Selby and Ainsty by-election

[PR1Berske]

We've lost another one.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

a chorus of 'who the heck's he?'

 

[bluescreen]

Good riddance

Nigel Adams MP, Selby and Ainsty

Read Nigel Adams's contributions to Parliament, including speeches and questions, investigate their voting record, and get email alerts on their activity

www.theyworkforyou.com

 

[PR1Berske]

(Most of) the constituency map

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Santino]

Do we need a general Tory resignation thread?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

no council elections there this year, and it's part of a bigger 'north yorkshire council' which had a tory majority in 2022.

 

[Bingoman]

What is Labour and lib Dems chances here?

 

[cupid_stunt]

What is Labour and lib Dems chances here?

Electoral Calculus predicts a 55% chance of a Labour win, against 45% for the Tories.

Electoral Calculus

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

[danny la rouge]

What’s the Selby date?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

What’s the Selby date?

i think the current government is in the 'reduced to clear' section...

 

[Bingoman]

Isn't this seat getting split up at the next election?

 

[PR1Berske]

It's reverting to just "Selby" I think. My signal is terrible so I can't get on the Boundary Commission website to check.

 

[PR1Berske]

Isn't this seat getting split up at the next election?

Light blue is proposed, dark blue is current.

 

[planetgeli]

Interestingly it seems Adams, who once resigned from May's government because she was dangerously Marxist (she spoke to Corbyn about Brexit), seems to have left for exactly the same reasons as Nadine whatsherface - he was not on Johnson's list of gravy trainers and thought he should be.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[[62]]

Interesting that he doesn't mention his time playing Len from This Country.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[PR1Berske]

Candidates :

Andrew Philip Gray (no ballot paper description)
Claire Holmes (Conservative)
Mike Jordan (no ballot paper description)
Dave Kent (Reform UK)
Keir Alexander Mather (Labour)
Nick Palmer (Independent)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)
Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP)
Matt Walker (Liberal Democrat)
Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green)
John William Waterston (SDP)
Luke John Wellock (Climate Party)
"YORKSHIRE TYKE" Tyler Wilson-Kerr (Independent)

 

[StoneRoad]

Well, the polls are close & de votes are in, now they need to be counted.

Not staying up, even with three results on the go.

 

[platinumsage]

Keir Mather (Lab) 16,456 (45.96%)
Claire Holmes (C) 12,295 (34.34%)
Arnold Warneken (Green) 1,838 (5.13%)
Mike Jordan (ND) 1,503 (4.20%)
Dave Kent (Reform) 1,332 (3.72%)
Matt Walker (LD) 1,188 (3.32%)
Nick Palmer (Ind) 342 (0.96%)
John Waterston (Soc Dem) 314 (0.88%)
Sir Archibald Stanton (Loony) 172 (0.48%)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage) 162 (0.45%)
Andrew Gray (ND) 99 (0.28%)
Tyler Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 67 (0.19%)
Luke Wellock (Climate) 39 (0.11%)

 

[xenon]

What is ND?

Oh I’ve just seen above. Weirdos.

 

[Bingoman]

What is ND?

Oh I’ve just seen above. Weirdos.

No description appentley

 

[Rob Ray]

Amusingly, while Labour's busy backslapping itself about the Selby win, it appears they pulled out a considerably lower vote than Corbyn-era candidate David Bowgett in 2017.





Makes a bit of a mockery of the Graun's breathless suggestion based on today's results that "Labour is on course to rebuild the electoral coalition that previously brought it victory" tbh. When people say this is more about Tory voters not bothering they're 100% correct, something like 20,000 of them simply didn't turn up. Starmer's strategy is entirely reliant not on people wanting Labour, but on the Tories remaining abjectly unelectable.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Yeah it looks more like Tory voters mostly couldn't be bothered to go out and vote rather than they decided to switch to Labour. Lib Dem vote went down 3.5K too.

Keir Mather (Lab) 16,456 (45.96%)
Claire Holmes (C) 12,295 (34.34%)
Arnold Warneken (Green) 1,838 (5.13%)
Mike Jordan (ND) 1,503 (4.20%)
Dave Kent (Reform) 1,332 (3.72%)
Matt Walker (LD) 1,188 (3.32%)
Lab maj 4,161 (11.62%)
Electorate 80,159; Turnout 35,807 (44.67%, -27.00%)

2019:
C maj 20,137 (35.69%) – Turnout 56,418 (71.67%)
Adams (C) 33,995 (60.26%);
Rofidi (Lab) 13,858 (24.56%);
Macy (LD) 4,842 (8.58%);
Jordan (Yorkshire) 1,900 (3.37%);
Warneken (Green) 1,823 (3.23%)

 

[The39thStep]

This is the sort of thing that very few felt was possible . The first case of a ventriliquist holding two dummies

 

[Rob Ray]

That Green Party chap is being hilariously passive aggressive about having to wear a suit.

 

[platinumsage]

Amusingly, while Labour's busy backslapping itself about the Selby win, it appears they pulled out a considerably lower vote than Corbyn-era candidate David Bowgett in 2017.

View attachment 384046

View attachment 384048

Makes a bit of a mockery of the Graun's breathless suggestion based on today's results that "Labour is on course to rebuild the electoral coalition that previously brought it victory" tbh. When people say this is more about Tory voters not bothering they're 100% correct, something like 20,000 of them simply didn't turn up. Starmer's strategy is entirely reliant not on people wanting Labour, but on the Tories remaining abjectly unelectable.

This was a by-election, as is typical of by-elections turnout was a lot lower - 44.8% as compared to 74.1% in the 2017 general election. The fact Labour received only 14% fewer votes this time compared to 2017 doesn't say what you think it says about Corbyn and Starmer.

 

[Rob Ray]

But the Tories losing more than 60% does.

 

[pbsmooth]

the desperation of some people on here to knock a labour win is amusing.