The Conservative and Unionist Party's time is up

[Pickman's model]

It's happened with Hague - he has this reputation of not being 'alright, for a Tory'.

indeed. he's not alright for a tory, he's a miserable excuse for a human being

 

[Idris2002]

indeed. he's not alright for a tory, he's a miserable excuse for a human being

Hague I remember as always smiling.

Duncan Smith resembled a reanimated corpse.

With regard to the general thread - the British ruling class has been fully globalised, thanks to the triumph of its finance capital wing. That means it no longer needs a mass party that has deep roots within the middle classes and some fractions of the working class, and which it needed in the past to stabilise and guarantee its rule.

That search for stability was what was behind the "property owning democracy" idea which dated back to the 1930s. Give the "little people" their own little stakes in the private property game, and the bigger Cult of Mammon can continue unabated. Now that the Mammon God has taken himself off to a new level, the old rules don't apply.

I can't remember where I read it, but I do remember reading a comment that said that places like Eton used to teach some kind of concept of "duty" to their students, which was why so many of them went over the top in 1914 and got machine-gunned like everyone else. The fact that it is utterly impossible to imagine the likes of Johnson doing something like tells its own story, I think.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hague I remember as always smiling.

Duncan Smith resembled a reanimated corpse.

With regard to the general thread - the British ruling class has been fully globalised, thanks to the triumph of its finance capital wing. That means it no longer needs a mass party that has deep roots within the middle classes and some fractions of the working class, and which it needed in the past to stabilise and guarantee its rule.

That search for stability was what was behind the "property owning democracy" idea which dated back to the 1930s. Give the "little people" their own little stakes in the private property game, and the bigger Cult of Mammon can continue unabated. Now that the Mammon God has taken himself off to a new level, the old rules don't apply.

I can't remember where I read it, but I do remember reading a comment that said that places like Eton used to teach some kind of concept of "duty" to their students, which was why so many of them went over the top in 1914 and got machine-gunned like everyone else. The fact that it is utterly impossible to imagine the likes of Johnson doing something like tells its own story, I think.

i don't think the trench ladders were built with someone like johnson in mind.

 

[Idris2002]

i don't think the trench ladders were built with someone like johnson in mind.

He's more the regimental mascot type, really.

 

[SysOut]

He's more the regimental mascot type, really.

Officers' mess ?

 

[Elpenor]

Hague I remember as always smiling.

Duncan Smith resembled a reanimated corpse.

With regard to the general thread - the British ruling class has been fully globalised, thanks to the triumph of its finance capital wing. That means it no longer needs a mass party that has deep roots within the middle classes and some fractions of the working class, and which it needed in the past to stabilise and guarantee its rule.

That search for stability was what was behind the "property owning democracy" idea which dated back to the 1930s. Give the "little people" their own little stakes in the private property game, and the bigger Cult of Mammon can continue unabated. Now that the Mammon God has taken himself off to a new level, the old rules don't apply.

I can't remember where I read it, but I do remember reading a comment that said that places like Eton used to teach some kind of concept of "duty" to their students, which was why so many of them went over the top in 1914 and got machine-gunned like everyone else. The fact that it is utterly impossible to imagine the likes of Johnson doing something like tells its own story, I think.

And to extend that point, IIRC it was said that the MPs / cabinet ministers who had fought during WW2 “got” the need for a welfare state having served with the working classes etc

Perhaps a generalisation though.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think the tory party is in a far worse state than it was in 1992 -97. Major and co were mired in sleaze and had their fare share of fuck ups. Black Wednesday seriously harmed their image of competence and their were riven with divisions over Europe. However, the government was generally pragmatic rather than driven by dogma and the economy by 1997 was in a reasonable state - mass unemployment was no longer as severe as it had been throughout the 80s. Although education and the NHS were underfunded, I don't recall there being the same sense of fragility and crises around public services and society generally. Certainty there were no food banks or the severity of poverty we see today.

They still got hammered in the election. But the present gang have fucked up on a far greater scale and have far less time to recover.

Now we have a government that has been hijacked by a swivel eyed cult. The recent budget was most spectacular economic and political fuck up of any government in British history - and was driven by extremist, hateful reasons that most people in the country are disgusted by. People are demonstrably poorer than they were in 2010, wages are lower, hours are longer, the number of people in or close to destitution is probably as bad as it has been since before WW2. And the NHS in particular is in a critical condition. Brexit has devoured the tory party. Major looks like a political titan compared to Truss.

You can absolutely see the fracture line in the party- its the freidmanite, brexit ultras vs everyone else. The former have ditched the reality based approach of Osbourne and Cameron (and may) in favour of the year zero sociopathy of "Britannia unchained" . Thatcher and her ilk certainly bought into this dogma - but (until she lost the plot with the poll tax) had the political nous to align it with what people would actually vote for and what was politically achievable - and (after getting their fingers burnt in the early years) it was closely aligned with what the markets would support.
I could certainly see the headbangers splitting from the rest - and - as we saw in 2010 -2015 - the lib dems are not that far away politically from the non-lunatic party of the tories.

If you were moulding political parties from scratch (under PR perhaps) you could easily have a big space for pro-market/socially liberal party (lib dem/non loon con) alongside a vaguely social democratic labour with tory loons/brexit party on the right fringe and socialist/green party/parties on the left. vote share would probably be (left to right) 15 - 20/ 30-40/ 30-40/ 15-20.

The Tory party in its current form looks unsustainable to me. They have utterly lost the plot.

 

[agricola]

I think the tory party is in a far worse state than it was in 1992 -97. Major and co were mired in sleaze and had their fare share of fuck ups. Black Wednesday seriously harmed their image of competence and their were riven with divisions over Europe. However, the government was generally pragmatic rather than driven by dogma and the economy by 1997 was in a reasonable state - mass unemployment was no longer as severe as it had been throughout the 80s. Although education and the NHS were underfunded, I don't recall there being the same sense of fragility and crises around public services and society generally. Certainty there were no food banks or the severity of poverty we see today.

They still got hammered in the election. But the present gang have fucked up on a far greater scale and have far less time to recover.

Now we have a government that has been hijacked by a swivel eyed cult. The recent budget was most spectacular economic and political fuck up of any government in British history - and was driven by extremist, hateful reasons that most people in the country are disgusted by. People are demonstrably poorer than they were in 2010, wages are lower, hours are longer, the number of people in or close to destitution is probably as bad as it has been since before WW2. And the NHS in particular is in a critical condition. Brexit has devoured the tory party. Major looks like a political titan compared to Truss.

You can absolutely see the fracture line in the party- its the freidmanite, brexit ultras vs everyone else. The former have ditched the reality based approach of Osbourne and Cameron (and may) in favour of the year zero sociopathy of "Britannia unchained" . Thatcher and her ilk certainly bought into this dogma - but (until she lost the plot with the poll tax) had the political nous to align it with what people would actually vote for and what was politically achievable - and (after getting their fingers burnt in the early years) it was closely aligned with what the markets would support.
I could certainly see the headbangers splitting from the rest - and - as we saw in 2010 -2015 - the lib dems are not that far away politically from the non-lunatic party of the tories.

If you were moulding political parties from scratch (under PR perhaps) you could easily have a big space for pro-market/socially liberal party (lib dem/non loon con) alongside a vaguely social democratic labour with tory loons/brexit party on the right fringe and socialist/green party/parties on the left. vote share would probably be (left to right) 15 - 20/ 30-40/ 30-40/ 15-20.

The Tory party in its current form looks unsustainable to me. They have utterly lost the plot.

TBF the Major government only really got into trouble over ideological things - Europe as you say, but also the disaster that was rail privatization and the sell-off of defence housing (neither of which were things Thatcher did). The sleaze allegations almost look quaint nowadays, and of course a big difference between then and now is that people actually faced consequences when the scandals broke.

Of course being so weak (in Parliament) it did force it to behave pragmatically and its certainly possible to make an argument that it was the least bad government since 1979 - which is setting a low bar, I know.

 

[Leighsw2]

I think the context for the 90s/00s is that there was continuous economic growth after Black Wednesday in 1992 when sterling exited ERM and interest rates fell with levels of unemployment and inflation that were a lot lower than the 70s and 80s. The so-called miraculous 'end to boom and bust' that provided a golden hello to the Blair government in 1997. Also, Labour's embrace of neo-liberalism meant the Tories didn't have to move very far ideologically after 1997, it was a case of biding their time and decontaminating their brand (though it took four leaders to get to that point.)

The inheritance for Labour in 2024 will be far from golden and I think they're likely to struggle. The issue for the Tories is not whether they collapse or disappear but what kind of party they'll morph into in opposition when up against a weak centrist Labour government. Judging from the US (or, for that matter, Italy) I think we can guess what kind of party that will be.

 

[xenon]

Of course. They'll have to change their leadership election procedures to eliminate the populist and the vacuous.
Brexit really damaged the party; many key people just left (retired).

Damaged them so badly in fact, they won the last 2 elections and the most recent of those, with a landslide.

Sure, a load of remain minded Tories left but so what. The party survived and won.

The Tories have actually more room to manoever in terms of changing, tacking towards the centre again if necessary, once this lot are flushed through and perhaps sitting out til 2029.

 

[redsquirrel]

There are ways that it could come about without a major expansion of the electorate. Large scale defections of Tory MPs, or a certain set of disastrous politicial conditions that result in the Lib Dems getting more votes than the Tories. Excessive pandering to the Brexit extremists causing their backers to shift to a Party viewed more beneficial to international capital. Being beaten by the Lib Dems even once would be enough to permanently break the Tories default role in the 2 Party system.

I find it strange that you can imagine a proletarian revolution despite all the institutional and cultural factors hindering that, but the far more modest scenario of the Tories fucking up so badly that the Lib Dems get more votes than them even once is unthinkable.

The fact that I think it is necessary, and possible, for a revolution to bring about a fundamental change our political system does not mean that I think think it is likely on either the short or medium term.

Your predictions of large scale defections from the Tories to LDs are as realistic as your prediction that the turnout in 2017 was going to break 80% (actual turnout 68.8%). It shows a deep lack of understanding of the party political system in this country.
BTW is the below still on the cards?

Labour could win by winning over Green and SNP voters, but God forbid they ever consider losing votes to anyone but the Tories a problem that needs to be solved.

I predict Greens will be on 15% and winning MPs in Sheffield and Bristol with Labour reduced to 25% vote share by the next election.

 

[Rimbaud]

The fact that I think it is necessary, and possible, for a revolution to bring about a fundamental change our political system does not mean that I think think it is likely on either the short or medium term.

Your predictions of large scale defections from the Tories to LDs are as realistic as your prediction that the turnout in 2017 was going to break 80% (actual turnout 68.8%). It shows a deep lack of understanding of the party political system in this country.
BTW is the below still on the cards?

I didn't predict anything - I just think it seems a bit rigid to say it absolutely cannot happen. Of course it is possible.

 

[weepiper]

The Truss bounce in action:

 

[ruffneck23]

 

[ska invita]

The Liberals were one of two major parties for 100 years until they weren't.

Things can change. There is a very reasonable chance that the UK could cease to exist as a country within a few years (United Ireland, independent Scotland) which would seem as good a time as any for a political realignment and unpredictable developments.

Trends like the decline of owner-occupiers who are the natural Tory base, general decline of the UK's international standing and economy under Tory leadership, and a succession of very poor leaders could also have a serious long term impact. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility outright. If Truss fails to complete a single term, as already looks quite likely, then she'll be the third consecutive Tory PM who has failed to complete a single term. This speaks to me not of coincidence or bad luck, but of some form of institutional dysfunction within the culture and composition of the Tory Party.

agree - this century has some seismic earthquakes instore - nothing is certain as we move into that future, and the british anciente regime is built on rotting foundations. the wheels are slowly coming off the current order but mixing metaphors its a very tough nut to crack. the break up of the union would certainly do a good bit of damage to it. there are so many unknowns to come... we may not know what but we can already see dark shadows from the future.

humanity is at a crossroads this century....past historical lessons are limited as catastrophic climate breakdown and breakneck technological advances are unique factors with global impacts. its these factors rather than home ownership stats that will be the key catalysts.

as long as there is a parliamentary party system there will always be a powerful party in which capital coalesces around. Whether that party will be one with Conservatives written on the badge doesnt really matter one way or another - an equivalent will exist, and its far from unlikely that in the future it will be a more fascistic one.