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The Trump presidency

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On TAC Stephen Walt on the Coming Trump Train Wreck
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Walt goes on to point out that Trump’s approach to China so far (picking fights over the South China Sea while withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multi-lateral trade pact designed to counter China economically), seems destined to weaken America’s position and strengthen China’s, while his failure to articulate a clear strategy towards Russia has kept alive suspicions that his overtures are driven by a corrupt bargain rather than a view of the national interest. His conclusion:

So where does this leave us? Way too soon to tell, but I’ll hazard two guesses. First, foreign and defense policies are going to be a train wreck, because they don’t have enough good people in place, the people they have appointed don’t agree on some pretty big issues (e.g., NATO), the foreign-policy “blob” will undercut them at every turn, and Trump himself lacks the discipline or strategic vision to manage this process and may not care to try. Even if you agree with his broad approach, his team is going to make a lot more rookie mistakes before they figure out what they are doing.

Second, get ready for a lot of unexpected developments and unintended consequences. If the United States is giving up its self-appointed role as the “indispensable nation” and opting instead for “America First,” a lot of other countries will have to rethink their policies, alignments, and commitments. Unraveling a long-standing order is rarely a pretty process, especially when it happens quickly and is driven not by optimism but by anger, fear, and resentment. I’ve long favored a more restrained U.S. grand strategy, but I also believed that that process had to be done carefully and above all strategically. That doesn’t appear to be President Trump’s approach to anything, which means we are in for a very bumpy ride to an unknown destination.​

I wholeheartedly agree. And I’m listening closely to see whether other self-described advocates of realism and restraint join the chorus of opposition, or continue to delude themselves that Trump is a useful vehicle for their perspective.
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It's just the pure up themselves tendency to incompetence that's likely to blow up their and the world's faces.

The neocons were also deluded but Bush's was at least a fairly capable team when it came to working The Hill. Rather too capable in the case of Cheney.
 
Apparently Trump is convinced there was voter fraud because the golfer Bernhard Langer told him about it...
WASHINGTON — On Monday, President Trump gathered House and Senate leaders in the State Dining Room for a get-to-know-you reception and quickly launched into a story meant to illustrate what he believes to be rampant, unchecked voter fraud.

Mr. Trump kicked off the meeting, participants said, by retelling his debunked claim that he would have won the popular vote if not for the three million to five million ballots cast by “illegals.” He followed it up with a Twitter post early Wednesday calling for a major investigation into voter fraud.

When one of the Democrats protested, Mr. Trump said he was told a story by “the very famous golfer, Bernhard Langer,” whom he described as a friend, according to three staff members who were in the room for the meeting.
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Source: NYT
 
...these figures are quite interesting....are the supposed seismic implications ( for the US ) of a trade-war between China & / or Mexico being over-done & if so presumably the same is true of any supposed upside from protectionist trade policy


 
hot air baboon said:
...these figures are quite interesting....are the supposed seismic implications ( for the US ) of a trade-war between China & / or Mexico being over-done & if so presumably the same is true of any supposed upside from protectionist trade policy


Click to expand...

Not sure what that signifies really. Most goods made in the US are made from other things also made in the US. What does that mean for trade wars? Lots of other figures are needed to form a picture of trade. What proportion of all goods are made elsewhere? What proportion of US goods are exported? What kind of thing is imported and what kind of thing is exported? Do these figures include all inputs - do they include things designed in the US then manufactured elsewhere, for instance? How do you put a percentage on the design aspect of manufacture? How about the things used to make the things sold - factory equipment, tools, etc? Where are they made? Where does the fuel used in the manufacture come from?
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Not sure what that signifies really. Most goods made in the US are made from other things also made in the US. What does that mean for trade wars? Lots of other figures are needed to form a picture of trade. What proportion of all goods are made elsewhere? What proportion of US goods are exported? What kind of thing is imported and what kind of thing is exported? Do these figures include all inputs - do they include things designed in the US then manufactured elsewhere, for instance? How do you put a percentage on the design aspect of manufacture? How about the things used to make the things sold - factory equipment, tools, etc? Where are they made? Where does the fuel used in the manufacture come from?
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(((hot air baboon))) :(
 
Pickman's model said:
(((hot air baboon))) :(
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...aw...thanks... :D

I'm not sure either tbh...although the US seems to be getting increasingly self-sufficient in energy for example according to stuff I've read

BP Energy Outlook: United States “Likely” to be Self-Sufficient in Oil by 2030s - Oil & Gas 360

it surely must include capital & consumer goods together & as its a measure as % of GDP presumably we can impute the value of the trade - if the relatively small % of stuff from China was actually diamond encrusted fusion generators that would show as a bigger percentage !?

imports of final goods from China = 1.2% of GDP did seem quite low as I'd always thought the scale of the trade and flow of dollars to China accounted for most the US debt being financed & the narrative hitherto has been couched in terms of these 2 massively inter-twined economies... ( shrugs )
 
" a bunch of Saudis..." bin laden was a Saudi, was Saudi funded and he was behindcthe attacks on the world trade centre.
 
hot air baboon said:
...these figures are quite interesting....are the supposed seismic implications ( for the US ) of a trade-war between China & / or Mexico being over-done & if so presumably the same is true of any supposed upside from protectionist trade policy


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Ok, I've clicked on the link and that clears it up. This includes services. So US streets are being cleaned by US people. And people in the US are getting haircuts from other US people. That's included in 'Made in US from US parts'. The chart didn't make that clear.
 
hot air baboon said:
I'm not sure either tbh...although the US seems to be getting increasingly self-sufficient in energy for example according to stuff I've read
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I have assumed that traditionally the US was interested not just in securing oil etc for itself, but also in the global energy scene, including securing supply for favoured regions such as Europe but also keeping the entire 'global' system & capitals interests ticking over, growing, etc.

Domestic self-sufficiency still matters and changes some political and economic equations, but I wouldnt stretch it's implications too far unless we really do end up in a world where isolationist rhetoric actually becomes reality. Certainly the apparently rosy medium-term energy outlook for North America could further convince some who hold isolationist dreams dear that they could really make it work. And there is quite the contrast with the UK that appears to be going on a Brexit adventure at a time when our North Sea fossil fuel resources have become depleted and production rates are hugely down from their peak. And it goes without saying that we didnt stick a big chunk of the oil & gas wealth into a sovereign wealth fund that would come in handy right now.
 
elbows said:
. And it goes without saying that we didnt stick a big chunk of the oil & gas wealth into a sovereign wealth fund that would come in handy right now.
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Even if they had they'd have just bailed more banks out with it . Can't believe they're still banging on with this Trident bollocks while people are living on food banks . Insanity and vanity . Like Louis the 14th on crack .
 
Tonight's news is just ....... amazing......been watching CNN...
Millions of voting corpses ... Palestinians freaking over Jerusalem.....Chinese pissing themselves over being made head honcho over TTP. With zero effort on their part...even the mexicans wanting to get squeezy with them...after its prez who walked away after getting in a Willie waving contest with the orange one ....
Mays due to land with her security detail wondering whether she'll get pussy grabbed or waterboarded on landing .....
Former mex prez sez ..pay for that wall " no fucking way".. Trump is Hitler...
Godwin's on steriods

All between 1 advert break
 
Tankus said:
Tonight's news is just ....... amazing......been watching CNN...
Millions of voting corpses ... Palestinians freaking over Jerusalem.....Chinese pissing themselves over being made head honcho over TTP. With zero effort on their part...even the mexicans wanting to get squeezy with them...after its prez who walked away after getting in a Willie waving contest with the orange one ....
Mays due to land with her security detail wondering whether she'll get pussy grabbed or waterboarded on landing .....
Former mex prez sez ..pay for that wall " no fucking way".. Trump is Hitler...
Godwin's on steriods

All between 1 advert break
Click to expand...
It's the fall of the ussr all over again
 
I wasn't that worried watching a drunk Yeltsin dance on a tank......

I thought that trump would be a straight forward impeachment over some dodgy finance deal....in a few months.....

But after tonight ....I actually have butterflies in my stomach and a deep feeling unease

It's finally sunk in
 
It is fascinating and horrifying to watch, for the first time in my memory, a Western government that is not even going to insincerely pay lip service to giving a shit about women, people of colour, poor people, people with physical or mental illnesses or people with disabilities etc. They're not even bothering to pretend that they care.
 
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