The 2023 Russian Coup.

[The39thStep]

Not sure Lukashenko got a great deal out of this tbh, he may have won a few brownie points with Mad Bad Vlad in the short term but he might very well end up with a large experienced army that he has no control over living in his country. Given the makeup of this army it's not hard to imagine they will terrorise the local populace near wherever they're based.

Have they got a track record of terrorising the local populace near their bases in Russia ?

 

[kebabking]

I think Wagner will continue in its form as an instrument of Russian foreign policy - as a provider of services to dodgy regimes - and as a cash cow: everyone gets a cut from Wagners income, Putin, MFA, MOD, all the elites - and it would suit all concerned to meet keep both the strategic Russian interests and the cash going.

I doubt Wagner will continue to play a role as a major combatant in Ukraine - those days are (imv) gone.

The Belarus thing is, I think, complicated - Prigozhin is a secure hotel room watching Netflix before leaning how to fly is one thing, but hoardes of his goons is something else. They could be asset, but they could also be a threat to the balance he manages. They might even to decide that if they couldn't get to Moscow, maybe they could get to Minsk...

Lukashenko walks a fine line - he has to please Putin, but he also has to manage a security establishment, a population, and the economic elites who really don't want to get involved in Ukraine - it's always about doing the minimum possible that Putin wants/needs, and I imagine Lukashenko wants Wagner charging across the border, and shattering the complex political situation he balances on like he wants a shovel through the head.

 

[MickiQ]

Have they got a track record of terrorising the local populace near their bases in Russia ?

They've certainly got a track record of terrorising people in their home towns when de-mobilised and their record in Ukraine has been brutal. Given that they include a lot of violent criminals in their ranks, somehow I can't see them just sitting quietly in the barracks in Belarus passing the time playing cards and writing letters home to their mum.

 

[skyscraper101]

Given Belarus has now put it's army on full combat readiness, is it possible that as part of the deal all those thousands of mercenaries could be combined with the Belarussian army to open up a new attack front in the north of Ukraine? The east seems to be going nowhere for Russia so this may be a handy diversion if they could force Ukraine to fight on two fronts.

 

[The39thStep]

I think Wagner will continue in its form as an instrument of Russian foreign policy - as a provider of services to dodgy regimes - and as a cash cow: everyone gets a cut from Wagners income, Putin, MFA, MOD, all the elites - and it would suit all concerned to meet keep both the strategic Russian interests and the cash going.

I doubt Wagner will continue to play a role as a major combatant in Ukraine - those days are (imv) gone.

The Belarus thing is, I think, complicated - Prigozhin is a secure hotel room watching Netflix before leaning how to fly is one thing, but hoardes of his goons is something else. They could be asset, but they could also be a threat to the balance he manages. They might even to decide that if they couldn't get to Moscow, maybe they could get to Minsk...

Lukashenko walks a fine line - he has to please Putin, but he also has to manage a security establishment, a population, and the economic elites who really don't want to get involved in Ukraine - it's always about doing the minimum possible that Putin wants/needs, and I imagine Lukashenko wants Wagner charging across the border, and shattering the complex political situation he balances on like he wants a shovel through the head.

Speaking of shovels did anyone see loads when Wagner were having lunch in Rostov?

 

[LDC]

Have they got a track record of terrorising the local populace near their bases in Russia ?

From what I understand they don't have many permanent garrison bases as such, or at least not like a normal State military unit might have. They have a few training facilities they use, often near Russian military ones, but they are not that close to large civilian centres of population and when training they're probably much more restricted as to how they can come and go. I think they mostly operate overseas when actually employed, rather than sitting about like a full time military unit.

 

[The39thStep]

They've certainly got a track record of terrorising people in their home towns when de-mobilised and their record in Ukraine has been brutal. Given that they include a lot of violent criminals in their ranks, somehow I can't see them just sitting quietly in the barracks in Belarus passing the time playing cards and writing letters home to their mum.

I dunno Micki. Can’t say I’ve seen anything about this terror tbh but then again I haven’t looked , it’s 32c here and very close so I can’t be arsed to look either tbh

 

[The39thStep]

From what I understand they don't have many permanent garrison bases as such, or at least not like a normal State military unit might have. They have a few training facilities they use, often near Russian military ones, but they are not that close to large civilian centres of population and when training they're probably much more restricted as to how they can come and go. I think they mostly operate overseas when actually employed, rather than sitting about like a full time military unit.

I’m sure I read during the Saturday Supershow that they share at least one base with the Russian army?

 

[_Russ_]

Given Belarus has now put it's army on full combat readiness, is it possible that as part of the deal all those thousands of mercenaries could be combined with the Belarussian army to open up a new attack front in the north of Ukraine? The east seems to be going nowhere for Russia so this may be a handy diversion if they could force Ukraine to fight on two fronts.

Some might say that placing Priggy and the Wags over by there was a clever move, allowing Putin to say he has kicked Priggy out the Homeland whilst in reality keeping his forces on side and available based in the Russian Satellite Belarus.
As to what he plans to do with them....no idea, there will be an expert along shortly

 

[LDC]

I’m sure I read during the Saturday Supershow that they share at least one base with the Russian army?

That might be the one I've seen mentioned in articles as well, the same or very close location to Russian military base, and used as a training/transit facility more than a base where they all sit about. Ultimately they're in part a money making venture so I suspect that it's not in anyone's interest to have many of them sat about in a base using up money and not earning the company anything. (Sure they'll have a permanent staff of trainers, admin staff and higher ranking people though scattered about.)

 

[skyscraper101]

Some might say that placing Priggy and the Wags over by there was a clever move, allowing Putin to say he has kicked Priggy out the Homeland whilst in reality keeping his forces on side and available based in the Russian Satellite Belarus.
As to what he plans to do with them....no idea, there will be an expert along shortly

It just seems weird to just have them stationed over there doing nothing. The logical thing I'd have thought is to at least send them out to attack from the north and divert Ukrainian resources away from the East. I'm no military strategist though.

 

[The39thStep]

That might be the one I've seen mentioned in articles as well, the same or very close location to Russian military base, and used as a training/transit facility more than a base where they all sit about. Ultimately they're in part a money making venture and contracted so I suspect that it's not in anyone's interest to have many of themn sat about in a base using up money and not earning the company anything. (Sure they'll have a permanent staff of trainers, admin staff and higher ranking people though scattered about.)

I saw a visit to their HQ yesterday where the visitor met part of their marketing and comms section . They were open but waiting for the return of equipment , IT I assume .

 

[The39thStep]

That might be the one I've seen mentioned in articles as well, the same or very close location to Russian military base, and used as a training/transit facility more than a base where they all sit about. Ultimately they're in part a money making venture so I suspect that it's not in anyone's interest to have many of them sat about in a base using up money and not earning the company anything. (Sure they'll have a permanent staff of trainers, admin staff and higher ranking people though scattered about.)

That makes some sense imo seeing as they are contracted rather than a standing army . Also reduces the threat level of them terrorising locals where they are based MickiQ

 

[Dystopiary]

Nothing to add to these tweets but thought them worth posting.

 

[Rob Ray]

It's possible Lukashenko's deal and Prigozhin's presence is more on the lines of shoring up his premiership than mounting on-foot incursions to Ukraine. More difficult for internal revolt to succeed if there's a powerful mercenary army nearby, which solves a potential security headache for Russia.

 

[The39thStep]

I saw a visit to their HQ yesterday where the visitor met part of their marketing and comms section . They were open but waiting for the return of equipment , IT I assume .

LDC

 

[gosub]

Given Belarus has now put it's army on full combat readiness, is it possible that as part of the deal all those thousands of mercenaries could be combined with the Belarussian army to open up a new attack front in the north of Ukraine? The east seems to be going nowhere for Russia so this may be a handy diversion if they could force Ukraine to fight on two fronts.

I can't see the arrival of Wagner in Belerus is going to feel like a stabilising influence there.

 

[Pickman's model]

Given Belarus has now put it's army on full combat readiness, is it possible that as part of the deal all those thousands of mercenaries could be combined with the Belarussian army to open up a new attack front in the north of Ukraine? The east seems to be going nowhere for Russia so this may be a handy diversion if they could force Ukraine to fight on two fronts.

it's a cunning masterstroke by president putin, who has wrong-footed his adversaries by staging an imaginative diversion - having his mercenary forces appear to rebel - and to use this to transport them to belarus so he can mount an offensive into the north of ukraine while the ukrainians have aligned their forces to assail the russian-occupied areas of their country. now the ukrainians have mounted their offensive it's very hard for them to reorient their army to face this new threat. so putin's played a blinder, confused the fuck out of everybody else, and for the loss of a few military aircraft regained the military initiative. perhaps.

 

[skyscraper101]

I can't see the arrival of Wagner in Belerus is going to feel like a stabilising influence there.

That’s my point, they’d be a useful destabilising force (in northern Ukraine). An expendable force and far away from the East.

 

[Pickman's model]

That’s my point, they’d be a useful destabilising force (in northern Ukraine). An expendable force and far away from the East.

but requiring troops in northern ukraine to be there if they march south

 

[skyscraper101]

it's a cunning masterstroke by president putin, who has wrong-footed his adversaries by staging an imaginative diversion - having his mercenary forces appear to rebel - and to use this to transport them to belarus so he can mount an offensive into the north of ukraine while the ukrainians have aligned their forces to assail the russian-occupied areas of their country. now the ukrainians have mounted their offensive it's very hard for them to reorient their army to face this new threat. so putin's played a blinder, confused the fuck out of everybody else, and for the loss of a few military aircraft regained the military initiative. perhaps.

More of a turn a crisis into an opportunity. A ‘win win’ if you want.

 

[Pickman's model]

More of a turn a crisis into an opportunity. A ‘win win’ if you want.

we'll see when the russian archives are unsealed many years from now.

 

[skyscraper101]

but requiring troops in northern ukraine to be there if they march south

Yes, and not in the East where they are making advances.

 

[bimble]

Why would anybody join the standard military instead of Wagner? Looks like the pay is significantly better.

 

[_Russ_]

Russia's Defense Ministry says preparations are underway for Wagner Group to transfer its heavy equipment back to the military. (Some of this weaponry was used over the weekend to kill roughly a dozen Russian pilots.)

 

[LDC]

Why would anybody join the standard military instead of Wagner? Looks like the pay is significantly better.

Depends. And I suspect maybe has changed dramatically last year or so. PMCs are usually much smaller than Wagner is, so have limited employment opportunities, and generally employ people that are already trained. Many also specialise in a particular field more and expect their employees to have recieved that training and experience elsewhere already.

How it is with Wagner who are much larger and also have recruited from more err... unconventional sources I have no idea. They have seemed to run their own basic military training though which is quite different to PMCs in the US and UK etc. who like I said generally employee ex-military with reasonable experience. It's one the the things that makes it quite a different beast to Blackwater type PMCs, it's more of a significantly sized private army, more like some of the Mexican cartel armies but with State support?

 

[strung out]

That’s my point, they’d be a useful destabilising force (in northern Ukraine). An expendable force and far away from the East.

Good luck to them without any tanks or artillery.

 

[_Russ_]

Good luck to them without any tanks or artillery.

Someone could always give them some

 

[planetgeli]

it's more of a significantly sized private army, more like some of the Mexican cartel armies but with State support?

Only a small quibble but - wasn't Putin even denying the existence of Wagner not so long back?

And Mexican cartel armies get plenty of State support, just it's all unofficial and basically corruption.

Not that much different. It's all gold-digging with guns.

 

[strung out]

Someone could always give them some

If there were any going spare, we'd have already seen them in Ukraine.