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Sweden and coronavirus

It's unfathomable to me what they think they're doing, then!

Probably playing the same games with rhetoric and timing and bringing measures in in a bunch of stages that the Netherlands, the UK and the USA have done to varying degrees. There has not been zero mitigation up till this point, and they too seem to be approaching the moment where more measures will happen.

Take a look at this for a better idea of the moment Sweden is really at right now:


The agency says that Sweden's 'day zero' -- the moment that the curve mapping the number of seriously ill people starts to rapidly incline -- has not yet arrived.

That's on a national scale.

Stockholm may be nearer to its "day zero" than other parts of the country, or it may have arrived. The Swedish capital, the country's worst-hit region, on Wednesday evening reported that 18 coronavirus patients had died within 24 hours, almost doubling the total deaths in the region.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told the TT newswire on Thursday that it was "not impossible" that Stockholm had now reached 'day zero'. "But we need a few days in order to know that," he said.

Asked why Stockholm's regional healthcare director had described the coronavirus situation in the capital as a "storm" just hours after Tegnell said the national situation was "relatively stable", the state epidemiologist said: "There is no discrepancy. Things can happen in four hours."

The curves show, for example, that the region of Skåne, in a worst case scenario, might need at least 500 isolated beds and around 200 intensive care units when the need for medical assistance is at its highest point.

This peak is expected to arrive around 80 days after 'day zero'.

A region like Dalarna in the central part of the country is expected to need 110 isolated care units and around 40 intensive care units after 64 days.

And Stockholm, which today reported a sharp rise in deaths and infections, is forecast to require around 900 isolated beds and at least 250 intensive care beds 87 days after day zero.

He added that it should be possible to delay 'day zero' by following the recommendations advised by the agency: reducing social contacts, staying at home when showing any signs of symptoms, and most importantly by ensuring that the at-risk elderly members of the population aren't affected.

People in Sweden have been asked to avoid non-essential visits to elderly relatives, and those in risk groups including the over-70 age group have been urged to self-isolate, avoiding all social contacts including shopping.
 
Yeah the stance described at the start of the thread is fading away sure enough.

Gatherings of 500 is now gatherings of 50.


Sweden on Friday reduced the limit on permitted public gatherings to a maximum of 50 people, as the Prime Minister urged the population to follow authorities' recommendations to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

The limit was previously set at 500 people, on March 11th, with organisers of smaller events -- especially those involving people travelling from different areas -- simply asked to carry out a risk assessment first, consider online alternatives to in-person events, and to take safety precautions.

On its website at the time, the Public Health Agency said the limit of 500 was in place because: "The measure is very intrusive for individuals and a restriction of fundamental rights. It is important not to restrict more than necessary and several factors have been taken into account in the assessment. Larger events run the risk of increasing the spread of infection as they attract participants from different parts of the country."

But Carlson said on Friday: "It's time that we set a new norm for gatherings and meetings."

He noted that the vast majority of events would be affected by this more restrictive limit, which brings Sweden more in line with other European countries.

The rules apply to public gatherings, but Carlson said they should also be used as a guideline even for private events.
 
I suspect Sweden's government probably has some "this is just a flu" types in leading positions and they are acting on their own beliefs and have not yet been persuaded by their scientific and medical advisers.

I know an individual who stuck to the this is just flu line for a long time until suddenly they had a eureka moment and began then preaching how serious the situation is.
 
I suspect Sweden's government probably has some "this is just a flu" types in leading positions and they are acting on their own beliefs and have not yet been persuaded by their scientific and medical advisers.
Sweden’s response is driven by its Public Health Agency which is completely independent from the government. Government in Sweden doesn't have any power to influence this policy.
 
Problem is with the medical and scientific establishments themselves. Britain's in such a mess because the CMO, his deputy, and Chief Scientist have enabled the government. Any one could've brought the policies to a halt by threatening to resign and speak out.
 
Sweden’s response is driven by its Public Health Agency which is completely independent from the government. Government in Sweden doesn't have any power to influence this policy.
Oh, that does sound odd then, although I gather the scientific group that advises government in the UK (I forget their name) has been very hotly debating their positions as the weeks go by.
 
There's a dogmatic refusal to try and halt and reverse the spread of Covid-19 among some Western doctors and scientists. A catastrophic mix of fatalism and therapeutic nihilism. It's not hopeless, they can be fought. Doctors in France went to court to get policy changed, and some Dutch provinces rebelled and started mass testing. Expect to see more of this as the crisis worsens.
 
Oh, that does sound odd then, although I gather the scientific group that advises government in the UK (I forget their name) has been very hotly debating their positions as the weeks go by.

Try thinking of all these countries as if they are actually following a very similar approach, with the largest variation being only in the timing of their epidemics, when their measures are introduced, and the rhetoric of their leaders.

Especially given the way they introduce different levels of lockdown as their epidemics hit key milestones, and the way they choose to ready people for the next step (or deny that the next step is just a matter of time). Just because some of the elected politicians in some of those countries take the opportunity to posture and make it sound like they are taking extra care of the economy, liberty etc, doesnt mean they will actually end up doing much differently when the time comes that their epidemics demand the toughest of action.
 
So you have two approaches: trying to achieve "herd immunity" via controlled spread, which flouts WHO advice, flies in the face of clinical data, has failed disastrously everywhere else it's been tried, and is ethically repugnant; and early suppression via aggressive testing, tracing and quarantine, with all countries that've adopted this approach seeing vastly fewer cases and deaths to date. Yes, correlation isn't causation, and yes, we don't know what the future holds, but if the precautionary principle doesn't apply here, when does it?

Agree with all of this, except for the precautionary principle which is a load of bollocks. If we'd discovered and consistently applied it since the early days of humanity, we'd still be dodging sabre-toothed tigers and shivering in dark caves at night because starting fires is "tOo dAnGeRoUs".
 
The policy will be driven by the personalities of the Swedes themselves too. The degree of trust they have in each other and in their public agencies is total. So the agency knows if they tell people to behave in a certain way they will do it instantly. People know anybody with symptoms is self isolating and isn’t out spreading infection.

I was chatting on WhatsApp to a friend from Stockholm today about his opinion on the policy. His response was that unlike most of the internet he hasn’t become an expert overnight and so he is happy with the advice.

What happens if the Public Health Agency have got this totally wrong is another question
 
Agree with all of this, except for the precautionary principle which is a load of bollocks. If we'd discovered and consistently applied it since the early days of humanity, we'd still be dodging sabre-toothed tigers and shivering in dark caves at night because starting fires is "tOo dAnGeRoUs".
Reasonable precautions! Total safety is of course impossible. There's a vast spectrum between chasing that rainbow, and defeatism.
 
Reasonable precautions! Total safety is of course impossible. There's a vast spectrum between chasing that rainbow, and defeatism.

But that's the rub, isn't it? Who gets to decide what is reasonable? We can already see the problems that happen when someone decides that our elderly and infirm relatives are a worthy sacrifice to the ever-thirsting god, The Economy.

Seems to be very hollow, as principles go.
 
The policy will be driven by the personalities of the Swedes themselves too. The degree of trust they have in each other and in their public agencies is total. So the agency knows if they tell people to behave in a certain way they will do it instantly. People know anybody with symptoms is self isolating and isn’t out spreading infection.

I was chatting on WhatsApp to a friend from Stockholm today about his opinion on the policy. His response was that unlike most of the internet he hasn’t become an expert overnight and so he is happy with the advice.

What happens if the Public Health Agency have got this totally wrong is another question
If that's the case, it's dangerous in the extreme. No government or expert's infallible, especially not in an emergency when panic and groupthink abound. It's not necessary to become an epidemiologist to look at what works and why. Sweden justifiably prides herself on her democracy. Giving a select group carte blanche to set policy is technocracy.

When your policy drastically contradicts those of surrounding states and the countries that have, to date, been most successful in suppressing Covid-19, it's the duty of every citizen who's able to do all they can to pressure government and doctors into changing policy.
 
But that's the rub, isn't it? Who gets to decide what is reasonable? We can already see the problems that happen when someone decides that our elderly and infirm relatives are a worthy sacrifice to the ever-thirsting god, The Economy.

Seems to be very hollow, as principles go.
Ultimately what the public will bear. It's riddled with flaws, but what's the alternative?
 
Agree with all of this, except for the precautionary principle which is a load of bollocks. If we'd discovered and consistently applied it since the early days of humanity, we'd still be dodging sabre-toothed tigers and shivering in dark caves at night because starting fires is "tOo dAnGeRoUs".

Well if they can't do proper risk assessments that's where they belong :(
 
The policy will be driven by the personalities of the Swedes themselves too. The degree of trust they have in each other and in their public agencies is total.

It certainly isn’t total. You could safely characterise it as high, but there is a lot of unease here about the approach the authorities are taking, and the press have been vilifying the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell in particular. It doesn’t help that he’s something of a hapless character who seems to make a habit of misquoting figures and appearing to be a week behind the news.

In the daily press briefings they have explained what they are trying to achieve is not exactly full “herd immunity” where the virus is allowed to ravage unabated through the country until over half the population achieves immunity, but rather a somewhat smaller step in that direction, by allowing some to be ill (at a manageable rate) so as to get a degree of that “herd immunity”. It’s an important distinction and the key point is the reason they are doing this is because they anticipate that after this first outbreak settles down through the summer, the virus will return in autumn and at that point, the extent to which there is “herd immunity”, or let’s say the number of people who have recovered from the virus, becomes highly significant in determining how high the peak infection rate becomes (and thus the death rate).

It’s unsurprising the Swedes are ploughing their own path and pursuing a different path to most other countries - they take pride in this kind of approach in many spheres of society. To an outsider it’s easy to say it seems the Swedes have got it wrong, but we will only know this for sure in retrospect. Do I feel safe living here through this period? Yes, but I’m staying home for the next couple of months at least and only sending the wife out for shopping. Most swedes do appear to be underestimating the threat to themselves, reassured as they are by the toothless measures in place.

As elbows noted above, they’ve just reduced the mass gatherings limit to 50, but it doesn’t apply to schools, workplaces, stores, gyms or transportation hubs (railway, bus or coach stations). Bonkers if you ask me!
 
Well, South Korea didn't have a lockdown, but they tested 20,000 people every day and contact traced and isolated all infected people very effectively. I can't see any evidence that Sweden is doing that though.
 
It certainly isn’t total. You could safely characterise it as high, but there is a lot of unease here about the approach the authorities are taking, and the press have been vilifying the chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell in particular. It doesn’t help that he’s something of a hapless character who seems to make a habit of misquoting figures and appearing to be a week behind the news.

In the daily press briefings they have explained what they are trying to achieve is not exactly full “herd immunity” where the virus is allowed to ravage unabated through the country until over half the population achieves immunity, but rather a somewhat smaller step in that direction, by allowing some to be ill (at a manageable rate) so as to get a degree of that “herd immunity”. It’s an important distinction and the key point is the reason they are doing this is because they anticipate that after this first outbreak settles down through the summer, the virus will return in autumn and at that point, the extent to which there is “herd immunity”, or let’s say the number of people who have recovered from the virus, becomes highly significant in determining how high the peak infection rate becomes (and thus the death rate).

It’s unsurprising the Swedes are ploughing their own path and pursuing a different path to most other countries - they take pride in this kind of approach in many spheres of society. To an outsider it’s easy to say it seems the Swedes have got it wrong, but we will only know this for sure in retrospect. Do I feel safe living here through this period? Yes, but I’m staying home for the next couple of months at least and only sending the wife out for shopping. Most swedes do appear to be underestimating the threat to themselves, reassured as they are by the toothless measures in place.

As elbows noted above, they’ve just reduced the mass gatherings limit to 50, but it doesn’t apply to schools, workplaces, stores, gyms or transportation hubs (railway, bus or coach stations). Bonkers if you ask me!
How does your wife feel about being sent out to shop?
 
How does your wife feel about being sent out to shop?

She knows she’s dispensable.

Edit: ok, serious answer then. She prefers it that way as she knows if one of us gets it, we both will and she doesn’t trust me not to touch my face every ten seconds, lick the fridge windows in the supermarket and otherwise compromise us both by absent-mindedly doing something stupid. And she’s right not to. I have form.
 
Good post. Seems to me their approach is much the same as the UK's.
With much the same results so far. Who has tested the most in Europe? Germany. Who seems to be doing best thus far in Europe at managing their outbreak? Germany. Outside of Europe, who tested most? S Korea. Outside of Europe, who has effectively neutralised their outbreak with minimal deaths? S Korea.

Seems to me only some are learning the rather obvious lessons here. Sweden appears to be suffering from the same kind of 'exceptionalism' that the British are famous for. Worrying for them given how few acute places they have in their hospitals - surprisingly, they're not well-stocked. Who is well-stocked? Well Germany of course...
 
South Korea dont think they have neutralised their outbreak, and Germanys numbers are not that special either.

A combination of testing, the timing of social distancing measures, and infection control in hospitals can still make a real difference in some countries. But I urge caution about quite what that difference will be - the countries that some think have dodged the bullet probably havent, and Germany is currently seeing about 60 deaths a day, with the expectation that rate will continue to rise just like it has elsewhere.
 
The official death toll has UK and Sweden neck and neck with 10 and 11 deaths per million each.
Sweden currently has more cases per million (304 to UK's 214). But they might be testing more people-per-million too.
 
South Korea dont think they have neutralised their outbreak, and Germanys numbers are not that special either.
That is true, but they have achieved what they have achieved without a lockdown / have tested some 270,000 people, at 20,000 a day. I am just trying to see what Germany have done right now, at first glance their health service does seem more prepared and better resourced than many other EU countries.

A combination of testing, the timing of social distancing measures, and infection control in hospitals can still make a real difference in some countries. But I urge caution about quite what that difference will be - the countries that some think have dodged the bullet probably havent, and Germany is currently seeing about 60 deaths a day, with the expectation that rate will continue to rise just like it has elsewhere.
 
Deaths seems slightly more consistent.
You'd hope so. It depends on whether cause of death in those with pre-existing conditions is marked as COVID-19 or the pre-existing condition.

Sorry, "hope" probably not the best word to use there.
 
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