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But the Arab uprisings momentarily broke that comfortably unpopular approach to foreign policy, as suddenly frightened regimes had to more seriously weigh the potential costs of popular challenges. The renewed disregard for public anger against Trump is a potent example of how many Arab leaders now believe that the threat of popular revolts has passed and that they can revert to pre-uprising practices. It is no accident, then, that the regional order has begun to resemble that of the 2000s, when most Arab regimes cooperated with the Bush administration on counter-terrorism and confronting Iran, despite public displeasure over the war on terror, the occupation of Iraq, and U.S. support for Israel.
That pre-uprisings foreign policy had costs, though. Protests against the Iraq war and in favor of the second Palestinian intifada laid the foundations for the domestic protest movements that would evolve during the first decade of the century into domestic challenges. Contempt for official Arab impotence contributed to the broader crisis of legitimacy afflicting most Arab regimes.
Anger over the Trump immigration order will not alone spark new uprisings, but the return to traditional Arab foreign policy patterns will contribute to ever-growing popular anger. The security of most regimes is largely illusory in the face of rapidly accumulating economic and political discontent and the diminishing returns of repression. The new autocracies are still on high alert, ruthlessly policing dissent and forcefully repressing any signs of protest. Trump is counting on the ability of these regimes to keep their publics under control, but is likely to only to make their problems worse.
There is one other element of the immigration order worth considering.
The anger over Trump’s order was offset somewhat by the considerable attention to the anti-Trump airport protests. The protests were widely described as the best face of America, offering a potent counterpoint to a hostile White House. To be sure, pro-regime voices echoed conspiracy theories familiar from American conservative circles, such as questioning whether the airport protests were organized by the Muslim Brotherhood. But the size, diversity, and empathy of the airport demonstrations, the volunteer legal support offered to threatened immigrants, and the outpouring of critical commentary elicited perhaps the most positive views of America in a long time. That, if nothing else, offers some hope.
