The next coalition government

[brogdale]

Today the Guardian's poll prediction puts the combined Lab+SNP seat total at 324. A significant figure; assuming that the Shinners maintain their policy of non-attendance, the actual, working figure for majority is 323, not 326.

The same poll prediction has the vermin, collaborators and fruit-cakes combined tally falling almost 20 seats short of that figure.

(also posted in the GE predictions thread)

 

[brogdale]

Same (Guardian) poll predictor has LabSnp on 326 today. That's the first time that they've got to the formal majority number of seats, but as we now know that's some 5 seats higher than a real, working majority number.

I'm assuming that the change between Friday and today largely results from Ashcroft's marginal numbers being factored into the mix. It's possible to see why the vermin are starting to look like cornered, injured beasts...

Meanwhile the combined Tory-Lib Dem share has dropped below 300 seats, and even by coopting all possible sources of support (Ukip’s four seats and the DUP’s nine), David Cameron is - as things stand - well short of the bare minimum he would need to win a confidence vote in parliament.

 

[brogdale]

Thought that this might promote some debate. On first reading much of this analysis looks quite credible, but I'm open to correction.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourki...coup-and-labour-is-doing-nothing-to-stop-them

....the papers are not just preparing for the 7th of May, but also for the following week.

 

[danny la rouge]

Thought that this might promote some debate. On first reading much of this analysis looks quite credible, but I'm open to correction.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourki...coup-and-labour-is-doing-nothing-to-stop-them

We've already discussed this article. I think it's pretty much correct.

 

[brogdale]

We've already discussed this article.

Where was I? Oh lordy, it wasn't on my 'Mount Gay Extra Old' night, was it?

 

[danny la rouge]

Where was I? Oh lordy, it wasn't on my 'Mount Gay Extra Old' night, was it?

It was in this thread:

http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/general-election-2015.333556/page-6#post-13821789

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

i think the next coalition will be Left Unity/Classwar/TUSC/UKIP with Mark Anthony France being Foreign Sec and envoy to ISIS and Felicity Dowling as Minister for Safe Spaces

 

[brogdale]

 

[danny la rouge]

I didn't think he'd come round to that way of thinking. Who is he saying Lib Dems should vote for instead of Lib Dem, then?

 

[Corax]

Lab-SNP is the most attractive current option for me personally - but fuck me is that going to give the tories a whacking big stick to beat them with for 5 years. One etched with words like 'undemocractic' and 'unconstitutional'...

 

[belboid]

Lab-SNP is the most attractive current option for me personally - but fuck me is that going to give the tories a whacking big stick to beat them with for 5 years. One etched with words like 'undemocractic' and 'unconstitutional'...

you can only really use those words in that context if you dont understand what they mean

 

[danny la rouge]

you can only really use those words in that context if you dont understand what they mean

What does Corax mean?

 

[bi0boy]

Lab-SNP is the most attractive current option for me personally - but fuck me is that going to give the tories a whacking big stick to beat them with for 5 years. One etched with words like 'undemocractic' and 'unconstitutional'...

Boris to get 100+ seat majority in 2020, and probably much earlier as I don't think a Lab-SNP government will have enough seats to last that long.

 

[Corax]

you can only really use those words in that context if you dont understand what they mean

Well yes, but they'll use them anyway, for purely propagandist/media purposes.

What does Corax mean?

It's the Latin name for a Raven.

 

[killer b]

Boris to get 100+ seat majority in 2020, and probably much earlier as I don't think a Lab-SNP government will have enough seats to last that long.

Johnson. You aren't his mate. Or are you?

 

[danny la rouge]

Well yes, but they'll use them anyway, for purely propagandist/media purposes.

It's the Latin name for a Raven.

What was the meaning of your post.

 

[brogdale]

Not really helpful when 'professional' politicians muddy the waters with ill-informed shite like this..

7m ago20:30

The former Labour first minister Jack McConnell has said that Miliband will struggle to form a government if Labour is not the biggest party. Lord McConnell told BBC Newsnight that if David Cameron wins more seats, even without a majority, “the public perception will be that he has won” and “anyone who tries to get around that, to get a deal to get a different PM, will be in trouble.”

Even if Cameron was to lose a few seats, if he still has a few seats more than Labour then public perception will be that he has won. Therefore the SNP argument that everybody else could gang up on him will not work.

If we get to Friday morning and the sitting prime minister who is in Number 10 has won more seats than anyone else he will automatically get the first go and the public will expect him to do that.

Even if the vermin got less seats than Labour, in the context of a hung parliament, cameron would be given first chance to put a QS to demonstrate that he could command the confidence of the house.

 

[brogdale]

What Miliband will have to do is make sure that the anti-tory forces can be marshalled to vote down that first QS. That's why his anti SNP stance is dumb...he'll need them on board within two weeks of May 7th.

 

[brogdale]

There's a good chance that this is the usual Telegraph hysteria..but this report does raise an interesting question.

Mr Miliband’s team have sought advice over whether it would be possible to force Mr Cameron out of office with an immediate vote of no confidence when the new Parliament meets for the first time after the election.

Their aim would be to deny Mr Cameron the chance to build support from minor parties and before announcing his Queen's Speech, which is not scheduled to take place until May 27.

Hmmm...have to admit I hadn't considered that; kill the vermin with an immediate VoC. Interesting.

 

[brogdale]

Meanwhile...the vermin are beginning to articulate exactly what many of us here have rumbled as their May 8th strategy...

Last night, the Tory strategy for Friday morning emerged, David Cameron will declare victory on Friday if he has most votes and seats and cast a Labour led government as illegitimate, The Tories will say

‘We’re legitimate, we’re the largest party, we should carry on.’ If necessary, dare the others to vote down a Conservative government.

“We’ll bring forward a vote of confidence on our Queen’s speech so they do the deed in plain sight, rather than meekly saying, ‘I suppose your numbers add up, goodbye’.”

Another senior figure added: “We will get into the legitimacy argument pretty quickly. We just don’t think the public will put up with Labour doing deals to win from behind.”

I’d expect more hyperbolic members of the Tory party and the media to publicly accuse a Labour led government of being illegitimate, Ed is a usurper and even accuse of him conducting a coup d’état, Boris Johnson has upped the ante, by describing a Labour/SNP alliance as “Ajockalypse Now.”

The polling also backs up the Tory position, the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found that, “If Con has most seats, but could be forced out by Lab+SNP, by 40-32% voters say Con minority government should have chance to govern” and “Who should rule? By 43-29% voters think party with most votes has a better claim to government than one with most seats.”

I think this is a plan by Dave to entrap Miliband, to ensure Ed Miliband’s comments in the above video from Thursday’s Question Time are shown to be a lie, and thus damage his Premiership from the very start, as Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems have found out, breaking a very public pledge when taking office, can damage you enormously short and long term.

 

[brogdale]

This “Ajockalypse Now.” legitimacy debate from the vermin has the potential to considerably accelerate the nationalists prospects of a 'fast-track' Indyref II. I can imagine how it will play out in Scots public opinion if the putative government (or opposition) of the UK declare the settled (electoral) will of the Scottish electorate as illegitimate.

Sturgeon would need no other programme to clean sweep the 2016 Holyrood election on the basis of another Ref. The vermin are playing with fire here.

 

[William of Walworth]

It'd be mildly funny if Labour get just 1 more seat than the Tories (perfectly possible, and are ahead by 0.02% or so and also ahead by under 50,000 votes overall.

 

[brogdale]

If the Economist can see through the vermin's tactic it must be pretty shite...

 

[Corax]

What was the meaning of your post.

Which one? I've made just under 36k.

 

[brogdale]

Good to see licence-payers are getting such 'ahead of the curve' analysis for their money.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

Miliband made a strategic mistake on Thursday night by categorically ruling out any deal with the SNP. Either it leads him not to become PM, or it dooms his time in office by tagging him as a liar (a bit like how the Lib Dems were constantly berated for their breaking of the tuition fees 'pledge'.)

 

[FiFi]

How difficult would it be to say to the press "we will talk to/deal with whoever the British people
Instruct us to".

I, for one, am sick to the back teeth of being told by over-entitled public school boys that theirs is the only opinion that counts for anything in politics. And I count the press and the politicians in that statement.

 

[andysays]

He seems to think that he can form a govt without even talking to the SNP (or anyone else?)

Election 2015 live: Miliband suggests he won't even talk to SNP about Labour's plans

Not sure if that's very brave or very foolish...

 

[ViolentPanda]

Miliband made a strategic mistake on Thursday night by categorically ruling out any deal with the SNP. Either it leads him not to become PM, or it dooms his time in office by tagging him as a liar (a bit like how the Lib Dems were constantly berated for their breaking of the tuition fees 'pledge'.)

Unless Miliband is relying on sophistry - "I will categorically not make any deal with the SNP" being a nod and a wink to his minions to do so.
Nah, I know he's not Iain Duncan Smith-level stupid!

 

[andysays]

It looks like the battle of what the constitution really means about who can form a government in the case of hung parliament is getting going in preparation for the post-election period.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed.

The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons.

There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock...

...The warnings are a response to briefings coming from Downing Street that Labour will have no legitimacy to form a government if it has secured fewer seats than Cameron, and should let through a Tory Queen’s Speech possibly with the support of the Liberal Democrats...

...There is clearly a fear in Labour circles that Cameron intends to stay in Downing Street not just to see if he can form a majority government with the Liberal Democrats and Democratic Unionists, but also to prosecute a claim that an alternative minority Labour government would have no legitimacy.

There is concern that the prime minister will not quit even if it is clear he could not secure a Commons majority in a Queen’s Speech that must be held by 4 June.

This could get messy...