work report each year. This years report (pdf warning) contains a social unrest index (p12 onwards roughly) and finds "Social unrest is on the rise, especially in advanced economies...The largest increases took place in advanced economies, with sizeable increases occurring also in Middle East and North Africa and South Asia."

 

[elbows]

This seems as good a place as any to post this: the International Institute for Labour Studies - the research arm of the ILO (for those who don't know the ILO is the UNs labour/union agency) publishes a World Work report each year. This years report (pdf warning) contains a social unrest index (p12 onwards roughly) and finds "Social unrest is on the rise, especially in advanced economies...The largest increases took place in advanced economies, with sizeable increases occurring also in Middle East and North Africa and South Asia."

Yes, I posted a BBC story about this in the global financial meltdown thread the other day, I'll link to it again here as it does indeed seem to counter the premise of this thread nicely.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15519699

 

[Random]

There's not neccessarily a contradiction. The world still may be getting better and better, even though we're going through a global crisis now. As BA said earlier, the improvements show how things could be even better. About a billion people still go to bed hungry iirc.

 

[ska invita]

This seems as good a place as any to post this: the International Institute for Labour Studies - the research arm of the ILO (for those who don't know the ILO is the UNs labour/union agency) publishes a World Work report each year. This years report (pdf warning) contains a social unrest index (p12 onwards roughly) and finds "Social unrest is on the rise, especially in advanced economies...The largest increases took place in advanced economies, with sizeable increases occurring also in Middle East and North Africa and South Asia."

I think peoples expectations and awareness of rights is growing, and thats reflected in the social unrest index < a factor at least < itself part of a more general growth in the possible living standards

 

[LLETSA]

I think peoples expectations and awareness of rights is growing, and thats reflected in the social unrest index < a factor at least < itself part of a more general growth in the possible living standards

On the other hand, it could all amount to early signs of a general breakdown of the kind of conditions the last few generations have become used to and which may be on the way out.

 

[butchersapron]

I think peoples expectations and awareness of rights is growing, and thats reflected in the social unrest index < a factor at least < itself part of a more general growth in the possible living standards

Social unrest in this index does not mean solely protest and so on desire to change things, it means low expectations of decent work and all that this entails, unhappiness, low confidence in ability to change things, falling living standard etc.

 

[ska invita]

I take those points (LLETSA+BA). It's easy on a thread like this to get into a false dichotomy, and Im definitely not saying there's just one side to it.

I do think that the "sizeable increases occurring also in Middle East and North Africa " (Arab Spring) has a lot to do with a growing sense that dictatorship doesn't wash any more - not that it ever really did - but the loss of fear/incredible bravery required to go and face the guns in places like Syria can't be put down just to living standards (aware that there have been food riots around the region) - it seems to me that people expect more, and are prepared to do what it takes to get it, and that's a real factor. Political aspirations are growing.

Supposedly there are thousands of demonstrations and riots in China every year that get little or no coverage. These tend to be explicitly about working conditions, but again, I think in China the cat is out of the bag, and people have a more general growing sense of entitlement, and are prepared to do what it takes to get it. IMO the Chinese CP's days must be numbered - I'd guess 10 years max.

There's also been a trend for regional self-determination (Scotland next?) in recent years, and I think that's connected somehow to this consciousness shift. Hard for me to say how exactly...

The effect of things like technology, communications, growing sense of individualism maybe, in the face of repression, shit living standards etc = the increase in social unrest, or more people struggling to get whats due to them. If you agree that the vast majority of things that have made the world better haven't been given from high, but been won, then this trend of growing social unrest can be seen as the next chapter in that process, and a positive thing.

Things are kicking off a lot more around the world right now, and there have to be factors behind that (paul mason had a good stab at some reasons why < much clearer than in this post of mine)
I guess the danger is that the near future holds so many possible major upheavals that the any net gains are far out-weighed by the possible huge losses that might be incurred by major conflicts arising.

Hope that makes some sense...its late.