The 2023 Russian Coup.

[maomao]

This is amusing right? I mean it's a little bit scary but it doesn't feel like a global thermonuclear war trigger just yet and it definitely harms Putin even if he wins.

 

[MickiQ]

I wonder what the non-Wagner Russian troops in Ukraine are thinking about now, I would imagine this would be a good time to steal what few white goods that haven't already been looted and piss off whilst their officers are distracted. As for the Ukrainians they must be considering their options do they press their advantage now or wait and see what happens? The Russians fired 20 missiles at Kyiv last night it will be interesting to see how many they send tonight.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The dog is concerned

 

[JimW]

Could arrive in Moscow in 4 hours, 10pm Moscow time.

Time for a couple of swift ones before closing time then on with the coup.

 

[RD2003]

A well organised coup would have seen the revolutionairies already in the capital.

As it stands I doubt they will make it to Moskow as there will be defences erected, the roads are already closed,

I agree, I think. A well-organised coup would have seen significant figures in Moscow and leading army and FSB figures already showing their hands and making demands on Putin. As far as reported, this doesn't seem to be happening.

If it's no more than the trumpted 25000 Wagnerists plus rumoured unresisting conscripts, this smacks more of an ill-planned putsch based on a whim.

 

[RD2003]

This is amusing right? I mean it's a little bit scary but it doesn't feel like a global thermonuclear war trigger just yet and it definitely harms Putin even if he wins.

As some have hinted, though, it's what happens if Putin loses and centralised authority collapses that really matters.

 

[spitfire]

For Herr Wagner to have convinced 10 - 25k rabidly patriotic right wing Russian mercenaries to follow him in this endeavour is not to be underestimated imo.

They're not in this for shits and giggles and have spent the last several months literally fighting in the trenches for Mother Russia.

To have persuaded them this is the way is an achievement in itself so I give them more than a fighting chance of having some sort of success, what that means is obviously impossible for me to predict. They're up against ennui and inexperienced internal security forces. Panic may also be setting in if they keep up this momentum.

Or they could all be immolated by the RuAF in short order...but nothing much has happened yet.

 

[bimble]

I’m going with this guys take, over welweit.

The Prigozhin Coup seems pretty damn well organized

OK we are about 12 hours into what is clearly an attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin to topple the leadership of the Russian military (and very possibly the Russian government). This all started with an announcement by Prigozhin yesterday that the Russian army had launched a missile attack on a Wagner...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

 

[Callie]

The dog is concerned

View attachment 380586

Concerned about how this may impact being taken for a walk?

 

[spitfire]

Time for a couple of swift ones before closing time then on with the coup.

 

[maomao]

well-organised coup would have seen significant figures in Moscow and leading army and FSB figures already showing their hands and making demands on Putin.

Strategically this is nonsens surely. Why would they play their hands before they had to? We'll see what happens when they get there; there doesn't seem to have been fierce resistance so far.

 

[tommers]

 

[two sheds]

I was going to say that Ukraine might a be lot more forgiving of the Russian actions if Putin is toppled and troops withrdawn but there again it'll be Wagner doing the toppling.

 

[Pickman's model]

What seems to me unanswered is what action wagner would take to Ukraine if they get rid of shoigu and gerasimov, let alone putin. There's no way that I can see Russia would go whoops my bad atm with likely punitive reparations - my bet is they'd look to be more effective than the last lot: e2a if it turns out so simple tho i would be surprised. lots of unhappiness - more than we've seen over the past year - may unfold

 

[Leighsw2]

Ho ho ho like british military hands arent covered in mercenary blood

Keenie Meenie

Keenie Meenie Services - the most powerful mercenary company you've never heard of - was involved in war crimes around the world from Sri Lanka to Nicaragua ...

www.plutobooks.com

Yeah, but it is actually quite fun to watch these bastards killing each other while people like you desperately think up excuses as to why it doesn't matter.

 

[RD2003]

Strategically this is nonsens surely. Why would they play their hands before they had to? We'll see what happens when they get there; there doesn't seem to have been fierce resistance so far.

I'm going off what I seem to remember in 1991 (I was in Moscow.) Leading figures were declaring for or against what was happening as soon as it became clear it was underway.

 

[RD2003]

What seems to me unanswered is what action wagner would take to Ukraine if they get rid of shoigu and gerasimov, let alone putin. There's no way that I can see Russia would go whoops my bad atm with likely punitive reparations - my bet is they'd look to be more effective than the last lot

And even if Prighozin wins, it won't just be Wagner who get to decide.

 

[kebabking]

Yes, I know this goat rodeo might not be quite as funny by the end of next week, but it's funny as fuck now...

 

[spitfire]

What seems to me unanswered is what action wagner would take to Ukraine if they get rid of shoigu and gerasimov, let alone putin. There's no way that I can see Russia would go whoops my bad atm with likely punitive reparations - my bet is they'd look to be more effective than the last lot

I was thinking the same but if this chaos continues then the Ukrainians can take full advantage of the inevitable loss of overall C&C for an extended period of time. If there is a transfer of power (or consolidation if Putin wins through), then whoever is in charge will be very distracted for some time. So hopefully that will mean even if a newer more efficient crowd take over it will all have played out in Southern Ukraine already.

 

[Leighsw2]

Outlandish crazy talk part two, and mostly joking: perfect time for Poland to grab Kaliningrad?

It's actually Königsberg and it belongs to Germany.

 

[ska invita]

Yeah, but it is actually quite fun to watch these bastards killing each other while people like you desperately think up excuses as to why it doesn't matter.

What do I think doesn't matter?

 

[Artaxerxes]

The dog is concerned

View attachment 380586

Sadness in its eyes

 

[strung out]

This is amusing right?

Need to check with teuchter.

 

[Bingoman]

News outlets are reporting that Moscows mayor has declared a state of emergency for the capital and told residents to stay home and not go to work on Monday

 

[Dystopiary]

Video from Belarusian Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment (caveat emptor etc):

 

[Flavour]

Unless I am missing something the coup doesn't seem that well organised ..

A well organised coup would have seen the revolutionairies already in the capital.

As it stands I doubt they will make it to Moskow as there will be defences erected, the roads are already closed,

Why do you even bother?

 

[spitfire]

News outlets are reporting that Moscows mayor has declared a state of emergency for the capital and told residents to stay home and not go to work on Monday

Cool. Can they march on london next?

 

[maomao]

told residents to stay home and not go to work on Monday

Fucking Russians have all the luck.

 

[weltweit]

Wagner chief's 24 hours of chaos in Russia

Wagner's mercenary boss threatened an armed rebellion but pulled back from marching on Moscow.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[LDC]

Some level of enjoyment/amusement at how the phrase, "It's a rapidly evolving situation" is becoming stock commentator-speak meaning "I really don't have a fucking clue." in response to a journalist's question about what's going on.