The 2023 Russian Coup.

[pug]

Good luck to them without any tanks or artillery.

I think Russia might have just sent some artillery to Belarus.

 

[bimble]

Maybe some parallels also with the armies raised & maintained by the east India company, back then.

 

[LDC]

Mark Galeotti's take on the 'coup'. Not listened yet, but he usually has some pretty interesting things to say. His background is Russian focused academic and political scientist: Mark Galeotti - Wikipedia

In Moscow's Shadows 105: Prigozhin's Mutiny - In Moscow's Shadows

Prigozhin's mutiny... or, 36 hours of what-the-hell? It's too close for a really judicious take on this weekend's hijinks, but first thoughts on why Prigozhin did it, what happened, and what this all actually means.The podcast's corporate partner ...

www.buzzsprout.com

 

[The39thStep]

Portugals RTP covered Prigozhin's new video this afternoon

A number of themes in the video :


1) Wagner are the most effective military outfit that fights for Russia ( and for African countries)
2) that proposals to dismantle Wagner and transfer Wagner personnel to the RFU would mean the end of this
3) sets out their track record and says that transfer would just send their personnel to the meat grinder and only 2% have signed for the RFU
4) makes the point that on Saturday they travelled the same distance in one day that the RFU has made progress since the war started
5) Wagner showed in a master class of how the military operation of February 2024 should had to have taken place
5) the protest march was attacked by Russian forces so they were forced to defend themselves
6) The intention ( when they got to 200 kilometres outside of Moscow ) was to hand their equipment in
7) Lukachenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the future work of the Wagner PMC under a new legal jurisdiction
8) Wagner is against the bureaucracy that is not conducting the war correctly
9) No intention of overthrowing the existing regime and the legally elected government.

The RTP article also covered :

In a statement, the Wagner Group refers that training at the St. Petersburg barracks continues to take place as normal.

The head of Russian diplomacy, Serguei Lavrov, also assured that the operations of the mercenaries will remain normal and that the rebellion will not affect relations between Moscow and its allies. Lavrov assured that the Wagner group will continue to operate in the Central African Republic and Mali. The Wagners' participation in the Ukrainian war was not mentioned.

Moscow meanwhile announced investigations into an alleged involvement of Western secret services in the mutiny of the paramilitary group, ordered by Lavrov. US President Joe Biden has already come to deny any participation.

Funnily enough one of the sections sub headings in the article was Cabeça a prémio which I think means bounty on head .

 

[kebabking]

Mark Galeotti's take on the 'coup'. Not listened yet, but he usually has some pretty interesting things to say. His background is Russian focused academic and political scientist: Mark Galeotti - Wikipedia

In Moscow's Shadows 105: Prigozhin's Mutiny - In Moscow's Shadows

Prigozhin's mutiny... or, 36 hours of what-the-hell? It's too close for a really judicious take on this weekend's hijinks, but first thoughts on why Prigozhin did it, what happened, and what this all actually means.The podcast's corporate partner ...

www.buzzsprout.com

Thought it was good - I really rate MG.

Interesting note - he mentioned in that episode how unenthusiastic the National Guard/OMON had historically been, and I saw Zolotov was crowing on TV how Rosgvardyia was getting Wagner's armour and artillery.

Putin is tooling up the Pretorian Guard, not giving the Russian Army a couple of divisions worth of gear. Shows the man's priorities - also interesting to hear MG to talk about how Vlad is blind to, or endlessly forgiving of, FSB's failures...

 

[gosub]

The Putin loyalist who was the target of Wagner’s revolt

As Vladimir Putin’s former caterer marched on Moscow on Saturday, his declared goal was the resignation of the men in charge of Russia’s disastrous war in Ukraine.

www.stripes.com

 

[tim]

This.

If and when Lukashenko dies/falls, Moscow have a ready made replacement.

Aside from the fact that he Prigozhin isn't from Belarus, given his recent track record "Moscow" probably don't regard him as a safe pair of hands.

 

[kebabking]

Aside from the fact that he Prigozhin isn't from Belarus, given his recent track record "Moscow" probably don't regard him as a safe pair of hands.

I think that given what he's done with a private army, I rather doubt Putin fancies giving Prigozhin a private country...

I'm also not convinced it's within Putin's gift - Belarus isn't a blank sheet that Vlad can crayon over to his hearts content - yes it's heavily Russiafied, but Lukashenko isn't president simply because he's Putin's creature, he's president because he's what's acceptable to the various power structures in Belarus (military, political, economic, security) and because of the Putin thing (though I'd argue that that's a flexible relationship on both sides).

 

[planetgeli]

Portugals RTP covered Prigozhin's new video this afternoon

A number of themes in the video :


1) Wagner are the most effective military outfit that fights for Russia ( and for African countries)
2) that proposals to dismantle Wagner and transfer Wagner personnel to the RFU would mean the end of this
3) sets out their track record and says that transfer would just send their personnel to the meat grinder and only 2% have signed for the RFU
4) makes the point that on Saturday they travelled the same distance in one day that the RFU has made progress since the war started
5) Wagner showed in a master class of how the military operation of February 2024 should had to have taken place
5) the protest march was attacked by Russian forces so they were forced to defend themselves
6) The intention ( when they got to 200 kilometres outside of Moscow ) was to hand their equipment in
7) Lukachenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the future work of the Wagner PMC under a new legal jurisdiction
8) Wagner is against the bureaucracy that is not conducting the war correctly
9) No intention of overthrowing the existing regime and the legally elected government.

Sorry, I'm bored. Bit of a mix there.

1) Wagner are the most effective military outfit that fights for Russia ( and for African countries)

Probably true but 'for' might be doing some work there. 'On behalf of/at the invitation of' might be better. Wagner fight for themselves.

2) that proposals to dismantle Wagner and transfer Wagner personnel to the RFU would mean the end of this

Undoubtedly. The end of a big money making operation.

3) sets out their track record and says that transfer would just send their personnel to the meat grinder and only 2% have signed for the RFU

Almost certainly true. This was an, erm, existential issue for Wagner.

4) makes the point that on Saturday they travelled the same distance in one day that the RFU has made progress since the war started

Lol. They met so much resistance, being Russians, in Russia

5) Wagner showed in a master class of how the military operation of February 2024 should had to have taken place

Does this refer to the drive up the M4? Laughable if so.

5) the protest march was attacked by Russian forces so they were forced to defend themselves

Seems so, yes. But not attacked to the extent they could have been to my untrained eye.

6) The intention ( when they got to 200 kilometres outside of Moscow ) was to hand their equipment in

Lol. 'course it was.

7) Lukachenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions for the future work of the Wagner PMC under a new legal jurisdiction

"extended his hand". Lol. He's a cuddly man eh?
Obvious bollocks.

8) Wagner is against the bureaucracy that is not conducting the war correctly

Undoubtedly.

9) No intention of overthrowing the existing regime and the legally elected government.

Probably not. But I suspect either he or he and his top bods had pretty high connections up the oligarch line somewhere. The occasional cheeky thought must have been played out in the minds of a few people.

Tl;dr? It still wasn't a coup. But some of this is pure after the event justification to save face about an event we'll take a long time to find out the exact details of.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

You missed the date fuckup.

 

[planetgeli]

You missed the date fuckup.

So I did. Can't be helped, I hardly know what day it is atm.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Also Kronstadt. Maybe that doesn't count as a coup though.

Kronstadt a coup!

You may have induced coronary, strokes, fecal incontinence and even homicide with such an abject counter revolutionary suggestion.

Keep up the good work - Louis MacNeice

 

[gosub]

Plot Thickens: Russian Generals Supported Wagner Mutiny but Backed Out – US Intelligence

Speculation continues as to why Prigozhin embarked on his “March for Justice” at the weekend, what prompted it, why it failed and who knew - some answers may now be forthcoming.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[steeplejack]

The very reliable Belarusian Hajun project, which monitors the movement of Russian troops and equipment in Belarus, suggest that Wagner "moving there" is a giant disinformation op. Good twitter thread below which seems very plausible, these folks base their work on on the ground analysis and intelligence which is spot on.

Persistent rumours that an armed camp will be established for Wagner near Ospiovichy, a poor railway juntion town in Mogilev oblast, in the east. Prigozhin is in Minsk but can't believe he'll be there for the long term nor does he have much interest in the place. It seems few if any of his criminal gang of murderers, rapists and professional psychopaths ahve shown up- thankfully for the locals.

Lukashenko has been involved in psyops previously with Wagner, when he staged an "armed uprising" using their staff shortly before the last election in August 2020, as a pathetic means of frightening old people who believe everything they see on state television, that a foreign-backed coup was imminent. Needless to say after a bellicose appearance of state TV in military uniform threatening long prison sentences for the "plotters", they were released without charge ten days later.

Rumours that somehow Prigozhin guarantees Lukashenko's regime or that there is some plot to replace Lukashenko with Prigozhin are absolute drivel, like adding up two and two and getting 507 as the answer. No evidence whatever that Wagner will be incorporated into BY armed forces- BY doesn't have the money to pay them- nor that the endlessly trailed incursion from the north towards Kyiv will materialise.

It's been a fascinating few days but they've also shown that those who jump to quick and easy conclusions are usually wrong.

Anyway, that thread:

 

[steeplejack]

"General Armageddon" Surovikin has apparently been under arrest since June 25 and currently is in jail. Sided tacitly with Prigozhin is the rumour despite releasing a public statement to the contrary. Source : The Moscow Times.

 

[kebabking]

Amusing(?) titbit - Surovikin got 7 months after partaking in the 1991 coup. He killed 3 civvies.

 

[RD2003]

Amusing(?) titbit - Surovikin got 7 months after partaking in the 1991 coup. He killed 3 civvies.

The talk going on in the circle of young Muscovites I was, as an outsider, only on the fringe of, was that the deaths-the only ones iirc, although I could be wrong-came about when young, inexperienced soldiers were confronted by an angry mob which included grizzled, pissed up Afghanistan veterans and opened fire in panic before beating a retreat. Could have been hearsay, of course, but those spreading it were all very much opposed to the coup. As was I.

I remember taking a look at the aftermath of the killings, but only because I was in the area by chance a week or more after the coup collapsed. It was the usual stuff-bouquets of flowers and people standing about etc. Think I might still have photographs of much of the coup's aftermath, if they've survived my many address changes since then.

 

[The39thStep]

The very reliable Belarusian Hajun project, which monitors the movement of Russian troops and equipment in Belarus, suggest that Wagner "moving there" is a giant disinformation op. Good twitter thread below which seems very plausible, these folks base their work on on the ground analysis and intelligence which is spot on.

Persistent rumours that an armed camp will be established for Wagner near Ospiovichy, a poor railway juntion town in Mogilev oblast, in the east. Prigozhin is in Minsk but can't believe he'll be there for the long term nor does he have much interest in the place. It seems few if any of his criminal gang of murderers, rapists and professional psychopaths ahve shown up- thankfully for the locals.

Lukashenko has been involved in psyops previously with Wagner, when he staged an "armed uprising" using their staff shortly before the last election in August 2020, as a pathetic means of frightening old people who believe everything they see on state television, that a foreign-backed coup was imminent. Needless to say after a bellicose appearance of state TV in military uniform threatening long prison sentences for the "plotters", they were released without charge ten days later.

Rumours that somehow Prigozhin guarantees Lukashenko's regime or that there is some plot to replace Lukashenko with Prigozhin are absolute drivel, like adding up two and two and getting 507 as the answer. No evidence whatever that Wagner will be incorporated into BY armed forces- BY doesn't have the money to pay them- nor that the endlessly trailed incursion from the north towards Kyiv will materialise.

It's been a fascinating few days but they've also shown that those who jump to quick and easy conclusions are usually wrong.

Anyway, that thread:

There’s a short video doing the rounds where someone contacts Wagner recruiting and is told to contact them on WhatsApp with name address etc . He asks would he be based in Belarus and the contact centre says he will initially report to their barracks in Krasnodar Russia .

Here it is :

 

[spitfire]

FFS they told me it was confidential.

Bastards.

 

[Ax^]

.

Moscow meanwhile announced investigations into an alleged involvement of Western secret services in the mutiny of the paramilitary group, ordered by Lavrov. US President Joe Biden has already come to deny any participation.

pure dark biden move man can blow up poorly designed subs with his mind

and his tendrils can take control of the Wagner group using hunter laptop

all whilst looking like he'll be blown over by the wind

close thing to a sith currently on the planet

 

[Humberto]

People inside and outside Russia have been placing their hopes in the younger Russian generation for decades. There seems to be little or no evidence that political attitudes among the young in Russia are significantly different from their elders. Most racist attacks in Russia (relatively rare in the SU and immediately afterwards) are, for example, carried out by the young, just like anywhere else. There also seems to be a similar divide between the well-educated, affluent young and the rest, and a massive layer of (cough) lumpen youth, understandably cynical and prey, in the absence of any left politics and where liberals are identified with the Yeltsin-era elite, to the most reactionary forces (again similar to anywhere else, but it's the size of this pool of people in Russia that's alarming.) Having said that, the well-educated kids of oligarchs, and 'New Russians' generally, often appear to be among Putin's most enthusiastic supporters. Where opposition currently surfaces it seems to be the input of veterans of the late Soviet era who fancied themselves as dissidents (often while ploughing their own comfortable furrow, and hardly sticking their necks out in Solzhenitsyn fashion) which is most decisive. Add to the mix that Russia has always been incurably corrupt, and you'll find that there are, at first glance unlikely, links between figures in this scattered and disorientated opposition and the oligarchs/regime figures they ostensibly oppose...

Putin, as we are currently seeing, is not a capitalist version of Stalin, and all-powerful. Russia had been 'dragged down' some years before most Russians had heard of him. He was handpicked by the Yeltsin 'family' (echoes of the Sopranos again...) to bring order to the chaos they had created by encouraging and creaming off their fortunes from 'Wild East' capitalism. Not to dismantle it, but to mediate. His hold on power largely depends on the success he has enjoyed in this role so far, but they, along with everybody else, east and west, seem not to have anticipated the depth of his personal ambitions, nor that he would, as it appears, come to adopt a sense of mission based on centuries-old mystical Russian nationalism. He obviously won't be there forever, but his death/retirement/imprisonment won't necessarily change anything. It could feasibly get worse.

Ukraine was a little version of Russia, burdened by all the same problems. Now they have to tackle corruption if only to curry favour with their EU sponsors. In doing so they have to go against the grain of centuries of doing things a certain way. As in Russia, corruption is what keeps the economy and society functioning. And in this they have more in common with the rest of the world than they do with us.

I'm not sure that is so clear.

Respondents are not sure about the anonymity of the surveys and suspect that they may be punished for openly expressing their views. Those who are against the war perceive pollsters as representatives of the authorities. The share of those polled who falsely claim they support the war may be about 15 percent. In addition, among those who say they support the war there may be many who do not actually have a position but only repeat the last thing they have heard in the media.

Many of the questions posed by the state-run pollsters such as VCIOM are worded to prompt socially acceptable answers. For example, in February VCIOM asked respondents whether they approved of Putin’s decision to recognize the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk “People’s Republics.” In effect, respondents were asked to say whether they agreed or disagreed with Putin.

In addition, opinion polls have become a political weapon. They not only help reveal public sentiment, they also shape it. Reproduced by the state media, they show how much support there is for the authoritarian regime. People hear that the majority supports the war, and this encourages fence-sitters to take the same stance.

Long Read: Russian Youth against War

www.wilsoncenter.org

 

[Humberto]

I mean there's significant dissent despite the drawbacks of expressing it whatever way you slice it, and apparently generational differences too.

 

[RD2003]

I mean there's significant dissent despite the drawbacks of expressing it whatever way you slice it, and apparently generational differences too.

I'm not denying that there's dissent. No society on earth is without dissent. The question is whether it can go anywhere in Russia, and what the outcome will be of the limitations placed on hopes (which circumstances dictate will be incoherent) by a society which has been traumatised for over 30 years already, is deeply divided and only set to become more so, the degree to which is dependent on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. And there are precedents.

As I hint at only a few posts ago, my personal impression of the late Perestroika period and immediate post-Perestroika period was that many of the young were keen for change, especially those that a westerner was most likely to meet and befriend. This, it should be noted, was in a society where the overall mood had lapsed into apathy after the initial, hesitant hopes unleashed by Gorbachev and co, as highlighted by the relatively muted response to the attempted coup of August 1991. Unfortunately, the change that came, partly through their (heavily choreographed-few things in Russia happen spontaneously) dissent made the rise of somebody like Putin inevitable. Those who favoured the anti-Soviet camp, often led by people who had been key figures in the Soviet state until very recently, had little idea of what change would look like, and were not prepared or equipped to handle those who ruthlessly moved into the brief power vacuum (apart from those who were ruthless enough themselves to follow them and find a foothold. Often their life expectancy was drastically reduced.) Furthermore, even back then much youthful rebellion took a reactionary form. The authoritarian figure in waiting had a ready-made, receptive audience among the young. How could this not be the case where the society they'd known was disintegrating before their eyes and 'shock therapy,' the only purported alternative, was about to fuck them over while simultaneously promising riches for all? By the mid-late 1990s there was a massive pool of younger people who were cynical about the Soviet past, their present miserable, impoverished reality and pretty much everything else, including the coming authoritarianism. But at least the latter held out the promise of a kind of revenge, especially against foreign interference, widely perceived as being responsible for the intolerable present.

I didn't revisit Russia between 1993 and 1997, but the different atmosphere in '97 was palpable. This included attitudes towards westerners and other foreigners, in general blamed by the young and older people alike among those who'd lost out post-USSR, for fucking them over. And this was in a society where the renewed nationalistic authoritarianism and creeping censorship of the media was still some years off.

It's necessary to remember that any mass rebellion against the current authoritarianism will have nothing to offer other than a rehashing of the post-Gorbachev period, as dictated by the western capital it will be similarly reliant upon, and the lack of existing alternatives to follow in the wider world*. In other words, the very things that eventually led to Putin.


*A prize awaits the first imbecile to accuse me of supporting Russian authoritarianism/Putin by stating this obvious truth.

 

[Humberto]

But there is apparently a generational shift.

 

[RD2003]

But there is apparently a generational shift.

Good. But it has to be viewed in light of what I've outlined above.

 

[Humberto]

Well you said there wasn't and there is. Glad you agree with the facts that you acted like an authority when you were talking shite.

 

[Humberto]

Oh I haven't read the heavily edited version yet. If something is worth posting I would generally make that the final draft.

 

[RD2003]

Well you said there wasn't and there is. Glad you agree with the facts that you acted like an authority when you were talking shite.

A so-called generational shift (according to polls conducted under restrictive conditions and so on) doesn't mean it's a generalised thing. It might be, but we see few signs of it.

 

[RD2003]

Oh I haven't read the heavily edited version yet. If something is worth posting I would generally make that the final draft.

Only edited for clarification, and editing doesn't matter as long as not done to alter what somebody else has convincingly refuted. In this case nobody had replied.

But instead of sniping and cut-and-pasting stuff from elsewhere, why not make your own case? I'm open to other viewpoints, and am even prepared to reply with more than petulant, content-free sneers.

You could start by outlining your predictions and hopes for the anti-Putin revolution.

 

[Humberto]

A so-called generational shift (according to polls conducted under restrictive conditions and so on) doesn't mean it's a generalised thing. It might be, but we see few signs of it.

We do see signs of it. Fuck sake lad.