RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
I said few, not none.
The 2023 Russian Coup.
- Thread starter tim
- Start date
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Saw on Portugal CNN him saying Russia weren’t doing very well in Iraqpure dark biden move man can blow up poorly designed subs with his mind
and his tendrils can take control of the Wagner group using hunter laptop
all whilst looking like he'll be blown over by the wind
close thing to a sith currently on the planet
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Overheard in a pub just over 30 years ago.
bimble
floofy
Having read this string of words several times i am still bamboozled.
Is it the limitations that are incoherent or the hopes ? Could you give an example of a nation whose hopes are coherent, just to contrast.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
The hopes. And no.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Just wait and see. The next entry in your catalogue of disappointments is already being drafted.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Yeah, from various telegrams local Osipovichy politicians say that Wagner are coming, hoping for some money, and something is being built, but who knows what it is.
Locals very unhappy even at the suggestion that psychos, rapists, paid cowards and the dregs from the Russian prison system might soon be in their midst. It's a small, dusty place and not too wealthy but still quiet.
It's really unclear at this point but I side with the Belarusian Hajun interpretation.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I know of quite a large number of Belarus anarchists who were arrested, tortured and/or had to flee the country in the aftermath of that non-existent 2020 uprising. Perhaps they dreamed it?
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Yep, they are well known political prisoners.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Point being they weren't doing it as part of a Wagner task force, and it was plenty real for them. Afaik none of them have subsequently been saying "oh actually it was all made up to frighten the olds" either.
Also Lukashenko habitually just makes up his election scores anyway, I'm not sure why he'd need an exciting event involving a clumsy conspiracy with a famous mercenary group to fluff the electorate.
Also Lukashenko habitually just makes up his election scores anyway, I'm not sure why he'd need an exciting event involving a clumsy conspiracy with a famous mercenary group to fluff the electorate.
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steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
I am referring to a fake "plot" involving the arrest of 33 Wagner operatives on 29 July 2020, which Lukashenko subsequently made a speech about on 4 August
I am not sure why you are trying to conflate that specific incident, its motivations or the way it was presented in the Belarusian press and abroad, with the ongoing campaign by Belarusian anarchists which led to high profile jailings with enormous double digit prison terms. The two are completely unrelated.
The context in July / August 2020 was a strong campaign by the Belarusian opposition which in a fair country would have toppled Lukashenko, widepsread contempt for his government for denying / covering up/ failing to deal with the impact of Covid by pretending it didn't exist. and his general paranoia. Hence the need to frighten the few old folks who still believe the output of BELTA.
In summary : you don't have a "point".
I am not sure why you are trying to conflate that specific incident, its motivations or the way it was presented in the Belarusian press and abroad, with the ongoing campaign by Belarusian anarchists which led to high profile jailings with enormous double digit prison terms. The two are completely unrelated.
The context in July / August 2020 was a strong campaign by the Belarusian opposition which in a fair country would have toppled Lukashenko, widepsread contempt for his government for denying / covering up/ failing to deal with the impact of Covid by pretending it didn't exist. and his general paranoia. Hence the need to frighten the few old folks who still believe the output of BELTA.
In summary : you don't have a "point".
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Only a monomaniac or someone who skim read looking for a pointless dust up would have interpreted my comments on this thread in that way.
Lurdan
old wave
Couple of FT articles:
Putin freezes out hardliners after Wagner mutiny - Financial Times (archived)
Wagner’s future in Africa in question after Russian mutiny - Financial Times (archived but see below)
The online version of this article has an annoying animated map in the middle of it - the bits of it are all present, although they are spread out, but it's no longer animated.
Here's the text of the article
Putin freezes out hardliners after Wagner mutiny - Financial Times (archived)
Wagner’s future in Africa in question after Russian mutiny - Financial Times (archived but see below)
The online version of this article has an annoying animated map in the middle of it - the bits of it are all present, although they are spread out, but it's no longer animated.
Here's the text of the article
Prigozhin mutiny tests Wagner resilience in Africa
Moscow is attempting to rein in a mercenary force sustained by a robust business model and outside sources of funding
DAVID PILLING — LONDON
ANDRES SCHIPANI — NAIROBI
AANU ADEOYE — LAGOS
SAMER AL-ATRUSH — DUBAI
For years, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has been the main vehicle of Russia’s power projection in Africa, engaging in military, mining and propaganda activities from Libya and Sudan to Mali and Mozambique.
If Moscow is able to follow through on its threat to disband Wagner after Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny, the question is what will happen to the mercenary group’s extensive African operations.
For Faustin-Archange Touadéra, president of Central African Republic, who owes his survival to Wagner mercenaries after they put down a coup attempt in 2020, that is down to Moscow. Fidèle Gouandjika, an adviser to Touadéra, said Wagner’s “instructors” came with Russia’s blessing.
“If Moscow decides to withdraw them and send us the Beethovens or the Mozarts rather than Wagners, we will have them,” he said.
Wagner has played a pivotal role in some conflicts and has drawn funding from a mix of sources but remains heavily dependent on Russian state backing, not least for logistical support.
“The monster will evolve but it will not die,” said Nathalia Dukhan, senior author of Architects of Terror, a report published on Tuesday by The Sentry, an investigative group, on Wagner in CAR.
The Kremlin has said Wagner’s activities in Africa will continue, but while it is seeking to take control of the group and its weapons in Russia and Ukraine, it has not indicated how it wishes to deal with its African operations.
Wagner has in five years given Moscow quick and cheap influence in Africa, experts said. It has also given the Kremlin plausible deniability for Wagner’s actions including election interference, disinformation campaigns in several countries and alleged massacres.
Despite Vladimir Putin’s claim on Tuesday that Russia “completely financed” Wagner, in Africa, where it has thousands of personnel, the group has funding sources beyond Moscow.
In CAR and other countries, Wagner operates a business model involving military violence and control of gold and diamond mines, Dukhan said. The model was resilient. “A virus survives. It will adapt to the new environment.”
In Libya, Wagner’s deployment was previously financed by the United Arab Emirates, according to the Pentagon, and also by Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who hired the group to fight alongside his forces in 2019. Western officials said the UAE funding dried up in 2021.
One western official said Wagner could continue its operations while looking for other means to arm itself, but Russian logistical backing would be hard to replace. Wagner has used Russian military bases and aircraft to transport everything from arms to personnel.
Charles Bouessel, a senior consultant with Crisis Group on CAR, said he could not see how Wagner could continue its African operations, which employ thousands, without Moscow’s approval.
“Wagner relies heavily on Russian defence ministry logistics for the delivery of military equipment,” he said. “Wagner will have trouble operating in the long term without this support.”
Samuel Ramani, author of the book Russia in Africa, said Prigozhin could head for Africa if he is unable to stay in Belarus as stipulated in his truce with Putin. “He could pop up in Sudan or in CAR as a medium-term destination.
“Prigozhin wanted to become the face and driver of Russia’s policy in Africa,” Ramani said. But Wagner’s Africa operations could survive without Prigozhin since it had ties to the GRU intelligence and was run by military veterans. Its operations could also be taken over by other private military companies (PMCs), such as the one run by Gazprom, Ramani added.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, on Monday promised continuity. “In addition to relations with this PMC, the governments of CAR and Mali have offi-cial contacts with our leadership,” he said “At their request, several hundred soldiers are working in CAR as instruc-tors. This work will continue.”
Diplomats in CAR said there had been no obvious change since Prigozhin’s rebellion and that senior Wagner figures remained in Bangui, the capital.
In Mali, where the military government’s deployment of Wagner since 2021 has received support from the heavily censored media, online newspaper Mali Actu wrote that events around Prigozhin were causing anxiety.
“Malians fear that recent events in Russia will affect the operations of the Wagner Group on their soil and generate new uncertainties regarding national security,” it said.
Mali is expelling Minusma UN peace-keepers, increasing Bamako’s reliance on Wagner to fight a jihadi insurgency that has raged since 2012. “If [Wagner] pulled out, then the Malians would have a problem,” said a western diplomat.
In Libya, Prigozhin’s forces have had a tense relationship with the Russian military. While they helped provide a foot-hold in a country with Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, Russian officials had expressed frustration that Prigozhin, particularly his political operations, had complicated ties with Tripoli.
Up to 2,000 Wagner mercenaries were beaten back in 2020 by Turkish forces in Libya but Wagner still emerged with control of two air bases that it used as a hub for its Mali deployment.
Wagner’s resilience has been tested before. When Russia invaded Ukraine last February, analysts said, some fighters were pulled out of Africa for the assault. Yet Dukhan said its activities in CAR may have intensified. Wagner has trained militias and rebuilt its Russian fighting force, she said. Last August, CAR told the UN it anticipated receiving a further 3,000 Russian “instructors”, potentially adding to the roughly 1,500 who diplomats and defence officials estimate are now in the country.
Two diplomatic sources said Russian flights to CAR had been more frequent in recent weeks, suggesting an increase in arms shipments. Some weaponry might be headed for Sudan, where Wag-ner has links with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, whose paramilitary forces are fighting the regular army, said diplo-mats. Dagalo admits his troops were trained by Wagner but denies continuing ties. “They are not reducing their operation in CAR,” said Dukhan. “They are increasing it and they are planning to grow more.”
Moscow is attempting to rein in a mercenary force sustained by a robust business model and outside sources of funding
DAVID PILLING — LONDON
ANDRES SCHIPANI — NAIROBI
AANU ADEOYE — LAGOS
SAMER AL-ATRUSH — DUBAI
For years, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has been the main vehicle of Russia’s power projection in Africa, engaging in military, mining and propaganda activities from Libya and Sudan to Mali and Mozambique.
If Moscow is able to follow through on its threat to disband Wagner after Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny, the question is what will happen to the mercenary group’s extensive African operations.
For Faustin-Archange Touadéra, president of Central African Republic, who owes his survival to Wagner mercenaries after they put down a coup attempt in 2020, that is down to Moscow. Fidèle Gouandjika, an adviser to Touadéra, said Wagner’s “instructors” came with Russia’s blessing.
“If Moscow decides to withdraw them and send us the Beethovens or the Mozarts rather than Wagners, we will have them,” he said.
Wagner has played a pivotal role in some conflicts and has drawn funding from a mix of sources but remains heavily dependent on Russian state backing, not least for logistical support.
“The monster will evolve but it will not die,” said Nathalia Dukhan, senior author of Architects of Terror, a report published on Tuesday by The Sentry, an investigative group, on Wagner in CAR.
The Kremlin has said Wagner’s activities in Africa will continue, but while it is seeking to take control of the group and its weapons in Russia and Ukraine, it has not indicated how it wishes to deal with its African operations.
Wagner has in five years given Moscow quick and cheap influence in Africa, experts said. It has also given the Kremlin plausible deniability for Wagner’s actions including election interference, disinformation campaigns in several countries and alleged massacres.
Despite Vladimir Putin’s claim on Tuesday that Russia “completely financed” Wagner, in Africa, where it has thousands of personnel, the group has funding sources beyond Moscow.
In CAR and other countries, Wagner operates a business model involving military violence and control of gold and diamond mines, Dukhan said. The model was resilient. “A virus survives. It will adapt to the new environment.”
In Libya, Wagner’s deployment was previously financed by the United Arab Emirates, according to the Pentagon, and also by Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who hired the group to fight alongside his forces in 2019. Western officials said the UAE funding dried up in 2021.
One western official said Wagner could continue its operations while looking for other means to arm itself, but Russian logistical backing would be hard to replace. Wagner has used Russian military bases and aircraft to transport everything from arms to personnel.
Charles Bouessel, a senior consultant with Crisis Group on CAR, said he could not see how Wagner could continue its African operations, which employ thousands, without Moscow’s approval.
“Wagner relies heavily on Russian defence ministry logistics for the delivery of military equipment,” he said. “Wagner will have trouble operating in the long term without this support.”
Samuel Ramani, author of the book Russia in Africa, said Prigozhin could head for Africa if he is unable to stay in Belarus as stipulated in his truce with Putin. “He could pop up in Sudan or in CAR as a medium-term destination.
“Prigozhin wanted to become the face and driver of Russia’s policy in Africa,” Ramani said. But Wagner’s Africa operations could survive without Prigozhin since it had ties to the GRU intelligence and was run by military veterans. Its operations could also be taken over by other private military companies (PMCs), such as the one run by Gazprom, Ramani added.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, on Monday promised continuity. “In addition to relations with this PMC, the governments of CAR and Mali have offi-cial contacts with our leadership,” he said “At their request, several hundred soldiers are working in CAR as instruc-tors. This work will continue.”
Diplomats in CAR said there had been no obvious change since Prigozhin’s rebellion and that senior Wagner figures remained in Bangui, the capital.
In Mali, where the military government’s deployment of Wagner since 2021 has received support from the heavily censored media, online newspaper Mali Actu wrote that events around Prigozhin were causing anxiety.
“Malians fear that recent events in Russia will affect the operations of the Wagner Group on their soil and generate new uncertainties regarding national security,” it said.
Mali is expelling Minusma UN peace-keepers, increasing Bamako’s reliance on Wagner to fight a jihadi insurgency that has raged since 2012. “If [Wagner] pulled out, then the Malians would have a problem,” said a western diplomat.
In Libya, Prigozhin’s forces have had a tense relationship with the Russian military. While they helped provide a foot-hold in a country with Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, Russian officials had expressed frustration that Prigozhin, particularly his political operations, had complicated ties with Tripoli.
Up to 2,000 Wagner mercenaries were beaten back in 2020 by Turkish forces in Libya but Wagner still emerged with control of two air bases that it used as a hub for its Mali deployment.
Wagner’s resilience has been tested before. When Russia invaded Ukraine last February, analysts said, some fighters were pulled out of Africa for the assault. Yet Dukhan said its activities in CAR may have intensified. Wagner has trained militias and rebuilt its Russian fighting force, she said. Last August, CAR told the UN it anticipated receiving a further 3,000 Russian “instructors”, potentially adding to the roughly 1,500 who diplomats and defence officials estimate are now in the country.
Two diplomatic sources said Russian flights to CAR had been more frequent in recent weeks, suggesting an increase in arms shipments. Some weaponry might be headed for Sudan, where Wag-ner has links with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, whose paramilitary forces are fighting the regular army, said diplo-mats. Dagalo admits his troops were trained by Wagner but denies continuing ties. “They are not reducing their operation in CAR,” said Dukhan. “They are increasing it and they are planning to grow more.”
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Yes, this was a completely non-arsy "query".
You're not the only one who knows people in Belarusian prisons.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
It was pointed, because of the way I'd read your comment (obviously I have no idea how many Belarusian prisoners you may or may not know, to me you're just someone on the internet), but it's hardly pistols at dawn is it. Anyway if you want to take great offence and call me a monomaniac or whatnot that's up to you I guess, for whatever good it does ¯\(ツ)/¯
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Further information on the encampment which will be in an abandoned military base at Tsel, 20kms N/W of Ospiovichy.
Conclusion: it will be some time before this is any kind of functioning military base and there is no guarantee Wagner will have the men or materiel to populate it meaningfully.
Half an hour away further to the NW of Tsel is Marina Gorka, home to a very large Spetznatz division, in case the Wagners decide to start causing trouble- if they ever appear.
Conclusion: it will be some time before this is any kind of functioning military base and there is no guarantee Wagner will have the men or materiel to populate it meaningfully.
Half an hour away further to the NW of Tsel is Marina Gorka, home to a very large Spetznatz division, in case the Wagners decide to start causing trouble- if they ever appear.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Fixed it for you.
gosub
~#
Prigozhin’s Mutineers Shot Down One of Russia’s Limited High-Tech Command Aircraft
Wagner’s short-lived mutiny may prove more costly for Putin’s war in Ukraine than expected – they shot down one of only twelve Russian Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command posts.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Meduza has an interview with a historian who thinks the lack of support shown bodes ill for Putin: ‘If the authorities had rallied around Putin, Prigozhin wouldn’t have even reached Rostov’ Historian Andrey Zubov on why the Wagner rebellion may spell regime change in Russia — Meduza
gosub
~#
All The Kremlin's Men: Russian Officials Drop Out Of Sight, Suggesting Post-Mutiny Purges
Two top Russian generals. The man who launched the mutiny that shook Vladimir Putin’s presidency. A growing number of public figures have dropped out of sight since the revolt -- a possible indication of purges that Putin promised in its aftermath.
www.rferl.org
jeff_leigh
What happened to Dubversion ?
Sounds like wishful thinking from a Putin critic, The majority of Wagner have been incorporated into the Russian Military except for the ones that went on the day trip to Rostov who’ve been sent to Belarus with Prigozhin, Putin’s also cancelled all Prigozhin’s Government Catering contracts just to rub his nose in it
JimW
支那暗杀团
Clearly a fair bit of that but his central point about the lack of support seems reasonable. I suppose it could have been paralysis in the face of something unexpected but his take is also plausible.
teqniq
DisMembered
According to this it seems that Prigozhin is to become a non-person:
www.theguardian.com
‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord
The Wagner mercenary group boss who marched on Moscow has had his internet outlets blocked and troll factory closed down
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh we had that happen at work too, there will be no card, there will be no collection, there will be no leaving doAccording to this it seems that Prigozhin is to become a non-person:
‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord
The Wagner mercenary group boss who marched on Moscow has had his internet outlets blocked and troll factory closed down
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
According to this it seems that Prigozhin is to become a non-person:
‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord
The Wagner mercenary group boss who marched on Moscow has had his internet outlets blocked and troll factory closed down
So, a Freeman on the Land?
