The Brexit process

[DotCommunist]

I bet Hollobone is having apoplectic fits over this malarky so at least some good comes out of it all

 

[andysays]

And parliament says NO. Then what?

Then we stay in the EU and all the MPs who voted to stay attempt to explain that to their constituents at the next GE (or possibly we get kicked out of the EU with no proper agreement, because it's decided that once A50 is triggered there's no going back).

I should probably have said "makes sense within the logic of absolute parliamentary sovereignty" which is not necessarily the logic which you or I or many of the electorate share.

 

[krtek a houby]

Mind you I'm just a thicko or a racist or both it seems for voting left leave as a pro-worker, anti-capital socialist whom opposes all forms of neoliberalism. Still, the liberals will be always right.

(still battling with whether to post regularly on urban again tbh. Its not whether someone voted remain or leave in a referendum where both official camps fought on pro-capital/neoliberal grounds. Its the sneering that left the bad taste I can't get out of my mouth)

The sneering does leave a bad taste but that's been a staple on urban for years. The Brexit result (which I personally detest) has only intensified the infighting here.

 

[Yossarian]

what would they have done if Di was alive and voted remain?

"Queen of SHARTS - Di Revealed as Remainiac"

 

[SpookyFrank]

There is an ethical point to this...it offers the oppertunity for an mp to unethically vote in parliment based on his\ her personal preference...

So just the same as every other parliamentary vote then.

 

[pocketscience]

So just the same as every other parliamentary vote then.

No, not at all. The difference this time is you have the result of the constituents choice to the binary q before the parlimantary vote.

You'd have a point if there was a parlimentay vote on the results of a general election... But that would be rediculous wouldnt it

 

[bimble]

YouGov | On the five stages of grief, many Remain voters are stuck in denial

 

[SpookyFrank]

And parliament says NO. Then what?

Parliament isn't going to say no. Ethics don't enter into it, there simply aren't enough MP's willing to commit career suicide. The idea of the labour party voting en masse against brexit is laughable, they won't even vote for their own leader's policies.

 

[pocketscience]

One thing's for sure; if parliament does vote against triggering A50, we're never likely to see a referendum in a the UK again.

 

[ska invita]

In my mind this ruling changes nothing...there'll be a lot of hot air in parliament, May and Davis will have to squirm their way through it, and a50 will be triggered as it would've been...but:

It makes far more sense, IMO, that Parliament should have to have final approval on any final deal, rather than whether to start the negotiating process at all, so this argument over process is likely to run for some time...

...thats an interesting point I hadn't considered. I expect there'll be people looking into making that happen. But even if it does I can't see it getting to a point where the deal would be blocked by a majority of MPs. Though 3 years is a long time in politics. Even so, I doubt it very much.

On another note it would be nice to see these 3 judges take some of the right wing rags to court for defamation. I expect they might know a good lawyer or two.That would definitely add to the entertainment.

 

[butchersapron]

Something that's just struck me while reading about this Tory MP resigning. All sides (apart from a few minority views) taking formal positions are now sons and daughters of a horrible Enoch Powell/Tony benn lash up. The outs oppose the EU on bennite grounds of its inherent economic nature or the powelite grounds of its thievery of national sovereignty. The ins have suddenly found a formerly rather quiet voice on the grounds of parliamentary supremacy that benn and Powell were the leading voices of last century.

 

[sihhi]

Something that's just struck me while reading about this Tory MP resigning. All sides (apart from a few minority views) taking formal positions are now sons and daughters of a horrible Enoch Powell/Tony benn lash up. The outs oppose the EU on bennite grounds of its inherent economic nature or the powelite grounds of its thievery of national sovereignty. The ins have suddenly found a formerly rather quiet voice on the grounds of parliamentary supremacy that benn and Powell were the leading voices of last century.

Both sides -- protectionist-nationalist and liberalist-internationalist -- crush these ideas "democracy", "people", "living standards" into dust.

No surprise "parliamentary sovereignty" is in there aswell as is "national sovereignty".

 

[existentialist]

View attachment 94901
YouGov | On the five stages of grief, many Remain voters are stuck in denial

This is a bit bollocks, as anyone who's studied (or taught) the Kübler-Ross model knows full well that it's not some linear transition from state to state, neatly and in order.

 

[sihhi]

The language of "coups" and "counter-coups" is back in fashion too not been around since the 1970s or 1930s.

 

[Wilf]

Something that's just struck me while reading about this Tory MP resigning. All sides (apart from a few minority views) taking formal positions are now sons and daughters of a horrible Enoch Powell/Tony benn lash up. The outs oppose the EU on bennite grounds of its inherent economic nature or the powelite grounds of its thievery of national sovereignty. The ins have suddenly found a formerly rather quiet voice on the grounds of parliamentary supremacy that benn and Powell were the leading voices of last century.

And, in passing, that was part of what was wrong Benn(ism). Not just that he was an actual pal of Powell, nor even his Parliamentary Cretinism, but that he had a particularly unthinking version of Parliamentary Cretinism.

 

[ChrisD]

What happened there then?

my understanding is that when capital punishment was repealed the majorty of voters were in favour of retention....

Anyone seen analysis of how many constituencies voted for Brexit? are the referendum results available on each constituency? I'm not advocating either way just interested in that figure.

 

[Pickman's model]

One thing's for sure; if parliament does vote against triggering A50, we're never likely to see a referendum in a the UK again.

i hardly think we're likely to see one again anyway as the last one wasn't a resounding advert for the plebiscite.

 

[Wilf]

In one respect, Theresa May's position is now extremely strong. If she gets backed into a corner she can just call a general election. The Labour Party has died, the referendum didn't lead to an economic meltdown and she runs on a 'will of the people' ticket, gets an increased majority (though for the moment she's said she won't call an election). In theory at least it could also give her more room for manoeuvre in Parliament. She could use the debate she's now forced to have to manipulate a soft brexit and the access to the single market she still (presumably) wants. I don't think she'll do this though as it would reopen the civil war in her party. She was quite happy to keep quiet in the referendum and has established her prime ministership in letting it happen, largely leaving it to David Davis. Brexit means Brexit is now who she is.

Sometimes things take an unexpected turn, but nothing is likely to be different as a result of the court ruling. The key problem the remainers in parliament have Is that they may actually have a chance to propose soft brexit amendments - I don't think it's clear what the format of the debate/vote will be yet - but that's not a good look. To their constituents it will look very much like an attempt to overturn the referendum.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Again with the early general election thing.

 

[chilango]

To their constituents it will look very much like an attempt to overturn the referendum.

Which will play well to many of the swing labour/lib/tory remainers in key seats in middle England.

 

[Wilf]

I don't think she will call a general election. She knows she'll almost certainly win a brexit vote in the commons and the mechanics of calling an early election are convoluted. She could certainly taunt Corbyn, asking him to support suspending the fixed parliament act, which would put him on the spot to say the least.

 

[Wilf]

Which will play well to many of the swing labour/lib/tory remainers in key seats in middle England.

There would certainly be some interesting sub-plots in an election, the main one being ukip and whether it was to get its mojo back on a 'defend brexit' ticket (which Theresa May would be seeking to play herself, to the point of successfully arguing there's now no need to vote ukip). Might well lead to the Tories winning seats in the midlands and north.

 

[Wilf]

As I've said I don't think there will be an election. However there's an irony: in the past Labour often wanted to maximise Tory divisions over Europe to manipulate a confidence vote to get a general election (in the Major years). Nowadays, the Tories would have nothing to fear from a Euro focused election and would probably use it to crush Labour back to the stone age.

 

[kebabking]

I don't think she will call a general election. She knows she'll almost certainly win a brexit vote in the commons and the mechanics of calling an early election are convoluted. She could certainly taunt Corbyn, asking him to support suspending the fixed parliament act, which would put him on the spot to say the least.

i don't think she needs his support actually - my understanding (ha!) of the Act is that if she were to resign the government, and the palace were to look around for another government who could command a majority in the HoC - and, of course, not find one in the two weeks available - then a GE can be called. (happy to be corrected!).

yougov poll out yesterday btw - Tories on 41%, Labour on 27%. more interesting is that May is on 47% as 'best PM', with Corbyn storming ahead in the credibility stakes with a mighty and unassailable 16%...

 

[butchersapron]

The article that you posted yesterday in answer to my question about the ECJ included the author's opinion on reversibility. I wasn't trying to suggest it was your opinion, so apologies if it came across that way.



I haven't read the full ruling (and I'm not a lawyer, obviosly) I'm just going on my understanding of what the BBC are saying, which could well be wrong

To go back to this last bit, this is certainly how it was presented by the investment manager heading up the court case:

“This case is about process, not politics. [We are] pleased to have played our part in helping form a debate on whether the rights conferred on U.K. citizens through parliament legislation 44 years ago could be casually snuffed out by the executive without parliament or our elected representatives and without proper prior consultation about the government’s intentions for Brexit.”

Reading the full judgment i really can't see it.

 

[Wilf]

i don't think she needs his support actually - my understanding (ha!) of the Act is that if she were to resign the government, and the palace were to look around for another government who could command a majority in the HoC - and, of course, not find one in the two weeks available - then a GE can be called. (happy to be corrected!).

yougov poll out yesterday btw - Tories on 41%, Labour on 27%. more interesting is that May is on 47% as 'best PM', with Corbyn storming ahead in the credibility stakes with a mighty and unassailable 16%...

Cheers, I was trying to remember what circumstances there were other than suspending the Act. Remembered there was the no-confidence motion, but forgot that. Theresa May might be pissed off with the court decision, but she's still in a very strong position.

 

[Pickman's model]

Cheers, I was trying to remember what circumstances there were other than suspending the Act. Remembered there was the no-confidence motion, but forgot that. Theresa May might be pissed off with the court decision, but she's still in a very strong position.

pity she's so weak then

 

[DotCommunist]

Again with the early general election thing.

I want a rolled up copy of the fixed term act to hit people with

 

[andysays]

To go back to this last bit, this is certainly how it was presented by the investment manager heading up the court case:

Reading the full judgment i really can't see it.

I haven't read the full judgement, but I have now found a summary by the same author that you linked to yesterday. I'm going to have to read through it a few times before I can get my head around it though...

 

[kebabking]

pity she's so weak then

its Schrodingers Kitten Heels.

she's weak because she has a tiny minority thats getting smaller and a PCP thats getting ideas above its station, on the other hand she's strong because of her poll ratings, media image, simple message (yeah, i know..) and Corbyns/Labours ratings.

if she were able to bring about a GE - and to be strictly fair, having a majority of 8 comes quite close to the mechanisms within the FTPA for triggering an election - she's unassailable. current polling suggests a 100+ majority, and no doubt whatsoever about what she'd have a mandate for, so Tory MP's throwing their toys out of the pram would be on a hiding to nothing...