Somerton and Frome by-election

[PR1Berske]

Caused by the resignation of David Warburton, under many shadows of alleged behaviour.

Constituency map:


Previous result:

 

[ruffneck23]

It's weird cos I know a lot of people down that way and none of them would ever vote tory...

 

[Puddy_Tat]

no local elections there this year. 2022 election to the new somerset unitary council, which got a lib dem majority

i can't face trying to work out which council wards cover the constituency

 

[kenny g]

It's weird cos I know a lot of people down that way and none of them would ever vote tory...

Probably the others are pretty committed though. Memories of farmers barricading their land back in the 89's spring to mind.

 

[[62]]

It's weird cos I know a lot of people down that way and none of them would ever vote tory...

Yeah, Frome is one of those alternative type places like Stroud and Totnes and the old Somerset coalfield towns on the border of the constituency still vote Labour in numbers. Guess they're just outnumbered by all the rural Tories.

 

[Riklet]

Frome itself is full of liberals and hippies but that's a much bigger area.

Still. I would put money on a swing to Lib Dem.

 

[tim]

It was Liberal between 1997 and 2015.

 

[BusLanes]

Seems like a baked on Lib win. If just because they have been campaigning for at least a year.

 

[kenny g]

Yeah, Frome is one of those alternative type places like Stroud and Totnes and the old Somerset coalfield towns on the border of the constituency still vote Labour in numbers. Guess they're just outnumbered by all the rural Tories.

Stroud constituency is Tory. Maybe lots of the supposed alternative types put their crosses next to the devil on behalf of their wallets.

 

[kebabking]

Stroud constituency is Tory. Maybe lots of the supposed alternative types put their crosses next to the devil on behalf of their wallets.

Stroud has been swapping between Lab and Tory for 25 years - they are pretty much neck and neck at most elections, majority of 5k is the absolute top end.

 

[marty21]

Can't see the Tories winning - they are a toxic brand

 

[BusLanes]

Well he's had now resigned resigned (as contrasted to Dorries who resigned but didn't resign properly). People who know these things tell me the election date could be as early as 20 July

 

[StoneRoad]

I wonder how many people will hold their nose and vote tactically to ensure someone "not a tory" wins that seat ?

 

[BusLanes]

I wonder how many people will hold their nose and vote tactically to ensure someone "not a tory" wins that seat ?

Presumably quite a lot if local elections in May are anything to go by. Although not in this area apparently (no election I mean)

 

[PR1Berske]

On a politics forum I lurk, talk on this seat is about the future, as the proposed Frome is a genuine Labour target, so they would be foolish to just let the LibDems think this is another typical gain in rural Tory England.

 

[andysays]

David Warburton: Ex-MP says Me Too's influence too strong​

A former Conservative MP who resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct has claimed the Me Too movement's "pendulum has swung too far". David Warburton stood down as the MP for Somerton and Frome in Somerset on 17 June after admitting taking cocaine. After resigning, he took aim at the current state of the Me Too campaign.

 

[BusLanes]

Probably was too strong to keep a sexual harasser as a MP yes.

 

[PR1Berske]

Candidates

Lorna Irene Bromley CORKE (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Martin John DIMERY (Green)
Sarah Joanne DYKE (Liberal Democrats)
Bruce David EVANS (Reform UK)
Neil William GUILD (Labour)
Rosie MITCHELL (Independent)
Faye Marie PURBRICK (Conservative)
Peter Martin RICHARDSON (UKIP)

 

[PR1Berske]

Cross posting this as it touches on two subjects

 

[BusLanes]

I can absolutely see that the kind of person you run in a general election where the seat is unwinnable might not be the person you want to run a high profile by election but you'd at least short list them?

 

[SpookyFrank]

I can absolutely see that the kind of person you run in a general election where the seat is unwinnable might not be the person you want to run a high profile by election but you'd at least short list them?

They're not even bothering to pretend any more.

 

[PR1Berske]

Ah, I think the tweet has been deleted...?

It was the former Labour candidate resigning from the Party, noting he hadn't been shortlisted, the Party hierarchy run things in a way he doesn't agree with, and the view now familiar complaints about the national party overruling local decisions.

 

[StoneRoad]

After the polling stations have shut at 22:00, now the waiting begins as the votes are counted.

Not staying up for these three tonight.

 

[Bingoman]

You got to love the Lib Dems, they just claim victory despite having no result yet

 

[andysays]

You got to love the Lib Dems, they just claim victory despite having no result yet

Turns out on this occasion they were right

 

[Elpenor]

Interesting to see if the Lib Dem’s will convert there by election success in the SW to the general election.

 

[BusLanes]

You got to love the Lib Dems, they just claim victory despite having no result yet

Usually the bigger three take a lot of data about the voters during the campaign or before and then when that's lined up against the information they get in the day at the voting booth or otherwise they will have a fair idea of how it's going.

When they are winning big it should be clear by end of day at least.

They had me fooled on social media, thinking it would be a close win probably.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Cross posting this as it touches on two subjects

Oh, I was wondering why the Labour share had dropped from 12.9 to 2.6.