The 2023 Russian Coup.

[Bingoman]

Is he wearing the same suit from Saturday?

 

[Flavour]

He's going to be making various rulings on what vehicles are and are not allowed in Moscow.

good cross-thread joke that, Wilf would never have done that

 

[LDC]

Live translation on Sky news, BBC flailing about with it.

Sky also reporting Russian MoD saying they've intercepted 2 UK RAF planes over the Black Sea.

 

[Flavour]

He's said so far:

• mutiny would have failed anyway
• world wanted to see Russian fratricide but Wagner made the "only right decision"
• Wagner men can either join the Russian Army, demobilize or go to Belarus
• he has specifically called out and honored the dead pilots shot down by Wagner yesterday
• we are united and won't be deviated from the one true path

typical stuff tbh

he also thanked Lukashenko for brokering a deal tbf, but said it was the "patriotism of our citizens" which played the decisive role

 

[Riklet]

Also had a crazy thought that might also be Belarus joining the war and opening a new front as there's rumours of statement from Lukashenko too. Or at least a greater role.

Would be a good distraction from the weekend.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Do the convicts in Wagner get to 'demobilise' and go home free men?

 

[LDC]

After Peskov said the statement would determine the fate of Russia I'd expect a little more tbh.

 

[Bingoman]

Was that it

 

[Flavour]

After Peskov said the statement would determine the fate of Russia I'd expect a little more tbh.

Hype man trying to get the crowd going when they're obviously a bit tired and over-egging the pudding, I think

 

[bimble]

would have been very pissed off if I’d stayed up past 9pm to hear that decisive statement about the future of Russia.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Do the convicts in Wagner get to 'demobilise' and go home free men?

You can be free in a coffin

 

[The39thStep]

Do the convicts in Wagner get to 'demobilise' and go home free men?

TUPE applies

 

[T & P]

What about Wagner fighters currently still fighting Putin’s war in Ukraine? If they refuse to joint the Russian AF, Putin would rather they leave the front line and go to Belarus than stay out and help the Russian forces on the ground?

 

[agricola]

What about Wagner fighters currently still fighting Putin’s war in Ukraine? If they refuse to joint the Russian AF, Putin would rather they leave the front line and go to Belarus than stay out and help the Russian forces on the ground?

Based on what he said, yes - those are the only two options.

 

[planetgeli]

Do the convicts in Wagner get to 'demobilise' and go home free men?

If you've done 6 months you get a pardon.

Murder, ‘alcohol and prostitutes’: Wagner convicts pardoned by Putin return to terrorise home towns

Violent criminals who served with the notorious Russian militia in Ukraine are terrorising the communities they return to

www.theguardian.com

 

[T & P]

If you've done 6 months you get a pardon.

Murder, ‘alcohol and prostitutes’: Wagner convicts pardoned by Putin return to terrorise home towns

Violent criminals who served with the notorious Russian militia in Ukraine are terrorising the communities they return to

www.theguardian.com

I wonder how many of the prisoners who joined and were sent to the front line make six months.

 

[strung out]

What about Wagner fighters currently still fighting Putin’s war in Ukraine? If they refuse to joint the Russian AF, Putin would rather they leave the front line and go to Belarus than stay out and help the Russian forces on the ground?

Wagner aren't on the front lines at the moment. They're used as offensive troops and are currently behind the lines in training camps after withdrawing from Bakhmut to be replaced by regular soldiers for the Ukrainian counter offensive.

 

[agricola]

I wonder how many of the prisoners who joined and were sent to the front line make six months.

IIRC Prizoghin claimed 32,000 of them had done that, though obviously the usual caveats apply.

32K Russian Ex-Convicts Return Home After Fighting – Wagner - The Moscow Times

Some 32,000 former prisoners recruited by the Wagner mercenary group have returned to Russia after fighting in Ukraine, the private military company’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said Sunday. “As of June 18, 2023, 32,000 persons previously convicted and who took part in the special military...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[DaveCinzano]

He's going to be making various rulings on what vehicles are and are not allowed in Moscow.

Typical Khan overreach

 

[Dogsauce]

Shoigu has been meeting troops in Ukraine today. Not normally one for the front lines he is probably there to emphasise his still-aliveness

Have we seen the other guy (Gerisamov?), it was rumoured he was in Rostov at one point. Beginning to wonder if he was on that flying command post plane that they shot down…

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well, with Putin saying Wagner troops can go to Belarus, it does seem to support reports that they will be setting-up camp there, but that leaves so many questions, which are unlikely to be answered for some weeks.

It could be a very scaled down operation, if large numbers decide to join the official Russian army and/or just go home, in which case it may be just a base for them to carry on their operations in the middle-east and Africa, whilst also bringing some level of protection to Prigozhin. But, that would still be a distraction to Ukraine, with concerns they could attack at any point. Having a base in Belarus, if they behave, could be an advantage to Lukashenko as a deterrent to any possible uprising there.

However, reports from Russia are saying Wagner recruitment centres have re-opened, so the presence in Belarus could be substantial, and more than they need for operations in the middle-east and Africa, and I doubt they will just sit there twiddling their thumbs, so they may be used to start a new northern attack on Ukraine, thus diverting resources that would otherwise be used for the counter-offensive to the south.

There's certainly an advantage to Putin to use them in that way, and resolve the issues between Wagner Group and Russian military, by leaving Wagner to do it's own thing in the north.

There's a lot of calls for the death of Prigozhin, but that could be difficult if a sizeable group of Wagner troops end-up in Belarus, so Putin could possibly have put that idea on hold for now, and for as long as Prigozhin can still be useful in some way, and knowing there will be opportunities in the future to finish him off.

The situation really is as clear as mud, and absolutely anything could happen.

 

[steveo87]

that or push Lukashenko out the window

This.

If and when Lukashenko dies/falls, Moscow have a ready made replacement.

 

[The39thStep]

Wagner still have troops in Syria

ISIS beats back Wagner offensive in central Syria

It has been an accepted fact that ISIS ceased being a territory-controlling entity in Syria after its March 2019 defeat in the town of Baghouz. Yet it is perhaps time to reevaluate this perspective on the group and its insurgent trajectory in the country. While recent massacres of civilians in...

www.mei.edu

 

[Pickman's model]

Wagner still have troops in Syria

ISIS beats back Wagner offensive in central Syria

It has been an accepted fact that ISIS ceased being a territory-controlling entity in Syria after its March 2019 defeat in the town of Baghouz. Yet it is perhaps time to reevaluate this perspective on the group and its insurgent trajectory in the country. While recent massacres of civilians in...

www.mei.edu

and how happy they are to be there out of himars range

 

[Pickman's model]

Well, with Putin saying Wagner troops can go to Belarus, it does seem to support reports that they will be setting-up camp there, but that leaves so many questions, which are unlikely to be answered for some weeks.

It could be a very scaled down operation, if large numbers decide to join the official Russian army and/or just go home, in which case it may be just a base for them to carry on their operations in the middle-east and Africa, whilst also bringing some level of protection to Prigozhin. But, that would still be a distraction to Ukraine, with concerns they could attack at any point. Having a base in Belarus, if they behave, could be an advantage to Lukashenko as a deterrent to any possible uprising there.

However, reports from Russia are saying Wagner recruitment centres have re-opened, so the presence in Belarus could be substantial, and more than they need for operations in the middle-east and Africa, and I doubt they will just sit there twiddling their thumbs, so they may be used to start a new northern attack on Ukraine, thus diverting resources that would otherwise be used for the counter-offensive to the south.

There's certainly an advantage to Putin to use them in that way, and resolve the issues between Wagner Group and Russian military, by leaving Wagner to do it's own thing in the north.

There's a lot of calls for the death of Prigozhin, but that could be difficult if a sizeable group of Wagner troops end-up in Belarus, so Putin could possibly have put that idea on hold for now, and for as long as Prigozhin can still be useful in some way, and knowing there will be opportunities in the future to finish him off.

The situation really is as clear as mud, and absolutely anything could happen.

and probably will

 

[Dogsauce]

Wagner have gone to Belarus as under the new system they aren’t allowed to operate as a PMC in Russia (everything now has to be under the MOD’s umbrella). So they will set up base in Belarus and continue doing all the stuff they do in Africa etc. but from there not Russia. Likely had fuck all to do with Ukraine, not likely to start an invasion from there for the same reason that Russia hasn’t for the last year or so (the terrain isn’t helpful and Ukraine is prepared).

 

[cupid_stunt]

Wagner have gone to Belarus as under the new system they aren’t allowed to operate as a PMC in Russia (everything now has to be under the MOD’s umbrella). So they will set up base in Belarus and continue doing all the stuff they do in Africa etc. but from there not Russia. Likely had fuck all to do with Ukraine, not likely to start an invasion from there for the same reason that Russia hasn’t for the last year or so (the terrain isn’t helpful and Ukraine is prepared).

Yeah, but they are mad bastards, if they were paid to do so, they probably would, however the Russian defence ministry has announced that Wagner are preparing to hand over their heavy military equipment to the Russian army, so in theory that probably eliminates the chances of them going into Ukraine from the north.

 

[teuchter]

So mercenaries will do something if they are paid to do it. It's great to have this level of analysis.

 

[Pickman's model]

So mercenaries will do something if they are paid to do it. It's great to have this level of analysis.

yeh far superior to anything you come out with

 

[MickiQ]

Not sure Lukashenko got a great deal out of this tbh, he may have won a few brownie points with Mad Bad Vlad in the short term but he might very well end up with a large experienced army that he has no control over living in his country. Given the makeup of this army it's not hard to imagine they will terrorise the local populace near wherever they're based.