The war and "the left" - what do "we" do?

[8ball]

I think you're either underestimating or deliberately playing down the degree to which the Kremlin / Putin (I can't say I'm clear on the distinction just now), is in fact really in control. That, is the worry.

What they did to their big boat is puzzling in this context.

 

[RD2003]

I think you're either underestimating or deliberately playing down the degree to which the Kremlin / Putin (I can't say I'm clear on the distinction just now), is in fact really in control. That, is the worry.

Are the Russians in control? I thought the popular narrative was that Putin's bitten off more than he can chew and it's all going wrong?

 

[8ball]

Are the Russians in control? I thought the popular narrative was that Putin's bitten off more than he can chew and it's all going wrong?

It's clearly not going how he would like, but he's prepared to chuck a lot more at it.

 

[RD2003]

It's clearly not going how he would like, but he's prepared to chuck a lot more at it.

Looks more like reacting to events than being in control, however.

 

[mojo pixy]

What they did to their big boat is puzzling in this context.

Not really, war is messy and shit gets sunk and exploded. But 6000 nukes still say 'control' ... till one gets launched, then the odds change considerably, for us all.

I think the helplessness is visceral, and people will lash out from frustration. It's hard to know how to approach such destruction constructively, I'm sorry fwiw that I'm not doing better. 99 problems, but war ain't one. Yet.

 

[Supine]

Looks more like reacting to events than being in control, however.

Plans rarely work but without a plan you’re surely lost. Famous war quote i think. Putin has a goal and lots of plans which change based on circumstances. Not sure if he has shifted from plan a to plan b yet.

 

[mojo pixy]

Are the Russians in control? I thought the popular narrative was that Putin's bitten off more than he can chew and it's all going wrong?

I'm not really one for the popular narrative.

 

[8ball]

I'm not really one for the popular narrative.

There are lots of unpopular wrong narratives.

 

[mojo pixy]

There are lots of unpopular wrong narratives.

We're all wrong. This is all wrong.

What do we do?

 

[8ball]

Plans rarely work but without a plan you’re surely lost. Famous war quote i think. Putin has a goal and lots of plans which change based on circumstances. Not sure if he has shifted from plan a to plan b yet.

Plan A: drive into Kiev, point a few guns, have tea and cakes -> didn't go to plan.

 

[Supine]

Plan A: drive into Kiev, point a few guns, have tea and cakes -> didn't go to plan.

Probably, but maybe the ultimate goal was to win the sea ports and coast? Maskirovka maybe.

 

[RD2003]

Probably, but maybe the ultimate goal was to win the sea ports and coast? Maskirovka maybe.

That's the problem. Everybody from government level downwards talks as if they know what the aim of the invasion was. As far as I've ever been able to understand, no definitive aim has ever been stated.

 

[hitmouse]

Plan A: drive into Kiev, point a few guns, have tea and cakes -> didn't go to plan.

He's not had much luck getting his bike into Waitrose either.

 

[ska invita]

There is also a chance that fate will conspire against Russia, and the state ends up breaking up. The likely consequences of this hardly bear thinking about.

Overall that sounds good to me - oversized states are a historical anomaly whose time will come one day. Of course its not what you do its the way that you do it...

 

[mojo pixy]

That's the problem. Everybody from government level downwards talks as if they know what the aim of the invasion was. As far as I've ever been able to understand, no definitive aim has ever been stated.

"Denazification", remember?

 

[RD2003]

Overall that sounds good to me - oversized states are a historical anomaly whose time will come one day. Of course its not what you do its the way that you do it...

Although do you fancy, say, civil war, possibly with a ethnic cleansing element, between multiple sides in a fragmenting state bristling with nuclear weapons and, for all we know, badly maintained nuclear power stations and biological/chemical warfare labs etc?

 

[8ball]

That's the problem. Everybody from government level downwards talks as if they know what the aim of the invasion was. As far as I've ever been able to understand, no definitive aim has ever been stated.

Not stated, no. Why would he honestly state it? Looks clear enough to me that he’s trying to grab as much of Ukraine as he can, and there are a bunch of pre-planned if-then’s in the script and a certain amount done on the hoof, with a good bit of extra ad hoc modification as it becomes clear that what he is told doesn’t always match the facts on the ground.

 

[RD2003]

"Denazification", remember?

I do remember denazification and demilitarisation, but no statement about what the ultimate aim on the ground is.

 

[RD2003]

Not stated, no. Why would he honestly state it? Looks clear enough to me that he’s trying to grab as much of Ukraine as he can, and there are a bunch of pre-planned if-then’s in the script and a certain amount done on the hoof, with a good bit of extra ad hoc modification as it becomes clear that what he is told doesn’t always match the facts on the ground.

I know, but the popuar narrative, as I said, seems to be that they wanted to seize Kiev and replace the government despite the lack of any actual statement of that aim by the Russians.

 

[mojo pixy]

I do remember denazification and demilitarisation, but no statement about what the ultimate aim on the ground is.

Why express specific aims on the ground, when you could just keep everyone wondering? And all options open obvs.

Plus, "denazification"? That's the number 1 actually stated pretext so I expect it's worth considering what that means, where it might go, and how it might grow with the help of a veritable army of online conspiraloons, red-brown classless numpties and 'apolitical' libertarians giving succour and support.

 

[8ball]

I know, but the popuar narrative, as I said, seems to be that they wanted to seize Kiev and replace the government despite the lack of any actual statement of that aim by the Russians.

I’m sure they would be happy with that.

 

[RD2003]

Why express specific aims on the ground, when you could just keep everyone wondering? And all options open obvs.

Plus, "denazification"? That's the number 1 actually stated pretext so I expect it's worth considering what that means, where it might go, and how it might grow with the help of a veritable army of online conspiraloons, red-brown classless numpties and 'apolitical' libertarians giving succour and support.

Giving it succour how exactly? What are they dissuading their fellow keyboard warriors on the opposing side from doing?

And giving it support how exactly except in words-which, of course, have no material effect?

The online world is not the entire world.

 

[RD2003]

I’m sure they would be happy with that.

They would, but the point is that we don't know if it actually was the aim.

 

[strung out]

I know, but the popuar narrative, as I said, seems to be that they wanted to seize Kiev and replace the government despite the lack of any actual statement of that aim by the Russians.

We can surmise what their aims were from the actions they took.

We also know they didn't achieve those aims, and we know that losing up to 25% of their military force was a catastrophic disaster for them, significantly damaging their chances of achieving their secondary aims, after the Kyiv assault failed so completely.

Cleverer people than you worked this out ages ago.

 

[RD2003]

We can surmise what their aims were from the actions they took.

We also know they didn't achieve those aims, and we know that losing up to 25% of their military force was a catastrophic disaster for them, significantly damaging their chances of achieving their secondary aims, after the Kyiv assault failed so completely.

Cleverer people than you worked this out ages ago.

Actually, you can't. Cleverer people than you have speculated that the apparent move on Kiev could have been purely aimed at destroying infrastructure and weakening the Ukrainian military in readiness for completing its aims for the Donbass region and so on. I don't know what the thnking is, and neither do you or anybody else.

As for Russian military losses, the Russian state has never worried much about these if it believes it still has forces in reserve.

 

[zahir]

Discussion with Syrian and Ukrainian activists. Some of it is in Ukrainian but has been translated in the transcript.



Transcript: Our Wounds Are Bridges

In terms of building international solidarity, we need to be doing the very difficult work of tackling these nonsensical narratives. There’s more to the story than that. You cannot use your anti-American and anti-NATO sentiments to justify denying weapons to Ukrainians to defend themselves, or Syrians for that matter. It doesn’t make sense. There were a couple of cases of trade unionists in Greece and Italy refusing to load weapons that were directed to Ukraine, and it was paraded as some sort of heroic deed because they were risking their jobs. You know what? Keep your jobs. We don’t need solidarity like that.

Last Saturday, there was a demo organized by Ukraine Solidarity Campaign, which I am a part of, and I am also a part of Sotsialny Rukh together with Taras. There was a demo in London with the support of the biggest unions in the country, supported by Sotsialny Rukh from Ukraine, and supported by the Confederation of Free Trade Unions of Ukraine—all the texts and the slogans were agreed. And the attacks that we saw from so-called leftists on social media and in their own publications have been absolutely outrageous. These workers don’t have the ideas you would like them to have so you will not defend them? It really is quite something else.

I’d like to react to what Yassin said, that you don’t have to try and convince Western anti-imperialists who keep writing silly texts. I disagree. To a certain extent, yes, we’re not able to change everybody’s opinion. But in Ukraine, the leftwing is quite a bit more generalized. One of the reasons I wrote that letter to the Western left was because I believe that we have to fight capitalism, and global socialist movements should be the ones who do that. There is a huge responsibility on the Western left. We have to do something with these idiots so that they understand something. We are weak here, but they are the biggest audience that our words matter to.

 

[strung out]

Actually, you can't. Cleverer people than you have speculated that the apparent move on Kiev could have been purely aimed at destroying infrastructure and weakening the Ukrainian military in readiness for completing its aims for the Donbass region and so on. I don't know what the thnking is, and neither do you or anybody else.

As for Russian military losses, the Russian state has never worried much about these if it believes it still has forces in reserve.

Clueless.

 

[RD2003]

Clueless.

Maybe, but at least I don't pretend to know exactly what's going on in a distant war zone.

Your certainty is merely wishful thinking dressed up as special insight.

 

[strung out]

Maybe, but at least I don't pretend to know exactly what's going on in a distant war zone.

Your certainty is merely wishful thinking dressed up as special insight.

Nobody knows exactly what's going on, but by reading primary accounts, examining open source information, listening to opinions from a range of military and Eastern European experts, it's possible to form educated views on what has happened so far, and what the possible/likely outcomes are from here.

Some of those possible outcomes are an unlikely Russian military victory, but many experts with far more knowledge than you are taking the view that the Ukrainians forcing Russian forces out of occupied territories is not only likely, but an inevitability over the coming months.

Your views are not only grimly nihilistic and defeatist, it's clear that they're not rooted in any of the actual evidence, objective reality or credible expert analysis out there.

 

[RD2003]

Nobody knows exactly what's going on, but by reading primary accounts, examining open source information, listening to opinions from a range of military and Eastern European experts, it's possible to form educated views on what has happened so far, and what the possible/likely outcomes are from here.

Some of those possible outcomes are an unlikely Russian military victory, but many experts with far more knowledge than you are taking the view that the Ukrainians forcing Russian forces out of occupied territories is not only likely, but an inevitability over the coming months.

Your views are not only grimly nihilistic and defeatist, it's clear that they're not rooted in any of the actual evidence, objective reality or credible expert analysis out there.

How can my views be defeatist when I'm neither a combatant nor a victim of the invasion? And neither are you or anybody else on here. Grimly nihilistic maybe, but I long ago came to the conclusion that the world is not a nice place and that things rarely turn out like you want. In fact it's a bit of a fucking cesspit.

I have read a lot of what you've probably read about the war. And like you-and like many of the experts (whose conclusions are also inevitably coloured by their political views and prejudices)-I still can't possibly know either what the exact Russian war aims are nor what will (as opposed to might) happen.