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Re-opening Schools?

I don't think it's a separate issue. Use mitigations to buy time in order to vaccinate everybody, then continue with necessary mitigations and testing/supported isolation to drive the numbers down to the level where infection is not an inevitability. It's only inevitable here because the disease is being allowed to spread almost unhindered.

What's not sustainable is the current strategy, we are going to end up with a variant with much greater vaccine escape, and then we'll be back where we were in the previous waves.
 
Fruitloop said:
I don't think it's a separate issue. Use mitigations to buy time in order to vaccinate everybody, then continue with necessary mitigations and testing/supported isolation to drive the numbers down to the level where infection is not an inevitability. It's only inevitable here because the disease is being allowed to spread almost unhindered.

What's not sustainable is the current strategy, we are going to end up with a variant with much greater vaccine escape, and then we'll be back where we were in the previous waves.
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We don’t need more time to vaccinate everybody anymore. You could argue we need more time to decide whether to vaccinate 12-15 year olds, but by the time any of your proposed measures would have reduced the rate sufficiently, that decision will have been made.

Getting to a test and isolate stage like NZ isn’t feasible without stringent measures such as a lengthy new lockdown, and there’s no evidence that on balance that would be beneficial for children.

The emergence of a variant with much greater vaccine escape is unlikely. Even so, the likelhood of that happening is not materially affected but whatever restrictions we place or don’t place on schools.
 
This is just not correct. By allowing gigantic numbers of cases in a partially-vaccinated population we're exerting a huge selection pressure on the virus to overcome the obstacles to transmission that we've put in its way, whilst giving it trilions of opportunities to strike it lucky with a mutation that will allow it to do so. It's madness, that risks squandering the gains that the vaccines have brought us.

I have no idea why it's taken so long to make no meaningful decision on vaccination for teens, we are way behind the curve of countries that have been effective in dealing with the pandemic.

The irony is that taking an approach that is diametrically opposed to the one that NZ has taken has seen much longer and more stringent lockdowns that they have had, and really no period since the beginning of the pandemic where it has been possible to live in the way that we did before. And for this 150,000 people have died.
 
Badgers said:
Hate to be a misery but looking at the NI and Scotland number pre/post schools opening and that give some scale :(

That said, this week I have tested over 1000 sixth form students and only logged 9 positive tests.
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Yes I'd say the risk of a big spike in cases is there and on many peoples minds, but at the same time I do not make the assumption that we are certain to see that happen in England. And I havent seen signs of it in English data yet, although it will be another week before I start to make claims based on that.

I'll also point out that a big reason closing schools has an impact when trying to manage a bad pandemic is that schools being closed has a big effect on the number and frequency of contacts between adults. So its not just a question of transmission within schools themselves. That sort of transmission does happen but the scale of it may not be a key difference maker in whether a pandemic wave is under control or not.

I would not close schools at this stage. I would look at what other countries are doing with sensible mitigation measures in schools.

Certainly dont listen to shitheads who seek to write off concerns as being those of extreme weirdos. 'Pull yourself together' type sentiments from people with lousy pandemic track records are useless and should be dismissed. The return to a more normal sense of risk is a much messier affair than that and confidence-building efforts are delicate and take time. Indeed one of the reasons this governments desire to rush back to normal ends up being counterproductive is that this is not how faith is inspired, you dont get there by doing too little, too late, or by trying to write off concerns in a grubby manner.
 
Fruitloop said:
This is just not correct. By allowing gigantic numbers of cases in a partially-vaccinated population we're exerting a huge selection pressure on the virus to overcome the obstacles to transmission that we've put in its way, whilst giving it trilions of opportunities to strike it lucky with a mutation that will allow it to do so. It's madness, that risks squandering the gains that the vaccines have brought us.
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There are millions of current infections globally, our numbers are tiny, and the number of partially vaccinated children in our schools is much tinier still. Besides, it's unlikely the virus even has the capacity to overcome the vaccines in that way to the extent you worry about.
 
elbows said:
Anyone claiming that numbers here are tiny is absolutely full of shit.
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India has 209 million partially vaccinated people, the UK has 4.76 million.

The number of partially vaccinated people in the UK compared to the world is tiny.

If you think that being partially vaccinated creates a risk of escape mutations, the proportion of that risk caused by UK restrictions or the absence of them is tiny.
 
platinumsage said:
India has 209 million partially vaccinated people, the UK has 4.76 million.

The number of partially vaccinated people in the UK compared to the world is tiny.

If you think that being partially vaccinated creates a risk of escape mutations, the proportion of that risk caused by UK restrictions or the absence of them is tiny.
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Ah I thought you were talking about number of cases, sorry about that.

I think the concerns about escape mutants are less about partially-vaccinated people these days and more about escape due to number of fully vaccinated people combined with number of cases of infection.
 
elbows said:
Ah I thought you were talking about number of cases, sorry about that.

I think the concerns about escape mutants are less about partially-vaccinated people these days and more about escape due to number of fully vaccinated people combined with number of cases of infection.
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I was just responding to Fruitloop who raised partial vaccination in the context of controlling case numbers in schools. I don't think it should be a consideration.

I don't think worries about possible escape mutants should affect societal controls on the fully vaccinated either, but perhaps this is not the thread for that.
 
Yeah its not really on my list of concerns in this schools context.

Unknowns about long covid are the biggest pain in the arse for me at this stage, in regards childrens health and this virus. Some studies are now available but its still early days. And they have to be careful when reaching conclusions because very large numbers of teenagers typically report fatigue etc in non-Covid times.
 
Should have been more clear, it's the population that is partially vaccinnated. We're exposing vaccinated people to the virus thousand and thousands of times a day, pretty much daring it to find a way around the defenses. In that situation it almost certainly will, it's just a matter of time.
 
On the one hand, I think taking away measures in schools that were easy to implement was a stupid idea. On the other hand I'm not sure bubbles and masks did anything, well at least not in secondary schools where the children all mixed on the way to school and after.
I don't think I could cope with my children being sent home constantly again. Mostly because of the disruption to them and the impact on their mental health and socialisation. But also because as a parent, I had no rights to be at home when they were isolating; I even ended up owing my workplace money/hours at the end of the year because I had taken two days off when my child was sent home to isolate. There were times where they were a bubble of 90 and sent home when they barely knew the infected person. On the other hand, how close should a close contact be? If it's the person sitting next to you in class that's one thing, but once you start sending whole classes home, the education system for those children collapses as it becomes a revolving door of infection.
I just want my children at school. But looking at the number of staff off with Covid 19 already, I don't see how schools will be able to fully operate as there's going to be ongoing massive staff shortages.
There's no good solution to this is there.
 
Fruitloop said:
Should have been more clear, it's the population that is partially vaccinnated. We're exposing vaccinated people to the virus thousand and thousands of times a day, pretty much daring it to find a way around the defenses. In that situation it almost certainly will, it's just a matter of time.
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It's not "just a matter of time". It may be physically impossible for the virus to mutate to such an extent that it both evades vaccines to cause serious disease and death, and also retains its transmissiblity. In any case the likelihood of that happening is a function of the number of infections globally, and the UK is a small country.
 
platinumsage said:
As I said, if such questions were raised in other aspects of their lives where risks were similar, fear rather than caution would be the appropriate word.
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I am of the opinion that doctors are obliged to do no harm.
And in that context alone whoever is signing off on removing protections for children is 100% culpable if kids develop long covid and brain injury or organ damage after being exposed to covin in school.

Of course government will deny they got it in school. And its clear that over here the testing will stop for kids and all will be told that only friends out of school will be considered close contacts.
They are already saying to schools here that there will be no more sharing of info and asymptomatic kids will be going to school.

So..our numbers are now very high. Highest incidence in Europe.

And those unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated or those with poor vacc response are all to be thrown to the lions. Basically.
 
nagapie said:
how close should a close contact be? If it's the person sitting next to you in class that's one thing, but once you start sending whole classes home, the education system for those children collapses as it becomes a revolving door of infection.
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As the virus is airborne the risk is to everyone in the class. You could compare it to the spread of cigarette smoke if someone is smoking in the room - you might be worse off sitting next to the smoker but the smoke still gets everywhere.
 
zahir said:
As the virus is airborne the risk is to everyone in the class. You could compare it to the spread of cigarette smoke if someone is smoking in the room - you might be worse off sitting next to the smoker but the smoke still gets everywhere.
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Well exactly. So what's the solution then, children being constantly sent home from school to isolate, for the 3rd year in a row?

That's why there is no good solution. I don't blame parents who don't want to send their kids in, nor parents like me who do.
 
We are 18 months into pandemic mitigations, so talk of a 3rd year is strange to me.

The picture continues to evolve. There may be setbacks along the way, but gradually there is still some progress due to changing levels of population immunity from both infections and vaccination.

The very best way to reduce disruption to schools is to control the levels of prevalance more comprehensively in wider society. This government arent so interested in that, so childrens education has been disrupted more than it needed to be. This was especially obvious a year ago when the government were told for months by SAGE etc that they needed to keep a lid on community infections in order to allow more wiggle room for schools to operate. They decided to be ostriches about that and ultimately that resulted in a prolonged period of school closures again. The extent to which that pattern will repeat this school year is currently unclear. We have some advantages this time due to the changed immunity picture, but we are starting the term with far higher rates of viral prevalence at this point of the calendar in 2021 compared to 2020.
 
Sadly governments don't care about kids. They dont have a vote and they will run their stupid herd immunity experiment to the detriment of some of those kids...some of whom will grow up injured by this stupidity.

Make no mistake. This is about getting parents back to work out of the home and getting businesses open.
The government will hide the numbers of kids actually getting covid in school...because they will not record those figures.

It's an appalling lie.
 
platinumsage said:
It's not "just a matter of time". It may be physically impossible for the virus to mutate to such an extent that it both evades vaccines to cause serious disease and death, and also retains its transmissiblity. In any case the likelihood of that happening is a function of the number of infections globally, and the UK is a small country.
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Some further reading in the form of a paper from July, which is mostly looking at international vaccine issues but includes plenty on the domenstic situation and the numerous unknowns on this front.

International vaccination: Potential impact on viral evolution and UK public health, 21 July 2021
 
elbows said:
We are 18 months into pandemic mitigations, so talk of a 3rd year is strange to me.

The picture continues to evolve. There may be setbacks along the way, but gradually there is still some progress due to changing levels of population immunity from both infections and vaccination.

The very best way to reduce disruption to schools is to control the levels of prevalance more comprehensively in wider society. This government arent so interested in that, so childrens education has been disrupted more than it needed to be. This was especially obvious a year ago when the government were told for months by SAGE etc that they needed to keep a lid on community infections in order to allow more wiggle room for schools to operate. They decided to be ostriches about that and ultimately that resulted in a prolonged period of school closures again. The extent to which that pattern will repeat this school year is currently unclear. We have some advantages this time due to the changed immunity picture, but we are starting the term with far higher rates of viral prevalence at this point of the calendar in 2021 compared to 2020.
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I work in school years.

I know all of this but it's too late to fix the government's fuck up now.
 
elbows said:
We are 18 months into pandemic mitigations, so talk of a 3rd year is strange to me.
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We’ve just started the third school year.

Kids started Sept ‘19 - lockdown March 20.
Sept ‘20 - July 21 - full school year of covid measures and disruption.
Sept ‘21 - new school year starts
 
Badgers said:
Sisters primary school kids in Yorkshire went back yesterday. Now they have 15% of staff isolating :(
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Over here they are going to tell staff that they are not considered close contacts if a kid in class has covid.
Neither will the rest of the class be considered a close contact.
And unless you're symptomatic you will be going to school.
 
Fair enough regarding school years.

How long it goes on isnt really relevant to the key parameters anyway, which remain hospital pressure as a result of this pandemic virus. And the 'if not now then when?' brigade are therefore marching to a ridiculous beat. That shit is just used to pander to dull agendas that will not override the basic public health realities, no matter how hard they try.
 
And yes, childrens education and mental health are also part of basic public health realities. So I am not advocating having schools closed at this stage. I am advocating that we ridicule those who want to be pandemic ostriches and make bogus claims that now is the moment we can return to normality. That way just invites more strong measures to be forced upon everyone further down the line.
 
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