The Conservative and Unionist Party's time is up

[andysays]

Perhaps they will survive, but "they are not going to die" seems a bit too certain. Tories being one of the two parties isn't part of the laws of physics. One day they will surely die.

It may not be part of the laws of physics, but the current electoral system massively benefits the two current major parties.

While the current electoral system remains the two current major parties are likely to remain the two major parties.

And because it benefits them, neither are likely to actually change it.

 

[redsquirrel]

While the traditional centre right parties of France and Italy have been decimated, it is worth remembering that the CDU (Germany) are still going strong as are the PP (Spain).

Some form of PR would change things medium term and a populist and/or harder right party does not seem absurd but even then recent by election results show there would be some support for a centre right party. How the CP would move and change under PR I am not sure but I can easily see it surviving.

EDIT: After all there is a CP presence at Holyrood and Cardiff

 

[Knotted]

Lefties are generally reluctant to see how Starmerist strategies might be effective (or even exist!). I think Starmer's quietism is good at allowing Tory voters to stop voting Tory (though not necessarily switch to Labour). This is another factor - regarding the interests that keep the Tories afloat, the stakes are lowered and the power of the FPTP system to keep the party as a prospect is diminished. (I think the Labour Party are locked into Starmerist timidity for the foreseeable - the future is Jess Phillip's smug boot stamping on a human face for ever)

 

[brogdale]

I note they didn't row back on Banker's bonuses.

Not a public purse issue; the optics concern was all about cutting benefits to gift the rich from public money.

 

[Rimbaud]

They've been one of the two major parties at Westminster for the last 100 years, the UK has an electoral system that tends towards a two party system (and does not like it will be changing), they have significant financials backers, represent a particular set of interests and have a historical & cultural background.

One day the earth will fall into the sun but on any sensible timescale the Conservative Party is going to be around.

The Liberals were one of two major parties for 100 years until they weren't.

Things can change. There is a very reasonable chance that the UK could cease to exist as a country within a few years (United Ireland, independent Scotland) which would seem as good a time as any for a political realignment and unpredictable developments.

Trends like the decline of owner-occupiers who are the natural Tory base, general decline of the UK's international standing and economy under Tory leadership, and a succession of very poor leaders could also have a serious long term impact. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility outright. If Truss fails to complete a single term, as already looks quite likely, then she'll be the third consecutive Tory PM who has failed to complete a single term. This speaks to me not of coincidence or bad luck, but of some form of institutional dysfunction within the culture and composition of the Tory Party.

 

[redsquirrel]

The Liberals were one of two major parties for 100 years until they weren't.

When there was a major expansion of the electorate. How is that to happen in 2025?

These are the same weak arguments made 20 years ago, hell made 5 years ago

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The demographic death of the Toreies has been predicted for decades, yet less than 5 years ago they secured a 80 seat majority.

Sure they look likely to lose the next election, possibly even badly, but the idea that the Tories are not going to be one of the two major parties at Westminster is fantasy. They might spend some, or even a considerable time, in the wilderness but they are not going to die.

Correct. However, there is an opportunity to keep the bastards out of office for two or three terms. They are politically divided. Civil war will openly deepen once into opposition. They have lost whatever narrative thread they thought they’d regained with Johnson. The ‘red wall’ vote has been, probably terminally, damaged. There is no apparent way back in Scotland. The same to a lesser extent in Wales.

All of this should inform Labour ambition and strategy for the long term. But, of course, won’t.

 

[mojo pixy]

When there was a major expansion of the electorate. How is that to happen in 2025?

Lowering the voting age to 16?
OK maybe not in 2024 but IMO probably/maybe by 2030.

 

[Knotted]

When there was a major expansion of the electorate. How is that to happen in 2025?

These are the same weak arguments made 20 years ago, hell made 5 years ago

I'm not sure the age of the argument matters. It's a long term hypothesis. People have been banging on about global warming for decades and we still had that mild summer a few years back... (OK not exactly the same thing I know ).

 

[redsquirrel]

It matters as many of these same arguments were advanced under New Labour, then (surprise, surprise) the Tories got back in, and have been in for 13 years.
Then we had the equivalent argument for the Labour Party, how it was going to be replaced by the liberals, and oh look now the LP is well ahead in the polls.

Really, FPTP provides an incredible support for two party politics and for established parties. Unless something extraordinary happens then the CP and LP are going to be the two big beasts.

 

[Knotted]

The empirical counter to the idea that FPTP has the power to hold votes is the rise of UKIP. They didn't break into the system electorally but they showed how many usual Tory voters were willing to risk letting Labour in by switching to UKIP. The Tories don't have the hold on (all) their voters that they used to. So even while they were in government under Cameron, they showed significant deterioration from their former glory, it's just Labour were at a very low ebb as well.

 

[Knotted]

Empirically I think it's demonstrable that there is a big increase in voting volatility. I'm still fascinated by what happened in 2019. Tory (westminster) vote completely collapses and then recovers to (almost) 80's levels all around Brexit policy (it seems). Even when they win big, it's a thin win nowadays.

 

[Smangus]

I think the gradual demise of the power of the newspaper headliners will have a big effect. The tories have traditionally been able to rely on this to leverage their messaging, as far as I can see the waxing of online media, message sharing and information dissemination is gradually breaking this .

As the younger generations get older their opinions of alternative source of news etc will be shaped by this , not the tory bound media. I think it is already having an effect. Obviously this will be offset to a degree by more poisonous sources of "news" and opinion but to what degree remains to be seen.

 

[redsquirrel]

Empirically I think it's demonstrable that there is a big increase in voting volatility.

I would agree that the sort of long, multi-generational party vote has been weakened (for both the CP and LP). But why that indicates the death of the Tory Party I am unsure. If anything it argues that for the likelihood that after a period of time in opposition the CP will be back in government.

I'm still fascinated by what happened in 2019. Tory (westminster) vote completely collapses and then recovers to (almost) 80's levels all around Brexit policy (it seems). Even when they win big, it's a thin win nowadays.

When you say the Tory vote 'collapses' I presume you mean the drop in support they had in polling between Feb 2019 and July 2019?
But that drop in support
(1) was mirrored by a rise in support for the Brexit Party, it shows the Tory vote being potentially squeezed from the right. However if an election had been called it is quite likely those voters would have returned to the CP, as in the end they did. Surely this shows the core support any CP would have
(2) the LP vote showed a similar 'collapse' you might as well argue that that illustrates the weakness Labour vote.

But let us suppose you are right that the Tories are going to collapse. Who are they replaced by?
The LibDems, who even with current problems of the CP are polling < 15%, and have not even managed to return to their pre-coalition levels of support?
Some sort of renewed UKIP? Where is this party to come from considering any lack of base?

It's been an abysmal couple of weeks for the Tories in the polls. But for two years they, a party that has been in government for over a decade, were polling ahead of Labour (during which time some insisted this showed the weakness of the LP vote and how all the progressive would defect to the Greens).
Truss looks like a total incompetent but things are likely to stabilise and when it comes down to it there will be voters that are unhappy but once in that booth will back blue (just as many voters did not ultimately desert Labour in 2010).

 

[SysOut]

That the boomer generation who benefited from rising house prices is disproportionately large and votes in large numbers is not something that will last forever, and a tipping point will eventually reached where their vote is no longer decisive.

Mid-20th century baby boom - Wikipedia

n the United Kingdom the baby boom occurred in two waves. After a short first wave of the baby boom during the war and immediately after, peaking in 1946, the United Kingdom experienced a second wave during the 1960s, with a peak in births in 1964 and a rapid fall after the Abortion Act 1967 came into force

It seems there is confusion between the UK and the North american baby boom.

Because you don't necessarily magically turn into a Tory when you get older,

Quite. I could imagine it has to do with the disappearance of leftist advocates and a decades long avalanche of pro-rightist opinions throughtout the media.

The end of the Cold War had its effect.

 

[Ĝasper]

Running with the hypothesis.
Tory party becomes obsolete.
Labour government.
Lib Dem opposition along with a new socialist party (sects aren't our destiny, the circumstances demand it).

 

[SysOut]

new socialist party

You mean we had old one?
Labour were never socialist.
They just used the word.
Blair declared himself a "socialist" - each time to laughter from the audience.
Once standing next to French President Sarkozy, just after having said that if he were french, he'd be a member of Sakozy's UMP.
He was helping them in the national municipal election campaign.
Only afterwards, after some comments, did he go and visit the Parti Socialist (which is not socialist either, nor the CPF...)

 

[David Clapson]

Philip Oppenheim, a former Tory minister and MP for 16 years, said Truss will "probably be the last ever Tory prime minister" in a letter to the FT Subscribe to read | Financial Times archive.ph But I reckon it's hysterical nonsense. The Tories will bounce back.

 

[SysOut]

The Tories will bounce back.

Of course. They'll have to change their leadership election procedures to eliminate the populist and the vacuous.
Brexit really damaged the party; many key people just left (retired).

 

[kabbes]

They were in just as bad a state if not worse immediately after 1997. Indeed, they lost three elections on the trot, it was so bad. But they still returned in the end, like a bad smell.

 

[weepiper]

Edinburgh Tory headquarters spray painted with 'blood on your hands' by vandals

The Scottish Conservative's said that they reported the act of vandalism to Police Scotland. Their central office was targeted by a political activist group in the early hours of Monday 3.

www.edinburghlive.co.uk

 

[steveo87]

Fundamentally, The Tories will aways be around because, like the the left and Labour, there are no credible alternatives.

Unfortunately.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

As long as barbarian shithole rags like the Scum and the Daily Sieg Heil remain popular, the cancer of Toryism will never been eradicated

 

[rubbershoes]

REmember the early noughties and the hilarity of William "I am assured he pays his taxes" Hague, and the Quiet Man before he became Ian Duncan Welfare-Shiva, Destroyer of Lives.

This. There was talk around 2000 of the tory party being killed off forever. There'll always be people on the right, and if there's no tory party they'd support ukip /bnp/whatever

 

[Karl Masks]

This. There was talk around 2000 of the tory party being killed off forever. There'll always be people on the right, and if there's no tory party they'd support ukip /bnp/whatever

Oh good, I'm glad someone could parse the rubbish I wrote.

There will indeed always be some right wing tory rump. But what struck me about the immediate aftermath of the banking crash, arguably the lever that put them back into power, was how inept and unwilling Labour were at defending their own record. For all the failings of new labour, they did achieve things. But instead they all cowered in misery apologising profusely for that letter Liam Byrne wrote

 

[steveo87]

This. There was talk around 2000 of the tory party being killed off forever. There'll always be people on the right, and if there's no tory party they'd support ukip /bnp/whatever

In five or ten years time, when the dust has settled over Brexit/Covid/Ukraine(hopefully), and its all a distant memory - there will be a 'reappraisal' of Johnson (et al.) - probably media led - that'll present him as 'lovable oaf, who's only mistake was to be PM at the wrong time'.

Its why, personally (and this isn't a dig at anyone), I find the 'who was the most/least charismatic PM?' debate on the other threads unhelpful.
Of course Brown is likely to be seen as 'better' leader than Truss - its been 12 years of Tory bullshit. But Brown was part of a government that actively pursued War Crimes.


(There are more examples, but I'm at work and the boss has walked in.)

 

[MickiQ]

I do think the transfer of property ownership from owner-occupiers to the rentier class is going to catch a lot of Tories (and others) out in the next decade or so, and the conditions for it (starving the NHS and social care of investment, people going private for operations as they can’t wait, equity release schemes) are already in place.

I know plenty of people who’s only chance of owning their own home is a parent dying, with the caveat that the parent needs to do so quickly and without needing long term care

Of my three elder children two of them needed substantial 'loans' from the Bank of Dad to get on the housing ladder despite having saved up a fair bit on their own. The other one married a guy who already owned his own house but is the only child of two only children and whose grandparents lived long healthy lives and died quickly without fuss. My nieces and nephews are all pretty much in the same boat.
There is going to be a surge sometime in the next two or three decades when a lot of people are going to start hitting late middle age and even retirement without owning their own homes and no chance of ever owning their homes and I agree with you that change is going to significantly alter the dynamics of politics.
As for whether the Tories are doomed well things really don't look good for them at the moment but I can remember 1982 when things looked just as bad for them and we all know how that turned out.
A few months ago I would have thought they would have been a cinch for winning in 2024 but now I can't imagine how, but they've still got plenty of time to re-invent themselves.

 

[Karl Masks]

In five or ten years time, when the dust has settled over Brexit/Covid/Ukraine(hopefully), and its all a distant memory - there will be a 'reappraisal' of Johnson (et al.) - probably media led - that'll present him as 'lovable oaf, who's only mistake was to be PM at the wrong time'.

So he returns to his original form. The witty bon vivant and rake who said 'whiff waff' instead of table tennis and prestened HIGNFY.

Fuck me

 

[steveo87]

So he returns to his original form. The witty bon vivant and rake who said 'whiff waff' instead of table tennis and prestened HIGNFY.

Fuck me

It's happened with Hague - he has this reputation of not being 'alright, for a Tory'.

 

[Rimbaud]

When there was a major expansion of the electorate. How is that to happen in 2025?

These are the same weak arguments made 20 years ago, hell made 5 years ago

There are ways that it could come about without a major expansion of the electorate. Large scale defections of Tory MPs, or a certain set of disastrous politicial conditions that result in the Lib Dems getting more votes than the Tories. Excessive pandering to the Brexit extremists causing their backers to shift to a Party viewed more beneficial to international capital. Being beaten by the Lib Dems even once would be enough to permanently break the Tories default role in the 2 Party system.

I find it strange that you can imagine a proletarian revolution despite all the institutional and cultural factors hindering that, but the far more modest scenario of the Tories fucking up so badly that the Lib Dems get more votes than them even once is unthinkable.